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Flames Week 10 Power Rankings

A miserable performance over the past two weeks has the Flames outside of the top 15 for the first time this season.

Really?
Really?
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The bi-weekly power rankings are up and we'll look at them through a few different metrics.  For those not familiar, the metrics are:

R.P.I. .25 x teams' points per game (TPts/G) + .5 x opponents' points per game (OPts/G) + .25 x opponents' opponents' points per game (OOPts/G)
AdjPts teams' points per game x strength of schedule (S.O.S.)
S.O.S. 2/3 x Opts/G + 1/3 OOPts/G

The points system works like this:

Result Away Home
Regulation Win 2.14 1.86
Overtime Win 1.74 1.46
Shootout Win 1.34 1.06
Shootout Loss 0.94 0.66
Overtime Loss 0.54 0.26
Regulation Loss 0.14 -0.14

Without further ado, here are the rankings for the week.

R.P.I.

Rank Team TPts/G OPts/G OOPts/G R.P.I.
1 Chicago Blackhawks 1.284 1.031 1.005 1.088
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 1.324 0.998 1.019 1.085
3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1.163 1.059 1.049 1.082
4 St. Louis Blues 1.286 1.002 1.010 1.075
5 New York Rangers 1.052 1.067 1.039 1.056
6 Anaheim Ducks 1.253 0.983 1.003 1.055
7 New York Islanders 1.166 1.009 1.004 1.047
8 Detroit Red Wings 1.161 1.003 1.015 1.046
9 Tampa Bay Lightning 1.232 0.968 1.014 1.046
10 Nashville Predators 1.253 0.960 1.007 1.045
11 Montreal Canadiens 1.175 0.979 1.018 1.037
12 Vancouver Canucks 1.188 0.952 1.010 1.025
13 Ottawa Senators 0.832 1.101 1.033 1.017
14 Minnesota Wild 1.063 1.000 1.003 1.016
15 San Jose Sharks 1.130 0.945 1.003 1.006
16 Calgary Flames 0.970 1.019 0.996 1.001
17 Winnipeg Jets 1.046 0.969 1.011 0.999
18 Los Angeles Kings 1.025 0.974 1.005 0.994
19 Boston Bruins 0.928 1.004 1.008 0.986
20 Washington Capitals 1.000 0.967 0.998 0.983
21 Buffalo Sabres 0.695 1.101 1.024 0.980
22 New Jersey Devils 0.831 1.020 1.003 0.968
23 Florida Panthers 0.980 0.940 1.010 0.968
24 Philadelphia Flyers 0.827 1.012 1.000 0.963
25 Dallas Stars 0.790 1.024 0.995 0.958
26 Columbus Blue Jackets 0.800 0.996 1.000 0.948
27 Colorado Avalanche 0.684 1.055 0.998 0.948
28 Arizona Coyotes 0.692 0.972 0.993 0.907
29 Carolina Hurricanes 0.605 0.993 0.996 0.897
30 Edmonton Oilers 0.516 1.021 0.992 0.888

The mean comes out to be one so the Flames are still .001 points per game above average due to the wretchedness of some of the McDavid sweepstake finalists this year, but that's not where the team is used to sitting and obviously that's going to get much worse if they don't start actually winning their games.

Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points

Rank Team Pts/G S.O.S. AdjPts
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 1.324 1.005 1.331
2 Chicago Blackhawks 1.284 1.023 1.313
3 St. Louis Blues 1.286 1.005 1.292
4 Anaheim Ducks 1.253 0.990 1.240
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 1.163 1.055 1.228
6 Nashville Predators 1.253 0.976 1.223
7 Tampa Bay Lightning 1.232 0.984 1.212
8 New York Islanders 1.166 1.007 1.174
9 Detroit Red Wings 1.161 1.007 1.170
10 Montreal Canadiens 1.175 0.992 1.165
11 Vancouver Canucks 1.188 0.971 1.154
12 New York Rangers 1.052 1.057 1.112
13 San Jose Sharks 1.130 0.965 1.090
14 Minnesota Wild 1.063 1.001 1.064
15 Winnipeg Jets 1.046 0.983 1.028
16 Los Angeles Kings 1.025 0.984 1.009
17 Calgary Flames 0.970 1.011 0.981
18 Washington Capitals 1.000 0.977 0.977
19 Florida Panthers 0.980 0.963 0.944
20 Boston Bruins 0.928 1.005 0.933
21 Ottawa Senators 0.832 1.079 0.897
22 New Jersey Devils 0.831 1.014 0.843
23 Philadelphia Flyers 0.827 1.008 0.833
24 Dallas Stars 0.790 1.015 0.801
25 Columbus Blue Jackets 0.800 0.997 0.798
26 Buffalo Sabres 0.695 1.075 0.747
27 Colorado Avalanche 0.684 1.036 0.709
28 Arizona Coyotes 0.692 0.979 0.678
29 Carolina Hurricanes 0.605 0.994 0.602
30 Edmonton Oilers 0.516 1.011 0.522

Again the mean is one, so the Flames are now below .500 on strength of schedule adjusted points. Everything fell apart for the Flames over the past few weeks and they're now lobbying for a wild card spot instead of competing for one of the three in the Pacific. They now have a little over a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Sports Club Stats, but that's decreased considerably as you can tell from the chart below.

Flames Playoff Chances 12 17

Flames Playoff Chances as of 12/17

Movement and History

R.P.I.

Team Week 2 Week 4 Week 6 Week 8 Week 10 Movement Rank
New York Rangers 20 19 18 14 5 9 1
Chicago Blackhawks 12 13 15 6 1 5 2
San Jose Sharks 8 17 22 19 15 4 3
Columbus Blue Jackets 14 28 29 30 26 4 3
Washington Capitals 5 25 21 23 20 3 5
Philadelphia Flyers 16 16 19 27 24 3 5
Anaheim Ducks 6 2 12 8 6 2 7
Detroit Red Wings 9 9 11 9 8 1 8
Minnesota Wild 21 7 14 15 14 1 8
Buffalo Sabres 29 30 30 22 21 1 8
Toronto Maple Leafs 15 11 13 3 3 0 11
St. Louis Blues 13 5 6 4 4 0 11
Vancouver Canucks 22 10 10 12 12 0 11
Ottawa Senators 4 3 7 13 13 0 11
Dallas Stars 2 18 26 25 25 0 11
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 1 2 1 2 -1 16
Montreal Canadiens 7 15 4 10 11 -1 16
Winnipeg Jets 27 12 9 16 17 -1 16
Los Angeles Kings 19 20 16 17 18 -1 16
Boston Bruins 23 23 17 18 19 -1 16
New Jersey Devils 11 14 20 21 22 -1 16
Carolina Hurricanes 30 29 28 28 29 -1 16
Edmonton Oilers 28 26 27 29 30 -1 16
New York Islanders 18 21 8 5 7 -2 24
Arizona Coyotes 25 24 23 26 28 -2 24
Nashville Predators 3 6 1 7 10 -3 26
Florida Panthers 24 27 24 20 23 -3 26
Colorado Avalanche 26 22 25 24 27 -3 26
Calgary Flames 17 8 5 11 16 -5 29
Tampa Bay Lightning 10 4 3 2 9 -7 30

The Flames dropped the second highest number of spots in the rankings this week after dropping six spots in the prior one. At this pace they'll be frontrunners for the McDavid sweepstakes by late January. That regression thing hurts.

Strength of Schedule Adjusted Wins

Team Week 2 Week 4 Week 6 Week 8 Week 10 Movement Rank
Toronto Maple Leafs 21 15 16 12 5 7 1
Chicago Blackhawks 8 18 17 8 2 6 2
Anaheim Ducks 2 2 9 10 4 6 2
New York Rangers 20 21 23 16 12 4 4
San Jose Sharks 9 11 18 17 13 4 4
Philadelphia Flyers 26 20 19 27 23 4 4
Columbus Blue Jackets 11 29 29 29 25 4 4
Washington Capitals 6 25 21 21 18 3 8
Buffalo Sabres 30 30 30 28 26 2 9
St. Louis Blues 16 4 5 4 3 1 10
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 1 1 1 1 0 11
Detroit Red Wings 13 10 10 9 9 0 11
Winnipeg Jets 25 12 13 15 15 0 11
Florida Panthers 23 22 20 19 19 0 11
Boston Bruins 22 19 14 20 20 0 11
New Jersey Devils 12 16 22 22 22 0 11
Edmonton Oilers 28 26 27 30 30 0 11
Nashville Predators 4 5 2 5 6 -1 18
Minnesota Wild 17 7 11 13 14 -1 18
Dallas Stars 7 24 28 23 24 -1 18
New York Islanders 14 17 6 6 8 -2 21
Los Angeles Kings 15 14 15 14 16 -2 21
Montreal Canadiens 5 13 4 7 10 -3 23
Ottawa Senators 3 8 12 18 21 -3 23
Colorado Avalanche 27 28 25 24 27 -3 23
Arizona Coyotes 24 23 24 25 28 -3 23
Carolina Hurricanes 29 27 26 26 29 -3 23
Tampa Bay Lightning 10 3 3 2 7 -5 28
Calgary Flames 18 9 8 11 17 -6 29
Vancouver Canucks 19 6 7 3 11 -8 30

The Flames are second to last in this metric as well. Obviously a six game losing streak hurts regardless of what metrics you're using.

Corsi R.P.I.

Rk Team Corsi OppCorsi OppOppCorsi CorsiRPI
1 Chicago Blackhawks 54.70% 49.73% 50.11% 51.07%
2 Nashville Predators 52.85% 50.31% 50.06% 50.88%
3 Minnesota Wild 53.31% 50.07% 50.03% 50.87%
4 New York Islanders 52.39% 50.50% 49.93% 50.83%
5 Los Angeles Kings 53.12% 49.78% 50.12% 50.70%
6 Tampa Bay Lightning 53.85% 49.14% 50.06% 50.54%
7 Carolina Hurricanes 52.19% 49.90% 49.98% 50.49%
8 Winnipeg Jets 52.63% 49.60% 50.12% 50.49%
9 Dallas Stars 49.52% 51.10% 50.01% 50.43%
10 San Jose Sharks 52.03% 49.66% 50.07% 50.36%
11 Boston Bruins 52.34% 49.55% 49.94% 50.35%
12 St. Louis Blues 50.79% 50.18% 50.12% 50.32%
13 Edmonton Oilers 50.68% 50.22% 50.08% 50.30%
14 Detroit Red Wings 52.96% 49.12% 49.88% 50.27%
15 New Jersey Devils 49.76% 50.49% 49.96% 50.18%
16 Vancouver Canucks 50.73% 49.95% 50.01% 50.16%
17 Washington Capitals 50.79% 49.90% 49.95% 50.14%
18 Arizona Coyotes 48.94% 50.59% 50.01% 50.03%
19 Anaheim Ducks 50.19% 49.73% 50.07% 49.93%
20 Pittsburgh Penguins 51.07% 49.25% 50.07% 49.91%
21 Florida Panthers 51.43% 48.84% 50.16% 49.82%
22 Montreal Canadiens 50.21% 49.26% 50.03% 49.69%
23 Ottawa Senators 47.79% 50.52% 49.86% 49.67%
24 Philadelphia Flyers 47.34% 50.71% 49.77% 49.63%
25 New York Rangers 48.76% 49.81% 49.88% 49.57%
26 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.25% 50.12% 49.90% 49.10%
27 Colorado Avalanche 45.07% 50.59% 49.98% 49.06%
28 Calgary Flames 45.23% 50.40% 49.91% 48.99%
29 Toronto Maple Leafs 45.54% 49.68% 49.91% 48.70%
30 Buffalo Sabres 37.68% 50.91% 49.61% 47.27%

If there's one little victory here it's that the possession has improved a bit. The team improved from 29th to 28th overall in possession. The downside is their P.D.O. took a huge hit and is now around league average. P.D.O. is much harder to sustain than possession as it involves a great amount of luck in shooting the puck and with goaltending. The team should expect to play better than they have in recent weeks, but they aren't likely to return to their dominant form.