Well, since we are in the age of new statistics, I thought I would dabble in my own predictive analysis. One thing I’ve always wondered about was the effect that fighting has on a team, and more specifically the effect Jarome Iginla fighting has on the team.
Don Cherry was just on CBC the other day pleading for Jarome to stop fighting for fear of injury. Looking at Jarome’s fighting statistics since the lock-out would suggest that this is not a primary concern. Out of the 20 episodes of pugilism #12 has been involved in since the 2005/2006 season he’s only been injured once. And that was because he was responding to a hit from Bryan Allen that damaged his knee.
Seeing that we only have 10 games left in this drama-filled regular season, I conveniently chopped the games around Iginla’s fights to 10 game blocks.
So let’s take a look at Jarome Iginla’s FORSI numbers:
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Jarome Iginla - FORSI (post lock-out) |
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2005 - 2006 |
Combatant |
Decision |
Record |
Points % |
Win % |
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26-Oct-05 |
vs. Moen |
W |
5-1-1 |
79% |
71% |
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10-Nov-05 |
vs. Ballard |
W |
7-2-1 |
75% |
70% |
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03-Feb-06 |
vs. Kesler |
D |
6-4-0 |
60% |
60% |
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02-Mar-06 |
vs. Jackman |
W |
5-4-1 |
55% |
50% |
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Total |
3-0-1 |
23-11-3 |
66% |
62% |
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Outside Fighting Block |
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23-14-8 |
60% |
51% |
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2006-2007 |
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04-Jan-07 |
vs. Allen |
W |
7-2-1 |
75% |
70% |
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31-Mar-07 |
vs. Mitchell |
L |
1-4-0 |
20% |
20% |
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|
|
Total |
1-1-0 |
8-6-1 |
57% |
53% |
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Outside Fighting Block |
|
35-23-9 |
59% |
52% |
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2007-2008 |
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01-Dec-07 |
vs. Tollefson |
W |
6-0-2 |
88% |
75% |
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18-Dec-07 |
vs. Boll |
W |
6-2-2 |
70% |
60% |
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05-Feb-08 |
vs. Jovanovski |
W |
3-2-0 |
60% |
60% |
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17-Feb-08 |
vs. Moen |
W |
1-1-0 |
50% |
50% |
|
|
20-Feb-08 |
vs. Ott |
L |
6-2-2 |
70% |
60% |
|
|
|
Total |
4-1-0 |
22-7-6 |
71% |
63% |
|
|
|
Outside Fighting Block |
|
19-19-7 |
50% |
42% |
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2008-2009 |
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11-Oct-08 |
vs. Mitchell |
W |
0-0-1 |
50% |
0% |
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14-Oct-08 |
vs. McCormick |
L |
7-3-0 |
70% |
70% |
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17-Jan-09 |
vs. Hale |
W |
4-6-0 |
40% |
40% |
|
|
|
Total |
2-1-0 |
11-9-1 |
55% |
52% |
|
|
|
Outside Fighting Block |
|
35-21-5 |
61% |
57% |
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2009-2010 |
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08-Oct-09 |
vs. Moreau |
D |
1-1-0 |
50% |
50% |
|
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12-Oct-09 |
vs. Brouwer |
W |
6-3-1 |
65% |
60% |
|
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13-Dec-09 |
vs. McLeod |
D |
1-4-1 |
25% |
17% |
|
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28-Dec-09 |
vs. Smid |
L |
6-3-1 |
65% |
60% |
|
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30-Jan-10 |
vs. Souray |
D |
5-4-1 |
55% |
50% |
|
|
19-Mar-10 |
vs. Clowe |
W |
1-1-0 |
50% |
50% |
|
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|
Total |
2-1-3 |
19-15-4 |
55% |
50% |
|
|
|
Outside Fighting Block |
|
16-11-5 |
58% |
50% |
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Record includes the game the fight took place, and for (up to) 10 games following. |
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Interesting note, the flames are 13-3-4 in games which Iginla fights. |
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Also, Iginla's only been injured after one of these fights. And that was versus |
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Allen, as he went after him because of a dirty hit - which injured his knee. |
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Interesting things to note, the Flames have a record of 13-4-3 in games Jarome fights. The Flames also have a record of 46-17-10 in the game blocks surrounding fights he WINS.
That leaves the Flames with a point percentage of 0.75 and 0.70 respectively. Using those ratios, the Flames should presumably end up with a record of 9-3-0 or 8-3-1 over their final 12 games.
Why is this important? Well, as Kent so neglectfully failed to report 2 games ago, Jarome Iginla fought Ryan Clowe on March 19th….and won.
