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The Myth of Iginla's slow starts

Jarome Iginla #12 of the Calgary Flames knocks the pucks down at the start of warm up. (Photo by Dale MacMillan/Getty Images)

Sometimes something gets said and people immediately latch onto it. Even reputable media like the Globe and Mail start to repeat it. 

Iginla, a notoriously slow starter, has two goals (one on the power play) and two assists. Tanguay has a goal and seven assists to lead the team with eight points. Allan Maki - Nov 1, 2011 ~ The Globe and Mail

Jarome has started slow now for two seasons in a row but he is not notoriously a slow starter, not by history. 

This type of myth creation has more to do with what people want to believe. Flames fans may not want to admit Jarome Iginla is slowing down today maybe no one does.

The idea of Iginla "always" starts slow really took hold last year, especially after he exploded for points in the 2nd half of the season. The notion that there is nothing to be concerned about continues with the perpetuation of the myth that he has always started slow.

The facts do not back that claim up. 

Two years ago was when this started to circulate but it really took root last year. I decided to look up his production in the first 15 games of the last 10 seasons. Take those numbers to find a point per game projection and project his start out on the season and compare it to the actual results. 

The results are after the jump and it is actually the exact opposite. Jarome has actually for the majority of his career started extremely strong and tapered off slightly or maintained his starting production as the season goes on. 

Star-divide

Jarome Iginla's point production in the first 15 games from 2001-2012.

G

A

Pts

Projected

Actual

2001

5

8

13

71

71

2002

11

14

25

136

96

2003

3

9

12

66

67

2004

4

5

9

49

73

2006

7

5

12

66

67

2007

8

8

16

88

94

2008

10

12

22

120

98

2009

9

10

19

104

89

2010

8

6

14

77

69

2011

2

6

8

44

86

2012

4

4

8

44

???

Jarome historically is a very strong starter who slows down slightly. At the very least he is a consistent producer based on his first 15 games production.

The reality is the opposite of the myth.   

The only years when he can truly be considered a slow starter is 2004, 2007 and 2011.

Note: Jarome only played 70 games in the 2006 - 07 season.

________________

This is a pretty simple analysis. Take the points scored each season in 15 games, calculate a ppg and times by 82 for a projected point total. Then compare to the actual point total in the season. Jarome did not always play the full 82 games but for the most part he did or was reasonably close. 

He is starting just as slow as last year. Historically he will be looking to be an exception to the majority of his past seasons again by stepping up production significantly in the rest of the season as he did in 2011.

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Boo Facts! Boo!

It’s funny to even think of 2007 as being a “slow start”, considering his points per game pace was greater than 1.

I guess it’s too much to ask that Allan Maki of G&M take some time to look up the numbers. How long did it take you to research this? 15 minutes? 20?

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story, Allan!

by Temujin on Nov 13, 2011 2:25 PM PST reply actions  

Another bad week for Maki

Last week he couldn’t figure out the Oilers’ top line and now this. Maye time to hang up the typewriter.

by CalTach on Nov 13, 2011 10:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I don’t think 2007 is significantly different from projected to finished.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Nov 17, 2011 5:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Great article, Mitch. I don’t think I ever actually heard anyone mention this narrative before last year, funnily enough

by Justin Azevedo on Nov 13, 2011 4:58 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

I’m kind of surprised I didn’t even give that narrative a second thought.

by SmellOfVictory on Nov 13, 2011 10:33 PM PST reply actions  

uh oh - someone's becoming a "stats guy"

Awesome analysis Mitch. To be fair, I actually heard them refer to it on a broadcast and just thought to myself that it seemed to fit.

Great way to show the reality behind the myth. Time to start worrying about Jarome though when we combine this info with his SC % that Kent posts. He’s been terrible so far.

Ryan Popilchak

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Nov 14, 2011 7:27 AM PST reply actions  

SHUT UP!

Stories like this are killing his trade value ;)

by 44stampede on Nov 14, 2011 10:06 PM PST reply actions  

It's not just him

This whole team seems to be in a slump. Slow starts=no playoffs i.e. last year. Where is bourque? Glad I have Tanguay in my pool.

by Stan Darsh on Nov 14, 2011 11:23 PM PST reply actions  

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