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Around SBN: 'You Just Have to Put Him to Sleep'

Flames Lacking a Top Matchup Line


I was perusing the stat site of Hockey Analysis and came across something pretty shocking.  Of all the forwards in the NHL who have played over 200 minutes, there were three Flames who ranked in the top-10 for Fenwick percentage.

Tim Jackman came in at third (60.0%), Mikael Backlund at fourth (59.9%) and David Moss at sixth (59.9%).  It was unsurprising that all three had zone starts higher than 56% and rather easy quality of competition measures, but it definitely sparked a train of thought for me.  As a sidenote, I rarely get a new train of thought, so please keep reading after the jump.

Star-divide

One of the few advantages this poorly assembled squad has is a rather dominant bottom of the forward roster.  The likes of Jackman, Backlund, Moss and Glencross seem to be outplaying their opposition on a regular basis.  Sure, they're getting some pretty soft ice time, but at least they're taking advantage of it.

What the Flames need, however, are players who can match up with the opposition's best.  I realize none of this is earth-shatteringly new to you.  That said, if the Flames could at least assemble one line that could play the opposition to a draw at evens with another line that could slightly outscore the opposition - then the fourth-line-on-steroids would be a legit weapon.

I recently posted about the Heavy Lifter Index over at Hockey Prospectus.  Unfortunately for the Flames, they really don't have many forwards that even qualified for the index, let alone scored well.  The Flames best current players and their 2009-10 rankings in HLI are below:

Langkow - 61st, Iginla - 62nd, Stajan - 85th, Hagman - 90th, Jokinen - 132nd, Glencross - 233rd

HLI the last three years

Bourque - 57th, Conroy - 66th, Tanguay - 76th, Stajan - 85th, Langkow - 108th, Iginla - 110th, Moss - 133rd, Glencross - 134th, Hagman - 138th

I know we've discussed it many times in game recaps and when looking at the scoring chance summaries.  That said, when we constantly talk about how the Flames need top forwards, we should be talking about top matchup forwards.  Iggy and company are definitely capable of taking a few top six matchups.  What the Flames need are a few more players capable of playing against the big boys.

The fact that Calgary's best player ranks 57th is a sign that the organization has done an extremely poor job of indentifying and developing players who can play the tough minutes well. 

Manny Malhotra and Colby Armstrong are perfect examples.  They ranked 45th and 20th in HLI over the last three years and definitely would have been money better spend than Jokinen.

If teams were willing to part ways with players like Joel Ward, Erik Cole, Steve Ott, Tyler Kennedy or Daniel Cleary for reasonable return, they all could have provided another matchup option for Brent Sutter to work with.  Each one of those players ranked in HLI's top 34 over the last three seasons.

None of it is rocket science, but I think it just bares repeating how this team was put together with little thought or insight into the way the modern game works.

Your thoughts?

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Interesting to see Steve Ott on the list. I always thought of him as an insufferable prick, not as a guy who can legitimately play. Tyler Kennedy is a guy I’ve liked for the past few years, and if he was paired with, say, Bourque and Backlund against 2nd lines I think they’d do pretty well.

The 4th Line Blog
Go Flames Go

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 14, 2011 12:06 AM PST reply actions  

There are lots of guys on that list that I’ve overlooked in the past. It was probably the most eye-opening post I’ve ever written (for myself that is) since I got to see the ridiculously tough ice time some guys have to suffer and still pull through it.

Ryan

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, & Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Jan 14, 2011 7:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Grow one ?

Will we be growing one of these guys on the farm ? Since it appears that none of the 2008 draft class have elite offensive talent maybe one or more of Wahl, Nemisz and Patterson can develop in to this type of player.

Agree with you – Armstrong or Malholtra would have been better money than Joker, especially with Langkow out.

That Stajan is that high is a pleasant surprise.

Oh for the days of Stephane Yelle and Ville Niemenen gritting it out against the big guys.

by PrairieStew on Jan 14, 2011 6:20 AM PST reply actions  

To be honest, I have no idea what it takes to grow a Heavy Lifter. Guys like Hanzal seem to have done it from birth and others grow into it in their late 20’s.

I do think there’s value in asking a guy with decent, but not great offensive talent to learn the “stopper” role though. Just having a guy who could play the other team’s top line to a draw has a massive value.

The Stajan one just blows my mind. It’s actually one of the results that makes me worried I’ve made some sort of egregious error. I’ll definitely be paying better attention to him next time I’m watching a game.

Ryan

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, & Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Jan 14, 2011 7:05 AM PST up reply actions  

hard vs soft

The picture we have in our mind of the “shutdown centre” is a hard nosed guy – a Joel Otto, Bobby Holik type. I think that there is merit in a crafty defensive approach – much like Lidstrom does on defence. He doesn’t pound like Pronger but is defensively adept because of his skill. Could Stajan develop in to this guy ? Quite frankly it is who Langkow became because he didn’t have elite offensive skill.

by PrairieStew on Jan 14, 2011 7:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Totally agree with you there. Datsyuk is a stud and facing the league’s best and he’s not exactly a banger. There are a lot of ways to achieve the same results. I’m just not sure of anyone who’s tried to form a player into that mold and how well it worked out.

Ryan

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, & Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Jan 14, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Geez, I wish I had thought (see #14 and #22) of that (see #51).

I am not saying you copied the idea or anything, just that if two schlubs like us can see it scraping around on the internet and watching games on TV, how the hell to Darryl and Brent and whomever else is making management decisions around here not see it.

If I was ownership – and a GM candidate didn’t identify to me how they were going to solve this problem (without me suggesting it as a problem) I would not hire them.

by CalTach on Jan 14, 2011 11:12 AM PST reply actions  

Obviously if you and I came to the same conclusions, we’re both really intelligent.

I think the problem is much like we see with businesses all the time. You make a plan and you try to follow that plan. It’s usually easier for an outsider to see when the plan isn’t working than the person who crafted the plan in the first place. In this case, the Flames have been locked into “we need more top-line guys to play with Iggy” mode for so long, that they don’t see another way to build a team.

To be fair, trying to play another team’s top lne to a draw and beating them 3rd-to-3rd may be a recipe for failure as well but at the moment I just don’t see other options with our roster.

Kent Wilson also wrote something about the Ducks run to the cup on HP the other day talking about how Getzlaf and Perry got to feast on 3rd lines while Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer and Moen took on the big guys. It’s the same concept except with young up-and-comers on the 3rd instead of just solid 3rd liners.

Ryan

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, & Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Jan 14, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions  

I've been critical of Daymond Langkow at times,

but this was his role.

Was he an elite top minutes eater? I think he was, but he himself didn’t necessarily do a ton of scoring (my prime beef and how it relates to his 4.5million cap hit… hell Kesler makes 5)

BUT… Langkow is injured.

It’s easy to say “Blah…blah… management had no idea what they were doing constructing a team like this….”

AND if Kesler was out for the year, or Datsyuk, with a career threatening neck injury. Would we say that Gillis or Holland had no idea what they are doing?

The Langkow injury is poor luck. Jokinen was brought in as a stop-gap (and nowhere near a great one.)

But people always seen to forget this, or ignore it. This team is a much better team with Langkow in the line-up and say…. Kotalik out.

But that’s not our reality, and as much as we can’t sit and cry about it, we have to acknowledge it.

by LawrenceS on Jan 14, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions  

In fact...

I’d be willing to say with Jokinen playing with Iginla and Tanguay, Langkow playing with Bourque and GlenX and Stajan playing with Hagman and Backlund/Kotalik/Morrison, and Moss playing with Jackman and Kostopolous we’re likely in the mix with the 47pts teams.

by LawrenceS on Jan 14, 2011 12:46 PM PST up reply actions  

that was weird…

with a line-up of…

Tanguay – Jokinen – Iginla
Bourque – Langkow – GlenX
Hagman – Stajan – Backlund?/Kotalik?/Morrison?
Jackman – Moss – Kostopolous

we’re probably in the the other 47pts teams right now.

by LawrenceS on Jan 14, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I will give you the Langkow injury as a pretty significant setback. But if Sutter knew he was probably going to be without Langkow by July 1st (as he signed Jokinen for a stop gap) that means Sutter went out looking. For a tough minutes centre man and settled on Olli Jokinen! After having had him in Calgary for over a season and trading him for Kotalik and Higgins.

I can’t think of a more complete indictment of Sutter as an evaluator of Player talent.

by CalTach on Jan 14, 2011 4:40 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I can’t think of a more complete indictment of Sutter as an evaluator of Player talent

That isn’t really true…how many three million dollar forwards were available in the off-season. Every team is looking for centres right now, and there are none. It may just be the fact that Jokinen was the best they could sign.

I guess him or Malholtra… and Manny probably didn’t want to go to Calgary over Vancouver.

by LawrenceS on Jan 14, 2011 6:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m with CalTach on this one. Langkow’s injury sucked, but if he was replacing him with Jokinen that was a mistake.

As for the cost, Malhotra signed for $2.5m per and Colby Armstrong signed for $3m per. So the cost per year would have been the same.

That said, I agree that any prospective free agent would pick Vancouver over Calgary if they actually cared about winning.

Ryan

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, & Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Jan 15, 2011 8:15 AM PST up reply actions  

True

For perpsective – Kesler’s GVT last year 16.6 and Langkow’s only 5.7, though Daymond had 3 good years in the mid teens in that metric. Kesler already at 11.7 for this year, 6th among all forwards in league. He’s looks to be good value for $5 m.

Langkow injury bad luck – but if he’s healthy they don’t sign Morrison whose GVT of 3.1 so far is not too bad – almost exact to Daymond’s pace last year. If Langkow is healthy Sutter probably still signs Jokinen who would then get easier ice time than he has, and they would be marginally better.

by PrairieStew on Jan 14, 2011 1:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, this had been the issue going back a few years now. Iginla hasn’t been a heavy hitter for a few years and the org just doesn’t have anyone who can take over. Bourque and Langkow were filling the void to some degree for awhile, but with Langkow’s injury this year that stop gap has fallen away.

I can only assume that Sutter saw Iginla as a big gun still and assumed he (and the rest of of the team) “just needed to try harder” or something. Truth is, the Flames have needed one or more elite players for awhile and the more Sutter tinkered around the edges, the further the team got from filling it’s actual needs.

Also, thanks for the new stats site link. That will be invaluable going forward.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 14, 2011 2:01 PM PST reply actions  

I think he saw Iginla still as being a heavy lifter. I’d rather see him get Sedin-like icetime though. But you’re right, we have a lot of depth from 2nd to 4th line without anyone to take on the big guns.

I like that site link – he plans on adding some new features going forward but just having Fenwick at my fingertips is nice.

Ryan

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, & Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Jan 15, 2011 8:17 AM PST up reply actions  

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