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The bi-weekly power rankings are up and we'll look at them through a few different metrics. For those not familiar, the metrics are:
| R.P.I. | .25 x teams' points per game (TPts/G) + .5 x opponents' points per game (OPts/G) + .25 x opponents' opponents' points per game (OOPts/G) |
| AdjPts | teams' points per game x strength of schedule (S.O.S.) |
| S.O.S. | 2/3 x Opts/G + 1/3 OOPts/G |
The points system works like this:
| Result | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation Win | 2.14 | 1.86 |
| Overtime Win | 1.74 | 1.46 |
| Shootout Win | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| Shootout Loss | 0.94 | 0.66 |
| Overtime Loss | 0.54 | 0.26 |
| Regulation Loss | 0.14 | -0.14 |
Without further ado, here are the rankings for the week.
R.P.I.
| Rank | Team | TPts/G | OPts/G | OOPts/G | R.P.I. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 1.284 | 1.031 | 1.005 | 1.088 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1.324 | 0.998 | 1.019 | 1.085 |
| 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1.163 | 1.059 | 1.049 | 1.082 |
| 4 | St. Louis Blues | 1.286 | 1.002 | 1.010 | 1.075 |
| 5 | New York Rangers | 1.052 | 1.067 | 1.039 | 1.056 |
| 6 | Anaheim Ducks | 1.253 | 0.983 | 1.003 | 1.055 |
| 7 | New York Islanders | 1.166 | 1.009 | 1.004 | 1.047 |
| 8 | Detroit Red Wings | 1.161 | 1.003 | 1.015 | 1.046 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1.232 | 0.968 | 1.014 | 1.046 |
| 10 | Nashville Predators | 1.253 | 0.960 | 1.007 | 1.045 |
| 11 | Montreal Canadiens | 1.175 | 0.979 | 1.018 | 1.037 |
| 12 | Vancouver Canucks | 1.188 | 0.952 | 1.010 | 1.025 |
| 13 | Ottawa Senators | 0.832 | 1.101 | 1.033 | 1.017 |
| 14 | Minnesota Wild | 1.063 | 1.000 | 1.003 | 1.016 |
| 15 | San Jose Sharks | 1.130 | 0.945 | 1.003 | 1.006 |
| 16 | Calgary Flames | 0.970 | 1.019 | 0.996 | 1.001 |
| 17 | Winnipeg Jets | 1.046 | 0.969 | 1.011 | 0.999 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Kings | 1.025 | 0.974 | 1.005 | 0.994 |
| 19 | Boston Bruins | 0.928 | 1.004 | 1.008 | 0.986 |
| 20 | Washington Capitals | 1.000 | 0.967 | 0.998 | 0.983 |
| 21 | Buffalo Sabres | 0.695 | 1.101 | 1.024 | 0.980 |
| 22 | New Jersey Devils | 0.831 | 1.020 | 1.003 | 0.968 |
| 23 | Florida Panthers | 0.980 | 0.940 | 1.010 | 0.968 |
| 24 | Philadelphia Flyers | 0.827 | 1.012 | 1.000 | 0.963 |
| 25 | Dallas Stars | 0.790 | 1.024 | 0.995 | 0.958 |
| 26 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 0.800 | 0.996 | 1.000 | 0.948 |
| 27 | Colorado Avalanche | 0.684 | 1.055 | 0.998 | 0.948 |
| 28 | Arizona Coyotes | 0.692 | 0.972 | 0.993 | 0.907 |
| 29 | Carolina Hurricanes | 0.605 | 0.993 | 0.996 | 0.897 |
| 30 | Edmonton Oilers | 0.516 | 1.021 | 0.992 | 0.888 |
The mean comes out to be one so the Flames are still .001 points per game above average due to the wretchedness of some of the McDavid sweepstake finalists this year, but that's not where the team is used to sitting and obviously that's going to get much worse if they don't start actually winning their games.
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points
| Rank | Team | Pts/G | S.O.S. | AdjPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1.324 | 1.005 | 1.331 |
| 2 | Chicago Blackhawks | 1.284 | 1.023 | 1.313 |
| 3 | St. Louis Blues | 1.286 | 1.005 | 1.292 |
| 4 | Anaheim Ducks | 1.253 | 0.990 | 1.240 |
| 5 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1.163 | 1.055 | 1.228 |
| 6 | Nashville Predators | 1.253 | 0.976 | 1.223 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1.232 | 0.984 | 1.212 |
| 8 | New York Islanders | 1.166 | 1.007 | 1.174 |
| 9 | Detroit Red Wings | 1.161 | 1.007 | 1.170 |
| 10 | Montreal Canadiens | 1.175 | 0.992 | 1.165 |
| 11 | Vancouver Canucks | 1.188 | 0.971 | 1.154 |
| 12 | New York Rangers | 1.052 | 1.057 | 1.112 |
| 13 | San Jose Sharks | 1.130 | 0.965 | 1.090 |
| 14 | Minnesota Wild | 1.063 | 1.001 | 1.064 |
| 15 | Winnipeg Jets | 1.046 | 0.983 | 1.028 |
| 16 | Los Angeles Kings | 1.025 | 0.984 | 1.009 |
| 17 | Calgary Flames | 0.970 | 1.011 | 0.981 |
| 18 | Washington Capitals | 1.000 | 0.977 | 0.977 |
| 19 | Florida Panthers | 0.980 | 0.963 | 0.944 |
| 20 | Boston Bruins | 0.928 | 1.005 | 0.933 |
| 21 | Ottawa Senators | 0.832 | 1.079 | 0.897 |
| 22 | New Jersey Devils | 0.831 | 1.014 | 0.843 |
| 23 | Philadelphia Flyers | 0.827 | 1.008 | 0.833 |
| 24 | Dallas Stars | 0.790 | 1.015 | 0.801 |
| 25 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 0.800 | 0.997 | 0.798 |
| 26 | Buffalo Sabres | 0.695 | 1.075 | 0.747 |
| 27 | Colorado Avalanche | 0.684 | 1.036 | 0.709 |
| 28 | Arizona Coyotes | 0.692 | 0.979 | 0.678 |
| 29 | Carolina Hurricanes | 0.605 | 0.994 | 0.602 |
| 30 | Edmonton Oilers | 0.516 | 1.011 | 0.522 |
Again the mean is one, so the Flames are now below .500 on strength of schedule adjusted points. Everything fell apart for the Flames over the past few weeks and they're now lobbying for a wild card spot instead of competing for one of the three in the Pacific. They now have a little over a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Sports Club Stats, but that's decreased considerably as you can tell from the chart below.
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Flames Playoff Chances as of 12/17
Movement and History
R.P.I.
| Team | Week 2 | Week 4 | Week 6 | Week 8 | Week 10 | Movement | Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 20 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 1 | ||
| Chicago Blackhawks | 12 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | ||
| San Jose Sharks | 8 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 3 | ||
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 14 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 3 | ||
| Washington Capitals | 5 | 25 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Philadelphia Flyers | 16 | 16 | 19 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | ||
| Detroit Red Wings | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 8 | ||
| Minnesota Wild | 21 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 8 | ||
| Buffalo Sabres | 29 | 30 | 30 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 8 | ||
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 15 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | ||
| St. Louis Blues | 13 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Vancouver Canucks | 22 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Ottawa Senators | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Dallas Stars | 2 | 18 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 | ||
| Montreal Canadiens | 7 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 16 | ||
| Winnipeg Jets | 27 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 16 | ||
| Los Angeles Kings | 19 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 16 | ||
| Boston Bruins | 23 | 23 | 17 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 | ||
| New Jersey Devils | 11 | 14 | 20 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 | ||
| Carolina Hurricanes | 30 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 16 | ||
| Edmonton Oilers | 28 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 16 | ||
| New York Islanders | 18 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 24 | ||
| Arizona Coyotes | 25 | 24 | 23 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 24 | ||
| Nashville Predators | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 26 | ||
| Florida Panthers | 24 | 27 | 24 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 26 | ||
| Colorado Avalanche | 26 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 26 | ||
| Calgary Flames | 17 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 29 | ||
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 30 |
The Flames dropped the second highest number of spots in the rankings this week after dropping six spots in the prior one. At this pace they'll be frontrunners for the McDavid sweepstakes by late January. That regression thing hurts.
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Wins
| Team | Week 2 | Week 4 | Week 6 | Week 8 | Week 10 | Movement | Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 21 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Chicago Blackhawks | 8 | 18 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | ||
| Anaheim Ducks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 2 | ||
| New York Rangers | 20 | 21 | 23 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 4 | ||
| San Jose Sharks | 9 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Philadelphia Flyers | 26 | 20 | 19 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 11 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Washington Capitals | 6 | 25 | 21 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 8 | ||
| Buffalo Sabres | 30 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 9 | ||
| St. Louis Blues | 16 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | ||
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Detroit Red Wings | 13 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Winnipeg Jets | 25 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Florida Panthers | 23 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Boston Bruins | 22 | 19 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 11 | ||
| New Jersey Devils | 12 | 16 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Edmonton Oilers | 28 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Nashville Predators | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 18 | ||
| Minnesota Wild | 17 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 18 | ||
| Dallas Stars | 7 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 18 | ||
| New York Islanders | 14 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 21 | ||
| Los Angeles Kings | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 21 | ||
| Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 23 | ||
| Ottawa Senators | 3 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 23 | ||
| Colorado Avalanche | 27 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 23 | ||
| Arizona Coyotes | 24 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 23 | ||
| Carolina Hurricanes | 29 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 23 | ||
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 28 | ||
| Calgary Flames | 18 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 29 | ||
| Vancouver Canucks | 19 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 30 |
The Flames are second to last in this metric as well. Obviously a six game losing streak hurts regardless of what metrics you're using.
Corsi R.P.I.
| Rk | Team | Corsi | OppCorsi | OppOppCorsi | CorsiRPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 54.70% | 49.73% | 50.11% | 51.07% |
| 2 | Nashville Predators | 52.85% | 50.31% | 50.06% | 50.88% |
| 3 | Minnesota Wild | 53.31% | 50.07% | 50.03% | 50.87% |
| 4 | New York Islanders | 52.39% | 50.50% | 49.93% | 50.83% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Kings | 53.12% | 49.78% | 50.12% | 50.70% |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 53.85% | 49.14% | 50.06% | 50.54% |
| 7 | Carolina Hurricanes | 52.19% | 49.90% | 49.98% | 50.49% |
| 8 | Winnipeg Jets | 52.63% | 49.60% | 50.12% | 50.49% |
| 9 | Dallas Stars | 49.52% | 51.10% | 50.01% | 50.43% |
| 10 | San Jose Sharks | 52.03% | 49.66% | 50.07% | 50.36% |
| 11 | Boston Bruins | 52.34% | 49.55% | 49.94% | 50.35% |
| 12 | St. Louis Blues | 50.79% | 50.18% | 50.12% | 50.32% |
| 13 | Edmonton Oilers | 50.68% | 50.22% | 50.08% | 50.30% |
| 14 | Detroit Red Wings | 52.96% | 49.12% | 49.88% | 50.27% |
| 15 | New Jersey Devils | 49.76% | 50.49% | 49.96% | 50.18% |
| 16 | Vancouver Canucks | 50.73% | 49.95% | 50.01% | 50.16% |
| 17 | Washington Capitals | 50.79% | 49.90% | 49.95% | 50.14% |
| 18 | Arizona Coyotes | 48.94% | 50.59% | 50.01% | 50.03% |
| 19 | Anaheim Ducks | 50.19% | 49.73% | 50.07% | 49.93% |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 51.07% | 49.25% | 50.07% | 49.91% |
| 21 | Florida Panthers | 51.43% | 48.84% | 50.16% | 49.82% |
| 22 | Montreal Canadiens | 50.21% | 49.26% | 50.03% | 49.69% |
| 23 | Ottawa Senators | 47.79% | 50.52% | 49.86% | 49.67% |
| 24 | Philadelphia Flyers | 47.34% | 50.71% | 49.77% | 49.63% |
| 25 | New York Rangers | 48.76% | 49.81% | 49.88% | 49.57% |
| 26 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 46.25% | 50.12% | 49.90% | 49.10% |
| 27 | Colorado Avalanche | 45.07% | 50.59% | 49.98% | 49.06% |
| 28 | Calgary Flames | 45.23% | 50.40% | 49.91% | 48.99% |
| 29 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 45.54% | 49.68% | 49.91% | 48.70% |
| 30 | Buffalo Sabres | 37.68% | 50.91% | 49.61% | 47.27% |
If there's one little victory here it's that the possession has improved a bit. The team improved from 29th to 28th overall in possession. The downside is their P.D.O. took a huge hit and is now around league average. P.D.O. is much harder to sustain than possession as it involves a great amount of luck in shooting the puck and with goaltending. The team should expect to play better than they have in recent weeks, but they aren't likely to return to their dominant form.