Flames vs. Wild Game Thread
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The Alluring Mystery of the College Free Agent
Inspired by this post by Parallex, I've decided to attempt to tackle the mystery of the college free agent.
Disclaimer: I am not going to pretend for a second that I know the first thing about NCAA hockey, so please try to forgive any ignorance or gross misunderstandings on my part and feel free to correct me.
The risk of signing an undrafted college free agent is virtually the same as that of signing any other established NHL free agent, with the exception of, depending on the age of the player in question, potential for future development. At any rate, the risks are certainly equal to those of drafting a player based on his numbers in high school or junior hockey--it's no guarantee that that player is going to replicate that success at the NHL level. Unless you're dealing with a special player like Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin, you're probably looking at about the same time frame for player development, if not less because of the age of most college players signed by NHL teams tends to range from 20-24 as opposed to 18 or 19 for drafted players.
The success of undrafted college players signed to NHL contracts as UFAs has been well documented. Martin St. Louis and Dan Boyle both won a Stanley Cup with the Lightning and Brian Rafalski has three Cups to his name with the Devils and Red Wings. Chris Kunitz, Dustin Penner, and Andy McDonald were all important contributors to Anaheim's 2007 Cup victory, and Kunitz also won a championship with the Penguins last season. Although Bryan Murray was largely responsible for building that winning Ducks team, Brian Burke seems to have carried an affinity for college free agents into his tenure with the Leafs, having already signed Tyler Bozak, Viktor Stalberg, and Christian Hanson to entry-level deals. Rene Bourque was also an undrafted college player before eventually signing with the Blackhawks.
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Flames/Sharks Post-game: This team is trying to kill me
Or "how I have yet to stop panicking and learn to love the late third period collapse," or as my co-worker calls it: "making it interesting."
A win is a win, and this was a big one. The Flames were fortunate enough to get the Sharks on the second night of back-to-back games during San Jose's post-olympic slump or as some are calling it "playoff preparation," and they capitalized on the Sharks' defensive miscues early and in a timely fashion, which would prove to be crucial in the game's dying minutes. Fear The Fin is calling this game one of Dan Boyle's worst as a Shark.
Despite the shot clock favouring the Sharks in the first period, I thought the Flames did a good job keeping the Sharks to the outside and limiting any especially dangerous chances. The best scoring chance for the Sharks probably came in the opening minute and could have been disastrous but Kipper was there with two great saves to stop San Jose from taking the early lead. Counting those first two chances that the Sharks had, I would say they probably only had one other potentially dangerous scoring chance and maybe four or five altogether.
I'm not entirely sure of the criteria for counting scoring chances, but by my eye, the Flames may have had about the same, if not one or two less. Despite not scoring on their opening powerplay, the pressure the Flames generated on it lead to their first goal with Iginla open ad headed to the net (what a novel concept!) and directing the puck in. A mid-second period powerplay provided some quality chances as well, and resulted in a goal shortly after. Both were nearly negated by an abysmal third-period man advantage shortly after the Sharks scored to pull within two, but I'll take two above-average powerplays per game, at this point.
Eric Nystrom is on a tear. He has goals in back-to-back games and points in three of his last five. He already has a career high in goals (9) and points (16) and at twenty-seven years old, is evolving into a dependable two-way player. I think you know your defence is having a bad night when he manages to sneak in behind them and score. I like to think of him as a young Craig Conroy. Speaking of our Elder Statesman, his performance in the faceoff circle has been nothing short of inspiring recently, as he won 100% of his draws against Detroit. In fact, the whole team has improved in the faceoff circle recently; debate over the importance of the faceoff all you will, but a higher faceoff percentage leads to greater puck possession, which ultimately drives positive results, in most cases.
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Flames vs. Sharks Game Thread
Sitting in the back of a carMusic so loud I can't tell a thingThinking 'bout what to sayAnd I can't find the linesBig Star - Back of a Car
The Flames return to their uncomfortable home this evening, still trying to unlock the mysteries of a desultory home record, still trying to fix the apparently unfixable, still too close to nowhere. The win over the Avalanche was certainly nice enough, in that losing the first four games of the season series to Colorado has been one the causes for the standings ditch the club is lying in at the moment, but it's no end. The disappointments of earlier this week still have matters on a very fine edge, with any future loss another merciless shovelful on the grave.
Tonight, the Flames meet a club that sent them to the signature loss of their year, a night where the phrase "one-way traffic" wasn't a strong enough descriptive for the display on ice. Calgary will face the visitors from the Bay absent yet another useful player as well, negating some of the advantages of the depth added since January. Desperate times, indeed.
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Thursday Thoughts and Reading: West Standings Based on WIN%
I was doing some browsing around the SBN blogosphere the other day to get acclimatized to the network and stumbled upon this excellent post by Mr. Plank at Fear The Fin, coincidentally, the Flames' opposition tomorrow evening. He discusses San Jose's lack of success against playoff teams this season throughout the post, but I was more interested in this chart. What he's done here is compiled a chart showing the Reconstructed Western Conference Standings based on the winning percentage of the top nine teams in the West against Western playoff opponents, excluding games that have gone to a shootout, which can be found under the GSO column.
Reconstructed Western Conference Standings
| # | TEAM | GP | GSO | GF/G | GA/G | G DIF. | W | L | WIN% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago |
24 |
6 | 3.03 |
2.27 | +0.76 | 16 | 8 | 66.6% |
| 2 | Detroit |
28 |
4 | 2.78 | 2.53 | +0.25 | 17 | 11 | 60.7% |
| 3 | Vancouver |
24 |
4 | 3.25 | 2.43 | +0.82 | 14 | 10 | 58.3% |
| 4 | Phoenix |
18 |
9 | 2.15 | 2.33 | -0.18 | 9 | 9 | 50.0% |
| 5 | Nashville |
30 |
1 | 2.52 | 2.87 | -0.35 | 14 | 16 | 46.6% |
| 6 | San Jose |
22 |
6 | 2.89 | 2.89 | E | 10 | 12 | 45.4% |
| 7 | Colorado |
21 | 5 | 2.42 | 2.88 | -0.46 | 9 | 12 | 42.8% |
| 8 | Calgary |
26 |
3 | 2.31 | 2.69 | -0.38 | 11 | 15 | 42.3% |
| 9 | Los Angeles |
25 | 4 | 2.34 | 2.86 | -0.52 | 9 | 16 | 36.0% |
As you can all see, the change for the Flames isn't that dramatic, they jump from ninth to eighth and into a playoff position with a 42.3% winning percentage, but if one ever wanted a partial explanation as to why this team is in ninth place in the West to begin with, look no further than their goal differential and, of course, the fact that they are three games under .500 against opponents in a playoff position. Those Chicago games, that loss to the Sharks, those losses to Colorado--it adds up. Including games against Eastern Conference playoff opponents and overtime/shootout games, the Flames are 17-17-9 against all playoff teams this season.
This chart puts Calgary, a team that has vastly underachieved, depending on who you ask, with Colorado, a team that has vastly overachieved this season. The Avs fall from fifth to seventh in the West due to their goal differential and ultimately, their record against playoff opponents, also three games under .500. I know that there have been many examples of statistical analysis done to expose the Avs for the bunch of lucky overachieving punks that they really are, and this chart drives the point home. As pointed out in the post, not all teams have played the same number of games against Western playoff opponents, so they have varying numbers of games left against said opponents. The Flames have six games left against Western playoff teams, and seven including a date with the Capitals at the end of March.
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Col/Cgy Post-Game - A Negative Look at a Positive Result
OK, we know we're supposed to drown our sorrows after a loss by tossing a pint or two and composing haiku upon haiku in the post-game comments. It's easy to figure out how to react. But do we know how we're supposed to celebrate after a win? A win that looked like that? Sure, after the Ottawa game I noted that I finally found out what it felt like to be cheering for the Avs. But I didn't mean I wanted to feel like that after every game. Hell, we managed to out-Colorado Colorado tonight, which is no mean feat. I want to keep feeling superior to Avs fans for having to watch that hockey all the time, but the Flames are starting to play that way all the time too. And, by the way, don't let tonight's result fool you, the Avs are going to the playoffs and the Flames aren't. Not if the next three weeks look like this game.
Why am I so down after a win? I really don't know. Let's analyze a bit and see if I can feel better after that.
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A Brief Introduction
Hello everybody! I'm happy that I have the pleasure of introducing myself here after a Flames victory. My name is Hayley and I will be the new Managing Editor here at M&G. Some of your might have read my previous work at my site Join The Rush. I've been a long-time reader of this site and was thrilled when I got offered the job here. Of course I'm a little nervous about taking the reigns after Kent did such great work here, but I think it'll be a good challenge and a great experience. I'm looking forwards to getting to know all of you and am really excited about the prospect of the further growth of this site. It's going to be a bit of a learning experience and it might take me a little while to get a hang of things, so if you have any questions, concerns, advice, or criticisms don't hesitate to contact me at hazel.mutch@hotmail.com or hayley.mutch@gmail.com
I've received a very warm welcome from the SBN family and I can't wait to get started!
Go Flames Go! Onwards to the post-season...maybe
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Flames vs. Avalanche Game Thread
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