Season Preview: Olli Jokinen
by Hayley on Sep 13, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
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PrintThis is a series of posts previewing Flames players prior to the new season that will run throughout the month of September; today, we begin with the players that had a bit of a rough go of things last season--whether they were injured, down on their luck, or just didn't deliver as expected. Today's player is the much-maligned Sex Panther Olli Jokinen.
Olli Jokinen's arrival, departure, and subsequent return to the Flames has elicited confusion, frustration, rage, anxiety, depression, nausea, and a whole host of other negative reactions from the team's fan base over the course of the last year and a half. After a hot start faded into a lengthy cold streak following his acquisition from the Coyotes last March, fans could only hope for a return to form of sorts from the 5.5M dollar man their club had paid so dearly for in 2009-10. Despite evidence that Olli's pairing with Jarome Iginla was tenuous at best and that the two struggled to hold their own against the opposition's best players, Brent Sutter threw them over the boards together in such situations time and time again for much of last season. While there's no question these circumstances affected Jokinen's production to some degree, the big Finn wasn't exactly at the top of his game for a myriad of reasons.
Jokinen seems like a textbook case of higher shot volume=more goals and more points. Having never reached 20 goals prior to his fifth NHL season, Olli's shot totals ballooned to 240, 280, 351, 351, and 341 over his next five seasons--an average of 313 shots/season--and his shooting percentage increased accordingly. Jokinen shot an average of 11.2% during those years for a total of 104 ES goals (173 all together). Over the past two seasons, Jokinen's shot totals have dropped to his lowest since the beginning of that five-year period; he managed 236 shots on net in each of the past two seasons split between the Coyotes, Flames, and Rangers. Still a pretty respectable number, but nowhere in range of some of the league's most prolific shooters; Alex Ovechkin, Zach Parise, Jeff Carter, and Henrik Zetterberg all fired 300+ shots on net last season.
There's no doubting that the percentages were kind to at least three of the aforementioned players last season, but that often comes with the territory. Olli's SH% didn't really start to hit the skids until last season, when he shot a combined 6.4% with the Flames and Rangers, 3.5% below his career average and good for 15 goals on 236 shots. This indicates that luck wasn't always on his side last season (as he'd surely be the first to tell you), but his fairly normal PDO of 99.9 tells us that luck wasn't everything. Another factor contributing to his downward spiral is the lack of powerplay points that used to pad his totals; in his last 30-goal campaign with the Panthers (07-08), Jokinen scored 18 goals and 33 points (46.5% of his total offence) with the man advantage, spending an average of 3:48/game on the PP. In 2005-06, Olli saw nearly five minutes of powerplay ice per game. Last season, that dropped to 2:46/game, with 30% of his offence (15 points) coming with the extra man; at ES, Jokinen scored at a pace of 1.69 points/60. Olli could certainly help his situation if he were to take fewer penalties than he drew, however that is an area that the club as a whole needs to improve upon this season.
Projection
As is the case with the majority of players on the wrong side of 30, once things start to go south, their ability to recover is not quite the same as it once was. Jokinen still has good hands, an above average shot, and is capable of using his size to his advantage; the likelihood of having Alex Tanguay on his line should remove some of the pressure to be the line's playmaker, so if he can put himself in a position to shoot more often and the percentages normalize, good things could happen. I don't think 20 goals is unachievable for the Joker this season.
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Good read, Hayley.
I agree that Joker should have a much better season, given he’s deployed properly by the coach. Hockey seemed to just shit on a few players last season, and most of them seemed to be wearing the flaming C. Hopefully we see a turnaround and increased production from a few players.
Glad to hear not everyone thinks Jokinen is a total bust already, though.
I’m going to think positive here. 25 isn’t out of the question for a full season of work with Iggy and Tanguay…provided a certain someone uses them in the right situations.
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He better start fast to win the fans or move to a wing to be useful to the team
Jokinen better come out blazing to quell the doubts and anxiety popping into every Flames fan who cares about the team. The issue I’m really interested in is the Flames being over the Cap because of deals involving Jokinen. Kotalik isn’t in Europe, Staois is so far staying, and Pelech will be a free agent if sent down to Abbottsford. Its nice to have Jokinen at 3 mill instaed of 5.5, but as a package Kotalik and Jokinen are 6 mill, a bit of a pickle. Well how about a European line with Jokinen-Hagman-Kotalik? I think Langkow if healthy is our first centre. That leaves Backlund, Stajan, and Conroy-who is going to move to the wing? Can Jokinen play on a wing. Of course, right wing in Junior I believe. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but for sure one centre of ours has to move it on over.
Backlund will start in Abby. The plan is to make 12-13-40 the line, so the Sex Panther isn’t moving to the wing.
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by Justin Azevedo on Sep 13, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Jokinen has all the tools
No question Jokinen has all the tools to be a 30-50 goal man, ok, there is a train of thought that Jokinen hasn’t been the same since colliding with Zednick and inadvertently causing a life threatening injury. Everyone should remember that one-a brutal accident right up there with the Clint Malarchuk episode.
Maybe Jokinen can finally focus again and put the hotdog in the bun all year. He has all the tools but his concentration has been consciously or unconsciously sabotaged. Remember Leeman-the 50 goal man? He never got the concentration back, it was like he was punch drunk on the ice. What would be nice is a rousing welcome when he steps on the ice and not catcalls. Bury the hatchet and give him the benefit of the doubt that he will, as he put it, “Light it Up this Year”.
30 would be awesome.
50 would be historic – as in the oldest first time 50 goal scorer since Johnny Bucyk.
by PrairieStew on Sep 13, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I expect 25 (give or take) out of Jokinen…but to be honest, I am having a really hard time generating excitement about this season. This sense of impending dread keeps hitting me. Maybe it’s the fact we are pinning a lot of our hope on this guy and Tanguay. Anyhoo, heeeere’s hoping!!
I will eat a bowl of cherries and some ghost meat in his honor.
Jokinen will have a bounce back year
unless he gets injured or something. I’m telling ya.
His shooting % was unsustainably low, and no one can hit 25 posts in two seasons. Even though, if anyone could, it might be Joker.
He’s the same as Tanguay, shoot more Olli. Jokinen doesn’t have a great shot, he has a very heavy shot, so he especially needs volume.
Put him on a line with Bourque and Tanguay, I’m saying it, get him away from Iginla, and he’ll do fine! He’s more than a good player for 3 million bucks.
Watch out for the lefties Joker.
I agree, put Langkow with Iginla and Hagman, or move Jokinen to RW on 2nd line
I still like the idea of Jokinen moving to RW to allow Langkow,Backlund, Satjan, and Conroy play at centre. I’d expect Backlund to be third line centre. Borque-Backlund-Jokinen-2nd line possibility
Backlund has to play
If not moving Jokinen to RW then Backlund will centre third line-I hope
Budgie: Backlund is not going to play. He’s not ready to play second line minutes and still be able to contribute-especially with a shooter like Jokinen on the wing, if the Sex Panther was moved there. Plus then you have way too much cash and guys who should be playing sitting. Overall, it would probably be a negative to the team to have him play.
Lawrence: I would rather Bourque play with Lankgow and Iginla, since he’s better then anyone else who would be put there. Any line that Iginla is on is the first line, and your first line should have your best players. A second line of Jokinen-Hagman-Tanguay would still be pretty killer.
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by Justin Azevedo on Sep 14, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreeing with Justin
Jokinen(the big body presence down the middle) will probably never play wing, so that pushes Backlund back to the farm, for both salary cap and developmental reasons.
The top line is going to draw the top lines from the other teams, so in order to avoid getting eaten alive by Getzlaf, Thornton, Toews or Sedin’s units – Bourque and Langkow are requirements with Iggy.
For the record Justin – i think that is twice now.
Backlund and Pellech should play
Backlund was ready last year, Sutter called him his best player in March 09, he even played top line minutes. My point is move someone to the wing to make room, maybe Stajan, not necessarily Jokinen but somebody. Pelech has to play or we will lose him if he’s called up and then sent down-that makes him a free agent. Play these two prospects they are ready to jump up-they won’t finish developing on the Farm. I agree that you and Praire Stew agreed twice.
If Backlund is on the team, two of Kotalik, Conroy, Stone, Thing One or Two would have to be sent down just to make the roster numbers work, not to mention the team would be adding on more cash to an already over the cap budget. Now, if Staios and Kotalik were sent down in favour of Pelech and Backlund, I’d be delighted. But it’s not happening. (I’m also forgetting about Kronwall, who’s on a one way contract.) There’s just too many players, and as it stands right now, the guys who are going to be left out are the young ones. Sutter’s going to have to do something, and when he does, it will be much more clear…but the signals he’s giving out are pointing towards those two being on the farm come the start of the season. Pelech’s contract just adds more to the opinion that he should be on the farm. No need to risk losing him on waivers, especially when we have 8 “NHL caliber” (using that term very loosely) already on one way’s.
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by Justin Azevedo on Sep 15, 2010 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions
How about moving a centre to the wing?
Balance it by moving a centre over to right wing. Staios and Kotalik sent down, hopefully picked up. Sure looks like a trade must happen to get under the cap anyways. We have to keep Backlund and Pelech, why draft and develop them. It will come down to training camp performances. Backlund feels like he’s ready not unusual for a young player to surmise.
Balance it by moving a centre over to right wing.
What happens to Kotalik, Glencross, Moss or Bourque? One of those guys is getting bumped, and two of them can’t offer cap relief.
Staios and Kotalik sent down, hopefully picked upKotalik was already put on waivers. He was available for nothing and no one picked him up. Staios is liked too much by Daz and there’s no way the owners are going to eat 5.7 million dollars this year. Like you said, the logistics just do not work unless he’s unloading some guys, which is becoming increasingly hard to do given there is 10, maybe 11 NTC’s/NMC’s on the team.
We have to keep Backlund and Pelech, why draft and develop them.I don’t see him giving up Pelech or Backlund in trades, since those are really his only NHL worthy draft picks left.
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by Justin Azevedo on Sep 15, 2010 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll try
I agree with what you are trying to do. It’s just not acheivable. As I have said before – Sarich is the most likely trade commodity. If you can get a pick or junior prospect for him, that solves your problem of 8 NHL “calibre” defensemen and your salary cap issue. In fact – almost to the dollar allows you to keep Backlund in Calgary.
This, however is where we diverge. I am really hoping that the career upside for Backlund is an offensive centre that you can call your #1. What is the best for him at this time to get to that level ? I beleive it is playing that role 20 minutes a game in Abbotsford. He’s only been in Canada a year and a bit; he didn’t immediately grab the ring and lead Abby in the playoffs last year; but I expect him to be THE MAN this year with that team. His salary cap hit at $1.3 is far too much for him to be playing with Thing One and Thing 2, so even if you move a centre to the wing – the best you can hope for is 3rd line – no PP etc – I still think he’s better off in Abbotsford.
As far as Pelech goes – I think they can send him down, but it could become problematic if they call him up and then have to send him back. So if there is a rash of injuries, he is called up, and then the players return, maybe that’s the time to send Steve to Abby.
Supposing Kotalik is gone> then?
Tanguay -Langkow-Iginla
Hagman-Jokinen-Borque
Glencross-Backlund-Stajan
Moss-Conroy-Jackman
The only problem with this is that there isn’t enough cap relief from only that move. As of right now, the Flames are 2.35 Million over the cap and 3 million minus 2.35 does not equal 1.27 million. The team would still be over the cap. It would take a lot of movement to get the team under, movement that would put the team at a competitive disadvantage-you could demote Pardy & Kronwall as well as Kotalik to get the cap space, but then you only have 21 on the active roster with about 575k worth of cap space. If anyone gets hurt and isn’t put on LTIR, then you would be screwed in terms of roster space and cap space. It would be like 08-09 all over again. Staios isn’t going to get demoted because Daz thinks he is too valuable to the team…why else would he give up a draft pick as well as a player for him? Besides, 5.7 million in the Minors is a shitload of money, and no one wants Kotalik. I have no idea what Staios’ trade value is. Basically, it could work to bring Backlund up, but there’s just too many “what ifs” to justify it.
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by Justin Azevedo on Sep 15, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Hard to move players now
It will take a trade to bring us under the cap. Its hard to do anything when unrestricted free agents will sign for less money just to play at this time of year.According to Cap Geek the Flames are over by $2,349,995. Realistically we need to move about 6-8 million in salaries to allow for call ups during the season. It seems if you can’t trade players and they don’t move on the free agency market then your farm system is useless. The Flames need to move a couple of players in a hostile trade market. Something has to give. Luckily Giordano and Pardy are affordable. Your right that there is no room to bring up players like Backlund and Pelech this year without a trade. It should be an interesting couple of weeks.
Defensemen available
Actually the FA defense market is looking pretty thin. Kim Johnsson, Brendan Witt, Mathieu Schneider, Tom Preissing, Paul Mara, Garnet Exelby, Andreas Lilja – there really is not much there – most of those guys are spent. I still hold out hope that someone in the Southeast will be looking for an expereinced 3 – 4 man in Sarich. I wish we didn’t have to do it – and we wouldn’t if there was no Staios but…….
Maybe Anaheim? Cheaper to hire UFAs?
Anaheim needs a defenceman, Lyndman is having medical problems-hopefully he will be alright. They saw fit to hire UFA Paul Mara and Toni Lyndman after losing Scott Nediemeyer to retirement. Bottom line-its cheaper to hire UFAs instead of trading. Many are 500,000 for one year- less than a prospect will make on the big club. Calgary needs to pull the trigger on a trade but it won’t happen unless a top name is included. Unfortunately, the Defenceman they would want in a trade is likely Regehr, White, or Bowmeester. Calgary missed their chance to correct their cap problems with the Phaneuf deal. That deal should have been for a number one draft and a scorer. Why would anyone trade for a player’s 3 million salary when equal talent can be found in UFAs at half that or less? Calgary has to trade a top player-yes it isn’t pretty but its a fact.
I was thinking Anaheim too
But now that they signed Mara, and at such a cheap rate I can see why it may be difficult to move Sarich. You may be right that it will have to be Regehr that gets moved since he is someone teams would be very interested in. Then what I guess we hope for is that Sarich steps up and plays to that value for the next 2 years.
It is cheaper to hire UFA’s for the bottom half of your roster than to trade for them. Sutter has done it every year with a goon ( or 2), he got Glencross off the UFA market and other servicable players, but it sure appears this past year he has traded for a ton of bottom half talent as well with Staios, Kotalik, Mayers, Higgins.
I'm not sure if he's good at math with the cap
I think Anaheim may still be a potential trade candidate-they have cap space. The situation is grave, Giordano needs to be signed, this being the last year of his bargain rate, that is why I think Pellech and Kronwall should play. Somewhere in your lineup you have to have 5 or 6— 500,000 to-1million players to be able to afford 4 top defencemen and 6 top forwards. The farm system and UFA market should supply you with these players. It makes more sense to have a fourth line of young players than goons. I’m not sure why Sutter always fills out the roster with goonish types, meanwhile players like Wellwood, Morrison, Guerin, and Belanger are getting invites to camps. Dawes signed with Atlanta, what a bargain. Sutter would rather float along McGratton and Ivanis types to sop up a bunch of money that could be spent on a decent free agent.
I can’t figure it out-the Flames always pay three or four players for not playing-like Colin Stuart, and Garth Murray who all end up being UFAs anyways-if they aren’t going to play then don’t pay them. I don’t believe the reasoning of ‘depth’ works when Calgary has backed themselves into a corner by not creating cap space. Calgary misses out on the real bargains of the UFA market while they load up the fourth line. Players like Higgins and Dawes are elsewhere because the team has 6 lines instead of four. No wonder young players never step in from the farm. Its a drag to see good UFAs float around while the Flames can’t make a trade to clear cap space.
Giordano needs to be signed, this being the last year of his bargain rate, that is why I think Pellech and Kronwall should play
Wait-what does Pelech and Kronwall playing this year have anything to do with a raise for Gio next year? Even if he signs a 3 million per season deal or whatever, it doesn’t kick in until July 1 2011.
You are right-It does make more sense to have a 4th line of young players then a 4th line of goons, but he can’t understand that for some reason.
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by Justin Azevedo on Sep 17, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
You are frustrated
And I hear you. You forgot about Dustin Boyd; though he hadn’t shown alot of progress – he still was cheap and young. The dropping of Boyd, Nystrom and Dawes in favour of Thing One and Thing Two is hard to understand.
Next year you have about $2 million more for Gio when Staios is gone. Pelech in at Gio’s salary – Gio gets just under $3 like White. The problem for next year is that you don’t have any cap relief to speak of. In fact if White plays well he is a UFA and the $3M might not be enough.
According to Cap geek, next year they have 14 guys signed at $50 million – so if we assume another cap growth to about $62 million there is 12 left.
White + Gio + Pelech = $8M
Backup goalie $1m
That leaves you $3 m to replace Tanguay, Glencross and Conroy. Start with Backlund at $1.3 and you need 2 guys at around $850 K – you can’t even afford your first round picks to play !
Second oldest team in the league this year – next year most of the UFA’s (White, Gio,Pardy, Karlsson, Kronwall, Glencross) are actually YOUNGER than the current team average; so the average age goes up when/if our UFA’s walk !
I think we should focus on this year, but yes, I agree, people will have to be moved next summer to make room for the “young guys” to play.
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by Justin Azevedo on Sep 17, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
this year
Without any trade subtractions:
News yesterday that Langkow is not ready to go – which means you can replace him with another player up to his salary without it counting further against the cap. That means Kotalik’s $3m would not count if he was that replacement for Langkow’s spot on the 23 man roster..Since we are 2.35 over with Kotalik and Langkow on the 23, the guy that “replaces” Kotalik has to make less than $650K. So it’s Stone or Sutter at $500, maybe Chucko at 600 , but definitely not Backlund. When Langkow returns – you’d have to send Kotalik down. Once you send him down you can’t bring him back up, because if he gets claimed you’d be on the hook for 50% of the salary from then on – something they can not afford.
Start making cap space
What I was referring to was making room for Giordano’s salary now and sign him now even though his salary will begin next July.
White,Giordano, Staios,Pardy, and Kronwall are all UFAs next year
Pellech will be a RFA
If you don’t move a couple of players now you just lose them to the Free agent market, try and trade them for this season and get something in return. The problem is that you can’t move them anyways it seems. Settle on 4 top defencemen and use younger players to cut the salary cap issues and develop them-thats why they were drafted.
I’d like to see at least one player from the farm system play before losing them to another team because you never played them or just used them as emergency players. Makes your farm system useless. We are getting younger-its a good sign. Who do you think is ready from the farm? How about Seabrook? any thoughts?
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