2012 NHL Trade Deadline: Utter Blasphemy (Or Why I'd Take Jeff Carter Over Rick Nash)
by ArikJames on Feb 16, 2012 2:45 PM PST
in The Ministry of Features
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PrintThe popular opinion seems to be that Jeff Carter is a whiny baby quitter who's injury prone and signed to an awful contract while Rick Nash is an elite player who's worth the world. Nothing could be more wrong.
With both Columbus stars theoretically available at the trade deadline, the talk has shifted from "I'm not sure I'd want Jeff Carter" to "WOWEE DO I SURE WANT RICK NASH", seemingly without regard to actual production and future production. While that reaction shift is certainly entertaining, it's also off base for several reasons: production, contract, "reputation", and value of draft picks.
Production
Ask any hockey fan who's a better player, Nash or Carter, and they'll almost always respond with Nash. While the relative merits of defensive play and underlying stats can be debated, I'll focus on the counting stats since they're more widely accepted. Since 2008-09 (the time when Carter came into his own) Rick Nash has scored at a 0.88 points/game clip while Jeff Carter has clocked in at 0.85 points/game. Not exactly a world of difference in skill there.
Contract
This always seems to be the sticking point for most fans. Jeff Carter has an "ugly" contract while Nash's contract is simply ignored (probably because it's uglier still but that hardly fits the narrative). The fact of the matter is that Carter's contract is actually pretty good aside from the length, and even that's manageable. Rick Nash has a cap hit of $7.8M. Yes. A player who has scored more than 70 points in his NHL career exactly one time has a cap hit of nearly $8M. Carter's? $5.3M. That's a difference of over $2M a year in cap space- enough to sign quality depth player to augment the team. The sort of player the Blue Jackets could really use this year.
The real salary doesn't exactly tip in Nash's favor either: while his deal actually gets more expensive at the end ($8.2M/year) Jeff Carter's gets significantly lower, ending at an easily buried $2M. Even in 2018-19, when he's probably on a downhill slope, it's at $5M, the same amount Brian Rolston is earning this year. Carter's deal might be long, but it's both manageable and, well, a good deal.
Reputation
This is probably the other big issue for fans. Everyone knows Carter isn't a team player. Everyone knows Carter is injury prone. Everyone knows Rick Nash is an emotional and physical rock. How much of that is accurate (and how much matters?)
The following is a table of their games played over the last four seasons. Guess which one is "injury prone".
| GP | GP |
|---|---|
| 82 | 80 |
| 82 | 78 |
| 74 | 76 |
| 80 | 75 |
If you couldn't figure it out by the point I'm making, Jeff Carter is on the left. To be fair, I'm not including this season, but this season is the only extended amount of time he's missed. This isn't Rick DiPietro or Ales Hemsky. This is a player who's spent the vast majority of his career healthy.
And about the attitude? Well, I have it on good faith that the "whispers" about Carter having a bad attitude are true, but that doesn't really deter me too much. He gave up a lot of money and options to stay in Philly only to be promptly shipped to one of the worst teams on the league and get injured. I have a bad attitude just thinking about it.
Value of Draft Picks
It's a foregone conclusion that Jeff Carter (and Rick Nash for that matter) would command at least a first round draft pick, but so many Flames fans seem to think that's the end of the world. I can understand where that view point comes from; Calgary finally has a high-ish draft pick who promptly develops into a stud player- in the WHL, at least. Unfortunately, that's the wrong way to look at draft picks. Sven Baertschi isn't indicative of 13th overall picks. He's an exception to the norm. Look at the players chosen around him and how they're developing.
Drafting is important, but if you can get a young player on the right side of 30 for a pick and prospect or so, you're making a good deal. Nothing is proven about prospects or draft picks until they have a legitimately good NHL season, and it's important to remember that. If I recall, the latest stats show that a 1st round pick has approximately an 80% chance of being a career NHL player. That's not "superstar" or "first liner". That just means they'll stick around for a full career, like Chuck Kobasew. The chances of a mid first round draft pick turning into a star are even lower.
It seems unlikely Calgary will acquire Rick Nash or Jeff Carter, but if Jay Feaster finds himself talking to Scott Howson, I hope he asks after a center, despite popular opinion.
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You can not quantify character or psychological disposition. Many a highly skilled player goes selfish loses will to win. The list is long and their attractiveness in a team game with young and impressionable players around can not be understated.
Many are mystified by the Capitals state of affairs. Why is that team doing so poorly? Why is no one, and I mean no one, interested in Semin? Look at his stat lines.
Nash doesn’t fit the Flames at all. He would have no place as long as Iginla is here but one can easily throw out about a dozen teams and you can see his fit. Carter is a different bag of tricks and it is all about the Heatley factor.
Even if you can step back and say you totally emphathize with Jeff Carter it doesn’t change the fact that a player that doesn’t want to play for your team is one of the worst situations to have. It is something that Howson should have carefully considered before doing the original trade.
Carter has a lot of question marks surrounding him now. Look at the Sens today, they are probably happy they dumped Heatley. The Sharks moved him fairly quick as well and on top of it Heatley’s team today the Wild is in free fall.
Do we know all the details of Heatley’s issues, nope? But I wouldn’t want him on the Flames either…
Carter is a risk, plain and simple and everyone knows it which is why Howson can’t get an offer even close to what he gave up for him.
Now Nash, you know what you are going to get with Nash. The difference between the ears is huge and certainty vs uncertainty is a grand canyon size chasm when it comes to players on a ten year contract.
Consider contributing to Wiki if you can. It has come a long way since its inception in quality and its founders have resisted attempts to commercialize it. Lets keep it alive with a few dollars each.
I’m not really sure I get what you’re saying:
You start by pointing out that you can’t quantify “character” or “disposition” (two things that we can only speculate at regardless of quantifiability since neither of us know Carter) then go on to nearly do so anyways.
The Wild were a not very good team regardless and that has little to do with Heatley’s known issues. Honestly you can’t even compare the situations since Heatley willingly signed with Ottawa then pitched a fit til he was traded. Carter signed with Philly under the impression he’d be there for life until he was traded without being told anything was happening until it was basically done.
And to blame the Caps current woes on Semin is hilarious. Sure, he’s been awful this year, but he’s not the issue on the team. Goaltending and coaching are the issues.
The fact is, to make it to this level, you have to be a highly motivated person. Skill alone won’t allow you to succeed in the NHL- you need to have an absurd work ethic that most people would rather not deal with.
By quantification I mean empirical counting and measurement. How are we to determine the leadership numeric value of Iginla vs Semin? How can we empirically measure this and assign a numerical value to it?
Barring some kind of MRI on the brain in identical or similar situations how can you non-subjectively evaluate it?
Yet it has not stopped psychologists who use behaviorism and other observational methods to analyze psychological aspects of athletes. Given the conditioning of elite athletes it is recognized that physically the abilities of these athletes is very close. What differentiates a Gold medal winner from a Bronze is psychology. Just because it is difficult to measure does not mean it should be disregarded.
This is a fascinating study that was done in New York City comparing one their elite private schools (Riverdale) to KIPP Academy School in the South Bronx. Despite “test score” success at KIPP in the South Bronx it was not I.Q. that was necessarily indicative to success in college. It is a very lengthy New York Times article but fascinating to read.
Levin watched the progress of those KIPP alumni, he noticed something curious: the students who persisted in college were not necessarily the ones who had excelled academically at KIPP; they were the ones with exceptional character strengths, like optimism and persistence and social intelligence. They were the ones who were able to recover from a bad grade and resolve to do better next time
Observing Matt Stajan I see in his face a player who is down on himself with low confidence. A smiling Iggy is a stirring of optimism, Kipper’s steely eyes focus, Cammy’s enthusiasm – I don’t think these personality traits are irrelevant.
Carter has already illustrated a negative attitude not positive, already illustrated a lack of persistence in accepting his new team and working hard with the drop in his performance this year. A huge assumption that is made by all the advocates of getting him is that he will return to his Flyer form. This may not happen, it is simply put a risk.
Consider contributing to Wiki if you can. It has come a long way since its inception in quality and its founders have resisted attempts to commercialize it. Lets keep it alive with a few dollars each.
1 small disagreement
Yo Arik,
I liked your article but one little thing is that when you compared the scoring stats you have to remember that Carter played for a very potent team and Nash doesn’t. I think there is merit to that point.
I don’t really agree with Mitch fully either pointing to Heatley. Carter was an olympian as was Heatley and I believe both will be again. Isn’t Heatley’s problems still from his Atlanta days and right now the coach having the most issue in Wild land?
With this being Jarome’s team and his dressing room you can bet that intangible will play the biggest role in any player that the Flames acquire.
Look at Joker now… his bad rap was really nothing and he’s playing an awesome 2 way game.
You got to give it a shot…
While I see what you’re saying re: team quality, it’s a double edged sword. Because Nash didn’t have a good team, he played a LOT more to make up for the lack of skill elsewhere, giving him more minutes to put up numbers.
I don’t know about him playing a LOT more.
Carter average ice time
08-09: 20:57
09-10: 19:18
10-11: 18:15
11-12: 19:49
Nash average ice time
08-09: 21:10
09-10: 20:56
10-11: 18:56
11-12: 19:25
The amounts that the two of them played isn’t all that difference. Not enough to nullify the amount of talent Carter had around hin
Sign me up. Get Jeff Carter on board and let’s get this playoff train moving. If Jokinen can be signed for a reasonable contract in addition, the Flames would FINALLY have respectable top 2 centers. With Jones/Backlund doing duty on line 3, this would bode very well for the team in the coming seasons.
Please let this happen.
Nash vs Carter
One thing we should acknowledge is that both players were on teams at different ends of the talent spectrum.
Nash carried the offensive load while Carter was a cog in an offensive machine. Albeit a very important cog.
As far as possession, they both seem to be drivers of play on their teams while playing reasonably tough minutes. Carter’s possession numbers are better though.
The one thing that is hard to quantify is how much attention Nash gets from shutdown lines and pairings versus what Carter faced given how many other weapons Philly had. We can use QoC metrics, but other teams could essentially key on Nash, while Carter frequently played with more dangerous wingers.
And by the way, anyone who says Nash doesn’t fit because of Iggy, never watched them on the same line in the Olympics. That’s a dream line.
As for contracts, you’re essentially trading term for cap hit. Nash’s deal runs out 4 years earlier than Carter’s but obviously is a much bigger hit. Carter is morely likely to earn his yearly cap hit, but I like Nash better as a player.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
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