Who's Getting Their Teeth Kicked In? The Mid-Season Advanced Stats Report

by ArikJames on Jan 6, 2012 1:00 PM PST in The Official Office of Statistics

I ran a similar report to this about 1/5 of the way into the season, but now that we have a larger sample size and a better idea of what this team really is this season, re-running the spreadsheet seems like a smart thing to do. Table after the jump.

NAME	GP	TOI/60	CORSI REL	CORSI ON	Ozone%	Fin Ozone%	EXP CORSI Rel	EXP CORSI ON	Bal CORSI Rel	Bal CORSI On
MIKAELBACKLUND	27	12.81	12.1	4.34	44	46.8	-2.85	-4.98	14.95	9.32
T.J.BRODIE	28	14.37	16.4	6.26	52.4	53.4	2.08	2.38	14.32	3.88
CORYSARICH	26	13.62	10.5	4.07	46.7	50.2	-1.11	-2.62	11.61	6.69
LEESTEMPNIAK	42	12.73	10.8	4.15	47.9	52.6	-0.36	-1.53	11.16	5.68
MATTSTAJAN	27	10.02	8.6	7.54	52.7	50	2.22	2.63	6.38	4.91
TIMJACKMAN	42	8.89	6.1	1.12	48.8	51.8	0.17	-0.72	5.93	1.84
TOMKOSTOPOULOS	41	9.91	4.4	-0.89	46.7	50.7	-1.11	-2.62	5.51	1.73
BLAKECOMEAU	38	12.48	7.5	0.38	52.7	54	2.22	2.63	5.28	-2.25
CHRISBUTLER	42	17.41	3.1	-1.81	45.6	48.4	-1.81	-3.60	4.91	1.79
JAYBOUWMEESTER	42	18.89	2	-2.57	46.2	49.6	-1.42	-3.06	3.42	0.49
DEREKSMITH	32	14.4	3.7	0	50.9	54.1	1.34	1.13	2.36	-1.13
ALEXTANGUAY	33	13.21	-2	-4.27	46.7	46.4	-1.11	-2.62	-0.89	-1.65
JAROMEIGINLA	42	15.74	-4.2	-6.63	47.9	49.1	-0.36	-1.53	-3.84	-5.10
RENEBOURQUE	38	12.33	-4.8	-7.68	50.3	48.8	1.02	0.61	-5.82	-8.29
BRENDANMORRISON	26	12	-8	-8.65	45.5	52.3	-1.87	-3.69	-6.13	-4.96
OLLIJOKINEN	42	14.27	-6.1	-8.11	48.8	51	0.17	-0.72	-6.27	-7.39
ROMANHORAK	36	10.7	-7.3	-11.84	50	47.9	0.86	0.34	-8.16	-12.18
CURTISGLENCROSS	40	13.51	-7.1	-8.66	51.6	50.7	1.70	1.72	-8.80	-10.38
MARKGIORDANO	23	15.94	-8.9	-9.16	51.2	48.2	1.49	1.39	-10.39	-10.55
SCOTTHANNAN	42	16.81	-13.6	-12.66	48.3	48.4	-0.12	-1.17	-13.48	-11.49

A quick explanation of what you're looking at: CORSI Rel is CORSI adjusted for the strength of the team, EXP CORSI Rel and EXP CORSI ON are what we should expect players with those zone starts to have CORSI-wise (simply put, the league norm for that zone start percentage), and Bal CORSI Rel and Bal CORSI ON are the numbers you get when you compare the expected CORSI numbers to the raw CORSI numbers. In other words, the most important column on the chart is Bal CORSI Rel, as it adjusts a players CORSI for both team strength and zone starts. That's also the column this table is sorted by.

General Observations

TJ Brodie and Mikael Backlund have been exceptional. Brodie in particular, given the next point...
Cory Sarich's numbers are not to be mistaken as causality, but rather correlation. Why is that? Because he's partnered with TJ Brodie who manages to keep Sarich's underlying numbers look pretty, despite the awful play by the old vet.
While his numbers have come down a bit, Stempniak is still one of the best forwards on the Flames. (Alex, I'll have "Things that would have made me laugh during the offseason for $1000")
Hannan is still terrible.
Babchuk didn't meet the minimum games played (20), but his numbers almost make Hannan's look good. They were worse than twice as bad.
As usual, the Flames strength comes not from the top lines, but from the bottom lines. Kostopoulos, Jackman, and Stajan make up what's likely the best 4th line in the league.
Horak's underlying numbers are still rough, but they've improved since the beginning of the season.
Looks like Backlund is taking the tough zone starts; people wonder why he doesn't score- that's why.
Jarome Iginla should absolutely in no way have a sub 50% offensive zone start ration. Ever. If that's not reason to fire Sutter, I don't know what is.

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I think you have to be fair here. If you are explaining away Sarich’s number because he is paired with Brodie why not do the same thing with Backlund who is paired with Stempy and Comeau.

It doesn’t take much to see Sarich’s mistakes, they are common and all over the place, so you have to jump in and explain his sky high Corsi.

But watching games when is Backlund mentioned? How soft is he on the puck? Stempy and Comeau are very noticeable and mentioned all the time during games. I just don’t see an exceptional Mikael Backlund out there this season.

If Sarich is benefiting from playing with Brodie, the same holds with Backlund with Stempy and Comeau. You have to be fair. In watching games you see the impact of Comeau with his speed and hitting, same with Stempy – but do you even hear Backlund’s name mentioned?

Do you really even notice him?

Consider contributing to Wiki if you can. It is has come a long way since its inception in quality and its founders have resisted attempts to commercialize it. Lets keep it alive with a few dollars each.

by Mitch Smith on Jan 6, 2012 1:23 PM PST reply actions

Actually, I do. He’s not a high event forward (see this: http://jetsnation.ca/2011/8/29/player-types-high-event-and-low-event) but he’s solid. Moves things in the right direction without making a lot of mistakes

Also, Backlund and Comeau don’t spend a whole lot of time together. Lately Backlund has been with Jackman and Kostopolous and before that it was Stempniak and Bourque. Also the difference in Comeau’s and Backlund’s numbers should be a giveaway that Backlund drives the bus when they are together.

Matchsticks and Gasoline

by ArikJames on Jan 6, 2012 1:54 PM PST up reply actions

Fair enough, the link doesn’t work but I understand the perspective.

I was satisfied with Back’s rookie season, always saw his strength as being a smart player and he is positionally sound. He is not noticeable in a bad way either to be fair. He doesn’t take dumb penalties, in position etc…

The thing is though, at the bottom line he has 124 NHL games under his belt and I guess I expected more. More of something. He is too young to write him off at this point and I guess he isn’t Kyle Turris bad or anything but he definitely looks cavalier out there. Responsible perhaps but still cavalier.

by Mitch Smith on Jan 6, 2012 2:41 PM PST up reply actions

at least hannan’s gone at the end of the year. can’t say the same for gio.

Matchsticks and Gasoline
Go Flames Go!
Draft Pick Tracker - Unsigned Draft Picks - Understanding Advanced Stats

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 6, 2012 2:26 PM PST reply actions

One important omission in my opinion here is quality of competition. By the looks of it, Brodie is last among Flames’ defensemen which may contribute heavily to his strong possession numbers. Backlund, however, faces the toughest competition after 20-13-12, so that his possession numbers are that good is really quite impressive for a centre of his age.

by Alexandre S on Jan 6, 2012 2:32 PM PST reply actions

QoC is important to take note of, however I think it’s less of a factor in a players possession stats than zone starts, which is why I use these hand compiled stats instead of things like CORSI Rel QoC.

But yes, absolutely important to keep in mind, especially with defensemen.

Matchsticks and Gasoline

by ArikJames on Jan 6, 2012 3:59 PM PST up reply actions

Fair enough, and for Backlund’s to have 44% ozone starts and to come out on top in corsi is again quite impressive for a player of his age.

by Alexandre S on Jan 6, 2012 5:24 PM PST up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Flames Schedule

Last 5 Games

Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Sat 04/07	W 5 - 2
Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Thu 04/05	W 3 - 2
@ Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Sat 03/31	OT - L 2 - 3
Colorado Mile High Hockey	Fri 03/30	L 1 - 4
Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Wed 03/28	L 0 - 3

Network Bar

Matchsticks and Gasoline -

We made fun of Luongo before it was cool