Kotalik Trade Reactions
by Kent Wilson on Feb 3, 2010 9:06 AM PST
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We've been over it a ton 'round these parts, so here's some of the Jokinen/Kotalik reactions from others:
- Blueshirt Banter is glad Kotalik is gone, but is somewhat annoyed Sather made a move for "now" rather than the future.
- Jonathan Willis thinks Jokinen is better than what he showed in Calgary.
- Copper and Blue's Scott Reynolds analysis is pretty much in line with my own:
So how can Kotalik be effective? Well, he needs to contribute on a "scoring" third line. This means a healthy dose of offensive zone draws against the non-elite players (though not necessarily the dregs) on the other team. This is exactly how Kotalik was used in 2007-08 with the Sabres, one of his most successful seasons statistically.
That sounds rosy, but he comes to roughly the same conclusion as I did below - the deal doesn't seem to improve the Flames.
- FAN960's Pat Steinberg (now writing for Flamesnation.ca) finds it hard to believe this will be Sutter's final move.
- Puck Daddy compares the swap to the shuffling of garbage and still thinks the Flames came out on the short end. Then he gets a (virtual) tongue lashing from Jokinen's wife.
- Timo Seppa of Puck Prospectus likes the move for the Rangers, not so much for Calgary.
Feel free to add any others in the comments.
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I got it when the trade happened and this only furthers why initial gut feeling about the trade. Flames come out on the short end of the deal…mostly because of the 1st rounder being gone…and Kotalik stays. I like Steinberg being optimistic, but Daz wants these two players obviously.
"Where do you go from here, Dion?" "I go to Toronto."
Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.
I think the fairest evaluation will be from Flames fans and the majority of us here. He hated New York and his play really suffered because of it, I have been vocal we all have been and saying Kotalik is a waste, he’s garbage, he’s worse then Joker isn’t fair till we know how he’ll play here in Calgary.
I’d say out of all the Canadian Markets, the Albertan ones are the least of the vocal which is a good thing for a players like Higgins and Kotalik. I think we should just sit back and re-evaluate during the Olympic Break just as Daz will.
Somebody needs to turn down the heat in the Darryl Sutter's home.
I’m not a fan of this move. Picking up 3 mil/yr in salary after losing a first rounder and gaining 5 mil for the year seems like a total waste. I wager there’s something else afoot, but I’ve been wrong before.
Regardless, I loved Hagman before he was a flame. Not a super star, but a quality forward.
http://4thlineblog.com/2010/02/03/a-stat-look-at-ales-kotalik/
Hey Kent, here’s my purely statistical look at him (and a little bit at Hagman, as they own the two highest GAON/60 on the Flames now).
I’ve said this before. We need to pick the same metrics and place the same weight on them, otherwise it comes of as favoritism/idiocy.
GAON/60 for Kotalik is 3.42….which is not a nice number, and it’s 3.35 for Hagman, as you’ve said and 2.64 RBQ, and 2.55 Iggy.
When I used GAON/60 earlier this year to compare Langkow and Joker (Langkow’s being measurably worse at the time) everyone freaked out saying it was a result of on-ice sv%. The arguement went, Lanks GAON/60 is bad because of .903 sv%on. Forwards don’t affect sv%, they affect shots against.
Well. Kotalik’s SA/60 is 26.0 good for 8th best on the NYR. and his sv%on was .884 good for 2nd “unluckiest” on the NYR.
Kotalik’s SA/60 would put him about middling on the Flames, a team that allows significantly less SA (the Rangers have 15 guys who average 27.0 or more SA/60…the Flames 5 including Mayers)
Iginla, Boyd, Nystrom, Sarich and Regehr ALL have worse SA/60 than Kotalik and they play for the much stingier Flames. So relax.
Look, either Kotalik sucks defensively, or Jokinen was our best centre bar-none, one or the other. You can’t pick stats that skew the argument. Either way, we shouldn’t have traded Jokinen, but that’s not what the most common argument on the blog was either.
Let’s just keep it consistent.
As nice as stats are, context is required as well. For example, let’s say player A has 20 SA/60, and player B has 25 SA/60. If, on average, 10 of player A’s SA/60 are opposing breakaways/odd man rushes because they’re terrible defensively, and only 7 of player B’s SA/60 are opposing breakaways/odd man rushes, we could likely say that player A is more of a defensive liability.
Volume statistics like shots against, blocked shots, shots for, are nice, but shot quality is a pretty important consideration.
by SmellOfVictory on Feb 3, 2010 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
Hey SOV, you’re preaching to the choir. I don’t buy the argument at all that individual players have no effect, or an immeasurable effect on sv%ON. I do want however, analysis to be reasonably consistent from one player to another. Before we start digging Kotalik’s grave, let’s at least allow him to play 2 minutes. Especially when the raw stats we are making conclusion from don’t align with other conclusions.
Kent: You’re probably right, I likely should have posted on Arik’s blog, but I don’t read other hockey blogs. I already am easily distracted by this one. I guess I didn’t consider blog-ettiquette and continued the conversation from the first two comments in this expansion from Arik’s. My bad.
I will dig his grave, but I promise not to push him into it for at least a game or two. _
by SmellOfVictory on Feb 3, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions
Well, if that’s the way it’s gonna be then expect to be disappointed. I’m not sure how we get anywhere with this line of thinking:
Bash the hell out of Jokinen and Phaneuf and demand for their trades, cause they suck. (pretty much the thinking of most)
Then, turn around and expect the world in return for them, because, obviously they are so good that they demand it. (pretty much the thinking of most)
After the trades are completed, bash the hell out of Sutter because he didn’t get enough for the previously deemed “useless players” <— that’s a quote
Then kick the crap out of the incoming players, because they should have been elite, because they were traded for what many thought were crap.
If you wanted Phaneuf and Jokinen traded, please stand up.
If when traded you were disappointed in the return, sit down.
If you think the new players aren’t going to make us measurably better, stand up.
Starting to feel a bit foolish yet, yo-yo’ing around?
I wanted Joker traded, not Phaneuf.
We didn’t get enough for either of them.
I don’t see any way this team improved, at least skill wise, from last wednesday.
Go Flames Go
Where Ales Kotalik is the saviour of the franchise. Yuck.
by Justin Azevedo on Feb 3, 2010 5:06 PM PST up reply actions
I’m in a similar boat. Although it’s not that I didn’t want Phaneuf traded – I wanted either him or JBo gone (don’t care which), but I absolutely think he was worth more than what the Flames got. In regard to Jokinen, it’s not so much that I think he was worth a lot in players, but I think we got the wrong players for him; it’s pretty clear that him becoming a FA this summer would have helped the Flames immensely, and Kotalik, unless he makes some kind of miraculous turnaround, ruins that in a big way.
The Phaneuf trade is arguable – it shows promise, at least. The Jokinen trade would have been vastly improved if Kotalik had been replaced in it by Avery or something. I realise that cap space means that it couldn’t be Higgins+pick or Higgins+prospect (and clearly, Higgins was important to Sutter) but Avery has almost the same cap hit as Kotalik, and he’s not a disaster. In fact, he’d probably improve the team in comparison to Jokinen.
by SmellOfVictory on Feb 3, 2010 5:31 PM PST up reply actions
Actually, I take that back. No player who the Rangers could’ve & would’ve included with Higgins is worth giving up the cap space that the Flames did in the trade.
by SmellOfVictory on Feb 3, 2010 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
For what it’s worth … some interesting perspective on the Leafs trade from former players … then following the clip below, another clip with more perspective on the Rangers trade
http://watch.tsn.ca/off-the-record/off-the-record—-february-2/#clip262661
by Calgarian in SJ on Feb 3, 2010 11:19 AM PST reply actions
The only rationale
The only way I understand this trade is so the Phaneuf trade doesn’t look as bad. Sutter won’t be criticized for trading Dion because he’s too busy getting criticized for finding a contract even worse than Joker’s.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com
If utilized right I think Kotalik can actually help this team:
-At ES play him very little, and if so, against the worst possible competition (4th liners, rookies, ect.)
-Let him slip into Phaneufs old point spot on the PP to utilize that cannon of a shot.
-On the penalty kill, let him observe from the penalty box or on the bench
-Play him in the shootout
Also, no more Jokinen dragging down the PP!
Too bad Brent Sutter doesn’t read this blog
Kotalik / Higgins trade
Ok we get rid of a player that didn’t fit or wouldn’t fit.. But will Jokinen help or just be another joke. Lets face it, we do not have a championship caliber team. We just don’t.
And of course Sather is no help. As I have said in the past the organization has to be accountable from the top to the bottom, starting with Mr. Dolan. I just think that as long as the garden is making money, which in their mind is the bottom line, Dolan, Sather and all the other executives are happy.
by Rangers hockey for over 50 years on Feb 3, 2010 4:28 PM PST reply actions
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