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Are the Flames the team where Shooting Percentage comes to die?


I was reading Ryan Lambert's latest at FN, and in particular his giving up on Jay Bouwmeester after having only scored 8 goals in 205 games. It occurred to me that this same feeling that a number of the Flames semi-recent acquisitions stepped into a shaft shooting wise after coming to Calgary did not only apply to Bouwmeester. I decided to put my perceptions to the test by looking at the shooting percentages of current Flames players with reasonably lengthy careers before coming to the Flames and with the Flames. Results after the jump.


These are in order of biggest drops percentagewise:

Matt Stajan

Before Calgary - 445 games played, 619 shots, 87 goals, 14.05 S%

After Calgary - 130 games played, 143 shots, 10 goals, 6.99% S%

That's a 7.06% drop - or he is shooting at nearly half the rate. Ouch.

Jay Bouwmeester

Before Calgary - 471 games played, 922 shots, 53 goals, 5.75 S%

After Calgary - 205 games played, 308 shots, 8 goals, 2.60 S%

He is shooting at less than half the rate he was before coming to Cowtown.

Alex Tanguay

Before Calgary - 450 games played, 683 shots, 137 goals, 20.06 S%

After Calgary (including games in Mtl and TB) - 401 games played, 563 shots, 93 goals, 16.55 S%

About a 3%, or 15% of his rate, drop here. Not the most significant but still, why?

Olli Jokinen

Before Calgary - 772 games played, 2231 shots, 229 goals, 10.21 S%

After Calgary (including his brief time as a NYR) - 221 games played, 629 shots, 52 goals, 8.27 S%

A little under a 2% drop, but that is nearly a 20% decline and over those sample sizes would still be outside what I would consider a pure artifact of variance.

Brendan Morrison

Before Calgary - 829 games played, 1481 shots, 187 goals, 12.63 S%

After Calgary - 91 games played, 122 shots, 13 goals, 10.66 S%

A smaller sample size than Jokinen and age effects may be playing a role here, but still part of the trend.

Curtis Glencross

Before Calgary - 71 games played, 112 shots, 16 goals, 14.29%

After Calgary - 259 games played, 487 shots, 68 goals, 13.96%

Sample size before he came to Calgary is definitely too small to say much about such a minute decline.

There are some increases though! Here they are from biggest to smallest:

Rene (Rainy) Bourque

Before Calgary - 183 games played, 365 shots, 33 goals, 9.04 S%

After Calgary - 249 games played, 673 shots, 88 goals, 13.08 S%

I wonder how much of that came from playing with Langkow - still, at least there is one contra case!

Tom Kostopoulos

Before Calgary - 475 games played, 614 shots, 49 goals, 7.98 S%

After Calgary - 99 games played, 107 shots, 10 goals, 9.35 S%

Tim Jackman

Before Calgary - 191 games played, 211 shots, 11 goals, 5.21 S%

After Calgary - 123 games played, 193 shots, 11 goals, 5.70 S%

Kosto and Jackman take so few shots and their increases are so marginal this is probably irrelevant.

Conclusions

I don't know if it is because most of these guys have been acquired as they moved past their primes or if there is something in the water. I don't think you can treat the declines of Bouwmeester, Stajan, Tanguay, Jokinen and Morrison as strictly artifacts of variance though. That's too big a sample over too long a period. The exception in Bourque I would chalk up as much to teamates and circumstances - he was buried deep in Chicago.

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