Mikael Backlund and Comparable Players

This will be the last thing I write for a while on good ol' Mikael Backlund- I can't say I expect it to change anyone's mind, but I can hope.

I went to Hockey-Reference to generate three lists of players (Kent Wilson helped me pick the ranges, as generating statistics isn't something I have a ton of experience with). Here's what I used and why:

Age: 21-24. With Backlund currently 22 and turning 23 in about a month, a range was necessary. 21-24 kept both ages he'll be during this season in the middle.

Year: 2nd. Same as Mickis.

Seasons: 2001-02 to 2011-12. Ten years is a decent sample size and keeps the game within the same style of play (no terrible 80's goalies inflating points)

Position: Forward. Duh.

Points: I have three different ranges: 10-25, 25-35, and 40-50. To be more specific, those are the points players would have if they played a full season. The actual filter is points per game with a minimum games played of 43 (over half a season) to rule out call-ups who show up for a game, score a point, and go back to the AHL.

Tables after the jump!

This first table is for the 10-25 points range:

This next one is 26-35. This is the table that I'd realistically include Backlund in, despite technically belonging in the first. Why? Between missing training camp, getting saddled with poor linemates most of the time, and the fact that you have to agree he's been at least a little unlucky (to the tune of 2-3 points), he'd have about 25-27 points over the season, much like last year.

This last table is the players Backlund clearly isn't- those that are almost immediately capable of offense.

A couple points that if I don't make completely obvious, I'll get murdered over.

1. There's a lot of names listed above.

2. Obviously we all wish he were playing like Booth, Pavelski, or Dubunsky in their respective sophomore seasons. Nobody disagrees there. Nobody will argue that point.

The main point of all of this is that there are some very very good players on the first two lists that I'd love to have down the road: Daniel Sedin, Ryan Kesler, Martin Hanzal, Dustin Brown, Shawn Horcoff, and Andrew Ladd, to name a few.

I'm not saying he'll develop into any of these players, just that if the fans of their teams had revolted after a poor sophomore year and called them busts, the NHL might be very very different. Give Backlund some more time. The reigning Art Ross trophy winner didn't have a "good" season until his 4th year in the league, Backlund is still learning.