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Calgary Flames

Who’s Getting Their Teeth Kicked In? The Mid-Season Advanced Stats Report

Published

5 years ago

on

I ran a similar report to this about 1/5 of the way into the season, but now that we have a larger sample size and a better idea of what this team really is this season, re-running the spreadsheet seems like a smart thing to do. Table after the jump.

NAME GP TOI/60 CORSI REL CORSI ON Ozone% Fin Ozone% EXP CORSI Rel EXP CORSI ON Bal CORSI Rel Bal CORSI On
MIKAELBACKLUND 27 12.81 12.1 4.34 44 46.8 -2.85 -4.98 14.95 9.32
T.J.BRODIE 28 14.37 16.4 6.26 52.4 53.4 2.08 2.38 14.32 3.88
CORYSARICH 26 13.62 10.5 4.07 46.7 50.2 -1.11 -2.62 11.61 6.69
LEESTEMPNIAK 42 12.73 10.8 4.15 47.9 52.6 -0.36 -1.53 11.16 5.68
MATTSTAJAN 27 10.02 8.6 7.54 52.7 50 2.22 2.63 6.38 4.91
TIMJACKMAN 42 8.89 6.1 1.12 48.8 51.8 0.17 -0.72 5.93 1.84
TOMKOSTOPOULOS 41 9.91 4.4 -0.89 46.7 50.7 -1.11 -2.62 5.51 1.73
BLAKECOMEAU 38 12.48 7.5 0.38 52.7 54 2.22 2.63 5.28 -2.25
CHRISBUTLER 42 17.41 3.1 -1.81 45.6 48.4 -1.81 -3.60 4.91 1.79
JAYBOUWMEESTER 42 18.89 2 -2.57 46.2 49.6 -1.42 -3.06 3.42 0.49
DEREKSMITH 32 14.4 3.7 0 50.9 54.1 1.34 1.13 2.36 -1.13
ALEXTANGUAY 33 13.21 -2 -4.27 46.7 46.4 -1.11 -2.62 -0.89 -1.65
JAROMEIGINLA 42 15.74 -4.2 -6.63 47.9 49.1 -0.36 -1.53 -3.84 -5.10
RENEBOURQUE 38 12.33 -4.8 -7.68 50.3 48.8 1.02 0.61 -5.82 -8.29
BRENDANMORRISON 26 12 -8 -8.65 45.5 52.3 -1.87 -3.69 -6.13 -4.96
OLLIJOKINEN 42 14.27 -6.1 -8.11 48.8 51 0.17 -0.72 -6.27 -7.39
ROMANHORAK 36 10.7 -7.3 -11.84 50 47.9 0.86 0.34 -8.16 -12.18
CURTISGLENCROSS 40 13.51 -7.1 -8.66 51.6 50.7 1.70 1.72 -8.80 -10.38
MARKGIORDANO 23 15.94 -8.9 -9.16 51.2 48.2 1.49 1.39 -10.39 -10.55
SCOTTHANNAN 42 16.81 -13.6 -12.66 48.3 48.4 -0.12 -1.17 -13.48 -11.49

A quick explanation of what you're looking at: CORSI Rel is CORSI adjusted for the strength of the team, EXP CORSI Rel and EXP CORSI ON are what we should expect players with those zone starts to have CORSI-wise (simply put, the league norm for that zone start percentage), and Bal CORSI Rel and Bal CORSI ON are the numbers you get when you compare the expected CORSI numbers to the raw CORSI numbers. In other words, the most important column on the chart is Bal CORSI Rel, as it adjusts a players CORSI for both team strength and zone starts. That's also the column this table is sorted by.

General Observations

  • TJ Brodie and Mikael Backlund have been exceptional. Brodie in particular, given the next point…
  • Cory Sarich’s numbers are not to be mistaken as causality, but rather correlation. Why is that? Because he’s partnered with TJ Brodie who manages to keep Sarich’s underlying numbers look pretty, despite the awful play by the old vet.
  • While his numbers have come down a bit, Stempniak is still one of the best forwards on the Flames. (Alex, I’ll have “Things that would have made me laugh during the offseason for $1000”)
  • Hannan is still terrible.
  • Babchuk didn’t meet the minimum games played (20), but his numbers almost make Hannan’s look good. They were worse than twice as bad.
  • As usual, the Flames strength comes not from the top lines, but from the bottom lines. Kostopoulos, Jackman, and Stajan make up what’s likely the best 4th line in the league.
  • Horak’s underlying numbers are still rough, but they’ve improved since the beginning of the season.
  • Looks like Backlund is taking the tough zone starts; people wonder why he doesn’t score- that’s why.
  • Jarome Iginla should absolutely in no way have a sub 50% offensive zone start ration. Ever. If that’s not reason to fire Sutter, I don’t know what is.

by Arik Knapp

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