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The Flames' Hardest Hitters for 2009-10

A few days ago, I talked about the Flames' supposed identity, how a part of that was toughness and physical play, specifically hitting, and how they finished in the bottom half of the league in total hits. The merits of tracking real time stats like hits have long been debated due to league-wide discrepancies in what fits the criteria associated with hits, giveaways, blocked shots, and takeaways; The Flames were first in the league in road hits with 1038 and second last at home with 670, ahead of only Vancouver and Atlanta, and home scorers are typically more generous when crediting the local squad with board-rattling body checks. Adam Pardy was on the receiving end of more hits than he gave out both at home and on the road, while Mark Giordano dished out more hits on the road, but also took more. A quick glance at the NHL's real-time stats page will tell you that, contrary to the beliefs of some general managers, physical play is not always synonymous with success. Five of the top ten hitting teams in the league this season missed the playoffs, while seven of the ten teams ranked below the Flames in that category made the post season. Both Gabe of Behind The Net fame and, more recently, Bruce from The Copper & Blue have examined hitting in-depth, and I thought I'd take a look at who the most physical Flames were this past season.  

Star-divide

Name GP Hits Hits/GP TkA
 Mark Giordano 82 153 1.87 33
Robyn Regehr 81 125 1.54 18
Cory Sarich 57 116 2.04 6
Jay Bouwmeester 82 73 0.89 24
Ian White 83 54 0.65 35
Adam Pardy 57 54 0.95 16
Steve Staios 58 54 0.93 12

The heavy hitters on the Flames blueline were as expected, although I was somewhat surprised to see Gio at the top of the list in hits. Sarich's Hits/GP rate likely would have evened out had he played a whole season, but is pretty impressive nonetheless, given how far above any other Flames defender he is by that metric. The fact that he only played 57 games somewhat speaks to his willingness to get involved in the physical side of things, although I believe most of his injuries have been sustained from shot-blocking.  I also included takeaways (TkA) in my table because I wanted to see if there was any connection between guys who hit a lot, therefore separating an opposing player from the puck, and takeaways. It turned out there really isn't a pattern, aside from that the guys usually considered more agile, "puck moving defencemen" like Giordano, White, and Bouwmeester all had the most takeaways.

Name GP Hits Hits/GP TkA
Christopher Higgins 67 130 1.94 44
Eric Nystrom 82 117 1.43 35
Ales Kotalik 71 117 1.65 22
Rene Bourque 73 91 1.25 47
Jarome Iginla 82 86 1.05 45
Daymond Langkow 72 80 1.11 63
David Moss 64 79 1.23 21
Curtis Glencross 67 78 1.16 50
Matt Stajan 82 77 0.94 40
Jamal Mayers 71 69 0.97 21
Nigel Dawes 66 66 1 14
Craig Conroy 63 43 0.68 26
Niklas Hagman 82 35 0.43 28
Brian McGrattan 34 16 0.47 2

The hitting trends for Flames forwards were a little different than I anticipated. I expected Nystrom and Bourque to be near the top, but I wouldn't have thought that Higgins would lead all forwards in hits. It's likely that only a small percentage of those came when he was with the Flames, considering he only played twelve games for Calgary this season, but it's just another indication that he's a pretty good player. For a guy that's often criticized for being "soft," I expected Stajan to have fewer hits and I was pleasantly surprised to see Kotalik near the top of the list as well, although that does little to change my opinion of him.  With the forwards, the connection between hits and takeaways is a little more visible, but still not significant. 

Not every player chooses or is able to play a more physical game, which arguably makes hitting something of a skill, and something that is valued and emphasized by some coaches and organizations more than others. The importance of these numbers depends on your perception of how much hitting actually influences the various events during a game. If you believe it has a big impact on a game, you might be underwhelmed, but if you believe it has little impact, you might consider these numbers to be fairly unimportant. Myself, I'm somewhere in the middle. I think hitting does have an impact on a game, as we saw with the Flames on many occasions this past season when their physical play allowed them to gain the edge in possession and draw more penalties and vice versa when they were getting out-hit by the opposition. However, it's not the be all and end all, and it's certainly not going to be primary cause of one team scoring more goals and/or winning more games than another. What do you think? 

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I think this list just shows how much Gio has of the quality known as ‘spunk’. Smaller guy, most hits on the team by a pretty substantial margin. Most guys around that size don’t run around like a tiny freight train (although I’ll admit, that doesn’t bode well for him ageing gracefully).

by SmellOfVictory on May 6, 2010 9:15 PM PDT reply actions  

I guess “tiny” freight train is a bit hyperbolic, but I wanted the best imagery I could provide.

by SmellOfVictory on May 6, 2010 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Opposite

The stats actual show an inverse tendency. i.e. hitters actually have fewer takeaways. Looking at the per game hit and takeaway stats for the whole league, the general pattern is for players with more takeaways to have fewer hits. There’s a lot of scatter in the plot, but the clustering does support the general pattern. i.e. skill players don’t hit but can still strip the puck, but there are skilled players that do hit. Carcillo & Ovechkin rank 44 & 45 in hits per game, but Ovechkin has 3x the takeaways. I’ll give you one guess as to which is the outlier.

by Drewid on May 7, 2010 11:41 AM PDT reply actions  

I was actually wondering if there was any correlation between TkA and Hits, and i found that there wasn’t any, but i only used Flames data (i did an F test and had a p value of 0.2634). I would be curious to see a league-wide data set that you have used.
I also did some regression analysis on whether there was any relation between Hits and penalties (taken or drawn) using both the Flames and Penguins players as two separate data sets. Neither showed any relation between penalties drawn and Hits or penalties taken and hits(p value between 0.22 and 0.36).
This would indicate that, somewhat counter-intuitively, “more physical” players don’t actually take more penalties.

by Chris Drury on May 7, 2010 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

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