This is my second "Reasonably Early but Not Mathematically Absolute Playoff Confirms / Playoff Calls." The first predictions last week were only for the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference is included this time.
|
EAST |
Pt to 92 |
|
|
CALL |
||||
|
GP |
GR |
PTS |
|
|||||
|
|
||||||||
|
1 |
PHILADELPHIA |
67 |
15 |
90 |
2 |
1 |
6.67% |
IN |
|
2 |
WASHINGTON |
69 |
13 |
88 |
4 |
2 |
15.38% |
IN |
|
3 |
BOSTON |
68 |
14 |
85 |
7 |
4 |
28.57% |
IN |
|
4 |
PITTSBURGH |
68 |
14 |
86 |
6 |
3 |
21.43% |
IN |
|
5 |
TAMPA BAY |
68 |
14 |
84 |
8 |
4 |
28.57% |
IN |
|
6 |
MONTREAL |
68 |
14 |
81 |
11 |
6 |
42.86% |
|
|
7 |
BUFFALO |
67 |
15 |
74 |
18 |
9 |
60.00% |
|
|
8 |
NY RANGERS |
69 |
13 |
74 |
18 |
9 |
69.23% |
|
|
9 |
CAROLINA |
68 |
14 |
72 |
20 |
10 |
71.43% |
|
|
10 |
TORONTO |
68 |
14 |
68 |
24 |
12 |
85.71% |
|
|
11 |
ATLANTA |
68 |
14 |
68 |
24 |
12 |
85.71% |
|
|
12 |
NEW JERSEY |
67 |
15 |
66 |
26 |
13 |
86.67% |
|
|
13 |
ISLANDERS |
69 |
13 |
64 |
28 |
14 |
107.69% |
OUT |
|
14 |
FLORIDA |
68 |
14 |
63 |
29 |
15 |
107.14% |
OUT |
|
15 |
OTTAWA |
68 |
14 |
59 |
33 |
17 |
121.43% |
OUT |
|
WEST |
Pt to 96 |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
1 |
VANCOUVER |
69 |
13 |
97 |
-1 |
0 |
0.00% |
IN |
|
2 |
DETROIT |
68 |
14 |
88 |
8 |
4 |
28.57% |
IN |
|
3 |
SAN JOSE |
68 |
14 |
85 |
11 |
6 |
42.86% |
|
|
4 |
DALLAS |
68 |
14 |
82 |
14 |
7 |
50.00% |
|
|
5 |
CHICAGO |
68 |
14 |
81 |
15 |
8 |
57.14% |
|
|
6 |
LOS ANGELES |
68 |
14 |
81 |
15 |
8 |
57.14% |
|
|
7 |
PHOENIX |
69 |
13 |
81 |
15 |
8 |
61.54% |
|
|
8 |
CALGARY |
70 |
12 |
81 |
15 |
8 |
66.67% |
|
|
9 |
ANAHEIM |
68 |
14 |
79 |
17 |
9 |
64.29% |
|
|
10 |
NASHVILLE |
68 |
14 |
78 |
18 |
9 |
64.29% |
|
|
11 |
MINNESOTA |
69 |
13 |
77 |
19 |
10 |
76.92% |
|
|
12 |
COLUMBUS |
67 |
15 |
71 |
25 |
13 |
86.67% |
OUT |
|
13 |
ST LOUIS |
68 |
14 |
71 |
25 |
13 |
92.86% |
OUT |
|
14 |
COLORADO |
67 |
15 |
60 |
36 |
18 |
120.00% |
OUT |
|
15 |
EDMONTON |
69 |
13 |
55 |
41 |
21 |
161.54% |
OUT |
The method is very simple and explained more after the break.
A point target threshold is established to make the playoffs – 96 points for the West – 92 points for the East. I try to make it a little high to be safe. From that point I look at the remaining games and the wins needed for each team to hit that point threshold and therefore make the playoffs.
At this point in the season with 10-15 games left it provides an early window into what various teams need to do to hit the target point (92 or 96) and which are reasonably out of reach. When you are in the final 15% of the season this method gives you an early, yet reasonable peek at what teams will be in the playoffs before they are mathematically confirmed.
When you see that a team has 15 games left but needs 13 wins of those 15 to hit the threshold they are in pretty tough territory. Conversely when a team has 14 games left and only needs 4 wins to hit the point threshold they are essentially a lock in all but absolute math to at least make the playoffs.
Why do this?
Well, I have done this for years in some form or another because as a fan it helps me strategically cheer for my team. I become a temporary fan at this point cheering teams I see as locks for being in or having no chance of getting in for the win against my team's competition.
I have never missed on my calls for playoff teams so if I am calling your team OUT and it manages to get in by the end of the season, feel free to come by and give me the gears. Conversely if I call your team IN and they fall out feel free to come by and give me the gears as being a jinx. I've never missed when I do this at this point in the season.
I was going to post this after tonight's games but after calculating things through, regardless of tonight’s outcomes it will not change the playoff calls of IN or OUT that I am making this morning.