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Know When To Fold ‘Em

Why It’s Okay If The Flames Miss Out On Eichel

Buffalo Sabres v New York Islanders Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

The tension. Sweaty brows. Quiet confidence. Sometimes, loud confidence. Hedging your bet or calling a bluff.

In the game of poker, it’s called going “all in”; Mortgaging some of the now, and some of the future, because you truly believe what you hold in your hand is better than it might be later, and certainly better than what all your competition has now.

In the game of hockey, at least on the managerial side, it typically refers to a team cutting some combination of prospects, picks, up-and-coming and/or already-there talent to land the proverbial “big fish”. That one player that puts an already achieving team even further over the top, that will cement a glorious legacy of hoisting silver. The guts to make the move will pay off for glory. One single move to capture a legacy; To build a legend.

And when we illustrate it like that, it’s easy for fans and teams alike to suddenly get a gleam in their eye. To look skyward and dream, “Yes! Go for it! Doesn’t matter what it costs! This. Could. Be. It!”

It’s easy to have wistful memories of the highly-touted acquisitions of names like Bourque, Gartner, or Blake. The excitement of seeing a franchise scoop the big name from everyone else who was chasing it, and go “all in”. Except that, as we’re about to see, it almost never works out that way.

It’s easy to forget that not all those moves worked out, and some of them not right away, if at all. In fact, in the last decade, when it comes to trade deadline moves and July 1st free agency signings, the list of those that have sent a sought after player to a team that won within the next few years is substantially shorter than the list of names that didn’t.

Deadline Traded Players Who Won With Their New Team (2):

2015- D Kimmo Timmonen to Chicago Blackhawks, who won the Stanley Cup that season

2011 F- Jeff Carter to the Los Angeles Kings, who won the cup with LA three years later

Deadline Traded Players Who Didn’t Win With Their New Team (10):

2013- F Jarome Iginla from the Calgary Flames to the Pittsburgh Penguins

2013- F Marian Gaborik from the New York Rangers to the Columbus Blue Jackets

2014- G Ryan Miller from the Buffalo Sabres to the St. Louis Blues

2014- F Martin St. Louis from the Tampa Bay Lightning to the New York Rangers

2016- C Eric Staal from the Carolina Hurricanes to the New York Rangers

2017- G Ben Bishop from the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Los Angeles Kings

2017- D Kevin Shattenkirk from the St. Louis Blues to the Washington Capitals

2018- D Ryan McDonough and F J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers to Tampa Bay Lightning

2018- F Paul Stastny from St. Louis Blues to Winnipeg Jets

And when it comes to the flurry of free agency signings on July 1st every year, of all the names that have been banded about, only three notable names that signed and stayed with their new squads hoisted Lord Stanley’s chalice. And we have to reach back even further than the last ten years to find them!

2014- F Marian Gaborik signed by LA, who won the championship that season

2007- Petr Sykora signed by Pittsburgh Penguins, won Cup two years later

2006- Dominik Hasek, signed by Detroit Red Wings, won cup two years later

So the numbers don’t really back up that landing a big fish in the offseason, or at the trade deadline, is all that it’s cracked up to be. There are teams that handed out free agency money or mortgaged their future to eventually NOT win. And yet, handing out a big chunk of cap space in July or shipping out picks-prospects-players in Feb-March is absolutely common practice that is almost expected of all remotely competitive teams, and essentially demanded by fans.

As over the last few years the Calgary Flames’ contending window has opened, and opened wider by the season, it’s hard to miss the “Yes! Go for it! Doesn’t matter what it costs! This. Could. Be. It!” shouting come free agency and trade deadline time. It’s also sometimes even harder to miss the grumbling, and sometimes downright anger, from fans when those dates pass by and the Flames don’t pick up that “big fish”. General Manager Brad Treliving has been shrewd to make moves that haven’t cost him heavily in the pick-prospect-player department, but at that price it has consistently meant the biggest names in the pool have slipped through his fingers.

So in the end, is it the right call? To check, or to go all in? Linked to generational play Jack Eichel, it’s yet another big name that the Flames could go all-in on.

Let’s take a look back at the biggest moves of the last few years inside Calgary’s “win window”, and see how many of them, so far, have actually paid off for the GM’s that dared to put all their chips in the middle.

NHL: San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Acquisition: Erik Karlsson traded to San Jose Sharks, 2018

The Cost At The Time: F Chris Tierney, D Dylan DeMelo, F Rudolfs Balcers, the rights to unsigned draft pick F Joshua Norris, and included at the time several picks that were conditional: San Jose’s first-round draft pick in the 2019 or 2020 NHL Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, a conditional pick in the 2021 NHL Draft and a conditional pick in the 2022 NHL Draft (San Jose’s own first-round pick)

The Result: In his first playoff stint with SJ Karlsson played 19 games with 16 points, but they wound up losing the Conference Final to the St. Louis Blues in six games. Karlsson’s 2019 contract made him the highest-paid defenceman in league history and the third highest-paid player in the league at the time, as he eats up a $11.5 million cap hit annually until 2027 (with a 7 year NMC until 2026-27). By adding him and not winning in “win now” mode, the Sharks have fallen off a cliff competitively and are staring a boat anchor of a contract in the face for a long time, and gave up a pretty big haul to do so. It’s early into EK65’s extended contractual tenure, but if the ship keeps sinking in the Shark Tank, it doesn’t look like the right move at the time being.

NHL: New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Acquisition: John Tavares signed by Toronto Maple Leafs, 2018

The Cost At The Time: A seven year $77 million free agent contract, with a No Move Clause for the entirety of the contract and an $11 million annual cap hit

The Result: In his first blue and white playoff round, JT put up five points in seven games as the Leafs dropped another first round seventh game to the Boston Bruins. When signed, Tavares’ contract alone ate up a whopping %13.84 of the Maple Leafs cap spending, so that’s a tough pill to swallow for not getting out of the first round. Here’s another large and long contract that carries a NMC that didn’t win in it’s first year, and still hasn’t won as the Leafs continually deal with not getting out of the first round. Again.

Vegas Golden Knights v Montreal Canadiens - Game Six Photo by Francois Lacasse/NHLI via Getty Images

The Acquisition: Mark Stone

The Cost At The Time: F Oscar Lindberg, prospect Erik Brannstrom, 2020 Second Round draft pick (originally belonging to Dallas)

The Result: One of the most sought after names in recent years, the buzz around Stone as an analytics and possession darling was everywhere. While the Vegas Golden Knights were in the Stanley Cup Final the previous season, after acquiring Stone and doubling down on their finals appearance, they regressed to lose in the first round in seven games to San Jose. Stone was eventually named team captain, but they’ve since also lost the semi-finals to Dallas, and Conference Finals to Montreal. At 8 years and $76 million dollars spread out to $9.5 million a year with a NMC throughout, there’s room for this contract to turn out fine if Vegas remains competitive in the infancy of their NHL tenure. But again, no move clauses and double-digit cap hits can look like albatross’ faster than anyone would like to think.

NHL: Dallas Stars at Arizona Coyotes Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Acquisition: Taylor Hall traded to Arizona Coyotes, 2019

The Cost At The Time: 2020 conditional first-round draft pick, a conditional 2021 third-rounder, prospects F Nate Schnarr, F Nick Merkley and D Kevin Bahl

The Result: While not technically a deadline deal, had the Coyotes not jumped out ahead of the curve, Hall certainly would’ve been the frontrunner name when that time came around. The deal panned out so unspectacularily that after the Coyotes lost in the first round to Colorado, they publicly announced they would not be re-signing Hall. He has since signed as a UFA in Buffalo, and after one season there was traded to Boston with Curtis Lazar for Anders Bjork and a second-round draft pick at the 2021 Draft. Neither team won a championship with him, either.

So with a bit of history on their side, three of the four big name acquisitions carry double digit cap percentages, nearly a decade each in term, and no move clauses. As players age and cores disperse, these things can look like real problems. Of course, actually winning a championship on a gamble move will make everyone forget about the numbers. But that hasn’t happened yet for them or their teams since.

For context, the Flames have no players with a contract in double digit years for term, or double digits as far as average annual value goes, and no players that take up double digits of a cap hit percentage.

Is that playing it safe? Yes.

Is it always exciting? No.

Do you need a player who demands that kind of contract to win? Maybe.

With a new Coach, do the Calgary Flames have enough in their hand to capture some serious winnings? Or should they have make that big splash for Jack Eichel and put it all on the table?

Recent history tells us that grabbing a big name actually rarely works. But, the ones that did will be remembered forever, and will always be called champions. Nobody remembers second place, so the allure of “all in” will never go away.

But “all in”, in poker much more than hockey, is a rare move. The majority of the time, winners have enough in the hand you’ve been dealt to make something happen. Play your cards right, and you’ll be remembered forever, and be called champion.

They’ll always remember first place, and when you get there, they’re gonna care way less about how you got there than the fact that you did.