Calgary and the Kyle Turris Trade Rumors: Is There a Better Fit?
by ArikJames on Nov 3, 2011 9:32 AM PDT
in The Ministry of Features
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It's no secret Calgary has center lust. Anytime any center who theoretically has elite skills becomes even remotely rumored to be available, the message boards and local media (and much to my own sadness, blogs) work themselves into a lather, frothing at the mouths.
It's hardly a wonder either: the Flames are currently alternating between a shell of the player once known as Brendan Morrison and David Moss as the center between Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay. And that's not to mention the occasional usage of rookie C Roman Horak or the terrifying possibility of Olli Jokinen and Iggy playing together once again.
So when former 3rd overall pick Kyle Turris was linked with Calgary (as well as Ottawa, who seem to have a taste for first round prospects that steadfastly refuse to develop properly) in sign and trade rumors, it's hardly shocking that even this esteemed website felt the need to write on the topic yesterday.
But is Kyle Turris really the answer? Is he a better fit than, say, the aforementioned David Moss? Or how about Sam Gagner who's rumored to be available as well?
Everyone loves a former top ten pick- to say nothing of the fevered worship top 3 picks receive. Regardless of how good they are in the NHL (in Turris' case- not very), they have POTENTIAL. At some point in their junior career or college career, they did something special enough to be noticed. In Turris' case, it was scoring 121 points in 53 BCHL games during his draft year (2006-2007). He followed that up with 35 points in 36 games for UW Madison in the WCHA as a freshman.
Both of those seasons are solid, if somewhat unspectacular. His time in the NHL, however, has been somewhat less so. In 131 NHL games, he has 19 goals and 27 assists. He's played on the top line in Phoenix. He's been sent to the San Antonio Rampage- the Coyote's AHL affiliate- multiple times. And it's not like he wasn't given a chance to succeed: with the Coyotes he spent the majority of his time lining up with Scottie Upshall and Shane Doan. Not exactly Sedin-Sedin, but hardly a fourth line either.
At the end of the day, for some reason Kyle Turris feels like he isn't being given a chance to succeed in Phoenix- which is simply not true. What's worse, is the advanced metrics back this up: he started in the offensive zone 66% of the time. Those are Sedin numbers, and for a young player they show two things: the first being that the coach simply wants him to score, the second that the coach doesn't trust him on defense.
That latter issue is a rather large one, since as I pointed out in my "Elite Number One Center" article last season, defensive capability is key for a number one center. And from watching his brief time playing at the Kohl Center, I can assure you, it's not simply something Dave Tippet chose not to trust Turris with.
Clearly, Turris isn't the solution for the Flames. What about a familiar foe? One Mr. Sam Gagner?
Picked three places after Turris, Gagner has already had a pretty good career. In 296 games he has 59 goals, 115 assists, for 174 points. And while this numbers hardly wow you, it's worth noting that he's been on some terrible Oilers teams with terrible linemates. Last he year most frequently played between Linus Omark and Magnus Paajarvi. Not exactly the ideal place to succeed. This season? MPS again, but with Eric Belanger.
With a career high of 49 points (his rookie season), even accounting for said horrible linemates, Gagner isn't a player who will set scoring charts on fire. But four seasons of 40+ points at the age of 22 speak of at least some offensive ability.
Am I saying the Flames need to run out and acquire Sam Gagner? Not at all. There's a lot of issues with Calgary that acquiring one center won't fix. But if Jay Feaster feels the urge to acquire a center who's suddenly finding himself without a place on his team (Turris because he's a fool and Gagner due to the rise of Nugent-Hopkins and the fact that Horcoff isn't going anywhere), I'd suggest he look within the province before the Flames make another poor deal with the desert dwellers for an overrated center.
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Yes. Turris is a better option.
by Jeremywilhelm on Nov 3, 2011 9:55 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
LOL
Well this should get a conversation going…
Seriously Arik, the trade has not even been made and you are throwing Turris to the wolves. Not even wanting him. You don’t know the contract cost and you do not even know the trade details. Can you not at least imagine a good scenario?
Surely you would endorse a fantasy trade of Stajan for him or a 1.5 million 1 year term contract cost or maybe you wouldn’t.
And why would you ever mention the term “Elite Center” in the same sentence with Turris. I would not even use that term with RNH yet with his hot rookie start. But Turris could easily surpass everyone on the Flames roster now for that role.
A 22 year old 3rd overall pick? Has he done anything of note – nope. Is it risky to get a unproven player – yep but sometimes these work.
As per this Calgary Herald article if Feaster was not investigating Turris given the Flames situation he would not be doing his job.
And what is this jump to the Defense of Phx? I’d have to search for the link but Turris has stated the Phx trap system does not maximize his potential or utilize his skills. He feels he is forced to play a system that doesn’t use him properly. He doesn’t want to play there. Too bad for them, we had an even worse taste of it with Tim Erixon, at least Turris signed an entry level deal and gave them 3 years.
Put that kid between the passing skills of Tangs and the skills of Iggy and toss all your old data which you are basing your argument on out the window.
Sometimes Arik I wonder if you are a
stealthy southern hockey radical who has infiltrated the Flames ranks… ; ) – I jest, I know you read the harsh and logical criticisms of Kent Wilson and company at Flames Nation but I e-mail Kent on those as well.
When the logical numbers drain the hope from you totally as a fan, it is time to get the calculators put away stat… : )
Love Kent. Great writer and smart guy. But sometimes he gets so wrapped up in stats that he can’t see anything else. Both Turris and Backlunds stats are based on such small sample sizes and come out of different situations that to continue to say one is better than the other is silly at this point.
Turris has alot of skill. He has been developed poorly and has little confidence, but the few rumes you do see his flashes of skill, they are damn impressive. To not take a chance on that at an acceptable price would be stupid. No, you dont trade Iginla, Gio, Kipper or maybe Backlund for him, but anyone else movable is fair game. And that includes any prospect currently in abbotsford.
by Jeremywilhelm on Nov 3, 2011 10:17 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Kent is probably the best Flames writer there is out there. I don’t know of anyone better, if you do let me know. His 6 part series deconstructing the D Sutter tenure was friggin brilliant. Mandatory reading for all Flames fans imo.
But the stats can get too heavy. I see the value of them of course but they just are not the end all and be all. I think you have to see beyond the numbers sometimes in both tone and theme.
I e-mailed him once on why he seems to write with the expectation the Flames compete with the best teams in the NHL. His response, logical as ever, well they spend to the Cap therefore they should perform with the best.
Personally I think you expectations should match your team regardless of Cap and I don’t think anyone for the last several years could say the Flames are anything better than a team in transition at best.
Not to be pendantic, but why would you expect anything less from your team than competing with the best?
Oh let me tell you a story of the 7 year dark age… let me tell you a story of the threat of not having any NHL hockey at all… Of course I am old enough to remember when Calgary didn’t even have a NHL team.
I’m looking behind us now. ..across the count of time . .down the long haul, into history back. In the end what were the start. It’s Pox-Eclipse, full of pain! And out of it we were birthed ..from crackling dust and fearsome time. It were full-on winter ..and Mr. Dead chasing them all. But one he couldn’t catch. That were Captain Walker.
Actually, I think I’ll attempt to write an amusing post on it for a non-game day… : )
I’ve been through dark ages. You know who my other sports teams are? Charlotte New Orleans Hornets, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Green Bay Packers.
I suffered through some awful years with each team. When Muggsy Bogues is your best player, you’re an awful team (though I DO love Muggsy Bogues). When you can draft in the top ten every year in baseball, yeah…that’s pretty rough. And let’s not forget Favre in the early 2000s. Those years are the reasons he has the record for most career interceptions. But you know what? I always expected the best. You want your team to win a Cup, championship, Lombardi trophy, World Series, what have you, not merely make the playoffs.
I expect a team to either compete for a Stanley Cup, or build towards a team that’s capable of competing for the Stanley Cup. Anything less in a market other than Columbus, Florida etc is absolutely unacceptable to me as a fan of the team. Right now, the Flames are neither.
and haven’t been since 2005-2006. With proper management of assets this team would have re-tooled and been a major player in the NHL again. But, Sutter effed that all up and Feaster is following in his footsteps. The current Flames organization is functioning as a profitable business and as long as it continues to do so, having a mediocre team will be A-OK to Ken King and co.
I dunno, I think the team was a contender in 08-09. But for a bit of bad luck I think the Flames would have taken the division and gotten a much better playoff seeding that year. Instead we hit the one team that utterly had our number that year.
Although I agree with your post above last. I refuse to have any standards that accept mediocrity as acceptable.
It is not accepting mediocrity, it is being realistic. I lived through the dynasty eras of the Habs, Islanders, Oilers – you simply have to be realistic.
The Flames have a ton of work to do. This kind of move for Turris is getting a young player and 3rd overall pick. Can he bust, sure, but so can your pick if you finish in the basement of the NHL.
Feaster should be given a few years to right the ship that Sutter built. A lot of the issues we see today are still the remnants of Sutter’s team. If he wants to roll the dice on Turris, so what? The team gets younger and perhaps the kid pulls it together, perhaps not…
I think you have me confused with someone else… I want Turris but only at the right price (AKA a price that matches more what he is and less what he could be).
And I think you misunderstand the bit about accepting mediocrity, I was referencing this…
I expect a team to either compete for a Stanley Cup, or build towards a team that’s capable of competing for the Stanley Cup.
and I think that’s absolutely true, I insist that any team I support not consider mediocre to be “good enough”. I can’t realistically insist that the team be perpetual Stanley Cup contenders but when they’re not I can insist that I feel as if they’re at least working towards that goal.
Oops, I replied to you when I should have replied to Scott’s post.
Anyway, I quite liked your trade proposal for Turris in the other article. I thought that made very good sense for both teams.
I don’t know how old you are but imo when GMs transition in you have this window of time. A few years where I think you have to give them a pass. I did it for Risebrough even, D Sutter was odd because he came in and had success right away. That is not what should happen.
Feaster is transforming the team, we have to give him till at least next season imo to see how it all shakes out.
I should also clarify, I have no problem with them wanting to trade for Turris and for the right price I believe he’s a welcome acquisition, no doubt. I also agree that GMs should be given several years to put in their system and build a team their way… but, I do not believe in Jay Feaster, not even a little bit so I hope he doesn’t get that time because it’s just time working backwards IMO.
08-09 was probably the second best flames team ever constructed, and certainly the best I’ve ever seen.
by Justin Azevedo on Nov 3, 2011 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I just about spit my water all over my computer screen when I read this JA. But, I realize you don’t have a ton of good years to compare it too.
since 91, there hasn’t been a better one. I dunno
by Justin Azevedo on Nov 3, 2011 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
131 games is hardly a small sample size. Especially given that he didn’t do anything special in junior hockey (when he wasn’t even in the CHL) or college.
The essence of Turris’ case is the system in Phx. I’ll try and find the link. He thinks he is a square peg in a round hole there which is why he wants out so desperately, he believes he is stifled.
True or not, I don’t know but that is his perspective…
It might be a trap system, but with 66% of his starts coming in the offensive zone, he’s not being asked to participate in the trap really.
In a trap team everyone plays the trap. He may start in the O-zone but if he loses the draw you can bet he is taking a on-ice position he may not want to.
You can still generate offense from that though. Look at Parise’s stats. Or Elias. The trap isn’t the reason Turris has shit stats. Turris is the reason Turris has shit stats.
And Turris has always been unhappy in Phx leading to Turris weak game. Happy Turris in Calgary means better Turris stats. We don’t know the future.
And Parise is crap this year in Jersey, I know, I foolishly drafted him in one of my hockey pools, had I known they were going to force him to play C I would have passed.
How you use a player matters. I would love to put the Sedins in Phx and show you what I mean with their comparable high O- zone starts but I can’t. I can assure you their scoring stats would plummet.
Heck I can’t even recall a player in Phx ever cracking 30 goals in the last 10 years. Maybe Doan did one year.
Sure, if the option is Turris for Stajan, sign me up. But let’s be realistic here. That’s not going to happen. It’s simply not.
The whole point of this article wasn’t to say “TURRIS IS THE WORST LET’S NOT TRADE FOR HIM EVERRRRR”
No, it was to say we shouldn’t trade anyone of value for him, and if we do want to trade someone of value, let’s do it for a return of value.
All things considered- Gagner is better. Gagner is rumored to be available. Gagner is a proven NHLer at only 22, and he has the potential to produce well offensively in the right situation.
And as far as the whole “there’s more to hockey than stats” argument goes- I’d just like to point out one thing: Gagner has played on awful teams with awful linemates and hasn’t complained publicly once. Turris is on a good team with good linemates but feels entitled to a trade because the system is ruining his offensive capabilities or some nonsense (doesn’t seem to be hurting Hanzal this year…). Guess who’s probably a better teammate?
Fair enough but Tambs is a clown to trade with. I personally don’t think he is capable of making a fair trade, guy wants to hammer the other team and “win” the trade. It will come back to haunt him later as he will struggle to tweak the Oilers to the final stage and other GMs will remember that Ryan Smyth deal.
For better or worse Phx is in a vulnerable position and the optics make it look like the better deal can be had there. I strongly suspect the more realistic one can be, given the situation. Tambs certainly doesn’t feel any need to move Gags does he? You have to look to what the market offers, that is being realistic.
You also have to look at the surplus situation the Flames are sitting on. They have too many players, they should be shipping someone, so shipping Bork plus Smith is fine for Turris and a Aucion or Rozsival to eat Cap back. Parllex’s trade proposal, just fine with me.
With that deal and with the NHL as owners of the Yotes it makes sense in lowering Cap and player costs keeping the team attractive to a prospective new owner AND instantly making the Yotes a better team this season.
Turris is no longer on a good team this season. Phx is significantly weaker this year and their hand is forced. You take advantage as a GM just like Sather did to us.
Maloney is much more likely to give up Turris for something like Bork + Smith if he is gaining Cap and getting a player who fits his team. You know Bork played a lot with Langkow.
We can’t be in this Catch 22 situation. Advocating a massive rebuild which will involve higher picks (although all unproven) and high risk but resist current trades to access these same higher picks (if unproven through a few NHL seasons) and insist only on trades with no risk.
You can not call a NHL career on a 22 year old player, you simply can’t.
I am not advocating giving Turris a long term high end contract. I am also not calling him elite by any stretch but
Here’s the thing with Gagner… he’s with Edmonton, which isn’t a “boo shelbyville” statement… if we do want to trade someone of value I’d rather not trade that value to one of the teams that we’re (in theory) competing with most often for playoff seeding. If we could rob them blind then sure but otherwise I’d rather trade out of the division.
I have not read the comments yet so my opinion may change afterwards but I pretty much completely agree with Arik
You have NHL level players sitting in the press box, no clear #1 C and you are not willing to take a chance on a 22 yr old 3rd overall pick, well, I don’t know what to say.
You guys confuse me. If a fair trade is there why do you not take it?
What is kind of blowing my mind this time around in the “negative vs positive” is that the trade has NOT even been made. We have no idea what may or may not even be exchanged or the cost of Turris’ potential contract – yet we are already crapping all over the very idea of getting Turris?
Putting out ideas to trade with Edmonton which has only happened ONCE in 30 years is more realistic and practical as an alternative?
It is bizarre to me to read advocating the Flames falling to the absolute basement of the NHL, getting youth and rebuilding from nothing through high picks (which are all unproven and may bust like they did in the 90s) yet you will not ship a surplus NHL player today who can’t fit on the roster for a young high risk prospect who may also bust?
You talk about being realistic above, but here you talk as though shipping Hagman or Stajan for Turris is realistic. It’s not. If anything we’ll see a guy like Bourque get traded for Turris, and that’s absolutely losing value- not gaining it. Bourque is not an extra body.
As far as trading with Edmonton- it’s a different day and age.
Again Mitch, you’re missing the point of this article. If we’re trading someone of value for a young center with with offensive potential, let’s trade them for a player of known quality: Gagner.
A trade with Edm just isn’t going to happen. Even if I accept your premise of Gags>Turris it just isn’t realistic imo to envision that trade given the two teams.
I don’t pimp too many trade rumors but this one was strongly confirmed from ESPN which is why I could not resist.
I send Bork easy.
Without even looking at anything number related what I see with Rene Bourque is a highly skilled player with a great shot and great speed and with his head in the clouds half the time.
I think he needs to play with a player like Langkow to perpetually keep him in the game.
He is 29 and flat out today he is significantly better than Turris BUT he has no future in Calgary long-term. This is rebuild in stride time. Comparable wingers are there but young C are not.
Turris is a risk, no way around it. He does not have as much value today but it is high risk, high reward if it works. I pull the trigger on the deal. Do the Flames get weaker today, yep but they might be stronger tomorrow…
These are the kind of moves you should endorse, these are rebuild moves for youth… I’m actually surprised at your take on it…
tbh, I would probably do a bork+nemo for turris+2nd. mostly because I don’t think nemo’s very good and bork’s contract is abhorrent
by Justin Azevedo on Nov 3, 2011 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Turris was drafted high in the first place
I know I’m late to the argument, but from what I remember it was a shock that Phoenix took Turris 3rd overall in the first place. When we talk about him being Top 3 talent, he’s probably more like 7th-10th overall talent taken a bit too high.
I’m with Arik. I have no problem with Turris for dirt cheap, but I’d much rather have a guy like Gagner who has actually proven a certain level of performance.
That said, if the Flames could grab Turris for a spare parts or another risk (Stajan, Hagman) that would be fine. I just think Phoenix will ask a fairly high price for him.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
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