The Case for Trading Sven

First you say that Sven probably has at least one 80 point season in him, but could wind up as a 60-70 point two-way player. Then you imply that trading him for Carter would be a good way to get a proven high-end player in exchange for prospect, since prospects are always a gamble.

Jeff Carter has had exactly one 80 point season and hasn’t gotten more than 66 points in any other season despite being healthy for 80+ games in some of them. In his last four seasons he’s had 53, 84, 61, and 66 points, which makes that 84 stick out as a fluke. He’s also gotten just 17 points in 30 games this season. He’s a good player, no doubt, but is he really a proven high-end player?

Just for comparison, in his four seasons previous to when the Flames acquired him, Jokinen had point totals of 58, 89, 91, and 71. That stretch looks far better than anything Carter has ever put together in spite of the fact that Jokinen was a bit older. Of course, Jokinen was not the #1 center we were hoping for even though he has since turned into an excellent two-way player. With this in mind it is clear that Carter is not risk-free by any stretch of the imagination!

Jeff Carter is quite probably not even a Jokinen level talent and he looks like his career might be in a nose-dive. He’s as big a risk as Baertschi, if not bigger, and his upside isn’t as good because he’s a lot older. Quite frankly, I don’t think its irrational to value Sven more highly than Carter. These players are both risks, but Sven could have a lot more 60+ point seasons ahead of him than Carter does!

Of course, the real kicker is that Carter is a $5.2M cap hit through 2022! That is one lemon of a contract if he turns out to be a bust! In fact, it’s going to be a lemon of a contract in his later years even if he has some good years ahead of him! Imagine being in Scott Howson’s shoes right now. You picked up a proven 60-point/year player for a $5.2M cap hit per year on a contract that lasts for the next decade, and he puts up just 17 points in 30 games and then gets injured! Carter is going to be moved at any price. Howson doesn’t want him. If the Flames really want him, all they need to do is outbid the competition. That probably isn’t going to require trading Sven.

Amusing things in this comments section.
- Jokinen is an excellent 2- way player
- broken bones are weaker after proper recovery
- Sven has an 80 point season in him.

Calgary is too much of an old/young split to make good use of Carter’s peak years; Carter may end up becoming an injury case; Carter is on a huge contract; prime-aged players are incredibly expensive to acquire.

All of that combined means that trading a blue chip prospect for him is probably a bad idea. Especially when that prospect is of closer age to the next wave of potential core players for the Flames. I know we love to pooh-pooh all of those zany gamblers out there who have love affairs with prospects to an excessive extent, but the fact remains that there is such a thing as playing it too safe. If someone gives you a thousand dollars to invest and tells you that you have ten years to make your fortune with it, you don’t just throw it all into Microsoft stocks. Yes, you’re guaranteed to get some return, but the stock is so expensive that your overall reward won’t pan out in such a short period of time compared to the potential of something a little riskier.