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The Flames Feastaforphosis (not a dinosaur)

ST PAUL, MN - JUNE 24:  13th overall pick .Sven Baertschi by the Calgary Flames poses for a portrait during day one of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft at Xcel Energy Center on June 24, 2011 in St Paul, Minnesota. (EDITORS NOTE: Image has been digitally altered.)  (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

The Flames are definitely under transformation with Jay Feaster. He was criticized when he took over as Acting GM for doing nothing. For simply riding the team that Sutter built on its post December run to within a whisker of the playoffs. 

The shoe has dropped and the Flames have definitely entered Feastaforphosis. 

 

The mini-rebuild / retool that so many have called for may be here. In many ways it seems to have shocked some fans and is being treated with a lot of trepidation, which it should be. It is not being embraced with open arms despite so many calling for it.

 

Why?

 

Because fans overvalue established players and some may not realize what a rebuild really means, although it is probably sinking in. I can see the wheels turning. 

 

"Hey, wait a minute, if Regehr is only worth that, I am not sure if I want to trade him." 

 

This is where reality begins to bite, rarely if ever are fans happy to see proven players go for the unknowns of draft picks or young prospects. Outrage is always the initial reaction, even when these trades turn out excellent down the road. I remember the frustration when Joe Nieuwendyk was traded for some 11th overall pick named Jarome Iginla. The biggest outrage was when Theoren Fleury was traded for a couple wanna be's and a13th overall pick that turned out to be, yep, Robyn Regehr

 

Of course that is when it works, more often than not they don't turn out. Lets review recent events and see if we can read the tea leaves of what Jay Feaster is doing.

Star-divide

I'll admit I was surprised with the events leading up to July 1.

I honestly thought the Flames might tread water this year and do the big moves next off-season. See how the season played out in 2011-12 and then if the Flames were a non-playoff team watch the Regehr's, Langkow's, Sarich's go up on the block for picks / prospects at the trade deadline.

I anticipated changes this year to be mainly in management but the roster I thought would stay fairly stable. Feaster is not sitting tight though. So what are the big markers so far?

 

The Draft:

The old Sutter draft philosophy is out the window. Taking much smaller skill players. We've seen this before on other teams with limited success but it may be the wave of the future as the NHL continues to crack down on contact that results in injury.

 

The smaller, skilled player may not be checked out of the NHL or quickly take a career ending injury as has happened in the past. These players are years away though so this is a vision of a potentially smaller, faster Flames team. 

 

These draft picks are going to be probably several years away from playing and if they work out they will be on a post-Iginla Flames. John Gaudreau is a sleeper pick, high risk but I think Theo 2.0 when I see him. Small but you see the attitude in his eyes. 

 

Two Europeans in Sven Bartschi and Markus Granlund are just fine with me, especially Bartschi who was expected to go in the top ten by most, so the kid is a steal for the Flames but Rico Fata and Brent Krahn broke my spirit for following prospects long ago. 

 

 

The Buffalo Sabres Trade

 

For several years now the "Trade the Core" chant has been rolling around at different volume levels, well it happened but the Robyn Regehr trade is one that is a bit obscured. 

 

You have to step back from it to even attempt to make sense of it. It should probably be presented as Robyn Regehr + Ales Kotalik + 2012 2nd rounder for Chris Butler, Paul Byron and Cap Space (which will lead to another undetermined player through FA perhaps?)

 

Ales Kotalik being included is clear negative value to factor in. The Sabres are certainly the only team in the NHL that would consider giving Kotalik another chance. Lindsey Ruff knows him well and coached him when he played his best but still the Flames had to throw in a 2nd rounder to get rid of him.

 

I personally break the trade up in two parts. Kotalik as a salary dump + a 2nd rounder to Buffalo. Remember Kotalik could have been had for nothing on waivers but no one took him, not even the Sabres, so you know the Flames had to sweeten it to get rid of him.

 

Regehr is probably best seen as straight up for Chris Butler and Paul Byron and the outrage erupts. Like Fleury before him, this is simply the risk that you take going young. Fans always overvalue their players, especially the long-term franchise players. 

 

To prove this point, after the Mike Richards trade to the Kings for Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn I immediately inquired if they would have preferred Jarome Iginla instead of Mike Richards. Without exception the chorus from Kings fans was no way! Mike Richards is younger, cheaper and way better for the team going forward. 

 

Therefore, Jarome Iginla is not even worth Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds, maybe Iginla would get you just Schenn, now how do you all feel about that? This is what happens in a rebuild. 

 

The thing on the Regehr trade that is not up front and center is the fact that it added a lot of Cap space. This will likely translate into some kind of player the Flames would not have had a chance to get otherwise.

 

Clearly a primary goal of Feaster was to get out of the "Cap Jail" that Darryl Sutter left them in, to do it they had to sacrifice Robyn Regehr. 

 

 

Are the Flames Rebuilding ? 

 

This is really tough to say because they have sent a mixed message. On one hand they have extended Alex Tanguay for a 5 year term which is not indicative of a team on the rebuild. On the other hand they have traded a proven core player for two young and very unproven players which is indicative of a quasi-rebuild.

 

The Flames did not want draft picks which implies they are looking for prospects who are NHL ready. It is looking like they are going to push to be competitive for the foreseeable future. This is not a bad thing but the burn it to the ground crowd is not going to be happy, although they may have saw the return for Regehr as a frightening appetizer of what a rebuild and trading older players for prospects will look like. Hard to get those fan glasses off sometimes. 

 

The Flames have also swept the useless crumbs out of the already bare cupboards by not tendering qualifying offers to John Armstrong, Gord Baldwin, Hugo Carpentier, Josh Meyers and Matt Pelech and former first-round pick Kris Chucko is an unrestricted free agent whom the Flames won’t make an offer to.

 

So change is afoot, make no mistake. 

 

But then we hear these strong rumours of them attempting to sign Ryan Smyth which would be Sutter-like in not only not rebuilding but actually throwing away youth to get an older declining player. If Ryan Smyth had been traded to the Flames well then you would have been thinking Darryl Sutter was in a Jay Feaster body suit. 

 

 

Final Thoughts into July 1

 

A couple take-aways as the Flames progress into what will be a very interesting July 1--lets face it, who knows what they are going to do. Flames fans have enjoyed a exciting July 1 for years now. Previously the Flames looked handcuffed going into July 1, not anymore.

 

There is a few interesting players out there as UFAs, a few interesting options. At this point in time the Flames are a weaker team than they were last year without Regehr, so I am looking for something to strengthen the team. It should be interesting but I don't know how they can possibly top last year's July 1.

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Regehr is probably best seen as straight up for Chris Butler and Paul Byron and the outrage erupts. Like Fleury before him, this is simply the risk that you take going young. Fans always overvalue their players, especially the long-term franchise players.

The thing with this is that trading Fleury was a result of not being able to give him enough money, and he was traded for a player with high upside. Regehr was traded because the franchise over spent unwisely on other players, and the return was two players who will have limited developmental upside.

by Justin Azevedo on Jun 28, 2011 1:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Totally agree, the trade is all about opening up Cap space which is definitely an attempt to clean up the mess left by D Sutter, no way around it.

by Mitch Smith on Jun 28, 2011 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

The best the Flames can hope for is Butler turns out to be a top 4 D and Byron turns out to be a third line roster player AND they actually pick up someone decent with the extra cash they have now. Not holding my breath for the pick up with the extra cash but they have options now.

by Mitch Smith on Jun 28, 2011 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

warming to the acquistions

Like everyone else I was disappointed in the return, but on further study I am warming to these guys.

Butler played 3 years of college hockey and then only 27 games in the AHL in his first pro season before getting called up full time – how many of our prospects have done that ? He only turns 25 this fall and appears to be a better choice than Pardy and an upgrade over Mikkelson for the 3rd pair left d-man.

Byron showed steady improvement in the Q – 44 pts, 68, 99 and then has done the same in his 2 pro years 33 pts as a rookie and 53 last year. It is the progress that is encouraging. A 70 -75 pt season in the AHL this year would be great and a full time job next year.

I am willing to wait out the week to see what else is part of the strategy , because I don’t think he is done.

by PrairieStew on Jun 28, 2011 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

So many points of contention...where to start?

Azavedo’s already hit the first one, I would bring up…here we go….

John Gaudreau is a sleeper pick, high risk but I think Theo 2.0 when I see him. Small but you see the attitude in his eyes.

Really? Hasn’t been a star that small since and we got the one? It’s in his eyes!….

Therefore, Jarome Iginla is not even worth Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds, maybe Iginla would get you just Schenn, now how do you all feel about that?

Ridiculous speculation and ridiculous logic. Show your work.

But then we hear these strong rumours of them attempting to sign Ryan Smyth…

Exactly! What in the name of sweet baby Jesus is the plan? Are we rebuilding, re-tooling? The fact we were in on Smyth makes me shake my head.

…which brings me back to this statement that Azavedo touched on:

Because fans overvalue established players and some may not realize what a rebuild really means, although it is probably sinking in. I can see the wheels turning.
 
“Hey, wait a minute, if Regehr is only worth that, I am not sure if I want to trade him.”

Agreed, teams will overvalue veteran players. But I refuse to believe, given the other deals for veteran defenseman (of similar quality/who have lesser accomplishments than Reggie) that have gone down, this was all we could get.

He is 31, and while coming off knee problems is not old. He has four-five years, probably, of hockey left in him. By the way, here’s his resume…if we have forgotten what we have given up.

From Wiki:

Robyn Regehr (born April 19, 1980) is a Canadian professional ice hockey defenceman for the Buffalo Sabres of the National Hockey League (NHL). He was a first round draft pick of the Colorado Avalanche, selected 19th overall at the 1998 NHL Entry Draft, but was traded to Calgary while still playing junior hockey for the Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League (WHL). He was a member of the Canadian team at the 2006 Winter Olympics, and has won silver medals at the World Junior and Senior championships, as well as the championship at the 2004 World Cup of Hockey.

We got fucked again. Plain and simple.

"You said you didn't give a f#%k about hockey. And I never saw someone say that before..."

by TheBurnward on Jun 28, 2011 6:14 PM PDT reply actions  

Whoops, apologies to the man, Martin St. Louis. Point stands though.

"You said you didn't give a f#%k about hockey. And I never saw someone say that before..."

by TheBurnward on Jun 28, 2011 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

The rumored trade for a good chunk of the early season last year was Iginla for Schenn, Simmonds – I can find the old links if you want. The Richards trade included two of the players.

I asked Kings fans which they would prefer, given the same return, they didn’t even hesitate – Mike Richards easy.

On all the rest, I am the glass half full guy, its what I am paid for. Looking to read overly optimistic spins, I’m the man, looking to read negative articles, that’s not my job.

You can look at Gaudreau as another loser the Flames drafted or you can be optomistic, your choice, same with all the rest of your points. Its up to you, I can’t tell you what attitude to have about the team you cheer for…

by Mitch Smith on Jun 28, 2011 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know it’s funny- next to you I’m a goddamn pessimist; next to others a complete bright and sunny optimist. I prefer to be hopeful and try to see the best, but at my core I know what reality is and I have to accept that.

I guess there’s Arik the fan and Arik the analyst.

by ArikJames on Jun 28, 2011 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

“Negative” – may not have been the right word – analytical with an edge may have been the better comparison to my fluffy rainbow articles. : )

As the old guy, I used up my negative energy when the Cup team was dismantled in the 90s and that was worse than what we have now. I think the reason why so many are so hard on the Flames and management is simply the fact that people genuinely expected a Cup in Calgary, an elite team and the fact it was never even close has had a lot of blowback.

The reality is certainly sinking in at this point that the Flames are no where near that now, if they ever truly were (compared to the 80s team I would say no, they were never on the cusp, as many liked to think from 2004-09)

I went through the same thing in the 90s expecting the elite team of the 80s to stay in place. A middle of the pack team.

It is all relative and yes the Flames are a bubble playoff team but I think adjusting the glasses and realizing that being a bubble playoff team would be a a dream situation of success for a lot of teams out there is not the worst situation

The Flames are average, very average out of all 30 teams. It is all relative.

by Mitch Smith on Jun 29, 2011 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Negative. My negativity springs from their inability to make a logical move over the last three seasons or so.

"You said you didn't give a f#%k about hockey. And I never saw someone say that before..."

by TheBurnward on Jun 29, 2011 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

You didn’t like the UFA signings last off-season ? Bmo 725k, Tangs, 1.7 and Joker 3 million? All of them were illogical?

by Mitch Smith on Jun 29, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

BMo wouldn’t have been signed if Lankgow was ready, so Sutter totally lucked into that one. Trading away a player then signing him back with a movement clause for above what his value on the open market was on the first damn day is just fucking insane. I’ll give you Tangs.

by Justin Azevedo on Jun 29, 2011 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the reason why so many are so hard on the Flames and management…

Personally, I like to think that we’re hard on them because we have standards and aren’t the fans who blindly chanted “In Sutter We Trust” until the day he was fired.

by Parallex on Jun 29, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sutter is gone, time to move on.

I don’t think many dispute the team took a harsh downgrade in his last two years. Wilson had a great 6-part article on Sutter that deconstructs his tenure very well, along with the myth of him that perpetuated itself.

http://flamesnation.ca/2011/4/14/the-rise-and-fall-of-darryl-sutter-part-6-the-decline

Now Feasters’ moves are attempts to clean up the mess, Tangs and GlenX are good value signings. The Regehr trade sucks but it was to get Cap space.

If Oilers fans can be so giddy about the future when they are a totally unbalanced team with high skill wingers and nothing of note at C, D, and G how can Flames fans be so down when we still hold NHL level balance at all positions ?

Actually don’t answer that – lol

by Mitch Smith on Jun 29, 2011 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

I remember the rumours, but wasn’t that the offer from LA that we turned down?

"You said you didn't give a f#%k about hockey. And I never saw someone say that before..."

by TheBurnward on Jun 29, 2011 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t think it was ever officially offered, but it seems to me that that deal would be something Edwards would laugh at.

by Justin Azevedo on Jun 29, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

of

I think Regehr’s value would have been higher last summer. While he has not missed alot of games in his career, the fact is that GM’s know what kind of game he plays and it takes its toll; and there is risk there that wouldn’t be with some other guys, including some of the Free Agents.

Having seen the money thrown around this week though for Bieksa and Pitkanen, Regehr’s cap hit is looking like better value all the time, and I’m guessing Buffalo is congratulating themselves on getting Reggie relatively cheaply.

I am consoling myself with this : the top 2 salaries on the team benefit from this deal. Resigning Tanguay is important to Iginla; and moving Bouwmeester back to the left side ( if they do it) will make him a better defenseman.

by PrairieStew on Jun 28, 2011 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

He is 31, and while coming off knee problems is not old. He has four-five years, probably, of hockey left in him. By the way, here’s his resume…if we have forgotten what we have given up.

From Wiki:
Robyn Regehr (born April 19, 1980) is a Canadian professional ice hockey defenceman for the Buffalo Sabres of the National Hockey League (NHL). He was a first round draft pick of the Colorado Avalanche, selected 19th overall at the 1998 NHL Entry Draft, but was traded to Calgary while still playing junior hockey for the Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League (WHL). He was a member of the Canadian team at the 2006 Winter Olympics, and has won silver medals at the World Junior and Senior championships, as well as the championship at the 2004 World Cup of Hockey.
We got fucked again. Plain and simple.

What? We’re missing out on a player who played his hockey in Kamloops? oh noooo

by ArikJames on Jun 28, 2011 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just left that part in because…I likes to BURRRRNNNNN!!!!!

"You said you didn't give a f#%k about hockey. And I never saw someone say that before..."

by TheBurnward on Jun 29, 2011 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think it’s funny that no one ever calls me by my last name

by Justin Azevedo on Jun 29, 2011 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

It’s a professional thing- everyone I work with calls me “Knapp” because that’s what’s on my uniform. Same with Reggie.

by ArikJames on Jun 29, 2011 5:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

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