What to expect from Langkow
by PrairieStew on Aug 24, 2010 5:59 AM PDT
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PrintEarlier this summer I did some historical comparisons for Iginla and Kiprusoff versus their recent peers, with the object of learning what to expect from them going forward. Both stacked up fairly well relative to their age in comparison to some very good players
Now it is Daymond Langkow’s turn.
Langkow was drafted in '95 (the same year as Iggy) in the first round by Tampa. He is a medium-sized centre who has shown defensive responsibility and decent offensive skill. Not a regular all star, but an important contributor for sure. I went looking for similar players just a bit older than Langkow and found 5 that I thought were pretty close, even a couple that used to play for Calgary. All of these guys will end their careers somewhere above 900 games and 650 points, but none will likely make 1200 games or 1000 points. 4 of the 5 comparables were also first round picks, 2 are now retired, and 3 are still playing.
Langkow (draft year: 95) to date: 1013 games, 641 points.
Andrew Cassels (draft: 87) to date: 1015 games, 732 points
Bryan Smolinski (draft: 90) to date: 1056 games, 651 points
Cory Stillman (draft: 92) to date: 960 games, 688 points
Saku Koivu (draft: 93) to date: 863 games 693 points
Andrew Brunette (draft: 93) to date: 950 games 660 points
The comparison I decided to use was points, rather than the goal comparison I used for Iginla.
Of this group of 6, Langkow was the earliest starter as the only guy playing at 20. All 6 were playing at 22, so that’s where I start the comparison. I broke it down in to 5-year chunks: 22-26, 27-31 and 32-36. I had to factor out the lockout and also took Koivu’s 2-point season out of the average as cancer is an injury that is not related to hockey. I also did a point adjustment for Cassels and Smolinski in the strike shortened 94-95.
|
Age |
Langkow |
Stillman |
Smolinski |
Cassels |
Brunette |
Koivu |
Average |
Delta |
5 yrs group |
5 yr Daymond |
|
20 |
28 |
|||||||||
|
21 |
22 |
25 |
||||||||
|
22 |
33 |
35 |
51 |
41 |
11 |
45 |
36.6 |
-3.6 |
||
|
23 |
50 |
26 |
53 |
85 |
23 |
56 |
48.6 |
1.4 |
||
|
24 |
54 |
49 |
64 |
58 |
31 |
57 |
51.8 |
2.2 |
||
|
25 |
62 |
57 |
56 |
63 |
50 |
44 |
54 |
8 |
||
|
26 |
52 |
21 |
43 |
63 |
59 |
21 |
41.4 |
10.6 |
46.48 |
50.2 |
|
27 |
52 |
52 |
40 |
66 |
69 |
47 |
54.8 |
-2.8 |
||
|
28 |
45 |
56 |
44 |
46 |
0 |
47.75 |
-47.75 |
|||
|
29 |
59 |
67 |
59 |
37 |
49 |
71 |
56.6 |
2.4 |
||
|
30 |
77 |
80 |
38 |
62 |
55 |
58.75 |
18.25 |
|||
|
31 |
65 |
46 |
56 |
63 |
62 |
56.75 |
8.25 |
54.93 |
63.25 |
|
|
32 |
49 |
76 |
46 |
50 |
83 |
75 |
66 |
-17 |
||
|
33 |
37 |
27 |
68 |
59 |
56 |
52.5 |
-15.5 |
|||
|
34 |
65 |
48 |
26 |
50 |
50 |
47.8 |
||||
|
35 |
49 |
44 |
12 |
61 |
52 |
43.6 |
||||
|
36 |
37 |
25 |
31 |
48.18 |
43 |
Not only did Langkow get a 50 point head start on most of these guys in his early 20’s , he outdid them by an average of nearly 4 points per year from age 22-26. In the late 20s to early 30s, Daymond also outscored the group – this time by an average of over 8 points. Langkow’s career year of 77 points at age 30 matches the year that Stillman achieved his career high of 80, however the group average peaks 2 years later at 32, with 66 points led by Brunette and Koivu, who both had their best years at age 32. Smolinski and Cassells had their best years much younger at 24 and 23, respectively.
What is interesting about this group is they don’t show a linear progression throughout the years. For whatever reason, this group took steps backwards at 26 and 28, before showing great consistency and improvement to 32 before falling off on the other side.
What is troubling is that Daymond outperformed this group in 8 seasons to 2 (not including the lockout year), but for the past 2 years has massively underperformed relative to this group. If he can get back to the equivalent of this group, then another 50 point season is not out of the question. If he follows the trend of underperforming this group as he has over the past 2 seasons, then a 30 point season is likely the result, and that is not enough for a #1 or #2 centre making $4.5M per season.
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Can't speak for the others but Langkow plays tough minutes
Nice summary PS – I like these “future looks”.
One thing to consider for Langkow and his potential 30-pt season would be the role he plays on the team. He is currently the team’s primary heavy lifter at the center position. He had the hardest Zone Starts of any Flames center last season (47.7%) and played reasonably tough competition as well (Corsi QoC = 0.159). This will severely limit his point total.
$4.5 million is worth it if he faces top competition in our own end and pushes the play north, which he did with a Corsi/60 of 7.65
Ryan
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
Lanks games played in 07/08: 80
Lanks games played in 08/09: 73
Lanks games played in 09/10: 72
Lanks 5on5 icetime in 07/08: 14:05 minutes per game
Lanks 5on5 icetime in 08/09: 12:50 minutes per game
Lanks 5on5 icetime in 09/10: 13:30 minutes per game
Lanks 5on4 icetime in 07/08: 3:38 minutes per game
Lanks 5on4 icetime in 08/09: 3:40 minutes per game
Lanks 5on4 icetime in 09/10: 2:15 minutes per game
I leave you to draw your own conclusions.
love this! Easy to see, easy to understand.
Ryan
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
Cause or effect ?
Langkow’s production down because of reduced ice time – or coaches reduce ice time because they see less production ? It goes both ways.
Langkow’s downswing began when Mike Keenan inexplicably dumped him off the first line in favour of Todd Bertuzzi. When the idiot realized Bertuzzi was a huge mistake on the first line, he never corrected the other half of the error, putting pretty much everyone but Langkow with Iginla.
One of the constants of the last two years has been that Iginla and Langkow both performed better when paired together.
looks like
It was Sutter that reduced his PP time by almost 50%, not Keenan. The great Jokinen experiment with Iggy also occurred and then Stajan.
Don’t recall Bertuzzi playing centre during his time in Calgary though.
by PrairieStew on Aug 25, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, it was Sutter who cut the PP time, but it was Keenan who took him off the first line. Keenan put Bertuzzi between Iginla and Cammalleri to start 08-09, but after his five game hot streak to start the season wore off, it became obvious that Bertuzzi was little more than a black hole at centre. So Keenan moved Bertuzzi down to the second line where he became a black hole at right wing.
Unfortunately, the stat site I got it from no longer exists, but nearly every player on the roster scored less and was scored on more when paired with Bertuzzi than without. Moving Bert down freed Iginla to have an 89 point season and Cammalleri to set a career high in goals despite having Conroy at centre for much of the year, but sucked the life out of Langkow. Even Bourque suffered with Bertuzzi – he had a career year going that season, but it would have been even better with just about anyone else on the right wing.
5 good games at centre – that would explain me not remembering.
With whom does Bert play in Detroit and what is the result ? Someone must think he still provides some value.
Depends. Last year, particularly with all the injuries, he was playing with Zetterberg on the 2nd line a lot.
by SmellOfVictory on Aug 25, 2010 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I love that parting shot too. “A #1 or #2 centre”.
Reasonable people would say that if you’re playing against the best, and you’re doing well against the best, then you may very well be among the best.
you know
I’m just being realistic. As guys age they play less per game, lose time to injury, lose PP time to younger guys etc as you have pointed out. You can quote zone starts and quality of competion rates and “pushing the play north” all you want; the game is still measured on the scoreboard. He is the highest paid centre on the team and will remain so for the next 2 seasons. Looking at the guys he has outscored for most of his career, none of them topped 70 points at his age or beyond. I mean no disrespect to Langkow, but for this team to be succesful there needs to be at least one scoring centre and 30-50 points is not enough. It’s not an indictment of Langkow, but of management who has allowed this core group to age together hoping for a return to 2004.
The first line(Tanguay – Langkow – Iginla) on this team is all over 30 and have expereinced at least 2 consecutive seasons of decline in production heading in to this year.
The second line ( Bourque – Jokinen – Hagman) has 2 of 3 also over 30 and 2 of 3 having never topped 60 points in a season.
The third line (Glencross – Stajan – Moss) has 2 guys in their late 20’s who don’t yet have 100 CAREER points.
So the fundamental question facing this team is who is going to score? I
I agree with you that the Flames biggest problem is scoring. That said, I don’t believe that’s Lanks role on this team. For a team to have scorers, they need to be free to play in the offensive end of the ice. Therefore, someone else has to take the tough minutes.
Langkow is as valuable as any forward on the team, it’s just that his contributions don’t show up as much in point totals as other players. If he turns a defensive zone draw into a few shots on net and a face-off in the opponent’s end for Iggy, Tanguay, Joker or anyone else – that’s fantastic.
Ryan
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
I can agree
I agree that Langkow is valuable and he is probably the guy you want out in defensive situations, but at 34 it is increasingly unfair to ask him to do all of the heavy lifitng; yet at $4.5m he has to. 3 years ago he was all of this and a point producer – now, as you say ( and the evidence shows) he is no longer the point producer. The downfall of the team is, similar to Iginla & Kipper, that he has no one to pass the torch to.
I would even agree that he is as valuable as any other forward on the team. The problem is that it is a not a very good group of forwards. They were the 29th place goal scoring team; and were 25th in both shots and shooting percentage and – though I haven’t verified this one – is possibly the oldest group of forwards in the league. The young(er) guys they had – Dawes, Boyd, Nystrom are gone and I am trying, with not much success, to figure out where improvement will come from.
by PrairieStew on Aug 25, 2010 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
the game is still measured on the scoreboard.
I forget, how are goals scored again?
Right, via scoring chances, which are easier to come by if you are in the offensive zone and/or if you are a good player, thus making uality of competition and starting position of shifts more important than some half-ass point-based comps that have no basis in the actual reality of the game on the ice.
You can quote zone starts and quality of competion rates and "pushing the play north" all you want
This is some of the most half-assed backhanded commentary I have seen on this site, and that’s saying something given what I usually produce :-)
I guess it’s my mistake though, escuse me for trying to use numbers that actually have a basis in reality, instead of hanging my hat on points and faceoff percentages
This just in - Hockey Summit decides to use Corsi rates instead of goals to determine game outcomes
Are you saying that scoring is not based in reality – but puck possession is ? Do they measure the score of a football game by time of possession or touchdowns? Chances are if you have the ball more than the other guy you win, but not always. My point is that you still have to score and that’s the most real statistic.
It’s frustrating as hell to watch a team who holds the puck more than half the time but still loses because they can’t score. Watching that unit of Kotalik, – Langkow and Higgins was exactly that. It looked like they were playing well but there were no results. You know there are players that are out there that you don’t see or notice for most of the game then bang they pounce and score. Guys like Moginly and Bure used to be like that. I’m sure their Corsi rates were for crap, but they sure scored a hell of a lot of points.
I think it was Lafleur that said it’s not the legs that go as you get older it is the hands. With 5 of the top 6 forwards over 30, and a team that only scored 201 goals last year, this team is in deep kaka. The chances of any of them as individuals scoring more than they did last year, is about 1 in 3 based on the real fact that guys over 30 slow down, as proved out by historical study. The chances of two of them doing that would then be 1 in 9. All 5 – if you remember your high school math 1 in 243 or 0.4%.
among the best ?
Here is my (qualitative) list of the 15 best centres this season in the Western Conference. All of them are younger than Langkow. Some of the time I would expect Langkow to play some of them even, and even on rare occasions outplay; but if you are really being honest there is probably not a name on this list you wouldn’t swap for a 34 year old Langkow.
J Toews
P Sharp
Getzlaf
Stastny
M Duchene
Brad Richards
Datsyuk
Zetterberg (when he plays centre)
Kopitar
Mikko Koivu
Thornton
Pavelski
H Sedin
Kesler
Note the 5 teams that have 2 guys on the list – those would be
by PrairieStew on Aug 25, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course, the elephant in the room is his neck injury. The latest reports were positive, but I am not expecting Langkow to start the season on time.
I don’t think Lanks will start the season either. I think that’s the main reason they signed Conroy. While Connie is still a useful player, I don’t think he’d be on the roster if Lanks was healthy.
Ryan
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
You’re right, you weren’t very clear earlier, I could hardly tell your opinion ;)
Ryan
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
It’s obvious of a few things to me:
1 Langkow is our best centre regardless of points produced
2 He is 34 and declining
3 He used to be very good at BOTH “pushing the play north” and scoring those over-rated silly things called points but he had more help.
I am not sure I agree with PS that he is over paid. A bunch of the elite centres you listed are younger, make more than he does and can do both score and move things the right way. Seems to me he makes just about as much as he should.
Overpaid/underpaid
He was a very good value when scoring 77 pts. You have to be prepared to accept a player’s value declining, but you are only successful when there are young guys coming in who are underpaid to compensate.
Chicago won the Cup with a bunch of guys who were “underpaid” – relative to their performance but once they got that Cup – they have got their due.
If there are 20 teams who spend to the cap and only 16 make the playoffs – how many of those teams have overpaid ? The 4 who miss? Those 4 plus the 8 who lose in the first round ? Or are the final 4 the only ones who got value ?
Calgary will spend to the cap and are, by all predictions at best a bubble team to make the playoffs. Without a playoff series win, I therefore posit that the team as a whole is overpaid. As the 2nd highest paid forward, Langkow is more than likely part of the problem, than part of the solution. I can accept the argument from those who believe he is close to neutral, but to be really succesful, we need some guys playing way over their value to make the team competitive. The 3 contracts that were of high value last year were Bourque, White and Giordano and 2 of those guys got raises, leaving only Gio to compensate for the fact that there are still 3 defensemen that are overpaid relative to their performance ( unless Bouw has a Norris like year in 10-11). At forward a 09-10 combo of Jokinen, Bourque and Nystrom cost $7.3M, this year Jokinen, Bouque and Tanguay costs $8.1. That group needs to be 10% better, just to be neutral. Stajan also recieved a raise, leaving less room for young players to compensate for older players declning relative values.
Just to throw in my two cents, the guys who I think are overpaid on the Flames are as follows:
Kotalik
Staios
Sarich
Stajan (slightly)
Iginla, based on last season
Bouwmeester
Langkow (slightly)
This year I could see Stajan potentially living up to his contract, Iginla potentially living up to his contract, and Langkow being worth his contract given the Flames’ situation, if not being full value. Bourque’s raise was pretty reasonable, and I fully expect him to outplay his contract for at least the next 2-3 years.
Jokinen/Bourque/Tanguay should easily outdo Jokinen/Bourque/Nystrom, if only because Tangs is likely to double Nystrom’s points in a bad season, and more if he regains his previous form. I don’t see Tanguay playing to anything less than full contract value, and he’s highly likely to outplay it by a notable margin. Joker and Bourque should be at least in range of last year’s values.
by SmellOfVictory on Aug 28, 2010 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m hoping you are right. I guess my point was to note that although Jokinen was brought back at a discount – it is almost completely offset by the raise to Bouque; and the upgrade of Tanguay over Nystrom is roughly a million more.
Agree that more is expected from Stajan; but he is still on the upward curve, unfortunately there are more guys on the other side of the curve.
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