NHL Playoff Calls (East and West)

This is my second "Reasonably Early but Not Mathematically Absolute Playoff Confirms / Playoff Calls." The first predictions last week were only for the Western Conference.  The Eastern Conference is included this time.

EAST

Pt to 92

 

 

CALL

GP

GR

PTS

 

 

1

PHILADELPHIA

67

15

90

2

1

6.67%

IN

2

 WASHINGTON

69

13

88

4

2

15.38%

IN

3

 BOSTON

68

14

85

7

4

28.57%

IN

4

 PITTSBURGH

68

14

86

6

3

21.43%

IN

5

 TAMPA BAY

68

14

84

8

4

28.57%

IN

6

 MONTREAL

68

14

81

11

6

42.86%

7

 BUFFALO

67

15

74

18

9

60.00%

8

 NY RANGERS

69

13

74

18

9

69.23%

9

 CAROLINA

68

14

72

20

10

71.43%

10

 TORONTO

68

14

68

24

12

85.71%

11

 ATLANTA

68

14

68

24

12

85.71%

12

 NEW JERSEY

67

15

66

26

13

86.67%

13

 ISLANDERS

69

13

64

28

14

107.69%

OUT

14

 FLORIDA

68

14

63

29

15

107.14%

OUT

15

 OTTAWA

68

14

59

33

17

121.43%

OUT

WEST

Pt to 96

 

 

 

1

 VANCOUVER

69

13

97

-1

0

0.00%

IN

2

 DETROIT

68

14

88

8

4

28.57%

IN

3

 SAN JOSE

68

14

85

11

6

42.86%

4

 DALLAS

68

14

82

14

7

50.00%

5

 CHICAGO

68

14

81

15

8

57.14%

6

 LOS ANGELES

68

14

81

15

8

57.14%

7

 PHOENIX

69

13

81

15

8

61.54%

8

 CALGARY

70

12

81

15

8

66.67%

9

 ANAHEIM

68

14

79

17

9

64.29%

10

 NASHVILLE

68

14

78

18

9

64.29%

11

 MINNESOTA

69

13

77

19

10

76.92%

12

 COLUMBUS

67

15

71

25

13

86.67%

OUT

13

 ST LOUIS

68

14

71

25

13

92.86%

OUT

14

 COLORADO

67

15

60

36

18

120.00%

OUT

15

 EDMONTON

69

13

55

41

21

161.54%

OUT

 

The method is very simple and explained more after the break.

A point target threshold is established to make the playoffs – 96 points for the West – 92 points for the East. I try to make it a little high to be safe. From that point I look at the remaining games and the wins needed for each team to hit that point threshold and therefore make the playoffs.

At this point in the season with 10-15 games left it provides an early window into what various teams need to do to hit the target point (92 or 96) and which are reasonably out of reach. When you are in the final 15% of the season this method gives you an early, yet reasonable peek at what teams will be in the playoffs before they are mathematically confirmed.   

When you see that a team has 15 games left but needs 13 wins of those 15 to hit the threshold they are in pretty tough territory. Conversely when a team has 14 games left and only needs 4 wins to hit the point threshold they are essentially a lock in all but absolute math to at least make the playoffs. 

Why do this?

Well, I have done this for years in some form or another because as a fan it helps me strategically cheer for my team. I become a temporary fan at this point cheering teams I see as locks for being in or having no chance of getting in for the win against my team's competition. 

I have never missed on my calls for playoff teams so if I am calling your team OUT and it manages to get in by the end of the season, feel free to come by and give me the gears. Conversely if I call your team IN and they fall out feel free to come by and give me the gears as being a jinx. I've never missed when I do this at this point in the season. 

I was going to post this after tonight's games but after calculating things through, regardless of tonight’s outcomes it will not change the playoff calls of IN or OUT that I am making this morning.

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