Jarome Iginla-The Aging Of A Star Player
by PrairieStew on Jul 2, 2010 11:46 PM PDT
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PrintAlot of discussion has taken place recently about the age of the Flames and whether the veterans can bounce back from down years. Intuitively , the age of 30 or just after seems to be the beginning of the decline of players. I thought I'd go in to some historical stats and compare Iginla to his peers from recent NHL seasons. Not all is equal for sure, but by comparing to 5 players - things average out pretty well and we certainly can identify some trends that can give a pretty good reading
What to expect from Iggy ?
Jarome Iginla will end his career as a 500 goal and 1000 point career player – how much can be expected from him over the final 3 years of his contract ?
I pulled the goal stats (only) for 5 reasonably comparable players. Two of the comparables have career numbers that will be most likely less than Iggy’s, one very close, and two with higher final totals than Jarome is likely to attain. The 5 that I used were( in order): Brian Bellows, Lanny McDonald, Pat Verbeek , Brendan Shanahan and Brett Hull. All were goal scoring wingers (right hand shots), whose game was more power than finesse, with the exception of HullI who, at least early in his career, was pretty much all about the shot. I wanted to see how Iggy performed in stages of his career relative to these guys and extrapolate what can be expected.
All of the players, with the exception of Hull (who was 23), played in the NHL as 20-year-olds. A couple began their careers at 19, but for the purpose of this comparison, I started at 20.
For the 5 year period of 20-24 the control group averaged 31.5 goals per year, with a steady increase from 23 goals at 20 to 41 goals at 24. Iggy averaged 30.6 during that stretch; pretty good considering that was the start of the trap era. He trailed the cohort early on, but his 52 goal campaign at 24 brought him back up to very near the group average.
From 25-29 the group had the strongest showing – averaging 42.8, the strongest 2 years being 25 and 26 (both 46.8). Iggy trailed every year throughout this stretch averaging 37.5 goals per year. He was denied his 27 year old season because of the lockout, which is too bad – peak of his career – and presumably he’d be on the cusp of the 500 goal mark by now. Given the era, and losing one year - it can easily be argued that Iggy should be dead centre in this group during the peak of his career.
From 30-35 the group quickly starts to tail off, but Iginla beats the averages. In his 30 year old season Jarome scored 50, outdoing the group at 37.4. Jarome’s 35 goals at 31 beats the groups 33.2, but that was brought down by an 8-goal Bellows campaign. Last year at age 32, Iginla’s 32 goals ranked ahead of the group average by 5.6 goals.
So what does the future hold for Iginla at 33 and beyond? For these 5 players, the next 3 seasons averaged 27.8, 24.6, and 19.6 goals. Assuming Iginla can beat the cohort by the same amount that he has averaged for the last 3 years, (6.7 goals on average), the projected goal totals would be 35, 31, and 26--taking him to the end of his 35 year old season and the end of his contract (and ending with 533 goals). If he plays to 39, another 80 career goals and a shot at 600 are not out of the question.
What is important to note is the following :
- From 20-24 the group's goal average increased every year
- From 25-29 the production was the highest
- From 25-29 – the variation from year to year was the smallest – the average goals stayed in a fairly tight range – 40.4 to 46.8.
- From 25-29 – numbers could trend back up after a down season, but the bounce-back was less than 5% (2 goals)
- From 30-34 the numbers declined – with a small increase one year (32 to 33) of 1.4 goals on average for the 5 players
- The average of the group bounced back up significantly at 37, because 3 of those players had retired by that year – and the only data was Hull at 30 goals and Shanahan’s 40.
- Iginla’s post-30 numbers are better than this group so far. Owing to his great conditioning – he has slipped less on average than this group did.
- Of the 25 seasons played by the 5 players studied, after they turned 33 there were no 50 goal seasons, one 40 goal campaign, and 7 others of over 30.
I believe Jarome will continue to outperform this group for the next 3 years, and because of his conditioning, even beyond. This group scored 30 goals roughly a third of the time after they turned 33 – I think Iggy will get there at least twice more in the next 3 years. Only once (4%) did any of those guys score 40 in their mid to late 30’s – I would put Jarome’s chances at less than 10% to do that. If Iggy scores fifty he would be the only the 3rd player to do it after 33 – Jagr at 33 in 05-06 with 54, and Johnny Bucyk at 35 scored 51 in 70-71.
Winning at hockey is more than goal scoring, and I recognize Iginla's other intangibles; but the 5 players listed above also had those qualities - and all except Hull were captains. Jarome could smoke the record of these guys in the mid to late 30's - but if he averaged 10 -15 goals per season above this group - he will have outscored an outstanding group, but still not have enough to score 50.
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Steady
Shanny was the steadiest through the end of his career and would represent the upper limit of the group at this age.
At 33 he scored 25, then the lockout, at 35 he got the 40 goal season, then 29 36, 2337 and the half season at 38 and 6 goal. Those last 3 would be beyond Iggy’s current contract.
Given Iggy’s conditioning, if he plays with reasonable linemates, I don’t see why he can’t continue something similar. I don’t think any of the guys you named played so many of their years as a one-man team the way Iggy has, and as you pointed out, Iggy has kept up with/outscored them despite rather unfavourable conditions.
by SmellOfVictory on Jul 5, 2010 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions
no problem with Iggy
Except that he is still the best player on the team, despite being in the last third of his career. So the problem is there isn’t enough to support him. In looking at those goal scorers, it was interesting to note that, on average their best seasons were when they were 25 and 26. Who do the Flames have currently at that age ? Just 3 defencemen – White, Giordano and Bouwmeester
cool comparison
I like the comparison and the way you broke down the trends during different stages of their careers. Did you give any thought to the quality of teammates they played with?
In particular, I remember Shanahan playing on a VERY talented Red Wings squad and I’m not sure Iggy has the same calibre of players around him.
Ryan
Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
difficult
Difficult to compare qualtity of teammates – some would be more favourable, some less, and stretched over a 15 year period hard to convert that qualitative measure to a quantitative one. That is why I chose 5 players and used the average – thinking that all in all it would average out to a midpoint that is a reasonable predictor. I was pleased, but not suprised to see that Iggy is ahead of the group in the latter stages of his career. When Lanny was 33 he only had 14 goals in 58 games – I expect way more from Iggy this year.
Team mates and line mates
Its a fair, and valid reasoning that Iginla will slow down, however, the linemates affect the outcome, a rogue variable. With solid linemates his production could remain constant or improve. Praire Stew is right, the trend is clear, my point is that Iginla has yet to play with the ideal linemates. Maybe this upcoming season. Ryan makes the same point. I have to side with Ryan and commend PS for doing the statistics-very time consuming
Its important to lock in some line combination’s and expect Iginla to continue to be the heart and soul of the team.
heart and soul
Jarome is the heart and soul, but it is getting increasingly unfair to ask him to be. The year Lanny was 32 and turned 33 during the season – the Flames had a young Hakan Loob ( 7 years younger), and acquired Joey Mullen( 4 years younger) during the season. During the run to the finals, Lanny, Riseborough (32) and Tonelli (29) made up the 3rd line – are were called the “not ready for retirement” line.
At 33 Shanahan shared the shooters role with a 37 year old Brett Hull, Federov in his prime, Yzerman, Robatille and young guns Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Despite excellent regular season they were swept in first round.
Hull at 33 led the Blues in scoring his last season in St Lou (27 g 72 pts) with Pierre Turgeon and Geoff Courtnall. Macinnis and Pronger on D with Grant Fuhr and Jamie McLennan in net and Craig Conroy on the checking line. They lost in the 2nd round.
Thanks
Who is next ?
Kipper ? and if so should it be wins, GAA or sv % ? I’m thinking sv % as it is least dependent of team performance.
or Langkow ?
The gold standard is EV sv%, but yeah, GAA is somewhere between problematic and meaningless
by SmellOfVictory on Jul 5, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Definitely Save %
ES Save % is by far the most reliable. I also read something over at Brodeur is a Fraud about 80% ES and 20% PK being an ideal mix for save % evaluation.
I’d definitely be interested to hear your thoughts on Kipper. For those interested, I submitted an article to Puck Prospectus last night evaluating Sutter’s strange FA moves, I’ll post a link once it’s up.
Ryan
Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
Iginla was the prospect for Neiwendyke
It would be interesting if we took a look at the best and worst trades made by the Flames. Sutter isn’t a bad trader, how would he rate? We need prospects developing but there seems to be too few. Have the past trades caught up with us?
PStew makes a point for youth, its hard to ignore after seeing Chicago go all the way, but they’ve let important pieces go like Dustin Byfuglien. It makes you wonder, the trend is for rent a players (UFAs) and a group of extremely well paid veterans or stars. If only one prospect makes the team-Backlund-then whats going on in Abbottsford? We need speed and scoring, any farm hands ready to make the jump? No draft picks, few prospects, how long can that go?
CHI has traded away 7 players from the team that won the cup-a turnover of about 30 percent. The reason they were able to have as much talent as they did was because they drafted well-after almost a decade of pure sucktiude. That’s what it takes to get the kind of talent they had.
Why do you suggest that Sutter trades well, and then say “past trades have caught up with us”? I would not hesitate to say that everyone on the team today save Reggie and Iggy were brought in by Sutter.
The 4th Line Blog
Go Flames Go
by Justin Azevedo on Jul 5, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Perfect storm
Chicago had the perfect storm – their 2 best forwards stil on their enty level deals – which allowed them to load up on salary in other areas – Hossa, Campbell and Huet. Lucky for them that although Huet didn’t play to his value – Niemi did and now the chickens are coming home to roost. They did draft very well at the top end (Kane,Toews, Keith and to a lesser extent Barker) but made big money on lower picks becoming stars.
Pittsburgh sucked for a while too. So did Washington. That got them the lottery picks – but it is the lower picks that you have to get as well to make it work. Unfortunately for Calgary they haven’t had 3 good draft years in a row since 83-85.
Trades - now and then
Evaluating trades over eras is difficult. Betore the Gretzky trade to LA in 88, a trade was evaluated on the performance of the players involved. EG Boston robbed Chicago of Phil Esposito and Ken Hodge for Pit Martin. After the Gretzky trade things changed immensely. First salary disclosure and the lifting of the the Gretzky cap ( made less than a million in Edmonton, immediately tripled his wage in LA) changed the dynamic of negotiations and trades It became increasingly about market size and affordability, especially with lengthy holdouts, with the Canadian markets on the short end of the stick, being forced to make deals to move on.
The Gilmour trade ( widely lamented as one of the worst in hockey history, let alone Flames history) was a product of the post Gretzky market. Gilmour felt he was worth more than what he was being paid/offered and the team said he was slowing down at 29; and the stalemate was on. Because free agency did not kick in until a player was 33 or 34 at that time, there were few very free agents and those guys were overvalued, it created a huge pressure on ownership to pay the guys in their prime years as well as they were paying the retread FA’s. Holdouts ensued.
The Nieuwendyk deal was much the same – he held out to get his $ in declining Canadian market. One could argue that that deal worked out for both – as Calgary got the future star and Dallas got its championship. Fleury was a little different as he was about to get in on 31 year old free agency and Calgary traded him before he got there. The return ( Regehr) was also pretty good.
I think what might be a better analysis is how Sutter does relative to when the trades are made. His work on draft day has been good : Leopold and 2 second rounders for a 25 year old Tanguay. A 27 year old Tanguay to Montreal for a first rounder, then sending a first rounder for a cheaper and more productive Cammaleri.
In contrast his work at the deadline not so good : Ference and Kobasew – both young, inexpensive and productive players for Stuart ( who was not that good and then didn’t resign)and Primeau ( who was not good at all). Also we all know about the other bad deadline deal the #1 pick, Lombardi and Prust for Jokinen 1.0.
team captains
Good post, but I have to quibble.
“Winning at hockey is more than goal scoring, and I recognize Iginla’s other intangibles; but the 5 players listed above also had those qualities – and all except Hull were captains.”
Hull was captain of the Blues for several years in the early 1990s, while Shanahan never served as captain. Brian Bellows, I believe, is considered by some to be the youngest-ever captain in the NHL, except that his was an interim title held as a 19-year-old with the North Stars.
That said, if you wanted to consder all 5 of this men to be leaders of their respective organizations throughout their careers, I don’t think anyone could call you on that.
Oh yeah, and trade Kiprusoff. (To philly?) I love Kipper, he plays to his salary, but Calgary has more pressing concerns. Sutter should then sign Turco for 3-per, if he’s still available.
Trade Gaffs
Ultimately Riseborough’s trade with Fletcher (his old boss) sending Gilmour to Toronto for Gary Leeman was brutal. On January 2nd, 1992 Maple Leafs traded Craig Berube, Alexander Godynyuk, Gary Leeman, Michel Petit and Jeff Reese to the Calgary Flames for Doug Gilmour, Jamie Macoun, Ric Nattress, Rick Wamsley and Kent Manderville. The only player to stick from the five player swap with Toronto was Berube.
My comments about Sutter being a good trader, well I probably meant to say a busy trader, he likes to deal, and its always risky. Sorry Justin, I did sound contradictory. The trading has caught up with us though, no draft picks and few prospects and UFAs flying in and out the door.I mean, at least one second rounder minimum would have smoothed out the Phaneuf deal. White, if he signs elsewhere or we are capped out and have to sell his rights we were certifiably fleeced for Phaneuf.
As far as trades, Mullen, Gilmour and Hull all were traded in a couple of seasons, and I vividly remember those three together having more points one season than the entire Flames team. Therefore, Sutter is a comparatively competent trader.
It really burns my ass how Iggy just took the plunge into the elevator after 07/08.
I mean that season he was DOMINANT. It wasn’t just the points, it was the influence on puck possession. He had killer linemates too, the Flames top 6 was legit. It was just too damn bad that the 3rd lines and lower were so terrible, I mean it’s not often that you see that end of the roster losing you games but that’s exactly what happened for the Flames.
Missed opportunity. I’m glad that Sutter fixed that bottom 6-8 right quick. But damn I keep thinking about what could’ve been.
Oh well. I don’t think you could blame him for thinking that maybe Iginla could provide at least 1-3 more years of that level of difference-making. I keep thinking he’s injured and he keeps going on record that he’s not. What, the degradation in the body from 29 to 30 is too large for Jarome fuckin’ Iginla to overcome? I think not.
Something happened, I know it.
one wonders
If Kipper had played as well that year as he did last – only .906 that year. He gets .920 and you are looking at 25 or fewer goals so instead of a plus 2 goal diff at the end of the year you are looking at almost plus 30. They only needed 3 more wins to get the 3 seed instead of the 7…. coulda shoulda woulda…
Regardless of what Sutter thinks of Iginla’s ability to be the difference maker as you say, the reality is you have him and he’s not going anywhere for at least the next 2.5 years.
I guess the numbers say he is in decline, but not as steep as some others – if it gives you comfort to think he has had some injury that has not been revealed – well OK.
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