Flames @ Senators Post-Game - Purgatory
by Kent Wilson on Feb 10, 2010 7:43 AM PST
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PrintThere are certainly worse things than being a Flames fan. Look North. The Panthers have stunk for years. Then there's the Maple Leafs. You get the picture.
However, the dull, plodding thud of constancy is beginning to wear thin in Calgary. There is a tiresome greyness about unchanging fortunes. Each year seems to have the distinct feel of inevitability to it. Since finishing first in the division in 2005-06, the Flames have changed coaching staffs, defenders, forwards, increased their budget and dealt away draft picks and never finished higher than 5th or lower than 8th. They have been, and seemingly are again, post-season cannon fodder before the elite clubs.
After the mini mid-season rebuild, there was some hope that the drastic alteration would lead to something new on the ice. That hope was increased after the new team came out firing in their first two contests. Alas, however, those games seem to be an effect of post-trade adrenaline and mediocre opponents. Since then, Calgary has returned to the bland, lackluster hockey that has marked most of their season.
Perhaps the Flames were victims of some bounces and curious officiating last night, but the underlying numbers weren't complimentary either. More telling, the club got markedly worse as the night went on, despite trailing. The Ottawa Senators, certainly not a juggernaut anymore, choked off any comeback attempt with relative ease. The Flames floundered in the neutral zone with the all the poise and passion of a team that has already accepted it's fate.
The lone bright spot may have been the continued strong play of Chris Higgins. The former Hab/Ranger was strong on the puck again the entire evening and was able to push things in the right direction whenever he was on the ice. He was the lone Calgary skater to finish in the black in terms of corsi and scoring chances. If his SH% can ever hop back up to respectability, the Flames might have another "Bourque" type player on their hands.
With the loss, the Flames have 67 points in 60 games. They now need 28 points out of their final 22 games in order to tally 95 points, which is the assumed cut-off point. That's roughly a 13-7-2 record. A 60% win rate in order to meet San Jose or Chicago in the first round...
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The Flames looked great for about the first period and a half, but once Ottawa scored the third goal, the Flames just seemed to completely deflate. The agonizing thing about the game is that all three Senators goals were due to lucky bounces (none of them came off really any kind of Senators pressure). Both Flames goals were just flat out nice passes/shots from Flames players. Just goes to show that lucky bounces can win games more than actual skill. Ironically, the Senators did have some great chances, but Kipper stopped them on those. First goal by Kovalev, can’t get much luckier than that, pinballs off two or three players before eventually going into the net off a Flames player. Then the puck takes a weird bounce and right onto Ruutu’s stick where he has a clean, uncontested shot. Third goal, Cheechoo’s pass would easily have gone wide of Spezza’s stick, but with the bounces going their way, naturally the puck hits a Flames skate in front and deflects right onto Spezza’s stick where he has a wide open net to shoot at. Of course, you can say all you want about the lucky goals by the Sens, but Kipper did his best to keep it close and the Flames just couldn’t respond by getting that third goal. I expected them to come out and play better in the third but it just didn’t happen, which is getting quite old because it seems to happen way too much anymore.
Man oh man. So much to say.
1.) Damn, the Sens have a lot of dirty players.
2.) Two of the Sens goals were completely missed calls. That first goal on the PP was a brutal pick, the third was a brutal hook. Officiating was brutal for a fourth game in a row.
3.) It appeared to me that the Flames dominated territorially in the first thirty minutes, if you were to go by zone time. But damn, it was like the Sens would generate a five-bell and a rebound ten-bell every fricking time they entered our zone. A lot of that is on the defense, blown coverage all night from the back-end.
4.) I like Peter Loubardias a lot, I think he speaks our language. That is, the language of territorial advantage and scoring chances.
5.) Huge mismatch on the third OTT goal. Alfredsson and Spezza vs. Backlund with Gio and Pardy behind him – even without the hook, that’s just an unfair matchup and everyone on the ice looked outclassed on that sequence of events. This is the kind of thing that defines why I don’t like Gio that much and why I think it’s dumb to have Backlund on an NHL roster at this point in his career. I hesitate to blame Sutter too much on that sequence though – he did start our weaklings in the OFF zone IIRC, they just failed to hold that position and in a big way.
6.) And yeah before I get nailed on it, Bouwmeester also made a mistake on the second goal, the off-the-glass play is high-risk. In fairness to him, he had no support in the slot on that sequence and the pass-up-the-middle from the boards is even higher-risk. He probably should have reversed although I don’t remember if there was an OTT player behind the net at the time. In any case, generally speaking claims like “Gio is our best defenseman” get my goat because that is so clearly not the case.
7.) Backlund isn’t yet fully ready for the speed of the NHL. I’m thinking of one sequence where Backlund had the puck on a 3 on 2 and just shot the puck wide from above the faceoff circle, wasted opportunity there. Usually when you see that it’s because the player is really dumb (think Jokinen), PKing (think Glencross), or is at the end of his shift and has nobody to pass to (think Glencross again).
8.) The standings barely moved last night so we can just call a mulligan I think. Hard to get too frustrated since I think the Flames forwards played okay in the first thirty. The defensemen have to get their heads out their asses though.
The Flames didn’t dominate territorially in the first 30 minutes – they were underwater all game. Marginally, for sure, but they were never better than even at any point beyond the first period. They were also never better than even in terms of scoring chances.
Giordano isn’t our best defenseman right now. He’s our best value defenseman. And, frankly, he’s a superior option to the likes of Cary Sarich for top 4 duty.
by Kent Wilson on Feb 10, 2010 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
By chances and shots they were behind. My comment was more on how the Flames had the puck more often in the OFF zone. Didn’t convert to outshooting or outchancing, so it was moot. And I blame the defense, saw most of them bad last night. But from where I sat the Flames forwards owned the puck more than the Sens forwards.
Gio can slot in for top 4 duty if he has a good defense partner, e.g. beside Bouwmeester or Regehr if he ever recovers (Reggie was awful last night too btw). If the coaches were to roll Bouwmeester and Regehr together I woudln’t want Gio anywhere near secondary competiton. His breakout pass is awesome but he is easily pressured on the boards esp. when the opposing forward is good.
don’t disregard this cause i’m a gio supporter but realistically, other than jaybouw, who on the flames would you RATHER see against top competition ? cause regehr’s been awful, white’s not quite as good as advertised, pardy is still prone to the odd mistake and sarich is a handful of penalties and missed checks away from needing to hang ’em up.
by walkinvisible on Feb 10, 2010 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
If Bouwmeester goes down then our defence corps is fucked. Regehr and Sarich took steps back and probably because of injury. If Phaneuf were still here then I would rather have him face top comp than Giordano.
Aside: White’s trash, I knew it from day one. Of course he’s playing in a tougher role than Giordano, but he’s not exactly suited for it. But the guy need soft minutes to perform, let’s hope he gets them so we can convert him in a trade into something useful.
However, we got back real forwards in the various trades which is important. A game last night where just about every D was terrible, well that won’t happen every game I don’t think. And even if they’re just average all the time, that’s okay with me, because it’s more important to have good forwards up and down the roster. They influence results more, even if you only have average D.
And of course the D isn’t average with the presence of Bouwmeester, the guy can make his defense partner good AND push all the other D down the depth chart at EV and PP and PK AND can stay on the good side of the scoring chances more often than not.
Let’s put it this way, if the D just had average games last night (stayed with their men a bit more, and made the safe breakouts a bit more, didn’t get beat as much) then Calgary would have had a good chance at outchancing the opposition.
White’s fine if we move him down the depth chart. I have no idea why Butter is sticking him next to a 60% Regehr on the top pairing and expecting good results.
I would suggest he’s better than Pardy, Johnson and, Sarich at this point.
by Kent Wilson on Feb 10, 2010 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, the Flames were actually fine for a portion of the first. I think they were outshooting 5-2 or something. Didn’t last though.
by Kent Wilson on Feb 10, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
That’s roughly a 13-7-2 record. A 60% win rate in order to meet San Jose or Chicago in the first round…
Then let’s hope the winrate ends up below 60%, because it’ll be just as dissatisfying to get swept in the first round as it would be to miss the playoffs entirely. Unless there’s a phoenix-like rebirth of the team’s most expensive non-Kipprusoff players, I daresay the Flames are, at best, in a similar playoff boat to the last couple of years, and that’s being generous. A lot can probably be blamed on coaching, but if the Flames were really contenders they’d be able to work past the coaching to some extent.
by SmellOfVictory on Feb 10, 2010 11:53 AM PST reply actions
For us, it would suck. For ownership I bet they wouldn’t at all mind the $2M+ in revenue from a one-round playoff run.
RCleave often reminds me that ownership doesn’t treat money the same way I would, and he’s got a point. But let’s not forget that the Flames haven’t missed the playoffs post-lockout yet, if they miss this season and lose the playoff revenue, we have no idea how that would affect future decisions. Could very well be for the worse.
The worst case scenario would be a rebuild. Man, who could stand that? I couldn’t bear to watch Oilers-style tanking hockey for a season or more. And the returns aren’t guaranteed either. Nothing’s a guarantee of course but when you’re watching piss-poor hockey it had better pay off in future seasons. And there’s a good chance it won’t pay off, why go down that road?
Tanking offers the Flames no benefits at all this year. Financially they’re better off if they make the post-season. The optics are better too, from a PR perspective. Sutter knows this. He also knows his position is far more tenuous if the Flames don’t make the cut, thus the most recent outburst of moves.
It may be too little, too late. Partially because the percentages have turned sour and there’s nothing much he can do about that. The time to really get after this stuff was November when the underlying numbers showed the team wasn’t performing up to snuff (or in the off-season, when it was clear the team needed at least one more legit player in the top 6). Ah well.
by Kent Wilson on Feb 10, 2010 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
kotalik was awe-inspiring. he was blocking shots. taking shots. making hits. skating back. skating forth. crunching numbers. stealing pucks. chopping wood. climbing mountains. building castles. firing guns. conquering planets. fighting aliens.
he F5 ’d the universe.
it was historic.
Well, without overstating things… that entire line was good, and Kotalik wasn’t dragging them down. I still have doubts but this is now four games in a row that he’s played well in. Maybe he’ll make a liar out of us all, and give the middle finger to his history to boot.
Odds aren’t with us but I’d love nothing more than to see him play well for the Flames.
That was awesome. I’ve said it since he came…give Kotalik a chance, and he hasn’t disappointed. I think he’s been very good, not great, but very good.
Flames cannot miss the playoffs…they cannot, but I’m afraid they will. I’ve been yammering on about the ‘needed record going forward’ and it looks bad, very, very bad.
Still gotta grab a backup otherwise Kipper is going to play every game from here on in the way things are going. Dude, can’t f*ing BUY a bounce. I think more goals have gone in off his own players in the past 10 then have beat him.
Iggy sucks. Sorry, I am plain out starting to hate that guy. F*ing MAN UP! He shoulda been traded instead of Phaneuf. Then we wouldn’t have to put up with Colin White.
Speaking of “D”….why are you guys sucking so much? It’s like a whole group suck. Please stop sucking. Especially Sarich. Man, if we lived in a world where natural laws did not apply, maybe we could trade Sarich….for anyone, but we don’t, and he sucks right now and he makes 3.2 million. He ain’t going anywhere.
Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!
dude u said the same thing at flames nation
by Rod Blogojevich on Feb 10, 2010 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
We’re not going to miss the playoffs we are only 5 out of the Division lead.
Vancouver is on this road trip from hell and they are far from perfect, Colorado is just a collapse waiting to happen.
Have a little faith guys if we end up bowing out to Dallas and Anaheim then hit the panic button.
It's not Delivery? it's Giordano.
We’re not going to miss the playoffs we are only 5 out of the Division lead.
That’s a fair sized gap given the circumstances. Both COL and VAN have 2 games in hand on Calgary. If, say, Van replicates their 60% win rate over their final 24 games, they’ll win about 14 of them, so 14-8-2…giving them 102 points on the year. For Calgary to get 102 points, they’d have to go 17-7-1.
One or both of COL and VAN will have to go in the tank to some degree and the Flames will probably have to improve to some degree. Impossible? Not at all. Probable…not so sure.
Odds are against both VAN and COL (especially COL) replicating their win rates. Both are riding sky-high SH%’s too. Of course Calgary has to worry about its own percentages, they have to hold up to league average for the Flames to have a chance.
But I still think the reasonable expectation is 2nd in the division, and 1st isn’t out of reach.
And you know I don’t buy into hype, this is really how the reasonable expectations shake out to the best of my knowledge.
I’d like Sutter to make a move for a difference maker but early returns on the trades are positive, and it’s nice to have more real forwards right now :-)
I’m through waiting for the Avs to crater – at last for this season. Whatever deal they made with the Devil seems to extend until next year. I’d be glad to be wrong, of course, but there’s been no real sign of abatement.
Vancouver, I think, is the real deal. Percentages are good, but part of that is Lunogo and their top end is legit.
The Flames proved last year that things can go very wrong in the last 20 games or so. So anything’s possible and they aren’t in a terrible hole. But things have to break right both ways for the Flames to catch anybody.
“Games In Hand” is such a ridiculous statement. In the end all of the teams play 82 games.
Go Flames Go
"WAS IT OVER WHEN THE GERMANS BOMBED PEARL HARBOUR?"
by Justin Azevedo on Feb 10, 2010 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
I dunno Kent, VAN has looked terrible against some of those Eastern teams. Spanked in the first against TOR, against OTT while the game was on the line, and really really awful against Boston, so damn lucky they walked away with one point let alone two.
Vancouver is on this road trip from hell and they are far from perfect
That’s slightly over-stated. Vancouver management and fans want the rest of the league to think it’s the road-trip from hell, but it’s not. It’s not a 14-game trip, it’s an eight game and a six game, and that’s not the same thing, at least not in my opinion. The first eight games are: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Tampa, Florida, Columbus, Minnesota. Not the hardest stretch of games in the world, and on the front end the travel is minimal, with just one back-to-back. After the break, granted, it’s a bit tougher (Columbus, Detroit, Chicago, Nashville, Colorado, Phoenix with two back-to-backs, though.), but I’m not convinced that the Canucks will fair as poorly as we hope.
Sorry for the rant, but I am so tired of the media and fans here playing the woe-is-us card. Yeah, it’s two long back-to-back roadtrips, but it’s not as bad as they like to claim… And I will grant that the Canucks are far from perfect :)
Besides, in terms of distance traveled this year (from game to game at least), the Flames are #1 in the league.
Go Flames Go
"WAS IT OVER WHEN THE GERMANS BOMBED PEARL HARBOUR?"
by Justin Azevedo on Feb 10, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
Not to mention that they will (obviously) be the only team to have their Olympians at home during the Olympics.
Not sure how much of an advantage that will be, though, to be honest. The player will be with their respective teams in the Olympic Village and 100% focussed on the games. With the guys flying in on Sunday night, skating on Monday and playing on Tuesday, there’s not a lot of time for “being at home,” at least that I can see.
i feel like i’ve been nominated as social director.
by walkinvisible on Feb 10, 2010 3:57 PM PST up reply actions
I approve this nomination. I’m in.
Go Flames Go
"WAS IT OVER WHEN THE GERMANS BOMBED PEARL HARBOUR?"
by Justin Azevedo on Feb 10, 2010 4:07 PM PST up reply actions
right on. no idea where you are but flames central is… well… central. mikeH and i are both in the north (just).
by walkinvisible on Feb 10, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
dph is also a northie. no idea if he’s interested, though.
by walkinvisible on Feb 10, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
I live on 17th, so FC=Perfect.
Go Flames Go
"WAS IT OVER WHEN THE GERMANS BOMBED PEARL HARBOUR?"
by Justin Azevedo on Feb 10, 2010 11:50 PM PST up reply actions
email me your phone number if you want: walkinvisible@gmail.com…. it will make actually sitting at the same table much simpler. :)
by walkinvisible on Feb 11, 2010 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
In much the same way that a dictator is nominated for presidency. Haha.
by SmellOfVictory on Feb 10, 2010 5:00 PM PST up reply actions
Justin Azevedo make sure you don’t crush too many Coronas at the blogger meet up
by Rod Blogojevich on Feb 10, 2010 5:00 PM PST up reply actions
I’ll try to keep it around 6.
Go Flames Go
"WAS IT OVER WHEN THE GERMANS BOMBED PEARL HARBOUR?"
by Justin Azevedo on Feb 10, 2010 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
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