An Attempt at Evaluating Jay Bouwmeester
by Hayley on Mar 24, 2010 3:06 PM PDT
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PrintMuch has been made of Jay Bouwmeester's offensive failings recently--so much so that he's been called a 'bust' in some parts and the local MSM is calling for him to step it up. For the most part, people don't consider the fact that he faces tough minutes against some of the opposition's best on most nights, and his teammates haven't always done a great job of driving possession and outshooting the opposition, as pointed out by Robert in his two-post series earlier this season ( here and here).
In the off-season, RO did a great deal of analysis of Bouwmeester's stats, essentially proving that on a bad Florida team, Bouwmeester faced off against the toughest competition, had the toughest zone starts of any defenceman, still managed to put up good numbers (15G, 24A, 42P) and ranked third out of all Florida defencemen in terms of AdjCorsi/60 during 5v5 play. More after the jump...
When Bouwmeester signed with the Flames in the summer, it was generally believed that improved circumstances--better quality of teammates, fewer defensive zone starts, etc.--would improve his numbers even further and allow him to garner the recognition for being one of the league's premier shutdown defencemen that he never received in Florida.
Basic stats will show you that Bouw has two goals and twenty-four assists for a grand total of twenty-six points in seventy-three games, and without considering the circumstances, it would be easy to assume that he's underachieving, as is the majority of Calgary's roster this season. Two of those assists came in last night's game, when Jay led the team in ice time but didn't see the Ducks' top line as much as the pairing of Regehr and White and was actually on the ice for more neutral and offensive zone draws than defensive. I thought I'd try to do something of a follow-up analysis since the season is almost over (possible playoffs nonwithstanding) by comparing these numbers to his last season in Florida. I'm new to most of these advanced stats, so please bear with me.
Looking at Bouwmeester's QualComp rating in 08/09 with the Panthers, he had the highest rating at 0.07 , which means he faced the toughest competition. I haven't been tracking Bouwmeester's stats all season nor those of other Flames defencemen, but from what I've gathered through 71 games he is fourth in QualComp rating on the Flames at -0.009. I'm not sure how much stock to put into that since Steve Staios is ahead of him at -0.004 but has only played 48 games. Regehr and White are first and second in QualComp ratings, which I assume means that they routinely face tougher minutes against the opposition's best despite averaging less ice time than Bouwmeester.
I'm not sure whether or not this includes White's time in Toronto as I couldn't figure out how to compare a player's numbers with two different teams in one season. Up next is the QualTeam metric or Quality of Teammates, which I understand is not extremely reliable and I'm not really sure how to interpret it, but for what it's worth, Bouwmeester was ranked at the top of the chart with a 0.12 in Florida and clocks in at 0.031 with the Flames, third behind Adam Pardy and Robyn Regehr.
When it comes to Zone Starts, Bouwmeester was one the ice for 161 more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive zone faceoffs, the most of any Florida player, last season. This season, he has been on the ice 195 times for a win in a defensive zone draw and 222 times for a loss, as opposed to 168 times for an offensive zone win and 197 after an offensive zone loss. He has been on the ice the most of any Flames defenceman for a neutral zone loss at 240 times. What I gather from this is that he was deployed in situations that could potentially lead to a scoring chance or a goal by the opposition and not in situations that could potentially lead to a scoring chance or a goal for the Flames, at least at 5v5. He has been on the ice for the lowest percentage of offensive draws at 46.7%. Ian White has the most offensive zone starts and the most neutral zone starts of all Flames defencemen.
Looking at Corsi is where I get sort of confused. Bouwmeester is ranked fourth of all Flames D in terms of Corsi relative to Quality of Competition. Again, Staios is ranked ahead of him which is likely inaccurate when Adjusted Corsi is calculated, but I'm not quite at that level of understanding yet. He is second in terms of Corsi relative to Quality of Teammates, behind only Robyn Regehr, and is second last in overall Corsi rating behind Steve Staios, which probably makes more sense given the quality of competition he faces, the amount of defensive zone starts he gets, and the fact that they have been paired together since Staios' arrival in Calgary. He was in similar circumstances in Florida last season with his D partner Karlis Skrastins. Regehr and White are ranked ahead of Bouwmeester in Corsi and they probably get similar if not tougher minutes, although Bo's are likely more spread out.
In a further comparison between Bouwmeester's numbers from last season and this one, it would appear that his circumstances are very similar. Last season with Florida, he was on the ice for 2.36 goals/60 and 2.44 goals against. This season, both have been reduced. Bo has seen an average of 2.08 goals for/60 and 2.22 goals against/60 at 5v5. The Flames have scored 45 goals with him on the ice and allowed 48 at 5v5, which would put him at -3 at even stength. In both seasons, goals for/60 and goals against/60 increased and decreased, respectively, when Bouwmeester wasn't on the ice at 5v5. This is probably more a function of his circumstances than a testament to his skills as a player. Counting his numbers on the powerplay and on the penalty kill would likely alter these results, but I can't imagine it would be to too great an extent given the Flames' powerplay percentages and penalty killing efficiency.
So what does all this mean? While Bouwmeester's offensive numbers are largely underwhelming, expectations for him to increase his offensive output while facing some of the highest quality opposition, arguably higher on average than what he faced with Florida, over the course of the season were and are somewhat unreasonable. At 26 years old, Bouwmeester still has plenty of upside and potential to improve, and his best years as a defenceman are still ahead. Could he benefit from playing a little more physical, from taking a few more chances offensively? Maybe, but there's no way of proving that.
I certainly would have liked to retain Cammalleri and agree that the Flames have probably overcommitted to defence salary-cap wise (some of which was temporarily alleviated by trading Phaneuf) but I don't know if I agree with the assertion that the dollars put towards Bouwmeester's contract would have been better spent elsewhere and that a cheaper replacement UFA defenceman could have filled the void. There's no guarantee that the team wouldn't be in the same position with Cammalleri and Jokinen or another forward and without Bouwmeester. Some things have gone right for the Flames this season--like Kipper's improved play, the play of Giordano and Bourque--but others have gone the other way--Jokinen's play, Iginla's inconsistency, some coaching/management decisions--and there's no way to estimate whether or not those things would have changed if the makeup of this team was different.
In relation to his salary, other players of his ilk, and expectations coming in, saying Bouwmeester has underachieved is not an outrageous statement, but taken in context with the circumstances he is used in every game and combined with the fact that the majority of the team, save a few players, have churned out uninspiring performances for much of the season, it is not necessarily an accurate one.
For an alternative take on the issue, visit the guys at Dome Beers.
What are everybody else's thoughts?
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I like Bouwmeester a lot. Skills-wise he has great speed, is hard on the puck, good stuck, soft D to D passes and his side-of-net puck clears to the boards aren’t chaotic like Gio’s or Regehr’s have this season.
He hasn’t joined the rush very often, and he should. But Sutter’s a button-down coach, to the point where at times he has taken the F2’s decision to take the zone or back off during a forecheck out of said F2’s hands. So I doubt he is tolerant of roving from his defensemen.
His goal scoring hasn’t been there this year but that’s driven largely by his SH%, and part of that is driven by the fact that the Flames haven’t been drawing a lot of penalties. And of course the forwards in front of him (read: Jokinen) have been at times quite awful.
I think his perceived performance will turn around. He was on the good side of the EV scoring chances for a while and that drives outscoring like nothing else. And with the better forward lineup, that can only continue. He’ll still be the same great defenseman that DomeBeers and others are too fantasy-pool-blinded to see, but Luck and context will favor him going forward.
He hasn’t joined the rush very often, and he should.
He also spent 50-ish games playing with Giordano. They couldn’t both take off, so Gio normally went, and as he was the less-skilled defensive player of the pair, correctly so. If Bouwmeester had played with a more traditional top-four stay at home type, he might well have taken a few more risks, regardless of who was coaching.
I think the thing that routinely gets overlooked about JB is the fact that Sutter has tried to use him as his “1A” defender. The Flames have used Regehr, irrespective of partner, against the other team’s best most nights, but if there were any stray minutes to be had against the best of the opposition, Bouwmeester was sent to clean that up, as well as being the first choice on the PK, replacing either Phaneuf or White as Regehr’s partner almost without fail. The PK stuff almost never gets talked about, but those are 4 very difficult minutes a night that he averages, and his +/- per 60 on the PK is very good relative to his high-minute peers around the league. Kipper’s PK SV% is decent, but nothing special, so JB’s likely played a significant role in helping the team when down a man.
I’d like more offence as much as anyone else, but the whole team has seemed a bit passive at times, and his reduced shot totals from his Florida days have fit that mold. It should also be noted that the guy’s shooting 1.7%. If anyone wants to place a small wager on that happening to him again during the life of his contract, feel free.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 24, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not so sure about his PK ability based on the relatively limited icetime that anyone gets in a single season. The +/- number looks nice but he and Regehr are also bleeding shots against relative to the other defenders on the team. Vic’s early indication was that shots (not corsi) are the drivers of scoring chances on the PK. Which is a bit strange but then again, Corsi is a proxy for territorial advantage which is a notion you don’t have on the PK.
And of course all these numbers are buggered by icetime totals which would be equivalent to about 20 games if it was EV icetime.
The part about Gio taking off instead of Bouwmeester, I can see that driving the lack of rushing for sure.
The team’s SA on the PK is down about 4/60 minutes from last year, R O, and JB is out there for about 2/3 of the team’s PK minutes. I’m not convinced that everything is an accident, and shot prevention is one place where a D can have a major effect. If Regehr and JB are bleeding SA compared to the other D on the PK, the fact they play the other team’s best pretty much answers that, no?
by Robert Cleave on Mar 24, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
No that’s fair, if I recall when Vic looked at it, the D do prevent shots more than the F. Or more correctly, the gap between the best and worst D in shot prevention is greater than the gap between the best and worst F.
Of course that’s flipped for shot generation, and the gap is wider for forwards, so forwards overall drive possession more.
In any case, that makes hockey-truth-like sense, that the D can impact the PK a ton, when going by shots against. And it’s highly possible that quality of competition is playing into this, surely the first-unit PPs are better than the second-unit PPs. Although I’m not sure yet that the gap in PP ability is as wide as EV ability, there’s a bit of selection bias of course since PP players are generally the team’s best anyway. But I suspect the ability curve is flatter on the PP that at 5on5.
Still, you’ve convinced me, I didn’t reference to last year’s PK shots against. The fact that a single D can impact team shots against on the PK, that’s game-winning stuff. Especially because Kipper’s PKSV% was bound to come down from last year.
I think the thing that routinely gets overlooked about JB is the fact that Sutter has tried to use him as his "1A" defender. The Flames have used Regehr, irrespective of partner, against the other team’s best most nights, but if there were any stray minutes to be had against the best of the opposition, Bouwmeester was sent to clean that up
Yeah this has been happening since about game 20, I think? And it’s a weird thing because you’d think you’d see Bouwmeester pinch more during , and there have been opportunities. It doesn’t happen very often. The nice thing is that the D are always back, very few ten-bell transition chances against, but I’ve also noticed the D are obsessed with maintaining equal separation between the attacker and the goalie, to the point where they won’t stand up the forward at the blue even when that’s the obvious play (e.g. only one forward incoming).
Sutter is ultraconservative, I’m not sure why he doesn’t trust his players but he doesn’t trust his players.
You play like a guy who is trying to not get yelled at by the coach, not a player who wants to help his teammates win hockey games. Seriously, J Blow, I have never seen anyone with your skating ability play the game of hockey so safe. You can skate you fucking jackass, take some risks. Enter the zone, press in from the point, do what Boyle used to and Doughty does now. Honestly, this is what pisses me off the most about you, J Blow. You have the talent to play in the offensive zone like a Niedermayer or a Boyle or a Doughty or a Campbell, and those players are little skin and bone midgets compared to you. You could be one of the baddest men on an ice rink, and you choose not to be. I don’t fucking get it.
I think that’s the part of domebeers’ assessment that I can really get behind. JBo does look like he should be able to basically own the ice, and he just chooses not to. To some extent one might choose to blame coaching, but my counter to that is: look at Gio. He plays much more aggressively than Bouwmeester does, on a regular basis.
except i wonder how much of that is “the system” or “the atmosphere.” cause, let’s face it, there are a lot of players underperforming.
by walkinvisible on Mar 24, 2010 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m content to blame ‘the atmosphere’, as I blame it for Iggy underperforming as well. Wishy-washy? Sure. Completely unverifiable? Absolutely. But I still think it’s a central issue with this team.
by SmellOfVictory on Mar 24, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I would rather have JBO over Cammalleri. Think about it: Reggie-Dion the entire season? Pardy-Whomever? Gio-Sarich? It just does not work out.
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I don’t know. Right now Gio is getting easier minutes on most nights, so he can afford to be aggressive. Since he’s so good a getting back if he does get caught out of position, it’s not usually an issue. With Bouwmeester, making a mistake like overcommitting on hit or trying to play the body instead of the puck could prove costly against an opponent like Datsyuk or Getzlaf, etc. And if he were to take a penalty on the play, which seems to occur a lot when he makes physical contact with almost anyone because of his size, that could also prove costly.
This is a consideration to make, but I don’t think it’s the sole consideration. I also have no issue with JBo not taking the body; I don’t care how someone separates opposing players from the puck, as long as they do it effectively. He certainly does that, and I see no reason to shit on him just because he primarily uses positioning and stickwork as opposed to bodychecks.
by SmellOfVictory on Mar 24, 2010 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I see there’s a bit in DomeBeers piece there on Bouwmeester being soft. That is about the furthest thing from the truth, Bouwmeester is extremely hard on the puck. He doesn’t take the body much but the puck is off the stick of opposing forwards more often when Bouwmeester is defending than anyone else on the team.
What is happening on the ice, is kinda important when we talk about how players are performing on the ice. “Atmosphere” is an easy cop-out.
Physical play is tiring. It takes way more energy to hit someone then it does to poke a puck off a player’s stick. This probably isn’t the only reason he’s able to play as much as he did, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was part of it.
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by Justin Azevedo on Mar 24, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
What I personally mean by atmosphere (can’t speak for WI) is the general ‘team atmosphere’, sort of analogous to ‘lockerroom’ stuff. I’m sure you’ve heard tales of the Flames being the quietest team in the NHL, etc etc. At this point I’m choosing to believe that Darryl Sutter is significantly responsible for this team atmosphere, and that it is interfering with the productivity of Flames players.
I’m not saying it should be a replacement for looking at what’s happening on the ice so much as it works as an explanation for some of what happens on the ice.
by SmellOfVictory on Mar 24, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t buy that SOV. For one, the Flames are a decent team at even strength when the score is close. Their problems are well-defined.
Firstly, Iginla in decline. This was the same as last year and this “team atmosphere” stuff doesn’t fly. If it was there last year, it was there the year before and Iggy was dominant.
Secondly, poor lineups. Langkow beside Iginla works both in theory and in practice, we’ve seen that this season and in seasons past, and that’s because both are pretty nice players.
Thirdly, a rather conservative strategy when the score isn’t close. I hesitate to say this is a big factor because it has probably only cost us a couple of goals but it’s there.
Fourthly, Lady Luck shitting on our shooters. What can you do?
Whatever real estate is left over for locker-room cancers and extramarital affairs and lack of leadership, well, not even Tom Thumb would find it livable.
Re your first point: one may argue that it’s just my judgement being clouded by fanlove for Iggy, but I like to think of it as Sutter slowly sucking the life out of his passion. But if it’s not the atmosphere thing, I still have my doubts that Iginla is just ‘in decline’; he may be playing like it, but I don’t think he’s old enough to warrant such a conclusion. Regardless of what the fundamental reason behind it is, I maintain that his drop-off in level of play is mental rather than physical.
I agree with your other points for the most part, although I wouldn’t say the sh% is purely ‘lady luck’ and her fecal ways. The stats say that, but watching the games says to me that they need, to quote a great man, AIM MORE BETTER; or to be less simplistic, the players themselves look to be at fault (types of shots they’re taking, not driving the net, etc. etc.)
by SmellOfVictory on Mar 24, 2010 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Stickwork is soft by definition, its finesse.
Hits send a message. You get hit by 6’4 212 and seperated from the puck it leaves a little more of an impact than getting finessed off the puck via stickwork, in my opinion.
by Domebeers.com on Mar 25, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Stickwork can get the job done, and win the Norris
I ilike physical play too, but I don’t agree that hits are the only way to send a message. Niklas Lidstrom makes a living out of great stickwork, perfect breakout passes and smart offensive play. Lidstrom just sends a different kind of message. Bouwmeester woul do well to model his game after Lidstrom.
Some players are bruising hitters and some are better technically. I’m fine with JBo not being a big hitter, provided that he continues to improve in other areas. I don’t see defense as his big crutch, it’s not using his considerable skating talent for offense. If he continues to get paired with Staios though, he has no choice but to cover for him defensively.
Ryan
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Kinda unrelated but...
I’m gonna go ahead and post it anyways.
http://communities.canada.com/CALGARYHERALD/blogs/insideflames/archive/2010/03/24/phaneuf-to-wear-c-in-toronto.aspx
These were my favourite parts:
This gift for the gab — not the fact that Phaneuf has no goals, five assists and is a minus-1 in 16 games with the Leafs — is pretty much why he would make a great captain
“He’s very demanding of his teammates to practice hard, too. So they all kind of fall in line.”
…It’s a lot more intense out there because he does everything hard.
He appears to be willing to go to war for any of his teammates on any given shift.
You guys sure spend alot of time talking about such a useless player.
Go BRUINS!!!
by Brad Ackerson on Mar 25, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
But he is useless now and he isn’t a Flame anymore…so why are people still talking about him?
Go BRUINS!!!
by Brad Ackerson on Mar 25, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I watched JayBo particularly closely last night, because I just knew everyone with a blog would write about him today, and I wanted to be ready!
Seriously, I did watch and noticed that, at least last night, he has to expend a lot of energy covering for his partner. For example, there was a play where he was the D-man standing up a rush at the blue and Staios was back, roughly in the slot. The puck got dumped in and Jay-Bo turned, looking like he was going to cover the front of the net while Staios went to the corner. Instead, Staios, probably knowing he was too slow to turn and effectively play the puck, drifted to the front of the net and JayBo hit the gas, got to the corner, played the puck effectively, took a hit, all while Staios was doing the easy work. Similar type plays, where he was taking a lot of responsibility in his own zone, happend numerous more times.
I think he makes a few mistakes in his zone, but no more than any other top-notch D-man. He just plays a ton and his very responsible, and it’s easy to notice when those type of guys make mistakes. I wish he’d rush more, because when he does it he looks like he’s a natural at it. However, I do think the lack of it is coaching to a great degree, and only some of it is a lack of agressiveness. I still think he was better than at least three guys on the Canadian Olympic team and think he’s full value for the contract.
Yeah this’s an awesome point. How often does Bouwmeester spend his time battling along the boards and doing the hard defensive work? I know that whenever he looks like a boob on a goal against (which isn’t often but I do remember a few instances) it’s often a lost puck battle along the boards.
Which will happen, as you say all top D will eventually look foolish from time to time, the forwards in this league are just so good.
And I think it’s no coincidence that Gio has looked good this year, having played a ton beside Bouwmeester, and for the exact reasons you mention. I paid attention to Gio when he was playing with Pardy and they were both liabilities, they got beat along the boards again and again.
By the way, who’s your list of three from the Olys? Personally I think Bouwmeester was a sure-fire better choice than Doughty, who got taken wide a ton and caught foolishly pinching a couple times.
R O, the numbers don’t support your contention about Gio being a drag on JB one little bit. I just ran the “close” setting on Vic’s site:
4 and 5: 147 SF, 127 SA, 73 MSF, 62 MSA, 84 BS(F), 86 BS (A), Corsi % . 525
4 sans 5: 230 SF, 260 SA, 109 MSF, 106 MSA, 105 BS (F), 112 BS (A), Corsi % .482
The “tied” setting just gives individual totals and a grouped “99” number, but their paired Corsi% when tied is .509, and JB’s overall number in that scenario is .489
Gio’s numbers without JB in both cases are better, of course, because his QComp in those situations is lower. Unless you want to make a “seen him bad” argument, though, or you’re proposing that JB’s QComp magically went through the roof when he wasn’t out there with Giordano, I’m not buying this argument at all. The math says it just isn’t so.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 24, 2010 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I approach this from two ways.
1.) Saw him: basically I look at how the season shook out. For the first 20 games it was (if my hazy memory is correct) Bouwmeester and Sarich playing tough minutes with the forwards in front of them playing like shit. Gio was in there somewhere maybe, I don’t remember how long though. Bouwmeester looked good but spent a lot of time in his own end, damn forwards.
Then Gio and Bouwmeester took an extended and exclusive stint together and they only played cleanup duty. Just from the shift charts, Regehr was edumacating Phaneuf in tough min and Gio/Bouwmeester got the benefit of less-tough minutes, their numbers would reflect that.
And recently it’s been Bouwmeester/Staois, with Gio and Sarich beating on the weaklings.
There was a stretch in there too where Gio and Pardy took a regular shift, they got beat up on some occasions IIRC.
Does this all mesh? Lemme know if it doesn’t.
We’ve watched them for a pretty good stretch, can’t remember everything of course, but I remember being not all that impressed with Giordano. Every tough minute he played was beside Bouwmeester and every non-Bouwmeester minute he’s played has been soft. That sets off all kind of alarm bells for me, and watching him lose battles reinforces it. Obviously defencemen will lose battles, it’s part of the job. But the lesser defensemen should really look better at it, they usually face weaker opposition after all.
2.) The math: a shift from 0.482 to 0.525 in any EV event is just huge, no way Gio is the root cause of that. I wholly believe that Bouwmeester’s ice-time did in fact get significantly tougher when Gio was not with him, the eye and common sense support that.
Consider this. If Giordano really did impact EV events for Bouwmeester to the tune of 0.482 to 0.525. On average you have about 22 EV shots per game per side, or 44 total. That’s 3608 total EV shots per 82 games, and using a shots-on-net-per-attempt ratio of 0.54 (which you’ve used as a line in the sand before I recall) I get 6681 shot attempts (corsi) per season, total for both sides.
The same logic with goals (using 3.6 total EV goals per game as a line in the sand), you get a total of 295 total EV goals per season (that’s both you and your opponent mind).
There are three EV units and usually the top one will be more high event but let’s just say for the moment that Bouwmeester sees exactly 1/3 of all EV events, that’ll give a conservative estimate here.
Applying the percentages above, Giordano moving onto Bouwmeester’s pairing influences results to the tune of +8 goals and +192 shot attempts.
Damn. Gio worth 1.33 wins and moving shot attempts north 192 times more, that doesn’t pass the sniff test for me. Especially when the really good teams are only in the +500 to +800 range for shot attempts and 1.33 wins comes with a $3M price. At that rate we could pay him and ditch everyone on the roster but Gio and Bouwmeester and the duo would provide us with enough wins from the back-end that we’d probably be better off with the saved money. Gio’s good but, well, he’s not that good.
Generally speaking I look at those percentages and if they move more than a few % either way then it no longer meshes with reality. I’ll think of it as the Burrows effect, after this recent attempt by a admittedly level and keen-eyed Canucks fan to try and convince me that Alex F. Burrows moves territorial advantage for the Sedins to the tune of 5% (52 to 57% shift). Nah, that’s not happening.
I think role more than anything explains what happens when Gio and Bouwmeester are split.
For the first 20 games it was (if my hazy memory is correct) Bouwmeester and Sarich playing tough minutes with the forwards in front of them playing like shit. Gio was in there somewhere maybe, I don’t remember how long though. Bouwmeester looked good but spent a lot of time in his own end, damn forwards.
Not even close. Sarich was mostly hurt at the start of the year, so he’s played exactly ZERO tough minutes this season. Gio and JB had the tough minutes through the first 8-10 games, then Reggie-Dion.
There is no statistical evidence that Bouwmeester’s icetime got tougher after he and Gio were split, R O. None. I went through the game sheets since the Phaneuf trade, and JB played against with Sarich and with Staios against the same second level comp that he did with Gio. White and Reggie have had the hard matches without fail, and Bouwmeester has played clean-up in exactly the same fashion as he did with Giordano. There has been no, repeat, no, material change in his match-ups.
Scoring chances since the two were split are +76/-57 for Gio, which is about right for his ability versus the bottom end. Giordano was + 42 in scoring chances for the season before the Phaneuf trade, BTW. He and JB were absolutely superb by that measure from game 40 to the Phaneuf trade in spite of the team’s terrible record, but I’m sure the team was shooting 5% or so during that stretch, so the W-L’s took a kicking.
Bouwmeester was +34 in terms of scoring chances before the Phaneuf trade. Since then, with Sarich and Staios as his partners, he is +68/-98, or -30. Hmmm.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 25, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Also, Bob? This sounds like great post material for the off-season.
by Kent Wilson on Mar 25, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
There will be a pile of stuff for this season’s post-mortem, Kent. There aren’t many, or maybe any, decent teams in the post-lockout era that have tried what the Flames have attempted. Turning over that much of the roster during the year under the cap is not normal, full stop. Whether they make the play-offs or not, picking through all of this will be damned interesting, no doubt about it.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 25, 2010 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
haha, I agree. In fact, I’m having considerable problems focusing on current matters because my thoughts are crowded by all the post-mortems I’m planning.
by Kent Wilson on Mar 25, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I remember reading that Fletcher did this with the Flames in ’78 or ’79, back in Atlanta. Turned over half the roster near the deadline, wound up getting bounced in four by the Rangers.
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Sarich was mostly hurt at the start of the year, so he’s played exactly ZERO tough minutes this season
Ah that’s right, my bad. He broke his foot in preseason.
Still, would you not agree, that’s strange that Gio could influence resluts to the tune of 4%+ at EV? That’s a pretty huge shift to my mind.
I think you’ll have to admit at some point RO that Gio is pretty damn good player and not simply an artifact of his circumstances.
That is a huge shift, though, and it’s hard to assume it’s all one player. Maybe there was a alteration in starting positions somewhere in there. Still, I think we can say that Gio was probably driving some of the change, yes?
by Kent Wilson on Mar 25, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Gio is driving some of it but I’m skeptical as to how much.
I think Gio has some fine skills but I’m skeptical of him in the same way I’m skeptical of Alex Burrows. Both are playing in pretty nice situations, they have nice numbers now but no real history per se and their fanbases are overhyping them imo.
I mean we see this sort of thing all the time, guys with inflated numbers influenced largely by factors out of the player’s control. Sometimes it’s just so damn obvious (e.g. Ian White) and sometimes not so obvious.
SIDE NOTE: This got me thinking of the Glencross/Conroy/Moss trio, did we overhype them? Probably a bit but not that much because on the whole their shifts weren’t that comfortable last season. But Conroy there was definitely a big driver of results though. Moss has stepped into the elevator this season and there are considerations such as injury but we might have to start thinking he’s not as good as we thought. Glencross has had nice results this season but none of them in as tough circumstances as last season.
I’ve wondered that myself and I don’t think so. Their zone starts were middling last year. Sure, they played against other 3rd liners mostly, but they still absolutely beat their brains in.
by Kent Wilson on Mar 25, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, my contention though is that Conroy might have been the man there. He’s still getting tough defensive shifts this year but still (from what I remember from your summaries) way on top of his chances and Corsi marks him as decent territorially as well.
It’s unfortunate that quality of team is so hard to filter out (since changing linemates is often accompanied with changing role) but it’s a huge effect imo (hence all the complaining I do about Langkow not being on Jarome’s line).
Could be. Boyd/Conroy/Glencross were positively bitch slapping people earlier this year from the same position.
It may just be a gestalt thing: all three players being quality, playing against lesser bad guys one team that generally moved the puck forward.
BTW – Moss does have a good track record in terms of possession. Matt had him pegged as player before his “break out” last season.
by Kent Wilson on Mar 25, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
That’s my take on things as well, Kent. Is the shift in numbers odd? Yes? Is it all Gio? A big chunk, but certainly not all of it. Luck does have its place in all of this. Is he a markedly better option than Sarich or Staios? That’s not even a question worth asking, is it?
My whole point in this little exercise isn’t to make Mark Giordano more than what he is, which is that he’s a very nice second pairing D, and was/is a better partner for Bouwmeester than the other two gents JB has had to lug around. Mark Giordano absolutely benefited from his time with JB, but the evidence suggests that the relationship was more symbiotic than parasitic.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 25, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I’d agree that Gio is better than Staios, but from what I’ve read Staios has been declining in EDM. I like the player’s history just fine but have to admit that he’s probably not all that good now.
And Sarich stepped into the elevator shaft this season but he has a fantastic and recent history of playing tough minutes (at times with terrible partners, in TBL) so he gets leeway from me too.
Giordano doesn’t a history, and while it’s fair to say that nobody has a history til they get a chance… well at age 26 most Dmen worth a damn have gotten a chance.
Yeah, but it happens. Rafalski didn’t even play in the NHL until he was 26 years old.
Most guys like that are busts. But sometimes you uncover a genuinely useful player.
by Kent Wilson on Mar 25, 2010 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
The reason he didn’t have a history had a hell of a lot to do with D. Sutter under-valuing him, R O.
Sarich hasn’t had a decent year against tough comp since he left Tampa. He struggled in 07/08 with Regehr against the toughs, got busted down to the third paring last year very early on, and this year is what it is. He’s close to done as a regular top-four guy, IMO. He just can’t move well enough any more. It happens.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 25, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
for what it’s worth, gio’s AHL coach in lowell told me (back in february) that anyone with eyes could see that #5 had the basic skillset that would make him an nhl defenseman, that he was always one of the team’s best skaters, and was really really fuckin’ smart… so, yeah. i would presume daz undervalued him.
by walkinvisible on Mar 25, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
When they were picked, I would have taken JayBo over Doughty, Seabrook and Boyle. Doughty played better at the Games than I thought he would – I like him a lot, but he’s stlil young. But during the Games, I thought Bouwmeester would still be better to have there than Seabrook, Boyle and Pronger.
I agree almost completely with this. I originally though Doughty or Niedermayer should have been left off for JB but he turned out to be a very solid choice as he was one of the better ones out there. I think that Nieds or Seabrook could have been subbed for JB.
Of course we won the gold so it looks like Stevie Y knew something ;)
Can’t buy a damn break. Colorado gets a gift of quad PPs in the first and ends up winning in the shootout, cheating bastards. And DET gets terribly outplayed by STL for a good stretch but only gives up a goal, then gets two quick ones in the second and it’s over.
Fuck me, Lady Luck’s a bitch.
It’s just brutal. Even though the Flames are 7-3 in the past 10, somehow they have lost ground.
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by Justin Azevedo on Mar 25, 2010 6:54 AM PDT up reply actions
The Flames can actually go 10-0 for their last 10, end up with 101 points, and STILL not make the playoffs. That’s depressing considering we’re only 4 points back from 8th and 7 points back from 5th…
Minor reminder: Bouwmeester isn’t in the Southeast anymore. That’s going to affect his scoring numbers significantly.
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I don’t think leaving the SE suddenly makes you shoot 1.7%, Doogie. It almost certainly has suppressed his shot totals, though, no question.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 25, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
It has, but I’d almost put that to this team and it’s lack of shooting (and PP’s) as much or more on the “leaving the SE” effect. SH levels are down across the board on this club.
by Kent Wilson on Mar 25, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Correct. The team is down about 4 SOG per game from last year, and JB has taken some collateral damage in all of that.
by Robert Cleave on Mar 25, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
i’ve got no stats to support it but from where i’m standing, it doesn’t matter what division you come from —if you end up on the flames, your stats head south. here i’m referring to pretty much everyone short of mayers and toskala.
by walkinvisible on Mar 25, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Heh, well, no it obviously wouldn’t do that. Just felt that it was worth reposting that article by Willis, since the Southeast Division Effect wasn’t mentioned in the main post, and is a relevant point of analysis.
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I have my doubts regarding this argument. Yes, teams in the SE are generally terrible, but it’s more defensively than offensively; JBo still had to defend against Kovalchuk, Staal, St Louis/Lecav, etc. And while he was playing against the bottom teams in the league, he was also on one of the bottom teams of the league, which has to have at least some balancing effect.
by SmellOfVictory on Mar 25, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m of two minds regarding this SE division stuff.
Firstly, the SE is without doubt the weakest division but one would have to think that the QualComp and ZoneStart numbers highly suggest that Bouwmeester overwhlemingly saw tough compeititon and tough minutes. I haven’t and won’t go through the shift charts to confirm but that’s the profile. So he saw a lot of Ovechkin, Staal, probably Richards and Hossa while they were Bolts and Thrashers respectively. Four terrific players there.
On the other hand Bouwmeester plays so much icetime that he must have ended up generating some of his offense against bottom-feeders, especially when his team’s behind (which, to be unkind, was often). And Willis’ SEdiv/non-SEdiv numbers are compelling, although the shift seems a bit too high? I dunno.
In any case, we knew coming in that Bouwmeester’s primary strength was playing incredibly tough minutes. One could easily make the argument that for $6.7M he needs to bring an offensive game, but one could also easily make the argument that some of his numerical struggles have been out of his hands (especially that SH%, damn).
Let’s just say this, Bouwmeester owns some of the decline in his offensive output, but it’s far less than the FAN or Puck Daddy will make it out to be.
The SE division stuff is a very valid point but we need to keep sight of the fact that the SE div still has a lot of good players and you can pick up overrated-by-the-numbers players from every team.
I actually thought about mentioning the fact that he played in one of weakest divisions before coming here, but after looking at at stuff like the competition he faced and how many times he started in his own zone, etc. decided against it because I didn’t know how relevant it would prove to be.
i feel the pressure has gotten to him with trying to play in a canadain city plus down in florida he didnt have the pressure he does now. plus he is trying to live up to that contract that he got
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