If i were Brad Marchand I’d also want to stare longingly into Mikael Backlund’s eyes. Especially after seeing him put up another amazing performance. Anyways it’s time for stats, yesterday I looked into “Score & Venue Adjusted” (SVA) metrics to try and understand them. Putting it into more simple terms SVA curves what a player does on the ice, giving some actions more/less importance depending on the score. So a shot attempt would create a different xGF value depending on if a team were up 1 goal than if they were down 1 goal. It’s really fascinating stuff and @IneffectiveMath has an article up on it over at HockeyViz.com.
The Flames as a team put up a regular 5v5 CF% of 44.57%, but when you look at the SVA number (which weighed different actions differently as the score changed) their 5v5 SVA CF% was 49.7%. It really made what would typically look like a non-dominant game the Flames lucked out on seem closer. At 5v5 the Flames had 40 SCF%, 42.86 HDCF%, and xGF% of 45.63%. When you adjust for score and venue the Flames had 44.49 SCF%, 47.9 HDCF%, and xGF% of 50.54%. Really brings what would seem like a game where the Bruins had the puck more often closer, especially when it comes to expected goals for. Fascinating stuff i’m sure to share more with everyone as i learn all i can about it. (Today’s stats will all be conveyed in the SVA format)
Corsi King - 3M 2.0, i hope that catches on, were doing the things that make us Flames fans rave about them. Both Andrew Mangiapane and Matthew Tkachuk led the way with a 5v5 SVA CF% of 64.72%. Both of our new guys on D had positive Corsi games, so welcome Derek Forbort (51.10%) and Erik Gustafsson (53.65%).
Corsi Clown - as per usual, Michael Stone (38.74%) had a brutal game, bested only by the pitiful performances iced by Dillon Dube (28.79%) and Derek Ryan (27.25%). My observation about the Flames 3rd line being good every 3 out of 5 games has come crashing down as they have been, well anything but decent, let alone good.
Taken by Chance - Ryan and Dube had a SCF% (Scoring Chance For percentage, in case you’re a new reader) of just 13.21%. Dube especially has been receiving a lot of praise online lately and it’s not even remotely due. He’s been defensively unreliable and more often than not allows more quality against than he creates. That can be a survivable trait in a system where offence is promoted, but Geoff Ward is a defence first coach and so far Dube has not meshed well in his system.
The 3M line led the forwards and Noah Hanifin (55.01) led all rearguards. Ever since being released from having to play with Travis Hamonic, Hanifin has taken off performing like the Top 4 defenceman we have envisioned and hoped he’d become. Albeits a small sample size, but upon Giordano’s return (He’s been activated off the IR) the Hanifin-Andersson pairing should remain intact.
xGF% - These sections can get repetitive when a certain line has a bad game. Ryan and Dube bottom out here as well. Sam Bennett (45.64%) didn’t create much on his demotion to the 4th line, but still outpaced the 3rd line by 20% points. Yes folks, the Lucic-Ryan-Dube line was horrible last night, despite whatever your eye test tells you. What I don’t get is I watch all the games as well and don’t notice these amazing stand out things fans point out on twitter. If you go searching for something to like there’s always something to find, is how i end up looking at those situations.
Game Flow -
Boston did control the puck more at even strength, and especially as the game went on. Geoff Ward’s team adopts a dump and chase style with even a 1 goal lead. Get the puck in deep and keep on the defensive side of the puck and you’ll do alright. It limits offensive creativity, but in games like this where the Flames capitalize on their chances it works.
Game Score - A man on a mission, Mikael Backlund (4.77) has been dominating ever since being put back in the middle with Matthew Tkachuk (4.22) and Andrew Mangiapane (1.96). This recent success of the Flames top 6 forwards could allow them to tinker with the lowest scoring line (in regards to game score) of Milan Lucic (-0.68), Dillon Dube (-0.86), and Derek Ryan (-1.07) and bring about potential consistency in their push for the playoffs.
Shot Heatmap -
Flames could have got closer to the net than the slot, but they took advantage of what they were given. The new look D arrangement didn’t allow for many deep slot chances against, which gave Rittich a fairly easy night. When Giordano comes back, and Stone comes out of the lineup against Nashville, look out. Opponents might have real trouble scoring now that we have reinforcements
In the Crease - NEW SECTION ALERT. This section will be largely dominated by Rittich and Talbot statistics and review, but I warn you, goalie stats are really an unknown black hole. Boston was only able to put 1.78 xGA on Dave, the OG Big Save Dave, to which he only allowed 1 against. (remember folks we just talk about 5v5 play here). Only 4 High Danger chances over 53:40 meant the Flames defence did a tremendous job limiting quality chances against giving Dave an “easy” night.
Player Spotlight - Derek Forbort - Everyone’s all hyped up on PP man Gustafsson so I want to take a look at how Forbort did in his first game as a Calgary Flame. CF% - 51.10, xGF% - 59.72, SCF% - 48.69, HDCF% - 55.86. He had the puck more than his opponents when it mattered, created more quality on the ice than he allowed against, but allowed a few more regular attempts but very few of high-danger classification. Let’s hope he keeps it up.
Flashalytic’s 3 Stars -
- Mikael Backlund
- Matthew Tkachuk
- Andrew Mangiapane
Yes i know i picked them all two games in a row, they deserved it. Keep it up boys.
(All stats compiled from NaturalStatTrick.com, Game Score from HockeyStatCards.com) // For all questions and inquiries message @Flash_33 on twitter.