Calgary Flames Prospects NHL Equivalencies: February Edition

Most Flames fans are feeling pretty down in the dumps about our prospects–both literal prospects and figurative ones.  So using Behind the Net's league equivalencies, I did the math and put together a table showing how each prospect would be expected to produce in the NHL over a full season right now.

In the table below (I’ll upload a Google Docs version at home so you can sort to your heart’s content) I’ve listed eleven Flames forward prospects and three defensive prospects (T.J. Brodie, John Ramage, Tim Erixon). For the more part I left out the defensemen since their job isn’t scoring, but with Brodie and Erixon in particular, I was curious how many points they’d put on the board over a full season, and John Ramage has a place in my heart.

The columns contain basic info like team and league, as well as the equivalencies. The first three NHLE entries are the straight numbers–not prorated at all. In other words, if the 48 games Ryan Howse is listed as playing were in the NHL, how many points he would score. The last column, “NHLE SEASON” is prorated for 82 games, a full NHL season.

My comments and thoughts after the table. (As a quick note, the equivalencies I used are as follows: SEL 0.78, WHL 0.30, AHL- 0.65*, WCHA and H-East 0.41)

Note: Click to enlarge

*Behind the Net offers two AHL equivalencies: 0.44 and 0.65. I used the latter for the players here, since the former is intended for AHL call-up type players rather than the developing prospects I have listed

• Tim Erixon is really, really good. Better than I realized, even when putting together my WJC preview piece
• T.J. Brodie is also really good. Hopefully he’ll get more time with the big club as the season winds down.
• I found the top two offensive prospects…surprising. Ryan Howse makes some sort of sense, at least. He was drafted in ’09, likely making this his last year in junior and thus giving him an edge, but Max Reinhart?
• More on Reinhart: not only is he leading the Kootenay Ice in points and goals in his post-draft season, but he’s doing it with scrubs as linemates; undrafted 20-year olds Kevin King and Matt Fraser are hardly the wingers dreams are made of. I think I have a new favorite sleeper prospect.
• Howse has slowed his torrid pace from earlier this season, but he’s still putting up a decent amount of goals, and frankly, that’s what the Flames need.
• I’d hardly start to expect too much of anyone else on this list. I wasn’t hoping for Nemisz or Bouma to light up the AHL, but something better than what they’ve given us would be nice.
• Theoretical Flames prospect D Brandon Gormley, who was drafted with the pick lost in the Olli Jokinen trade, is on pace for a full-season NHLE of 7-16-23. Kid’s gonna be good. Depressing.
• Theoretical Flames prospect Nail Yakupov, who’s expected to be #1 overall in 2012, has 70 points in 47 games. He’s on pace for an NHLE of 18-18-36…at the age of 17. Christ. And some of you wonder why I want to tank.

by Arik Knapp