FanPost

What to expect from Langkow

Earlier this summer I did some historical comparisons for Iginla and Kiprusoff versus their recent peers, with the object of learning what to expect from them going forward. Both stacked up fairly well relative to their age in comparison to some very good players

Now it is Daymond Langkow’s turn.

Langkow was drafted in '95 (the same year as Iggy) in the first round by Tampa. He is a medium-sized centre who has shown defensive responsibility and decent offensive skill. Not a regular all star, but an important contributor for sure. I went looking for similar players just a bit older than Langkow and found 5 that I thought were pretty close, even a couple that used to play for Calgary. All of these guys will end their careers somewhere above 900 games and 650 points, but none will likely make 1200 games or 1000 points. 4 of the 5 comparables were also first round picks, 2 are now retired, and 3 are still playing.

Langkow (draft year: 95) to date: 1013 games, 641 points.

Andrew Cassels (draft: 87) to date: 1015 games, 732 points

Bryan Smolinski (draft: 90) to date: 1056 games, 651 points

Cory Stillman (draft: 92) to date: 960 games, 688 points

Saku Koivu (draft: 93) to date: 863 games 693 points

Andrew Brunette (draft: 93) to date: 950 games 660 points

The comparison I decided to use was points, rather than the goal comparison I used for Iginla.

Of this group of 6, Langkow was the earliest starter as the only guy playing at 20. All 6 were playing at 22, so that’s where I start the comparison. I broke it down in to 5-year chunks: 22-26, 27-31 and 32-36. I had to factor out the lockout and  also took Koivu’s 2-point season out of the average as cancer is an injury that is not related to hockey. I also did a point adjustment for Cassels and Smolinski in the strike shortened 94-95.

Age

Langkow

Stillman

Smolinski

Cassels

Brunette

Koivu

Average

Delta

5 yrs group

 5 yr Daymond

20

28

21

22

25

22

33

35

51

41

11

45

36.6

-3.6

23

50

26

53

85

23

56

48.6

1.4

24

54

49

64

58

31

57

51.8

2.2

25

62

57

56

63

50

44

54

8

26

52

21

43

63

59

21

41.4

10.6

46.48

50.2

27

52

52

40

66

69

47

54.8

-2.8

28

45

56

44

46

0

47.75

-47.75

29

59

67

59

37

49

71

56.6

2.4

30

77

80

38

62

55

58.75

18.25

31

65

46

56

63

62

56.75

8.25

54.93

63.25

32

49

76

46

50

83

75

66

-17

33

37

27

68

59

56

52.5

-15.5

34

65

48

26

50

50

47.8

35

49

44

12

61

52

43.6

36

37

25

31

48.18

43

Not only did Langkow get a 50 point head start on most of these guys in his early 20’s , he outdid them by an average of nearly 4 points per year from age 22-26. In the late 20s to early 30s, Daymond also outscored the group – this time by an average of over 8 points. Langkow’s career year of 77 points at age 30 matches the year that Stillman achieved his career high of 80, however the group average peaks 2 years later at 32, with 66 points led by Brunette and Koivu, who both had their best years at age 32. Smolinski and Cassells had their best years much younger at 24 and 23, respectively.

What is interesting about this group is they don’t show a linear progression throughout the years.  For whatever reason, this group took steps backwards at 26 and 28, before showing great consistency and improvement to 32 before falling off on the other side.

What is troubling is that Daymond outperformed this group in 8 seasons to 2 (not including the lockout year), but for the past 2 years has massively underperformed relative to this group. If he can get back to the equivalent of this group, then another 50 point season is not out of the question. If he follows the trend of underperforming this group as he has over the past 2 seasons, then a 30 point season is likely the result, and that is not enough for a #1 or #2 centre making $4.5M per season. 

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