Game 13 Fancy Stats Recap

Hi friends, as you might have seen I’m back from my trip to Japan in October. It was cool and all that fun stuff but you know what’s cooler? When the Flames beat the snot out of the Habs in the Bell Centre by a score of 6-2. What’s even better than that you may ask yourself? Seeing a bunch of nerdy numbers to examine the game and get better insight into what happened! I do apologize if there is a hint of jet-lag in this post, I’m not quite 100% adjusted yet.

Courtesy of the amazing Greg Sinclair who runs Hockeystats.ca

The Flames played a great first period. That being said, the Habs did bounce back noticeably in periods two and three which we'll examine in detail further down. We rode a power play that went 1/6 although it was generating lots of chances. In all situations, Calgary looked very good and during ES situations the Flames continued for the most part this trend.

Let's take a look at the even strength charts from HockeyStats.ca; here is the even strength Corsi and Fenwick charts at ES to see how well the Flames played last night:

Corsi - Even Strength

As mentioned, great first period and Montreal pushed back in the second and third. The most noticeable interval was a portion of the second period where the Habs had 7 ES Corsi events to the Flames 0. With 39 attempts at ES by the end of the game, it's not a bad showing for the team who are down several veterans who do make a difference. That being said, the kids and the remaining veterans put up a great showing against an elite team who didn't play like one.

It should be noted that at even strength, the Flames did rely on short intervals of attempts in the offensive zone, while in all scenarios they had more consistent pressure due to the PP. The Habs pressure due to score effects (which we'll get to in a moment) eventually lead them out on top in the third with more Corsi events at ES than the Flames.

Fenwick - Even Strength

This reinforces what we've examined so far: strong first period, very good, and a difficult third. Although we're not looking at "quality shot" data and "scoring chance" data as well (though we will try to add them in later this season), Calgary played a pretty great game.

That being said, with the aforementioned push from Montreal in the second and third periods that forced the team to adjust. Score effects plays a huge part on this. Jen LC did a fantastic piece explaining score effects for PuckDaddy and I recommend you check it out here. If you don't feel like reading it, here is the core principle behind it:

Montreal, ES Corsi-wise versus Fenwick is definitely not as glaring due to Calgary's necessity to block shots and limit pucks on net as much as possible. Still, Montreal pushed back more so than in the first, yet Calgary continued to come out on top.

Courtesy of the amazing NaturalStatTrick, we have our period data breaking down Corsi and Fenwick as well:

Flames vs Canadiens - All Situations

• Calgary started to heat up about five minutes into the first period which continued for most of the game as mentioned. By the end of the first period, with the 2-0 lead courtesy of Josh Jooris and Markus Granlund, it appeared as the Flames would start the second doing the same thing.
• The most visible difference you’ll see is the effects of shot blocking that impacts the second period for Calgary. It played a huge factor along with the power play.

Flames vs Canadiens - Even Strength

• See? I told you. Montreal’s Fenwick was improved. Probably because they got yelled at during the intermission.
• During the third period in all situations, the Habs opened up considerably. They continued a focus on pushing to break the shutout bid and they did right away with Max Pacioretty’s goal. The Habs showed up for sure generating more chances than Calgary despite the score. Fortunately the Jooris breakaway PPG helped increase the lead to 4-1.
• PK Subban falling and Mark Giordano’s pass to Bouma at the side of net didn’t help the Habs’ cause either. Even though Lars Eller would clean up the garbage in front of Hiller, it would not be enough. The Habs continued pressure wasn’t enough and Giordano putting in the empty net goal was another nail in their coffin. Montreal was easily a better team in the third but they failed to beat Hiller and his shot blocking corps.

And finally, here is the team data at even strength along with zone starts and all that fun stuff for you to look at. I think long-term we'll consider adding all situations data to this as well to get an idea of how the team was including PP and PK situations. That being said, since most hockey is played 5 v 5, it might not be of value when we can examine the power play or penalty kill with different approaches.

Even Strength Corsi Data

Granlund has a bright future and incredible upside. In eight games with the Baby Flames, he has 3 goals and 2 assists with 17 SOG. Given the extent of Stajan's injury and with Colborne's injury, if Granlund is healthy he can make a case to stay with the team the rest of the season if he continues to perform well.

by Mike Pfeil