Ducks vs Flames – Nothing Makes Sense BUT IT’S SO MUCH FUN (Stats Recap)

what if corsi is a lie and the goal of hockey games isn’t to win games by scoring goals but it’s to win games by winning games what if

— Mike FAIL (@mikeFAIL) March 12, 2015

All logic seems to escape the explanation of what the hell this team is. I mean we can list of several factors driving their success like third period shooting percentage, PDO, shot quality, and luck. All that’s valid and acceptable means for trying to understand the riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a Flames jersey.

All tucked away within that here at Matchsticks among the writers is a giggling excited optimism that maybe just maybe we can blow all our hard earned blogger money and personal money on playoff tickets. All that aside, I still cannot comprehend how the Flames won last night. I guess it's those damn intangibles or maybe they just worked really hard.

Let's try and decipher the confusion, the goals, and all that fun stuff!

• So that first period was primarily driven by three forwards: Matt Stajan, perfect hair forever Sean Monahan, and Johnny Gaudreau. All were realistically instrumental in overcoming the shot attempt differentials and crucial to making it 2-2. Monahan had three individual CF events, Stajan three as well, and Gaudreau had two.
• Within the confines of the second period and despite the three total goals scored it ended up being very dire. A total of seven events with Lance Bouma leading the way with two. The only goal scored in the period at even strength was Matt Stajan’s seventh of the season.
• The entire sequence is really exciting on a systems level. Billy Jaffe broke it down on Sportsnet last night with emphasis on Bollig’s role in the goal. To be honest, I agree. It doesn’t absolve him of his other mistakes this year but it adds to his count of good things this season which puts him at three.
• The gist of the goal goes as follows: Diaz has no outlet besides going around the boards. Bollig reads the play and heads up ice and CARRIES IN THE PUCK (YES MORE OF THIS), passes to rookie Michael Ferland who then feeds Stajan.
• The third period aka our period of dominance didn’t really do much due to the Ducks domination. Five shot attempts lead by Jiri Hudler who of course had a smart read on Mikael Backlund’s play. Well, it was a lucky bounce but a great example of reading the play again and being intelligent with your positioning. Zone entries are incredibly valuable for this team – especially carried in zone entries.

• Special teams played a factor in the shot attempt differentials from last night. Having two power plays in the first and two kills skewed numbers a bit but as we saw outside of the first Ducks’ PP; the Flames were great on the Dennis Wideman high-sticking penalty. Calgary had four shot attempts while in a 5v4 state in the first period. Wideman had two iCF events on those PPs.
• In the second period once again we saw Wideman with two iCF events. Gaudreau and Monahan had one each to round out the only other shot attempts.
• The one thing to keep in mind on special teams are the overwhelming volume of factors that go into success. Playing a person down or two; or three is a huge one. Is the player you’re killing a penalty for your best PKer? Are you playing an aggressive PK? Is your PP floundering due to systems and formation? So many things can be the difference maker here. Last night the Flames success and it’s a positive that needs some attention.

As part of the Mikael Backlund pieces I did yesterday, I wanted to include scoring chance data to illustrate the importance of scoring chances. I was also hoping prior to last night's game that Calgary would have a decent game with chances to go through and break these down further. We don't have much to look at but we'll see what we can find here.

• Hudler and Stajan lead the Flames in tracked scoring chances by the gamekeepers. The duo had three individual scoring chances. It showed in this poise and play on the ice.
• Monahan and Bouma had two iSC last night including that dangle that John Gibson somehow stopped. Gaudreau, Jooris, Colborne, Raymond, and Jones all had one each. Gaudreau spent more time last night being a thorn in Anaheim’s side than any other player.
• Though he didn’t have a lot of individual scoring chances, he was instrumental in setting up plays and allowing lanes/seams to open up.
• Overall with the way Anaheim controlled play and Calgary’s inability to generate shots, it’s skewed heavily in Anaheim’s favor.

Flames Even Strength Data from Natural Stat Trick

• Josh Jooris was rather sheltered last night. He only had 0:11 of PP time and 0:40 of PK time to go with his 9:52 at ES. He spent much of the night with Mason Raymond and Joe Colborne finding very limited success. His opposition numbers saw him find success against the likes of Ryan Kesler (71.43% CF/FF at ES) at 4:25 against and Cam Fowler (75% CF / 66.67% FF) at a meager 2:48. Outside of those, he broke even against Andrew Cogliano and Tomas Fleischmann but was below 50% in CF against much of the team.
• The top pairing — well I think they’re the top pairing for now of Kris Russell and Dennis Wideman had an up and down evening. They’re still being slaughtered in terms of shot attempts and it’s been trending this way prior and even more magnified since Giordnao’s injury. You can’t deny the productive numbers they’re putting up but it’s still a concern given their disastrous play in their own end.
• Backlund, Bouma, and David Jones had a bad start to the game with Jones’ giveaway to make it 1-0. It didn’t get easier for them as Backlund with the duo were a Bollig-level 21.43% CF and 12.5% FF. Backlund away from them was 75% CF and 100% FF though the time away is skewed heavily. The additional impact of sub-50% possession from the blueline impacted his night as well. Brodie and Mikael together were 40% though away Backlund was 25%.
• David Jones didn’t get his ice time cut much due to his gaffe and he wasn’t relegated to babysitting duty either but he also suffered from the contentious volume of shot attempts from Anaheim.
• The top line of Gaudreau, Monahan, and Hudler somehow survived and created chances in the time it had the puck which is a positive. The downside is going 11.11% against Kyle Palmieri for Monahan and Gaudreau; for Hudler he was 12.5% CF against Palmieri.
• Free TJ Brodie from Deryk Engelland. I promise things will be better for him if they do. With Engelland he was 18.75% CF and 25% FF. Without? 62.5% CF and 57.14% FF. In the five games since Gio’s injury he’s yet to be a positive possession guy or even about 40%. Scott Cullen of TSN mentioned it today in a video segment. Everyone notices it both with the eye-test and in terms of numbers with how Engelland impacts Brodie.
• Brandon Bollig’s assist on the Stajan goal was really nice. That’s about it. He has done three good things this season as of now. We’re all praying for a Bollig hat-trick. Low minutes with Ferland and Stajan and not really doing much besides well…anything.

Player Spotlight – Matt Stajan

Anyone who follows me on Twitter knows I have positive words for Stajan. I think he's a perfect option at the third line centre as of this season and provides better stability over the rookies. He isn't a top-six guy and the experiments from the Iginla trying him in that role didn't work.

This season for some bizarre reason despite him playing and dragging along nearly everyone with him, he's stuck on the fourth line. With rookies getting more ice time than him and media expectations of Stajan needing to "do more" it's a bit absurd. Last night he proved he can be a capable bottom six centre with ice time given and the right teammates…for the most part.

by Mike Pfeil