Matchsticks and Gasoline - All Posts

The Best and Worst of the 2013 Flames, Part II

2013-05-22T21:37:52Z

Last time we looked at Mikael Backlund and TJ Brodie's emergent seasons in 48-games for the 2013 Flames. Today we'll check out how some of the older players on the team contributed in positive ways.

Matt Stajan

Matty Franchise's 23 points was five more than he had last season in just 43 games, but Stajan was also thrust into an increased role this year, facing the third toughest quality of competition amongst Flames forwards who played 30+ games, as well as more responsibility defensively. Stajan had the toughest zone start ratio of any regular Flames forward, starting in the offensive zone on just 42% of his shifts at even strength. On special teams, he played an average of 1:57 per game on the PK and just 0:15 on the powerplay. All 23 of his points came at even strength.

Stajan was rotated around the Flames' lineup a fair bit last season as Bob Hartley tried to find line combinations that would work for his team that just could not seem to string two wins together, and at one point he was the only natural centre in the Flames' lineup and as such was heavily relied upon in the faceoff circle, where he won just less than half of his draws.

Is he worth $3.5M for another season? Probably not, but if Stajan can replicate his 2013 play over the course of an 82-game season, I won't complain about him being on the roster next year on a Flames team that will likely be running in place for the time being.

Curtis Glencross and Lee Stempniak

The man we call Scoreface continued to defy the rules of regression this season as he led the Flames with 15 goals in 40 games and shot 16.3% His circumstances weren't exactly as tough as the likes of Stajan, Stempniak and Backlundd--Glencross had the most favourable offensive zone start of all regular Flames forwards at 49.3% and did not face the opposition's best as regularly as Backlund and Stempniak did, and he was plagued by inconsistency in the last month of the season before being injured by a knee-on-knee hit on April 19th. Nonetheless he remains a useful player who can take over a game when his emotions don't get the better of him, the type of player which the Flames will need going forward while he still has some good years left. Staying healthy will be crucial for him, however.

Lee Stempniak was a workhorse this past season. The 30-year-old forward played in all situations against the second-toughest competition of all regular Flames forwards at even strength. He also had the second-toughest zone start of all Calgary forwards, starting in the offensive zone on just 43.5% of his shifts. That he did all of this while managing to tie Mike Cammalleri for first in scoring on the team with 32 points is fairly impressive--and with only 12 PIMS in 47 games. Other than the kids and perhaps Glencross, Stempniak is one of the few Flames forwards who will provide full value for the $2.5M he will make next season at this point in his career.

Mike Cammalleri

Cammalleri remains one of the most offensively talented players on the Flames roster, and he comes with a hefty price tag to match. The 30-year-old shot 17.2% with 19 points in 28 games after being traded to the Flames in February of 2012, and was in line for a slight decline in 2013, but he was still above average in the shortened season. HIs 13 goals were second on the team to Glencross' 15 and his 32 points co-led the team in total scoring with Stempniak. His five powerplay goals tied him with Jiri Hudler as the most dangerous player with the man advantage, and his 15 PP points made up 47% of his scoring. Cammy was deployed against easier competition than the likes of Backlund and Stempniak, but his zone start was the same as Backlund's--45.4%.

The Flames' lack of multiple truly dominant scoring threats who can also drive possession to play alongside a player like Cammalleri combined with his sub-50% zone start, Cammy's on-ice possession numbers also suffered--he also finished his shifts in the offensive zone less than 50% of the time at even strength. The final year of his contract in 2013-14 will obviously be crucial to determining his future role with the team, and in order for him to continue to have success coach Hartley will likely either have to find a way to further improve Cammalleri's circumstances or to consistently deploy him with linemates who can drive the bus possession-wise.

Best of Runners-Up:

Dennis Wideman

Wideman was less of a liability than many predicted this past season. He ate up ice time in all scenarios and his four goals and 13 points on the powerplay helped vault the Flames' man advantage unit into the top-10 in the league. His even strength possession numbers weren't abominable either.

Sven Baertschi

The second-year forward was visibly improved after expressing very public disappointment at being sent down to the Abbotsford Heat following his recovery from a hip-flexor injury. Nine of his 10 points came after he spent a month in the minors, and Baertschi closed out the season on a seven-game point streak, including two multi-point games. Despite spending an average of 1:30/game on the powerplay, all of Baertschi's points came at even strength. He missed the final game of the season and the World Championships with a groin injury.

Friday Playoff Open Thread: Do or Die

2013-05-10T23:15:19Z

With the Wild, Canucks and Canadiens eliminated from post-season contention, three more teams will attempt to join the waiting Senators, Sharks and Blackhawks tonight.

The defending Stanley Cup champion LA Kings return home to try and finish off the Blues tonight on home ice after winning three consecutive games, including Wednesday night's OT victory. Since losing the first two games in St. Louis, Jonathan Quick has allowed just five goals in three games. He appeared to be the butt of the joke following his gaffe in the first overtime period in game one of the series, but has rebounded in a big way to give the defending champs a chance.

The likes of Jeff Carter and Anze Kopitar finally beginning to find their scoring touch doesn't hurt either.

Game six of the LA/St. Louis series can be seen on CBC at 8 p.m. MT.

Here's what else is on tap tonight:

Game 5: Toronto at Boston, 5 p.m. MT on CBC

David Krejci's hat trick and some nifty saves from Tuukka Rask helped the Bruins overcome a 2-0 deficit in game four against the Leafs en route to a 4-3 overtime win, and they'll look to close out the series against the blue and white tonight. Toronto outshot Boston 14-7 in the third period and 11-9 in overtime, and had several golden chances to win it themselves in the extra frame, but they'll need to stay out of the penalty box tonight if they hope to stay alive in this series. The Bruins scored twice on the powerplay in game five.

Game 5: New York at Washington, 5 p.m. MT on TSN

With the series all tied up at two, the Rangers will try to build off of the momentum of two straight wins to take their first lead of the series. Marc Staal is questionable for tonight's game after experiencing some problems with his vision in the eye that was struck by a deflected shot back in March. Staal missed 29 games with the injury.

Game 6: Anaheim at Detroit, 6 p.m. on TSN

An overtime win by the Ducks gave them a 3-2 series lead on Wednesday, and they will have to try not to get caught up in the return of Justin Abdelkader for the Red Wings tonight if they hope to end Detroit's playoff hopes early. Abdelkader served a two-game suspension for a hit to the head of former Flame Toni Lydman in game two. Red Wings rookie Damien Brunner has had an impressive NHL playoff debut, scoring at a point-per-game pace through five games.

Enjoy the games and have a good weekend!

The Best and Worst of the 2013 Calgary Flames, Part I

2013-05-05T22:32:33Z

The 2013 Flames were certainly disappointing for various reasons and at times, mind-numbingly boring, tear-your-hair-out frustrating, and occasionally both at the same time. But there were some bright spots, and we'll start with those, because it's less depressing.

So without further ado, I present the best of the 2013 Calgary Flames, Part I:

TJ Brodie

Watching Brodie's progression throughout the season was by far my favourite part of the train wreck that was the 2013 Flames. His smooth skating, ease and patience with and without the puck made him a treat to watch, and his moves in the offensive zone weren't bad either despite the fact that he only had two goals and 14 points in 47 games.

Considering the skill he demonstrated on both of his goals this season and the fact that he only shot 4.5% through 48 games, Brodie definitely should have had a few more goals than he did. As his responsibility grew later in the season, especially following the Bouwmeester trade, Brodie started less than 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone and finished there just over 50% of the time. He was nowhere near the top of the heap in terms of Quality of Competition, but his Corsi On was still the best of all Flames defenders at +0.97 at even strength, which is saying something considering Derek Smith, who faced the easiest competition of all Flames defenders, was well in the red by that measure and played less than half as many games.

Brodie should be in line for a slight bump-up in offensive production next year over the course of a full 82-game season, I think.

Oh, and the 22-year-old rearguard has played around 12:00 per game in two World Championship contests so far, in which Canada is 1-1-0.

Mikael Backlund:

Backlund was on from game one this season, but especially after he returned from that bone bruise after blocking a shot against the Predators, he was like a man possessed. In the 20 games since then, there was only one in which he did not have a single shot on goal. Four times he had five or more as his ice time crept closer to 20 minutes per game following the Iginla trade. One of the only natural centres in the Flames lineup down the stretch, he wasn't bad in the faceoff circle either, winning at least 50% of his draws in 10 of those 20 contests.

Backlund's pace of 0.5 PPG or 16 points in 32 games means that if he had played the full 48 he would have finished with 24 points, which would have been his best totals since 2010-11 when he had 25 for the Flames in 73 games.

His increased confidence and strength were evident especially in the latter half of the season, when he took matters into his own hands in the offensive zone with far more frequency and was able to skillfully evade opponents while using his strength to protect the puck and create space, if I may use a hockey cliche.

The fact that Backlund continued to face the toughest competition and had the best possession numbers of all Flames forwards who played 30 or more games this season makes his offensive progression even more encouraging. He also scored 75% of his points at even strength, which bodes well for the 24-year-old heading into next season, assuming he remains a Flame; the Flames have tons of cap space heading into the summer, but he could be vulnerable to an offer-sheet from a team that demonstrates an awareness of what he brings to the table.

Backlund was not cleared to play for Sweden at the World Championships because of a small hairline fracture in his foot that had not fully healed after his adventure at the top of the grit chart blocking shots.

The Jarome Iginla Game Day Thread

2013-05-03T23:06:32Z

Next Game

New York Islanders
@ Pittsburgh Penguins

Friday, May 3, 2013, 5:00 PM MT
CONSOL Energy Center

PensBurgh

Lighthouse Hockey

Sidney Crosby returns to the lineup for the Penguins tonight as they look to build upon a dominant performance in Game One against the New York Islanders at home. The Pens defeated the Isles by a score of 5-0 on Wednesday night, and Jarome Iginla had two assists playing on a line with Jokinen and Dupuis. With Crosby's return tonight, Iggy gets bumped up to the second line with Evgeni Malkin and Beau Bennett.

Here are the rest of the Penguins' lines and pairings for tonight's contest, via the team website:

Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis

Bennett-Malkin-Iginla

Morrow-Sutter-Cooke

Glass-Jokinen-Adams

Martin-Engelland

Murray-Niskanen

Eaton-Letang

Fleury

Other games tonight:

Senators at Canadiens, 5:00 p.m. MT on CBC

The Senators won Game One with an outstanding performance from goaltender Craig Anderson, despite being outshot 50-31 by the Montreal Canadiens. Senators forward Eric Gryba was suspended for two games for his hit on the Habs' Lars Eller last night, which left the latter unconscious and bleeding on the ice. After a war of words in the media today which involved former Flame Brandon Prust calling Ottawa coach MacLean a "bug-eyed fat walrus," the show must go on. Ahhh, playoffs.

Wild at Blackhawks, 7:30 p.m. MT on CBC

After narrowly eking out an overtime win on Tuesday night, the Chicago Blackhawks will look to put the Wild down by two tonight heading back to the ~~United Center~~ Xcel Energy Center. Josh Harding more than held his own in Game One as the Wild were outshot 37-27 by the 'Hawks in a game where Ryan Suter player 41 minutes. 41 MINUTES! Rookie Jonas Brodin also played 34 minutes for the Wild. That's crazytown.

Canucks at Sharks, 8:00 p.m. on TSN

I was surprised to see the Sharks beat the Canucks on Wednesday night, and I'll be even more surprised if they do it again tonight. Roberto Luongo starts in net for Vancouver again as Cory Schneider remains out with an undisclosed injury.

Go Pens!

Iggy, Iggy, Iggy! Isles at Pens & Playoffs Day Two Open Thread

2013-05-01T23:25:54Z

After missing out on the dance for three years, Jarome Iginla will once again get a chance to compete for his richly deserved Stanley Cup starting tonight with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

For those of you in need of a refresher, Iginla was traded to the Penguins in a late-night swap back on March 28th for Kenneth Agostino, Ben Hanowski, and a first round pick in a deal that many Flames fans agreed needed to happen.

After half a season of declining productivity from the Flames' former captain, Iginla scored five goals and 11 points in 13 regular season games with the Penguins, and now, with Sidney Crosby likely out for at least tonight's game, he could see an increased role in Pittsburgh's first round series against the Islanders.

Iggy will play on a line with Pascal Dupuis and Jussi Jokinen in Game One at the Consol Energy Center. Here's what the rest of the Pens' lineup should look like tonight:

Chris Kunitz-Evgeni Malkin-James Neal

Brendan Morrow-Brandon Sutter-Matt Cooke

Pascal Dupuis-Jussi Jokinen-Jarome Iginla

Tanner Glass-Craig Adams-Beau Bennett

Mark Eaton-Kris Letang

Paul Martin-Deryk Engelland

Douglas Murray-Matt Niskanen

Marc-Andre Fleury

The consensus seems to be that Pittsburgh will easily run away with this series, but Fleury is sort of the tipping point in goal in this series. If he's on, he's on, but if he's not...well, you all remember this:

Crosby's injury status has also made some prognosticators unsure of just how far the Pens will go without their captain, but there's no doubting Pittsburgh's forward depth when Iginla and Jokinen are on your third line. Pittsburgh's defence worries me a little as well, but not more than the Isles'. The Pens still had a +46 goal differential in the regular season. The game starts at 5:30 p.m. MT on TSN.

Other games tonight:

Toronto (5) at Boston (4), underway on CBC

James van Riemsdyk has scored early on the powerplay for the Maple Leafs to put them up 1-0 over the Boston Bruins in Game One of their series at TD Gardens.

San Jose (6) at Vancouver (3), 8:30 p.m. on TSN

The Canucks seem to be the favourite in this one despite the fact that starting goaltender Cory Schneider's status is questionable. Roberto Luongo will start in net tonight while Antti Niemi should go for the Sharks. The Canucks are missing forwards David Booth and Manny Malhotra as well as defenceman Chris Tanev. Defenceman Jason Demers is out for San Jose, and former Flame Scott Hannan could draw back into the lineup.

PLAYOFFS!!!1! Day One Open Thread

2013-05-01T00:11:48Z

Ahhh, the playoffs. I would be easy for Flames fans to forget what springtime hockey is like, were it not for the Canucks keeping our hatred and desire to watch alive and the great number of people who will surely be cheering for Jarome Iginla and the Penguins in this year's run.

But no matter how much you warm up to a team during those two months in the early summer, no matter how much you want to see Iggy or Robyn Regehr or Jay Bouwmeester hoist that cup, it will never be quite the same as seeing your own team achieve the same feat. And we all the know the Flames are practically light years away from doing so.

So for the time being, here's a short preview of tonight's action:

St. Louis Blues (4) vs. Los Angeles Kings (5), 6:00 p.m. MT on CBC

Despite the fact that the Kings failed to secure home ice advantage in this series, they seem to be considered the favourite to win this one by most. I think this will be a real tough series because both teams are pretty evenly matched offensively and defensively, but I think the Kings advance here, they just have more potential firepower to get the job done offensively. Plus, I have three Kings in my playoff pool.

Players to watch: Former Flames Jay Bouwmeester, Robyn Regehr, Jordan Leopold and Adam Cracknell, ex-Oiler whipping boy Dustin Penner, Anze Kopitar, Blues rookie Vladimir Tarasenko (who is a healthy scratch tonight as T.J. Oshie returns to the lineup).

Chicago Blackhawks (1) vs. Minnesota Wild (8), 6:00 p.m. MT on CBC

I have a hard time seeing this series going any longer than four or five games, especially if Niklas Backstrom is injured (CBC cameras showed him limping off the ice during warmups), but Josh Harding getting the start in the playoffs for the Wild will be an inspirational story after he was diagnosed with MS last fall. Jason Pominville will not play tonight as he is still recovering from a concussion. The Blackhawks scored 33 more goals than the Wild in the regular season and allowed 25 less.

Players to watch: Josh Harding, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, pretty much everyone on the Blackhawks.

Anaheim Ducks (2) vs. Detroit Red Wings (7), 8:30 p.m. MT on TSN

The Red Wings are not what they used to be, but they're certainly not dead yet. The Anaheim Ducks are a prime example of a team that rode the percentages in a shortened season and finished much higher than they likely would have in an 82-game season. Both teams have some difference makers in the lineup and the Ducks have the required forward depth for a potential playoff run. I think I like their chances better in net, too.

Players to watch: Former Flames Matt Lombardi and Toni Lydman, Danny DeKeyser, Teemu Selanne, Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit's kid line of Damien Brunner, Joakim Andersson and Gustav Nyquist.

Go Kings and Blackhawks!

Looking Back and Playoff Picks

2013-04-30T02:30:01Z

(click here for last year's predictions and here for last year's recap)

1. Jarome Iginla's 30-goal streak will come to an end - and he will miss 30 even if it's pro-rated for 82 games.

Pro-rated, Iggy got 26 goals.

2. Sven Baertschi, Mikael Backlund and TJ Brodie will combine for 50 points this season.

40 points, but had they all played, say, 35 games they would've got 50.

3. They will also play at least 120 games between the three of them.

99 games. At 120 games, they would've produced 49 points.

4. Miikka Kiprusoff finishes with a .921 EVSV%.

Haha ooooh boy. .889 EVSV% for Kipper this year. That's a difference of 18 goals, or, 6 points.

5. Dennis Wideman will disappoint, contributing less than 15 points and he will get killed defensively.

22 points for Wideman. I was actually rather pleased with his play this season.

6. Curtis Glencross' SH% will stay above 15% for the year, because he is insane.

16.3%.

7. Jiri Hudler will score 20 points this season, but will suffer on the advanced side of things without Henrik Zetterberg.

This was kind of a gimmie.

8. The Flames' goal differential will be at least +10.

Heh. -32, much of which was caused by nothing more than crap goaltending.

9. The team will dominate on Saddledome ice, but will be just under .500 on the road.

They had a good home record, but the 13-gamer on the road was terrible.

10. Bob Hartley's deployment of players will actually make some sense.

Yes, actually.

11. Anton Babchuk, Roman Horak and Steve Begin will play less than 20 games combined this year.

Uh-uh. 63.

12. Jay Feaster will once again stand pat at the deadline except for one depth move.

Well, I guess if you don't include the days before the trade deadline I was right.

13. Roman Cervenka won't be a number one centerman, but he'll be a decent enough number two - and that's good enough for me.

I thought Cervenka was okay this season. Apparently he's not a centerman though, so...

14. Leland Irving will have a disastrous season, finishing with a EVSV% of under .910.

Haha man he's terrible. .884, costing the team 9 goals and 3 points.

15. As a result, the team will replace him with Henrik Karlsson, who will play a couple of games and get a couple of wins.

Nope.

16. Cory Sarich will be the default #6 man, which is annoying as all hell given the $2 million he'll be making this season.

Injuries and eventually trades made this untrue but Sarich was rarely away from the bottom pairing.

17. Mike Cammalleri will bounce back in a big way this season, putting up at least 35 points.

32 points, but he also missed 4 games.

18. This will be the last season we see Matt Stajan in a Flames uniform.

To be determined, but I'd be shocked if he wasn't back this year.

19. This will be the last season we see Kipper in a Flames uniform.

Yup.

20. The Flames will perform better than Nashville, Dallas, Columbus, Phoenix, Colorado, Detroit and Edmonton - and thus will finish 8th in the conference, making it to the 2nd round before being eliminated in Iggy and Kipper's last hurrah.

Nope.

Now, let's take a look at the playoffs. Here's my picks:

CHI over MIN in 5

DET over ANA in 6

VAN over SJ in 6

LA over STL in 6

PIT over NYI in 4

OTT over MTL in 7

WSH over NYR in 5

BOS over TOR in 4

Go Pens.

Flames to Officially Draft Sixth Overall

2013-04-30T02:25:43Z

The Avs will have a top three pick for the third time in five years at the 2013 NHL Entry Draft in June after they were announced as the draft lottery winners, breaking the Edmonton Oilers' three-year streak of lotto luck.

The rest of the draft order for the non-playoff teams is as follows (via TSN):

1. Colorado Avalanche

2. Florida Panthers

3. Tampa Bay Lightning

4. Nashville Predators

5. Carolina Hurricanes

6. Calgary Flames

7. Edmonton Oilers

8. Buffalo Sabres

9. New Jersey Devils

10. Dallas Stars

11. Philadelphia Flyers

12. Phoenix Coyotes

13. Winnipeg Jets

14. Columbus Blue Jackets

The Flames will officially pick sixth overall, as was originally believed, as no team above them in the standings won the lottery, which is good. The Oilers will pick seventh, so the prospect of the Flames snatching a good player from right under their noses as punishment for them tanking the past three seasons is enough to make Flames fans salivate. Luck was never on their side with only a 6.2% chance of winning it all, but a small, gleaming sliver of hope was still there.

Regardless, sixth overall is not too shabby. It's the highest pick the Flames have had since they selected Dion Phaneuf at number nine in 2003, and drafting in the top ten means they'll have a pretty decent chance at landing a skilled player, assuming they don't go off the board. I'm not sure what the consensus is on the top five picks in this year's draft, but if another team reaches a bit like the Leafs possibly did with Morgan Rielly at number five last summer, the Flames could potentially find themselves with an even better player.

With two months still to go before the draft, there is a lot of time to evaluate talent and the needs that the Flames can and cannot address through the draft and via free agency in July with the cap space they have at their disposal. Overall I'm feeling optimistic for the time being, but we all know how quickly that can change.