A Case of the Mondays: Dissecting Sutter-Speak
by Hayley on Apr 12, 2010 5:17 PM PDT
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PrintYou know it's playoff time when there's snow on the ground in Calgary and the Flames have been eliminated from contention for almost a week, as an alternative to awaiting their annual first-round bow-out at the hands of the Western Conference's flavour of the month. So, while other teams' fans exchange verbal blows and prepare for the first of many grueling playoff series, we're left to sift through the rubble of this season and attempt to find something worth salvaging. But alas--a glimmer of hope! Answers and truth and clarity and direction surely lie ahead in today's Ken King/Darryl Sutter press conference! Any of us who have listened to the pair's famous season's end pressers, or any pressers for that matter, knew that this likely wasn't the case--and, as usual, we were right. I'm really at a loss for words to describe what we all heard this afternoon; none of it was particularly unexpected--your typical, run of the mill load of management mumbo-jumbo bullshit--but the situation going into the off-season now appears more convoluted and, if possible, bleaker than ever for those of us who were holding out hope for significant change. With that in mind, here are a few points from today's presser:
- Sutter essentially blamed the team's failure to make the post-season on a poor home record, and not the fact that the they pulled up the rear in terms of goals for this season. The most ludicrous part of the whole hour was the GM's contention that goal scoring wasn't an issue. It took about five minutes for the "League parity/If we played in the Eastern Conference..." excuse to rear its ugly head.
- The plan for next season seems to be to bring up a few more young guys and keep the rest of the roster in tact, hoping for a resurgence from the likes of Iginla, Langkow, Bouwmeester, Stajan, and Hagman and praying that Kiprusoff has another Vezina-calibre season up his sleeve. Call me crazy, but wasn't that the plan going into this season as well? That worked out well, right?
- Sutter justifies the return of his trades by saying that the players acquired in his dealings ended up 3-4-5 in scoring. Those players are Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, and Ian White and all did the majority of their scoring while still wearing the Maple Leaf. He contends that the team is still young and fast enough to compete, and thinks that Jokinen is still a "really good player" and that the trade "wasn't based on how he played".
- It appears that Conroy likely will not be back, as Sutter doesn't think he has the potential to improve next season, which are probably the truest words he uttered over the course of the hour.
- Sutter all but admitted to much talked about "locker room issues" being part of the reason for the mid-season trades of Dion Phaneuf and Olli Jokinen, stating that there were "different personalities that don't always work," and that players needed to "want to play here," whatever that means. The closest he came to admitting he made a mistake was by saying that as a GM, he should have been monitoring the situation more closely.
- Darryl is very happy with the progress of the Heat and the Flames' junior prospects, although he can't seem to name any of them other than Backlund and Erixon. He did acknowledge that the team needs to work on drafting college players and that he will "work at obtaining draft picks." At the same time, he stated that he feels there is no need to move any more big contracts and that the struggles of his "core" players aren't an issue, so how he will go about acquiring those picks is beyond me.
- Believes that the coaching staff is solid, young, accomplished what he wanted them to (likely speaking in terms of defensive improvement) and will learn from this experience.
- Sutter claims that he's not looking at the off-season from a personnel standpoint, but trying to "reclaim" the team's "identity." Good Lord, I shudder to think what that means. [Insert name of latest Sutter Reclamation Project™ here]
- Ken King discussed the prospect of bringing in more staff to help Darryl in the hockey operations department and spent much of his time praising and/or defending Darryl while essentially guaranteeing the safety of his job despite any pending "review." The pair laughed when faced with a question pertaining to the terms of Sutter's contract and whether it disregarded any league regulations, confirming the belief that the GM will likely only ever leave the team on his own terms, when he sees fit. It seems apparent that ownership/management will never have the stones to fire him.
- Darryl doesn't want to put too much pressure on Backlund and Stajan and compromise the former's development by saddling them with the responsibility of Iginla's success.
- 97% of the Flames' season ticket holders have already renewed their subscriptions for next season as Ken King continues to preach the organization's dedication to entertainment value after the team scored only ninety-five goals on home ice this season. Business is a' booming.
Have at 'er.
Being that this is one of two days off before the playoffs begin (tomorrow will be occupied by the oh-so-compelling draft lottery), most of today's news consists of playoff previews--not especially relevant to fans of a tenth place team, unless you need advice on building your playoff fantasy team, to which I say you're asking the wrong gal, my draft is tomorrow and I need all the help I can get--so with that in mind, I present you with a selection of this Monday's news and notes.
TLP's season review is up a Flames Nation, and it's a must read
The Herald's hockey writers have compiled their Flames End-of-Season Report Card (Spoiler Alert: Darryl Sutter gets a D)
Evander Kane's KO decision over Matt Cooke, Ken King's rumoured micromanaging, and multiple endorsements for the city of Yellowknife at Hit The Post
Domebeers offer their take on the season that was and more in The Week Ahead
The Sutter Brothers, or at least two of them, are apparently at odds [The Sun]
Abbotsford wrapped up the regular season last night with a 4-3 shootout victory over the Lake Erie Monsters and Mitch Wahl scored his first career AHL goal and added an assist. The Heat finished the season with a record of 38-29-5-7 and 90 points, and will kick off their first round playoff series against the Rochester Americans on Thursday. The Heat held a 3-1 edge over the Americans during regular season play. [Abbotsford Heat]
The Hitmen beat the Medicine Hat Tigers in game six of their second round playoff series, and will advance to play either the Saskatoon Blades or the Brandon Wheat Kings [Calgary Herald]
Eric Nystrom and David Moss will play for Team USA at the World Championships in Germany [USA Today]
Does anyone else feel just a little bad for Olli Jokinen after the Rangers' playoff hopes died on his stick last night? I mean, the shootout is no way to decide who makes the playoffs and who doesn't, I think we're all in agreement there, and the dude has played 881 regular season games with only six playoff appearances, all with the Flames last season. Ouch. [Puck Daddy]
Henrik Sedin is your 2009-10 Art Ross Trophy winner, but will he also get the Hart? [Elliotte Friedman's 30 Thoughts]
We've already seen the end of Keith Tkatchuk's career and possibly Mike Modano's this season, could Rod Brind'Amour be next? [The News & Observer]
Puck Daddy has your Top 10 Playoff Storylines as well as 10 Bold Predictions for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The playoff schedule is official [NHL] and the first of many playoff previews and predictions are making the rounds [TSN]
Down Goes Brown offers advice for winning your playoff pool
Patrice Cormier has signed a try-out contract with the Chicago Wolves after the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies were eliminated from the QMJHL playoffs, as per Chris Vivlamore's twitter
Mike Cammalleri couldn't be more excited about the playoffs...*whimper* [Twitter]
Coyotes fans and the "Throw The Snake" movement that has set Twitter ablaze [Five For Howling]
Gabe examines the playoff goaltending and the concept of "hot goalies" in his series of posts leading up to the playoffs [Behind The Net]
Lastly, here's the video of today's press conference if you missed it or want to relive it for some incomprehensible reason. Bemoan the prospects of many more years of Darryl Sutter and the status quo and look forward to objectively watching playoff hockey in the comments.
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Sutter justifies the return of his trades by saying that the players acquired in his dealings ended up 3-4-5 in scoring. Those players are Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, and Ian White and all did the majority of their scoring while still wearing the Maple Leaf.
I was interested by this as well. I think it’s a combo of “looking forward” and PPG. They were not exactly 3-4-5 in PPG, but they were 3-7-8, with GlenX and Dawes only slightly ahead. Ian White scored the most points by a defender by PPG. However, Jokinen was working at a .625PPG pace, which would have been third on the team, but he’s gone cause as Sutter said before “everyone ran him out of town”
Just for the record Darryl: I defended Jokinen a ton, in fact, probably much more than he actually deserved. I can tell you this though, if we had to put up with Jokinen the whole season and his ‘expected’ 52 points in order to make an UFA offer on him of …let’s say 2.5-3 million for two years, and have him over Kotalik…I, for one, would be much more happy.
Sutter claims that he’s not looking at the off-season from a personnel standpoint, but trying to “reclaim” the team’s “identity.”
I missed the press conference, so thank you for the recap! A lot of what you said either terrifies me or fills me with the resignation of a long-term Leafs fan, but that bit I quoted is the worst of all, I think. I can’t even begin to understand how someone using that sort of thinking is allowed to run an NHL team.
It does just that for me too; I also found that part particularly worrisome. I have a hard time taking much of what he says seriously anymore. He could do something entirely different from the vague plan he outlined today and it wouldn’t surprise me, and I think that scares me more than anything he actually said today.
Totally unrelated (but not really related to any of the posts), but Gio made the top 10 goals of the year on the NHL site!
Technically he made it twice, once getting burned by Crosby as well. :D
Same old, same old
I can hardly wait for the slide into 11th/12th next year. Mind you, if they blew it up the Flames would likely slide further, but honestly, at least that would serve a purpose to get some serious talent on the ice.
Ha! That home goals comment was perfect Sutter double talk. First of all the Flames scored the fewest goals in the entire NHL, not just at home. Second of all just before the Olympic break Sutter was asked why the Flames were struggling at home. He said that this year with the way the sched is set up only the media talked about home and away records. he doesnt look at it like that.
Darryl, we are not as dumb as you think. Assface.
I think that was Sutters point
He definitely is a cryptic mofo, and this is by no means defending him or that cryptic talk. I am however interested in this distinction:
1. Are the Flames unable to score goals?
2. Do the Flames struggle inexplicably at scoring goals under particular conditions?
I think this is the distinction Sutter is trying to make, but it sounds like BS, because he’s not very articulate. (Think on par with my writing)
So when media asks, “What are you doing to correct the goal-scoring problem?” Sutter responds, “We don’t have a goal scoring problem” and everyone thinks he’s lost it.
Which he may have. However, he sites the home/away split. 15th in the league in goals scored on the road. Last in the league in goals scored at home. Last in the league in goals scored overall. So, that means we really scored less at home….by a ton, no? (I haven’t seen the numbers, but I assume so.)
So his defense is. “We can score goals, just not at home. Why?”
If the Flames are 6th in GA, and 15th in GF we are likely a top 10 team in the league and certainly in the playoffs. But when we are 6th in GA and 30th in GF, heavily hindered by scoring at home, I’m drinking the kool-aid, that there is a problem at home.
Even if we were 1st in the league in GF on the road, and 20th at home, and IN the playoffs, it’s a problem, especially for playoff success, where success at home at least carries the air of greater importance.
If the game is structured to give the home teams certain advantages we should in theory score more at home than on the road, but it’s not the case. I think Sutter is trying to say “This is the big problem, and I want to know why.”
Just looked it up
CAL
GF Home: 95
GF Road: 106
CHI
GF Home: 134
GF Road: 128
SJ
GF Home: 139
GF Road: 118
PHO
GF Home: 122
GF Road: 89
VAN
GF Home: 148
GF Road: 120
COL
GF Home: 123
GF Road: 114
There certainly is a trend with these other teams. I just grabbed those five cause I didn’t feel like doing all 8. But it’s the top two, bottom one and two division opp.
Average of the five ‘other’ teams
Goals Home: 133.2 (Calgary 38.2 goals off pace)
Goals Away: 113.8 (Calgary 7.8 goals off pace)
By the 6 goals equals a win equation (am I right about that?) that’s 1.3 road wins we lacked, and a stunning 6.4 home wins. Or in other words about 10 points, for a total of 100 points and 7th place if we managed the same scoring differential at home as on the road.
If the Flames managed the same scoring rate as compared to the Flames on the road and home, the difference is negligible – 11 goals, or about 1.5 wins. That sneaks the club into the playoffs, but not much else.
Now, if you want to try to normalize things according to NHL average rates, it would make sense to see the average difference between home and road scoring across the 30 teams, apply it to the Flames and see how it shakes out in terms of potential lost wins, that would make some sense.
If there’s any home issues, it’s probably that Sutter had last change and spent most of the season hard matching Jarome Iginla against the other teams best.
well, then it’s a coaching problem as much as it is a scoring problem, no?
it would make sense to see the average difference between home and road scoring across the 30 teams, apply it to the Flames and see how it shakes out in terms of potential lost wins, that would make some sense.
I don’t have time to do this, but maybe someone else wants to. I think we can safely assume the league average is likely ~12% higher scoring at home. Therefore the Flames were lacking about 22-24 goals. Or three to four wins as compared to the flames and estimated league differential. That six to 8 points makes a difference.
However, it certainly is true that it’s not going to change Calgary from a middling team to a Stanley Cup contender.
OK fine, you sucked me in
I did it.
AVG of 30 teams:
GF @ HOME: 121 (120.8 rounded up)
GF on ROAD: 106 (we were 15th and exactly average)
So, we lacked 26 goals at home to be average. Or 4.3 wins as I estimated. 8-9 points. at 99 points we would have been 12th in the league.
NHL average is scoring 14.1% greater at home.
We scored 12% less at home. A 26% difference. It’s pretty huge.
By comparison
6th in GA at home: 95
8th on the road: 108
I’m not doing any more number crunching on that.
Last thing from me for today
Going back to 05/06 the Flames themselves have averaged:
127 goals for at home
110 goals for on the road.
Last year we scored 105 goals on the road, one less than this year. However, we scored 146 at home, compared to 95 this year, 51 more goals at home.
Sutter appears to be correct. Our goal scoring on the road this year was decent, but at home, we were seriously lacking.
Yup, Sutter is correct.
I wish he offered some sort of explanation as to why it was so horrible, instead of just saying “Our home goal total was bad”
Could I call everyone together and say “Kipper had 35 wins this year. Last year he had 45 wins. If he won 10 more games, we’d be a contender.”
On the road, the Flames managed 106 goals on 1169 shots for a 9.1 SH%
At home, he Flames managed 95 goals on 1181 shots for a 8.0 SH%
Yup, the Flames managed 12 more shots on home ice, but 11 less goals. It’s an artifact of chance, essentially.
by Kent Wilson on Apr 13, 2010 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know if it’s that simple.
The year prior the Flames had 1400 shots on home ice and only 1244 on the road.
Everything was down significantly at home, shots, goals. The percentages were more in our favor last year, but that doesn’t explain everything.
We have to expect some variance in these numbers, and everyone is affected by that, but the Flames situation is much more in line with the exception than the norm.
I have found that you can’t count on shot counters. Look at any game played in Joe Louis, Detroit is given a ‘shot on net’ if they ice the puck in the blue paint.
I know that Marcoux used to lobby for increased shot totals against to improve Kiprusoff’s stats during home games.
Goals per scoring chance would be a better indication.
Im sure that is what he’s thinking Lawrence, but it’s not the right question to be asking. Frankly, the home/road difference in goal scoring is probably an artifact of chance – the Flames scored 95 goals at home and 106 on the road. The real issues are the Flames poor shot differential, driven by their inability to generate both penalties and shots on net. His players had lower shot totals relative to their career norms across the board.
well my point is that when you score the fewest goals in the NHL, your home scoring AND road scoring surely suck.
But then according to the Coach Sutter, lack of scoring was not the issue.
ya he did, about 10 days ago. He said that lack of scoring is not why they were in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.
Look, I’m not going to argue “he said/she said” I explained it above. He means “ability to score”
The Flames scored 17 more goals than Phoenix on the road and they are in 4th. 3rd by points.
All Im saying is that overall the Flames scored less (home/road) than anyone. I he cant admit that thats an issue instead of spinning a silver lining then we are just in for more of the same next season.
I’m not buying the “we didn’t score enough goals at home” explanation for a huge bust of a season, let alone accepting it as an adequate reason to call an HOUR LONG PRESS CONFERENCE.
Fair enough, you have reason to be disappointed. I guess rather than just screaming like a child, I’d rather see if Sutter’s logic is total BS, or if there is anything there at all.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
I’m getting in early on the BS sniffing. That press conference was ladened with BS. We’ve stomached the BS for a few years now, but gave him the benefit of the doubt. His goodwill has run out.
The only nugget of interest in that presser was that there was significant locker room problems, which leads me to believe that he couldn’t get full value for Phaneuf.
sure. fair enough.
but if goals are essentially persistence, ie shots, time in the offensive zone etc.
then from a lack of goals at home, can we safely assume that everything was down at home? Shots, pressure, everything.
IE. we sucked at home. no drive, no pressure, no enthusiasm whatever.
Look at Phoenix. An incredible 33 more goals at home than on the road. That’s nearly one full goal per game.
It is interesting.
97% renewal.
Allright, am I missing something? or is this ‘renewal’ rate a bunch of hooey.
I’m a season ticket holder, and I was strong-armed into renewing to get access to playoff tickets. Almost all of the OTHER season ticket holders I know are corporately/company owned, so renewal is immune to the success of the Flames (lack thereof).
Wouldn’t it be NEXT YEAR’s renewal rate that would be more indicative of fan opinion?
That’s what I mean though, you can decline your playoff tickets – but you only get an option to purchase them if you renew your season’s tickets – no?
Im a little different , I share my tickets on a year by year lease.
The email I got did however indirectly threaten NOT to renew my lease if I didnt pay for the first 2 rounds by last tuesday. Said something like I need to pay for the first 2 rounds now and my lease will be reviewed this summer balh blah.
Check this out. Taylor Chorney and Jason Strudwick’s get stuck on the ice in there own zone for almost four minutes
I take some comfort in the fact that the presser was 100% BS.
Whatever Foghorn Leghorn actually said, he probably doesn’t believe it. He’s just covering his rear end in case he can’t address the team’s obvious deficiencies.
I’m no Darryl supporter, but don’t expect an off-season to reflect this BS.
Agreed. “We’re not trading Jokinen” /trades Jokinen. “We’re not trading Phaneuf” /trades Phaneuf.
by SmellOfVictory on Apr 13, 2010 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
It was ridiculous.
We called this press conference to tell you that we haven’t done anything yet to figure out what went wrong this season. We must find out why we didn’t win more (home) games.
How the hell do you quantify that.
Ken King: "These rumours haven't eminated from our office"
Does anyone else think this was a poor job of dismissing the trade rumours?
It’s not like he dismissed them outright with words like “Untrue” or “Baseless”
I don’t think it matters if Sutter’s making an actual statement with “the problem is just the home record” or not. We all watched the games, and we all know the problems extended far beyond just home games. As Kent mentioned before, the PP was garbage everywhere. In addition, there was the excessive turtling engaged in, as well as a sore lack of offensive creativity and finishing ability; now, maybe that last bit was just the entire team (minus Giordano, Backlund, and White*) having a simultaneous off-year, but I have my doubts.
*I know Bourque scored a career high in goals/points, but the amount of whiffing he did this year was painful. So many missed open nets and fanned passes.
by SmellOfVictory on Apr 13, 2010 11:00 AM PDT reply actions
You know what would make this year so much worse. If the Flames end up winning the Draft Lottery (I know it’s only a 0.8 chance) I’m aware it won’t move us (Coyotes) up to 1st but a team that wins the lottery outside of the Top 5 can move up Five spots correct?
That means the Coyotes pick 9th and these players could be there’s for the taking.
Emerson Etem, RW, Medicine Hat
Derek Forbort, D, USA U-18
Ryan Johansen, C, Portland
Alexander Burmistrov, C, Barrie
Nino Niederreiter, RW, Portland
That is true but unlikely it will be a Top 20 pick.
Really after Hall and Seguin it’s like shooting fish in a barrel .
I believe the phrase you were looking for is “it’s a crapshoot”
by SmellOfVictory on Apr 13, 2010 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions
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