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Game 19 Fancy Stats Recap

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I was at the game and boy howdy let me tell you how gosh darn amazing the Flames played.

#FLAMS
#FLAMS
Derek Leung

Sorry for the delay folks, I was in beautiful Calgary this weekend for the Senators/Flames game and after missing my bus home back to disappointing Edmonton, I've returned happier than ever! Let me tell you something great though:

Nothing is more enjoyable than seeing a Paul Byron breakaway goal live in person. That and banana bread french toast is a must have even if you're dumb and have a banana allergy like me.

Anyway, let's get this started because I know you're dying to read this stuff even though you may have examined it already independently. Nothing obscenely stands out beyond strong ES numbers and score effects at work.

Courtesy of a now upgraded version of Hockeystats.ca:

Corsi - All Situations:

  • The first period saw the first actual shot attempt nearly two minutes in and from there Ottawa managed to take a considerable lead early on.
  • A penalty against Sven Baertschi (which was completely soft) only helped the situation for the Sens.
  • With just over five minutes left in the period, Calgary did make substantial pushes possession wise to end the period on a higher note.
  • The second period would continue with Ottawa's strong push to regain control of possession and the Paul Byron penalty wasn't going to help the Flames any further.
  • Flat-lining around the 25 minute mark and then moving onward would see Calgary start their rise through the period. The Byron goal would be the cap of a stretch where the Flames only managed 9 Corsi events in a span of just over 4 minutes.
  • From there, fending off the instigator penalty assessed to Brandon Bollig and leading into the end of the second, the Flames ended the period on positive note leading in terms of possession.
  • The third was the weakest of the two, as you can see. Markus Granlund's goal, Josh Jooris' goal, and the Lance Bouma goal were the only highlights possession wise.
  • It didn't help taking the 3 penalties in the third and for that, on the 5 on 3 PP that the Senators had, you can see an incredible push late in the game to score. Fortunately the PK units did their job and allowed the victory.

Corsi - Even Strength:

  • Calgary was the superior team at even strength events in this game. As previously stated, midway through the 1st period you saw a more visibly capable team. They were entering the zone and making smarter passes which lead to shot attempts.
  • The spike of attempts around the halfway mark of the second is a testament to how this team can play if lines are matched accordingly, ice time is PROPERLY distributed, and we use smart plays to develop scoring chances.
  • That third period yeesh. Calgary needs to find a way to maintain 3 full periods of decent play. It's a lot to even ask at this point in the rebuild but long-term we need to see them do it.
Period by period breakdown data courtesy of the radtacular NaturalStatTrick:

Flames vs Senators - All Situations

  • One of the finer first periods the Flames have had. Specifically around a team with talent. I mean the Senators aren't the gods of the Eastern conference but they do have some great possession drivers like Kyle Turris, Clark MacArthur, former Norris trophy winner Erik Karlsson, and rookie Mike Hoffman. That said, it's remarkable that despite the Baertschi penalty they were 61% in the 1st period.
  • Obviously it helps being above 60% Fenwick-wise as well. Given the necessity for higher quality shots in this league, taking advantage of zone entries, deployment, and "puck luck" helps with shooting statistics. The Flames still rely too often from shots on the blueline at times. More in close chances like the Granlund goal will play a huge factor moving forward this season.
  • The 2nd period was a bit more balanced possession wise. Corsi and Fenwick regressed as Ottawa took advantage of the Byron penalty and Bollig instigator.
  • The Sens had three noticeable intervals shown on the all situations chart clearly showing why this period was closer.
  • Not much to say about the 3rd period. The penalties did a huge number to us in all situations. What's impressive is how Calgary maintained their PK during the worst stretch late in the 3rd. Positioning and communication were key in blocking shots and reducing shoot lanes preventing quality chances.
Flames vs Senators - Even Strength

  • Golly gee, friends look at those CF% and FF% numbers in the 1st. Everything that had to be said has been said already about the period.
  • As goes for the 2nd too.
  • With the 3rd, because of the opportunistic nature presented starting with the Granlund goal; we can discuss this period a bit further. With the Senators zone entry and Bouma's positioning during that zone entry, being supported with Markus allowed the Flames to force a turnover on Cody Ceci.
  • Outside of that, the Bouma goal was just a smart play alone. Statistically there isn't much beyond all of this for the final period. It was all fortunate bounces and smart decisions at ES that allowed the goals to happen. The Senators were realistically doing everything possible to make something change.
  • The Bobby Ryan goal was just a genius hockey play which didn't help matters. Basically score effects rampant in the 3rd.
Flames - Even Strength
  • Mark Giordano had an up and down night. First, the Chris Neil high-stick that wasn't called? Okay yeah, that's a crock of sweet, sweet rotting shit. So it dug into his TOI hugely. Which would explain a bit of off-putting numbers. Couple that he and TJ Brodie's everlasting difficult zone starts and it adds up. Note worthy: Gio was at 22:37 by the end of the night. A lot of his night honestly was on the PP and PK. Gio faced predominately top competition all night.
  • Continuing with TJ Brodie, an astonishing 28:03 TOI in all situations and team leading 19:29 at ES. He had a slightly better ZS than Gio but faced difficult competition all night too. We need a better second pairing.
  • Paul Byron and Sven Baertschi faced the toughest zone starts than anyone else on the team. They fared okay and suffered from questionable ES TOI. Sven's ice time being topped at 10:00 or so a night is killing me to watch. He and Byron predominately played against Karlsson, Chris Phillips, Hoffman, and Turris.
  • David Jones' TOI was slaughtered due to the injury he left that game with. That said, he faced some tough zone starts and posted astonishing numbers in that time. He's coming around despite the flu bug and now this injury. Hopefully the $4M man can come back soon.
  • Markus Granlund's goal tonight was a cherry on top of some impressive numbers. Remarkably better with 4.86% OZS, he played against the likes Karlsson, Turris, and Jared Cowen mostly.
  • Sean Monahan, no points but great game overall. Strong in faceoff wins, tough zone starts, and positive possession. The fears of Monahan regressing might be a bit off but we'll see. He's evolving into a great centre and a cornerstone of the franchise.
  • Brandon Bollig. Hahahahahahahahahhahahaahha ahahahahahahha *dies*
Player Spotlight: Sean Monahan
  • Of the entire roster he played against, he was a negative possession player against two of them. One of which is a former Norris trophy winner and the other is Milan Michalek who isn't a burning pile of trash yet.
  • The sample size of TOI against the players is also phenomenal. He matched up with everyone for at least 2:11 which is a fairly great way to look at his play overall. Which is why I wanted to show this sorted by TOI.
  • He took advantage of youngster Cody Ceci generating 11 CF against Ceci, far more than anyone else he played against. Along with the highest TOI against too. The one caveat is the OZS at 66.67% which is a little padded for Sean and unfair for Ceci.
  • With regards to Fenwick, I mean come on. The guy just killed it. Specifically against the top line and top pairing too.
Given the injuries the team has, the emergence is a little early for what I thought would happen for Monahan this season. I wasn't predicting his stronger possession game to kick in yet and I didn't expect him to have 12 points in 19 games either. His SH% is going to regress a bit as it's sitting at 14.3% overall too which is expected.

His TOI Competition % vs OZS % is incredibly stronger this season too (via War-On-Ice.com):
The Y-axis measures the time on ice against competition while the X-axis measures the amount of offensive zone starts he has gotten so far in his career. The data used being of course this season so far and his rookie season. Blue means good, red means bad. So as you can see, Hartley has given him more responsible starts (some by choice, others by icing) and he's excelled so far. Will this be sustainable?
Doubtful. For a sophomore centre playing on a team projected to finish at the bottom and a large portion of the "core" injured, this will regress through the season most likely. Will his perfect hair last forever? We can confirm that it will.

The Flames take on the Ducks next and after their 6-2 murdering at the hands of the Florida Panthers, expect this to be an interesting game. Or, maybe the Ducks' goaltending will suck even more than it does and we'll put a bunch of goals past them.

Next game is on Tuesday at the Saddledome. 7PM MST start we'll have you covered!