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With all due respect to Yogi Berra and his famous quote "It ain't over, till its over" sometimes it is in a hockey playoff race.
It is coming down to the wire and it is hard not to start watching the competition for results. I can’t recall a tighter race that involved so many teams in the West.
Almost all teams still hold their destiny in their own hands at this point. But some teams are essentially a lock for the playoffs (in or out) from a reasonable perspective.
Mathematically nothing is confirmed yet but from a reasonable perspective we are getting into the realm of very high probabilities. I am one of those people who mixes Math with "Lets Get Real" in my thought process. I am perfectly fine with calling playoff confirmations before they are mathematically absolute and I have never missed before.
Some teams may see this as a jinx, too bad for you. Some teams may take this as an insult and feel free to come mock me after if your team comes up and makes the playoffs despite my call.
Think of this as the reasonably early but not mathematically absolute playoff confirmations. I’m willing to put ready money on my predictions at this point in the season.
Don’t expect ALL teams to get called (in or out) before the end of the season either by the way - Yogi is right in some cases even in hockey BUT at this point I call the Vancouver Canucks a playoff confirmation and the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche a playoff miss in the West.
We are getting into the realm of parallel universes with hyper-active hockey gods if you are going to argue otherwise.
Playoff Calls |
The Countdown to 96 |
||||||
| Wins | Wins Needed | ||||||
| WESTERN | GP | PTS | Pts to 96 | GR | Needed | divided by GR | |
| 1 | CANUCKS | 66 | 91 | 5 | 16 | 3 | IN |
| 2 | RED WINGS | 66 | 86 | 10 | 16 | 5 | 31.25% |
| 3 | SHARKS | 66 | 82 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 43.75% |
| 4 | HAWKS | 66 | 80 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 50.00% |
| 5 | COYOTES | 67 | 78 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 60.00% |
| 6 | STARS | 65 | 77 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 58.82% |
| 7 | FLAMES | 67 | 77 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 66.67% |
| 8 | KINGS | 65 | 76 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 58.82% |
| 9 | DUCKS | 65 | 75 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 64.71% |
| 10 | PREDS | 65 | 75 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 64.71% |
| 11 | WILD | 65 | 74 | 22 | 17 | 11 | 64.71% |
| 12 | BLUE JACKETS | 64 | 69 | 27 | 18 | 14 | 77.78% |
| 13 | BLUES | 65 | 65 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 94.12% |
| 14 | AVALANCHE | 65 | 60 | 36 | 17 | X | OUT |
| 15 | OILERS | 66 | 54 | 42 | 16 | X | OUT |
Further explanation after the break...
WHY 96 POINTS?
(1) Why use 96 points for the cutoff?
(2) Why are you just using GR and Wins Needed?
Because it is the simplest way of looking at the games at this point. Most teams are still in the position of being able to win themselves into the playoffs.
(3) What about all the other stuff – OTL – Shootouts and so forth?
The other information is simply extra right now and won't even factor for the majority of teams, no point listing shoot-out records for the Canucks - they won't need that tie breaker. For some teams it will likely become very relevant at the end of the season and expect my table to expand at that moment.
(4) On what grounds are you calling teams in or out.
Lots of things, for those who insist on knowing, I am looking at the remaining schedule of the team, strength of opponents, looking at the Wins Needed divided by Games Remaining, looking at their recent record, checking injuries, player streaks with a host of other factors.
When I call a team IN or OUT for the playoffs I am very sure on the call despite Yogi scowling away at me.
You can personally take it or leave it. Over the next few weeks the Western race should tighten to the point that we will see only 4-5 teams instead of the current 9-10.
And once again, do not expect all teams to get a playoff call. I fully expect the Western Conference race to come down to the final games for several teams but it is helpful to start clearing the field at this point.