Lee Stempniak Is How Good?
We spend a lot of time dwelling on the faults of the Flames, so much so that we (and by we, I mean "I") get accused of not even being Flames fans. So I'd like to spend some time today dwelling on who the best players based on advanced stats are this season.
And as a side note, I'd like to remind you that you are NOT tripping when you read the list of names after the jump.
Yeah, this list is starting off weird already. The player we received in return for Daymond Langkow, our former possession monster, has been a possession monster himself so far. In eleven games he has what is by far the Flames best possession stats. His raw corsi is 8.92, nearly five corsi events better than the next best player. But of course, raw corsi doesn't account for the overall quality of the team, nor does it account for zone starts, or really anything.
So how about those then? His corsi rel (corsi adjusted for team strength) is even HIGHER. At 17, he's miles ahead of the next guy in that area. Just...ridiculous. Still, maybe it's his zone starts that are causing him to have this massive bump in possession numbers? When adjusted for his 51% ozone percentage (using Eric T. of Broadstreet Hockey's Corsi Adjusted method), his relative corsi only drops to 15.6. The next best forward? 8.43. (Note: you will literally NEVER guess who that is- and you'll find out in a seperate piece).
In other words: WHAT THE HELL. Nobody expected this from the player I'm now dubbing "Ranchhand Ninja" (his nickname in Phoenix was "Desert Ninja"). But don't take this as complaining: I'm thrilled.
2. The Jay Bouwmeester/Chris Butler Pairing
Two not-so-popular defensemen? Gotta be fancy stats. Butler, if you'll recall, was acquired in the Robyn Regehr trade, which saw Calgary ship a franchise defenseman out for what at the time seemed like spare parts. And while Butler is hardly the next coming of Pronger, or even the next Reggie, he's shown himself to be capable enough to spend a significant amount of time with Jay Bouwmeester matched up against good players in bad situations.
So how do their fancy stats look? Their offensive to defensive zone start ratio is only 44%- very few players on the Flames have less. Despite that low low number, the Adjusted Corsi Relative number for Butler is 13.3 and for Bouwmeester is 10.0 (of note- I'm rounding to the tenth). Bouwmeester has been given a bit of ice time with Anton Babchuk though, so it's important to remember that Babchuk is pretty much completely terrible, and Bouwmeester's numbers would likely be higher if he hadn't been asked to drag around that dead weight at all.
3. Derek Smith
A strange list ends on a strange note: another off-season acquisition for Calgary is apparently very very good when it comes to corsi events. Averaging something like 13 minutes of icetime in nine games played, he's been one of the better Flames at moving the puck north. He's got a 49% zone start ratio, so he's not just capitalizing on easy circumstances either.
In fact, the expected relative corsi for someone with that zone start is about 1.2. Smith? He's clocking in at 10.5, meaning his adjusted corsi is 9.2: not entirely a small number. I would however to expect Smith to regress somewhat, but for the time being, he's a much better start than, say, Anton Babchuk. Babchuk, you should know, is by far the worst on the team.
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A lot of really weird stuff popping up in the Flames underlying numbers, including Gio getting killed in terms of possession (which has never happened before). I’m tempted to do a WOWY to see who the defenders are playing with up front the most. My guess? Gio gets a lot of time behind Iginla, who has been a black hole at ES so far.
From the naked eye the players who are not consistently playing the "defensively responsible but high tempo system" are pretty obvious. B Sutter has said it a million times but for it to work all 5 players on ice have to be in the same hustle.
It was nice to see Feaster himself even mention the advanced stats in his interview last night with Roger Millions, get past all the Turris stuff and it starts around 1:30 how he mentions that they statistically know they won’t score on the run and gun style trading turn-overs. They are not that kind of team. I still think the Toronto game was a win for Calgary if they had not had all those turnovers.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2011/11/06/feaster_interview/?source=video
The Darryl Sutter days are gone and I think the Flames are into the numbers now.
None of this is surprising except the Smith stuff. Hes so invisible that he must be doing great.
by Jeremywilhelm on Nov 7, 2011 9:25 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Otherwise i would be bitching about him more.
by Jeremywilhelm on Nov 7, 2011 9:26 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
(Note: you will literally NEVER guess who that is- and you’ll find out in a seperate piece).
Stajan?
www.mmalinker.com
Horak is being fed tough minutes and is getting murdered.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
And yet is a plus 2. Yes, +\- is a crap stat, but still, fed shite minutes and is still a plus player. Solid stuff
by Jeremywilhelm on Nov 8, 2011 1:04 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Didn’t we healthy scratch Hagman against Detroit and Buffalo? I could be wrong on that (feel free to correct me), but if so, what part of the story am I missing here? Something about the coaching is truly baffling.
My initial guess was Jokinen. I ran the numbers: WOW.
PS: I’m new here. Reader for a while but never posted. I love the work here on advanced stats.
BTW Arik… when I read your list of team leaders, I was convinced for a moment that I was tripping balls.
Then I went back and re-read your intro.
If you want to start tripping take the next kool-aid fan step conclusion from this info.
(1) Jay Feaster made a great trade shipping Langkow for Stempniak
(2) Jay Feaster made a good trade getting a young Chris Butler who will improve and who most were very skeptical could perform in top 4 D.
(3) Jay Feaster also picked up Derek Smith for nothing and he looks good in the bottom pairing.
(4) Jay Feaster had his back up against the wall in being forced to trade Tim Erixon but somehow managed a prospect named Roman Horak who no one thought much of and he made the roster out of camp.
Conclusion: Jay Feaster is a good GM and the moves he has made are taking the Flames in the right direction – reading that here is tripping balls – M&G style… – lol
Is it too early to start talking about how Feaster is going to get a unicorn in the off-season who knows how to play the Sutter system.
Yes. We need to be at least 15 games into the season before we can start the Parise-as-saviour rumors. But at 15 games, it`s open season.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Just a random thought, but from what I`ve seen of Butler, he passes the eye test as well. The other night he did a good job of pinning guys on the boards and freeing the puck for J-Bo or the center to come pick up. He does seem like a good fit with J-Bo too.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Like i told WI. We would all be bitching like crazy if a old ass vet was playing top 2 mins in place of Butler and putting up the same results. The fact that a 24 year old kid is doing it is pretty impressive to me.
Butler looks like a slightly slower Bouwmeester out. He doest get caught flat footed ever. He plays a decent amount of minutes and he doest often get stuck in his own zone for long because of both his skating ability and heada up first passing.
He isnt a future #1, but Regehr was never a #1 either. I dont care that Regehr got traded. The guy struggled for two years with Sarichian like injuries then played pretty decent hockey last year, but in the end, he prob has about another year maybe two before his knees are done. We at least got something for him.
by Jeremywilhelm on Nov 8, 2011 1:10 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Stupid fucking iphone keyboard.
by Jeremywilhelm on Nov 8, 2011 1:11 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed. If Butler ends up taking Regehr’s place in the lineup, the trade was a success. If Byron actually becomes a player, then we have even more to be excited about.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

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