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The Deeper Implications of the Boyd Trade

There's been some sniping around the Boyd trade both here and elsewhere and the argument being raised has conjured memories of another spat that erupted around somewhat similar circumstances almost three years ago. I think the comparison will help explain why I and others like Robert and RO don't like the deal.

In the summer of 2007, Darryl Sutter had 7 NHL defensemen signed:

Robyn Regehr

Dion Phaneuf

David Hale

Rhett Warrener

Cory Sarich

Anders Eriksson

Adrian Aucoin

Star-divide

Sutter added Hale at the previous trade deadline, traded for Aucoin and signed Eriksson and Sarich in the off-season. That left precious little room for a sophomore defender named Mark Giordano; a guy who at 24 had put up decent stats in the AHL, but hadn't really established himself in the big leagues yet. Sutter stuffed the roster full of more established players and then low-balled Gio in his RFA negotiations. Giordano balked at the two-way offer and fled to Russia. 

The reaction in Flamesland was split. Guys like myself and Matt Fenwick saw it as an obvious misstep. A larger portion of the fanship looked at the roster, looked at Giordano and shrugged "not a big deal". A comment at Mirtle's old place captures the spirit of majority reaction at the time: Except that Giordano can't play defense and gets burned 1-on-1. Can someone say Andy Delmore??? This is not a significant loss.

I tried to make the point then that signing and acquiring NHL players in a cap environment is like making a series of bets: basically, you want each guy to be a better than average bet to perform at or above the level of his cap hit. To that end, the mistake as I saw it with the Gio negotiations then is the same mistake I see with the Boyd trade now:

Look, Giordano isn't a big-time difference maker in the overall scheme of things. He is, however, a viable asset the Flames have converted from an undrafted defenseman. He's also the type of player that is a good bet to outperform his next contract (unlike, say, Warrener or Eriksson) and you can never have enough of those guys on a capped roster.

The issue isn't necessarily how Boyd fits into the roster currently, nor whether he'd be any kind of difference maker in the short term. Look at the line-up of defenders Sutter chose over Giordano 3 years ago. Consider that of those ostensibly superior options at the time, one has retired (Warrener), one is an AHLer (Eriksson), one is a 7th defender (Hale) and one is a guy who probably has less value to the org than Giordano does currently (Sarich). Now, let's look at some of the forwards Daz decided to keep instead of Boyd this year:

Ales Kotalik

Eric Nystrom

Jamal Mayers

Chris Higgins

Craig Conroy

Brian McGrattan

Mikael Backlund

Project the line-up three years down the road, when Boyd will be about 26 years old. How many of these guys will be

a.) Better than Boyd?

b.) Still with the Flames?

c.) Still in the NHL?

Boyd's development path isn't certain, so "A" is the most contentious question. However, guys who are 23, have good results in lower leagues and are still finding their legs are the types of players organizations should be betting on, particularly when their contract demands and resultant cap hits would be around league minimum (thereby almost completely eliminating any risk). If the Flames kept Boyd and he failed to take single step forward, then his salary is at replacement level and it's not an issue. However, the potential reward if he does make strides is significant and there's an object lesson of that fact leading the Flames blueline in goals this year.

Again, the issue isn't Boyd's current utility to the club, which is admittedly small. It's the manner of asset management - of placing smart, low risk bets with potential high rewards - that I call into question here. Sutter got lucky with Giordano. We'll have to wait to see to what degree he screwed up with Boyd.

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments |

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Well, McGrattan is definitely better.

by duncan on Mar 9, 2010 1:01 PM PST reply actions  

One will be better then Boyd (Backs), Two will be with the Flames (Higgins and Backs, I hope), and the other 5 will be retired or in the AHL. Well, I guess Kotalik could hang around, but hopefully far away from here.

Go Flames Go
Goals? Where we're going, we don't need goals.

by Justin Azevedo on Mar 9, 2010 2:01 PM PST reply actions  

You had me laughing until the Backlund one, which struck my heart with the icy dagger of fear.

by SmellOfVictory on Mar 9, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

This is possibly one of the best comments in the history of this site.

What do they say at PPP? Rec that shit! I think…

by Kent Wilson on Mar 9, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

has that officially become the most rec’d post in the history of M&G ?? the mayers one topped it for me. ;)

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I think so. I now know that it takes 5 recs to turn a comment green, so thanks again, Rod.

by Robert Cleave on Mar 9, 2010 2:42 PM PST up reply actions  

there must be alot of green comments over at PPP. ;)

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Awesome.

So, I can see that McGrattan is obviously filling the role of the professor on this desert isle, but who are Ginger and Mary-Anne? More importantly, why can’t they patch the effin hole in the side of the ship and sail us into Stanley Cup harbour?

by mike_H on Mar 9, 2010 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

When I was reading it during/after the Phaneuf trade each thread had at least one or two green ones.

by SmellOfVictory on Mar 9, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

You sir, deserve a cookie.

-Colin

by Colin S on Mar 9, 2010 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

And the reasons you stated are the same reasons I dislike the Boyd trade, Kent. A young guy who isn’t quite performing up to top-6 expectations isn’t much of a liability when he’s still at such a small salary. I daresay that, even if we assume Boyd never got even a little bit better, he’s still good value for his cap hit.

by SmellOfVictory on Mar 9, 2010 2:20 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah, that was at the heart of my objection last week. If he’s never anything more than what he is today, Dustin Boyd’s presence on the roster does no real harm, financially or otherwise. There wasn’t any appreciable downside potential in keeping him until at least this summer, IMO. If Sutter advised him that he would move him to allow him a chance to play, that transaction could have been delayed until the draft.

by Robert Cleave on Mar 9, 2010 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Eric Nystrom: Flames grinder, Just for Men spokesperson with Ryan Getzlaf

This has me in tears. Brilliant.

I have a hard time reconciling the Boyd trade myself. I always pictured him as a good low end asset. Not quite the top end scorer we all hoped, but not hopeless or useless either. Sheltered minutes and the occasional soft hands made him great for occasional 2nd line duty or 2nd unit powerplay. I even miss how much he falls over.

by jessnbrown on Mar 9, 2010 2:30 PM PST reply actions  

I think it was the Higgins line that really did it for me.

by Kent Wilson on Mar 9, 2010 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

if i’m not mistaken, gio’s contract talk breakdown was BEFORE the signing of anders eriksson on july 1, though i’m not sure why i think this….. i’m not saying he’d already announced he was “outtie” for russia or if he was blindsided by the eriksson signing, and interpreted it as a big ol’ middle finger from daz….. still, i do think that the flames have a major problem in promoting their rookies (which is why i really like the current backlund situation) and ALWAYS sign a vet to take that spot, even though it’s pretty effin’ clear that the current climate of winners is quite the opposite.

fyi: i would still like to say that july 1, 2007 was both the day gio became awesome, and the day dion’s progress halted.

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 2:45 PM PST reply actions  

Gio wasn’t leaving until the Flames signed Eriksson and then offered him a two-way, and that stuff happened after he got his QO in late June. Adam Pardy was in about the same spot this summer, and he got a one-way, so Sutter likely learned from that scenario.

Gio may well have become awesome ;-) at some point, but Dion was still clearly moving forward in 07/08. Second pairing comp and all that stuff should have made people really think about that Norris nomination, but he had a very good season for a 22 year old even with those qualifiers.

by Robert Cleave on Mar 9, 2010 3:10 PM PST up reply actions  

but he learned how to play hockey the anders eriksson way.

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 3:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Anders good player. Go Anders!

Go Flames Go
Goals? Where we're going, we don't need goals.

by Justin Azevedo on Mar 9, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

How do we know that Giordano’s Russian sabatical didn’t help make him the player he is today? We don’t. He wouldn’t be the first player to play a year or two in Europe only to return to the NHL as a better player. The lockout year would be a pretty good example of this as well.. Just sayin’.

by RossCreek on Mar 9, 2010 3:44 PM PST reply actions  

Big stretch RC. You’re saying that a year in Russia was transformative, whereas a second year of playing in the NHL may have derailed his development.

Highly dubious.

by Kent Wilson on Mar 9, 2010 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

How is that a big stretch. Sure, it may not be accurate, but I wouldn’t call it a stretch. Look what Horcoff did in that lockout year and the year prior to & the year after (I haven’t done so, so it may not prove anything, lol). A year as a top minute d-man in Russia (again, I don’t know this to be true) vs. a year as a 6th d-man instead of one of the above mentioned clowns (Hale/Eriksson)? I’d say that has the potential to help out one’s development, yes.

by RossCreek on Mar 9, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Chuck Kobasew tore up the AHL during the lock-out. It did nothing for his development, frankly.

It’s possible Gio going over a playing in the top 2 pairings helped him. It’s also possible it hurt him to play in a lesser league with a different style of play (I remember him over committing all over the ice his first 20 games back in North America).

My view is Gio was remarkably well developed before he made the leap either way. His first season in the NHL, he put up remarkably slid numbers and he was arguably better than Hale and Warrener already. If it helped or hurt, Im guessing the difference was negligible.

by Kent Wilson on Mar 9, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

the overcommitting is exactly what i mentioned below when i suggested he was making “big ice” decisions. you could see that the tools were there and then some, though…. i don’t recall if they were there before he left or not.

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 8:08 PM PST up reply actions  

i actually think it’s possible that russia did improve his game. when he returned, you could tell that he was far more confident and, although he was making decisions for big-ice play (ie: bad decisions), you could totally see that he was thinking smarter. if i’m not mistaken, he was a top pairing guy and that might seriously have kickstarted his development where playing a 6th man role with the flames would have gotten him to about where pardy is right now.

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions  

so uh what ross creek said. except i remember noticing his improvement. i’ll look for a link where i said it.

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 4:05 PM PST up reply actions  

um. where was everybody on that play ?

by walkinvisible on Mar 9, 2010 4:15 PM PST reply actions  

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