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Fixing the Flames Corsi - The Quest for 50 Percent

The Flames have not been great possession wise this year. Is that on the roster or something else?

Giordano is the key to the Flames possession in addition to the scoring.
Giordano is the key to the Flames possession in addition to the scoring.
Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the season the Flames possession numbers have been discussed in quite a fair amount of detail. The Flames are currently the third worst team in the league in Corsi percentage and really haven't improved much throughout the season. They've fortunately been able to rely on a high shooting percentage. The fact that they have had the highest penalty differential in the league hasn't hurt either. The result has been a team that's been good enough to be fourth in the Pacific Division and in control of their own playoff fate even though they've been quite streaky throughout the season.

All this is well and good, but how difficult would it be to get the Flames up to 50 percent? What changes would need to be made to the roster? Looking at the Corsi data gives a clear idea as to who is mostly responsible for the poor possession numbers. Note that this is the difference between the team's total Corsi and not relative Corsi.

With Without Difference
Player TOI CF CA CF% TOI CF CA CF% CF%
Drew Shore 10.7 15 7.9 65.50% 2600.9 2103.9 2599.9 44.73% 20.77%
Corban Knight 12.2 10.3 9.6 51.76% 2599.4 2108.6 2598.2 44.80% 6.96%
Mark Giordano 985.9 843.8 921.2 47.81% 1625.7 1275.1 1686.6 43.05% 4.75%
Mikael Backlund 320.9 278 292.1 48.76% 2290.7 1840.9 2315.7 44.29% 4.47%
T.J. Brodie 1018 857.2 958.8 47.20% 1593.6 1261.7 1649.0 43.35% 3.85%
Jiri Hudler 676.9 579.1 651.9 47.04% 1934.7 1539.8 1955.9 44.05% 2.99%
Paul Byron 640.2 529.7 604.9 46.69% 1971.4 1589.2 2002.9 44.24% 2.44%
Johnny Gaudreau 693.1 594.5 697 46.03% 1918.5 1524.4 1910.8 44.38% 1.66%
Sean Monahan 784.1 659.8 783.9 45.70% 1827.5 1459.1 1823.9 44.44% 1.26%
David Jones 548.9 470.2 558 45.73% 2062.7 1648.7 2049.8 44.58% 1.15%
Josh Jooris 484.7 398.4 473.6 45.69% 2126.9 1720.5 2134.2 44.63% 1.05%
Matt Stajan 359 291.5 349.4 45.48% 2252.6 1827.4 2258.4 44.73% 0.76%
Curtis Glencross 620.2 487.2 606 44.57% 1991.4 1631.7 2001.8 44.91% -0.34%
Sven Baertschi 137.5 101.2 126.2 44.50% 2474.1 2017.7 2481.6 44.85% -0.34%
Devin Setoguchi 125.9 103.5 130.5 44.23% 2485.7 2015.4 2477.3 44.86% -0.63%
David Wolf 14.3 8.9 11.3 44.06% 2597.3 2110.0 2596.5 44.83% -0.77%
Mason Raymond 383.8 320.7 405.4 44.17% 2227.8 1798.2 2202.4 44.95% -0.78%
Raphael Diaz 340.2 251.6 320.5 43.98% 2271.4 1867.3 2287.3 44.95% -0.97%
Brian McGrattan 50.7 45.1 58.3 43.62% 2560.9 2073.8 2549.5 44.86% -1.24%
Dennis Wideman 962.5 795.6 1028.6 43.61% 1649.1 1323.3 1579.2 45.59% -1.98%
Kris Russell 954.5 776.7 1005.2 43.59% 1657.1 1342.2 1602.6 45.58% -1.99%
Max Reinhart 31.2 26 35.1 42.55% 2580.4 2092.9 2572.7 44.86% -2.31%
Lance Bouma 578.9 438.1 592.3 42.52% 2032.7 1680.8 2015.5 45.47% -2.96%
Ladislav Smid 396.8 302.4 414.1 42.21% 2214.8 1816.5 2193.7 45.30% -3.09%
Michael Ferland 103.9 79.3 110.9 41.69% 2507.7 2039.6 2496.9 44.96% -3.27%
Brandon Bollig 381.8 274.2 386.6 41.50% 2229.8 1844.7 2221.2 45.37% -3.88%
Deryk Engelland 570.6 417.4 583 41.72% 2041.0 1701.5 2024.8 45.66% -3.94%
Joe Colborne 452.7 333.5 470.1 41.50% 2158.9 1785.4 2137.7 45.51% -4.01%
Markus Granlund 411.9 305.9 446.6 40.65% 2199.7 1813.0 2161.2 45.62% -4.97%

There's nothing there that's all that surprising. Shore and Knight have been great, but in the tiniest of sample sizes. At the bottom there are guys that have really dragged the team down, most notably Granlund who didn't look ready in his time in Calgary and may never be ready based on what the data shows. Does this mean that these players are the ones who have affected the Flames the most in terms of possession? To study that, it's better to take the Corsi +/- and adjust the without numbers by the time on ice with.

With Without Difference
Player TOI CF CA CF+/- CF CA CF+/- CF CA CF+/-
Mark Giordano 985.9 843.8 921.2 -77.4 773.3 1022.8 -249.5 70.5 -101.6 172.1
T.J. Brodie 1018 857.2 958.8 -101.6 806.0 1053.4 -247.4 51.2 -94.6 145.8
Jiri Hudler 676.9 579.1 651.9 -72.8 538.7 684.3 -145.6 40.4 -32.4 72.8
Paul Byron 640.2 529.7 604.9 -75.2 516.1 650.4 -134.3 13.6 -45.5 59.1
Mikael Backlund 320.9 278 292.1 -14.1 257.9 324.4 -66.5 20.1 -32.3 52.4
Johnny Gaudreau 693.1 594.5 697 -102.5 550.7 690.3 -139.6 43.8 6.7 37.1
Sean Monahan 784.1 659.8 783.9 -124.1 626.0 782.5 -156.5 33.8 1.4 32.4
Josh Jooris 484.7 398.4 473.6 -75.2 392.1 486.4 -94.3 6.3 -12.8 19.1
David Jones 548.9 470.2 558 -87.8 438.7 545.5 -106.7 31.5 12.5 18.9
Matt Stajan 359 291.5 349.4 -57.9 291.2 359.9 -68.7 0.3 -10.5 10.8
Drew Shore 10.7 15 7.9 7.1 8.7 10.7 -2.0 6.3 -2.8 9.1
Corban Knight 12.2 10.3 9.6 0.7 9.9 12.2 -2.3 0.4 -2.6 3.0
Sven Baertschi 137.5 101.2 126.2 -25.0 112.1 137.9 -25.8 -10.9 -11.7 0.8
David Wolf 14.3 8.9 11.3 -2.4 11.6 14.3 -2.7 -2.7 -3.0 0.3
Max Reinhart 31.2 26 35.1 -9.1 25.3 31.1 -5.8 0.7 4.0 -3.3
Curtis Glencross 620.2 487.2 606 -118.8 508.2 623.4 -115.2 -21.0 -17.4 -3.6
Devin Setoguchi 125.9 103.5 130.5 -27.0 102.1 125.5 -23.4 1.4 5.0 -3.6
Brian McGrattan 50.7 45.1 58.3 -13.2 41.1 50.5 -9.4 4.0 7.8 -3.8
Raphael Diaz 340.2 251.6 320.5 -68.9 279.7 342.6 -62.9 -28.1 -22.1 -6.0
Michael Ferland 103.9 79.3 110.9 -31.6 84.5 103.5 -18.9 -5.2 7.4 -12.7
Mason Raymond 383.8 320.7 405.4 -84.7 309.8 379.4 -69.6 10.9 26.0 -15.1
Ladislav Smid 396.8 302.4 414.1 -111.7 325.4 393.0 -67.6 -23.0 21.1 -44.1
Brandon Bollig 381.8 274.2 386.6 -112.4 315.9 380.3 -64.5 -41.7 6.3 -47.9
Lance Bouma 578.9 438.1 592.3 -154.2 478.7 574.0 -95.3 -40.6 18.3 -58.9
Joe Colborne 452.7 333.5 470.1 -136.6 374.4 448.2 -73.9 -40.9 21.9 -62.7
Deryk Engelland 570.6 417.4 583 -165.6 475.7 566.1 -90.4 -58.3 16.9 -75.2
Markus Granlund 411.9 305.9 446.6 -140.7 339.5 404.7 -65.2 -33.6 41.9 -75.5
Kris Russell 954.5 776.7 1005.2 -228.5 773.1 923.1 -150.0 3.6 82.1 -78.5
Dennis Wideman 962.5 795.6 1028.6 -233.0 772.3 921.7 -149.3 23.3 106.9 -83.7

Looking at those who have affected the Flames with their play by volume of minutes played gives a clearer idea as to which individuals have hurt or helped the team the most. As expected, Giordano and Brodie are at the top of the list, but the surprise would be that the pairing of Russell and Wideman negate about one half of those gains. Expanding upon that, there are eight guys that drag down the possession numbers by 40 or more attempts while the rest are under 20.

The question then becomes how to negate the impact that these players have upon the team by minimizing their minutes played. As it stands, the Flames currently sit at 2118.9 Corsi attempts for and 2607.7 against for a -488.8 and a 44.8 percent Corsi for. Taking a look at what would need to be done to help fix that, a huge negative on the possession numbers has already been corrected with the swap from Granlund's minutes going to Backlund.

Prior Minus Markus Granlund's 411.9 mins. Plus Mikael Backlund at 411.9 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2118.9 2607.8 44.83% -33.6 41.9 2152.5 2565.9 45.62% 25.8 -41.5 2178.3 2524.4 46.32% 1.49%

Adding 1.49 percent in a single swoop is a pretty good improvement, but there's still more that can be done. The defense might be hard to fix because the Flames don't have much of anything in the pipeline, but there's plenty that can be done to the forwards. Colborne has a large amount of minutes and terrible possession numbers. They're on par with Bollig's, but actually hurt the team more because of the volume of minutes he receives. Those minutes could be replaced with Setoguchi's who's much better possession wise (though doesn't carry the score effects).

Prior Minus Joe Colborne's 452.7 mins. Plus Devin Setoguchi at 452.7 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2178.3 2524.4 46.32% -40.9 21.9 2219.2 2502.5 47.00% 5.1 18.1 2224.3 2520.6 46.88% 0.56%

That's an increase of .56 percent which isn't bad, but obviously not the level of increase that the Granlund and Backlund swap brought. In addition to that, Setoguchi has far too many minutes now. His previous minutes could be relocated to Jooris to bump him up a bit. and also add some possession.

Prior Minus Devin Setoguchi's 125.9 mins. Plus Josh Jooris at 125.9 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2224.3 2520.6 46.88% 1.4 5.0 2222.9 2515.6 46.91% 1.6 -3.3 2224.5 2512.3 46.96% 0.09%

That barely moved the needle, but at least Devin Setoguchi isn't getting around 578 minutes. Jooris has been a bit of a possession carrier for the Flames and every little increase helps on the quest to 50 percent. There's still plenty of work to be done however. Brandon Bollig has been a possession sieve just like Colborne and his minutes need to go somewhere. His numbers could be added to Baertschi's to improve the numbers.

Prior Minus Brandon Bollig's 381.8 mins. Plus Sven Baertschi at 381.8 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2224.5 2512.3 46.96% -41.7 6.3 2266.2 2506.0 47.49% -30.4 -32.5 2235.8 2473.5 47.48% 0.51%

That added a little over half a percent on to the Flames possession numbers bringing them up to 47.48 percent so things are getting warmer, but that still leaves a lot of ground to the 50 percent goal and the possession nightmares are mostly used up as far as forwards are concerned. There are enough moves that can be made to help improve them. For the next demonstration, Stajan's minutes will be swapped with Bouma's.

Prior Minus Lance Bouma's 578.9 mins. Plus Matt Stajan at 578.9 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2235.8 2473.5 47.48% -40.6 18.3 2276.4 2455.2 48.11% 0.4 -17.0 2276.8 2438.2 48.29% 0.81%
Prior Minus Matt Stajan's 359 mins. Plus Lance Bouma at 359 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2276.8 2438.2 48.29% 0.3 -10.5 2276.5 2448.7 48.18% -25.2 11.4 2251.4 2460.1 47.79% -0.50%

An increase in .31 percent isn't terrible. It definitely puts the Flames closer to the 48 percent mark, but there's still ground to be made up. Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the Flames and his numbers can be increased. Glencross has been less stellar. Their minutes can be swapped to once again give a boost to the team. It's not a huge change, but it's an improvement.

Prior Minus Curtis Glencross's 620.2 mins. Plus David Jones at 620.2 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2251.4 2460.1 47.79% -21.0 -17.4 2272.4 2477.5 47.84% 35.6 14.2 2307.9 2491.7 48.09% 0.30%
Prior Minus David Jones's 548.9 mins. Plus Curtis Glencross at 548.9 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2307.9 2491.7 48.09% 31.5 12.5 2276.4 2479.1 47.87% -18.6 -15.4 2257.9 2463.7 47.82% -0.27%

Again, this was only a tiny increase designed to put Jones and Glencross closer to where they each belong. The increase is only .03 percent so it's hardly a necessary change and now the available moves are starting to get few and far between. The final move that will be made with the forwards is to switch Monahan with Hudler.

Prior Minus Sean Monahan's 784.1 mins. Plus Jiri Hudler at 784.1 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2257.9 2463.7 47.82% 33.8 1.4 2224.1 2462.3 47.46% 46.8 -37.5 2270.9 2424.8 48.36% 0.54%
Prior Minus Jiri Hudler's 676.9 mins. Plus Sean Monahan at 676.9 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2270.9 2424.8 48.36% 40.4 -32.4 2230.5 2457.2 47.58% 29.1 1.2 2259.7 2458.4 47.89% -0.47%

That move is about the last that can be made and doesn't even break 48 percent. A swapping of Gaudreau with Byron could be made, but it probably isn't worth splitting up Gaudreau and Hudler together as a pair. Moving on to the defense there's not a lot that can be done, but the first one to try would be the switching of Diaz and Wideman.

Prior Minus Dennis Wideman's 962.5 mins. Plus Raphael Diaz at 962.5 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2259.7 2458.4 47.89% 23.3 106.9 2236.4 2351.5 48.75% -79.4 -62.5 2157.0 2289.0 48.52% 0.62%
Prior Minus Raphael Diaz's 340.2 mins. Plus Dennis Wideman at 340.2 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2157.0 2289.0 48.52% -28.1 -22.1 2185.0 2311.1 48.60% 8.2 37.8 2193.3 2348.9 48.29% -0.23%

That's actually not a bad increase with the swap. .39 percent pulls the Flames up to over 48 percent and the team is getting warmer to the 50 percent goal. Russell is technically a wee bit worse than Wideman in the Corsi category, but in the interest of keeping (or putting) Diaz on his natural right hand side Wideman will be swapped instead. Now it's down to the wire as the only real swap that can be performed are with Engelland's minutes. Is it enough to put the Flames over the top?

Prior Minus Deryk Engelland's 315.3 mins. Plus Dennis Wideman at 315.3 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2193.3 2348.9 48.29% -58.3 16.9 2251.6 2331.9 49.12% 7.6 35.0 2259.2 2367.0 48.83% 0.55%
Prior Minus Deryk Engelland's 255.3 mins. Plus Ladislav Smid at 255.3 mins. CF DIFF.
CF CA CF% cf minus ca minus New CF New CA New CF% Added CF Added CA New CF New CA New CF%
2259.2 2367.0 48.83% -58.3 16.9 2317.5 2350.0 49.65% -14.8 13.6 2302.6 2363.6 49.35% 0.51%

There were many moves to be made, but unfortunately the quest for 50 percent comes up just short. Ultimately the team would have to make quite a few moves to re-arrange the rosters just to get close to that number. The lines would look a little something like this should the team rearrange the roster as previously mentioned:

Forward Scale
Left Wing Center Right Wing
Johnny Gaudreau Mikael Backlund Jiri Hudler
G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel
14.20 24.84 39.04 +1.7% +15.0% 15.33 26.83 42.16 +4.2% +0.6% 16.35 27.26 43.61 +3.2% +11.8%
David Jones Sean Monahan Paul Byron
G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel
15.69 22.41 38.09 +0.8% -8.4% 14.12 14.12 28.24 +1.3% -4.3% 9.61 15.37 24.98 +2.5% -4.8%
Sven Baertschi Josh Jooris Curtis Glencross
G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel
0.00 35.78 35.78 +0.8% +5.8% 12.69 12.69 25.38 0.0% +3.7% 9.92 19.83 29.75 +0.4% -9.7%
Mason Raymond Matt Stajan Devin Setoguchi
G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel G/1230 A/1230 P/1230 CFRel OZRel
28.84 9.61 38.46 -1.6% +8.2% 10.28 13.70 23.98 +0.2% -14.2% 0.00 0.00 0.00 +2.4% +3.6%
Defense Scale
Left Defence Right Defense
Mark Giordano T.J. Brodie
G/1640 A/1640 P/1640 CFRel OZRel G/1640 A/1640 P/1640 CFRel OZRel
6.65 28.28 34.93 +4.8% -7.4% 6.44 16.11 22.55 +3.9% -7.6%
Kris Russell Raphael Diaz
G/1640 A/1640 P/1640 CFRel OZRel G/1640 A/1640 P/1640 CFRel OZRel
1.72 13.75 15.46 -2.4% +8.7% 0.00 9.64 9.64 -0.3% +7.4%
Ladislav Smid Dennis Wideman
G/1640 A/1640 P/1640 CFRel OZRel G/1640 A/1640 P/1640 CFRel OZRel
0.00 4.13 4.13 -3.4% -6.2% 10.22 13.63 23.85 -2.2% +5.3%
Goalies
Jonas Hiller
Karri Ramo
All Data Five on Five Score Adjusted Data from War-On-Ice.com
Includes Top 450 Forwards in Minutes Includes top 240 Defensemen in Minutes

If the roster was rebalanced, it would likely only take a number four defenseman to balance out the possession numbers and break the 50 percent mark. There'd be plenty of pieces left over and some people would likely wind up down in the A.H.L. with some hefty contracts or perhaps they could be used to acquire that defenseman that would be required. The team would hardly be an offensive juggernaut, but it would be worth evaluating the change to the lineup.