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Flames Game Day: Bête Noire, The Return

 


Pengrowth Saddledome

7:30 PM MT

Opposition: Second City Hockey

TV: TSN


 

Tonight is a bit of a contrast, isn't it? One team performs the way I think most people would want their own club to go about matters. Fast, skilled, a touch on the cocky side, there's really a lot to like about how they approach the game.

The other team in the affair is, unfortunately, the focus of this very blog. They aren't a bad team, but they haven't shown consistent evidence of being elite, either. The Cluster in California has caused the type of discontent around the team and the fan base that one might well expect, and this evening's encounter with a team that has exposed their every weakness for two years running has done nothing to reduce the feelings of unease.

Star-divide

 

The gap between the two clubs is mostly a reflection of the speed and skill disparity in the two groups of forwards. Goals against on a night like Monday are often as much a reflection of a team's forward play as any thing that the D or goalies might contribute, and if you want to point out where the Flames appear deficient, it starts up front. The locals will run Conroy and Glencross out there with the captain this evening, by the sounds of things, and that really just can't last if there's any hope of this year ending well. Those two guys are fine in their role, but that role is two lines lower, full stop. If they go head to head with Toews and Kane, that's asking a lot.

The Langkow line emerged relatively unscathed from events on Monday night, and tonight's game will probably see them match some combination of Versteeg, Sharp, Ladd, Hossa, Byfuglien and Madden, with Chicago's, er, leftovers, from that sextet meeting up with Jokinen, Lundmark and Nystrom. That's not the most appetizing prospect to my mind, and even if the best of the Flames can hang in there, the depth of talent seems like a mismatch. Bourque and Dawes likely need to be very good for the night to end well.

 

The back line has been intact for a few weeks now, since Sarich returned from his foot injury. He admitted today that he wasn't actually healthy when he returned for his initial stint on the roster. No matter who's on the blue, they need help from the forwards in terms of keeping the Hawks in their own end for a change. The Flame D isn't really that slow anymore, but when forwards come at you unimpeded all night, it might make you look behind the pace.

 

Miikka Kiprusoff will have a chance to get back on the horse tonight, with his two periods work in San Jose being a), not his best and b), not relevant in the final outcome. He needs to play a blinder tonight for the Flames to win, IMO.

 

I've talked enough about the Hawk strengths, so with that in mind, it's pretty clear that whatever weakness they have exists from the blue line back. Keith and Seabrook are stellar, obviously, but beyond that, they're just OK. Brian Campbell has taken advantage of softer comp to run up some nice boxcar numbers, but nobody really looks at him as a defensive stalwart. In net, Antti Niemi will start in goal after a rough night in Ottawa for Cristobal Huet. Goaltending will be looked at as the potential Achilles heel for the Hawks until they win a Cup, frankly, and that often isn't the perfect reflection of whether a goalie is any good. Chris Osgood for the Hall of Fame, and all that jazz. Niemi looks like a pretty good goalie, so he may end up getting a shot at the number one job when April rolls around. 

 

Game wise? Stay out of the box. The Flames got pantsed by the Hawk PP last time around, and they're currently running 6th in the league by percentage. The other matter is if the Hawks have the Flames beat before the game ever happens. I've always been of the opinion that a lot of alleged mental blocks are really just a manifestation of a talent disparity exposed, but if the Hawks actually are in Calgary's heads, that shit's got to go, because Chicago is likely to be in the way at some juncture of the playoffs. If tonight turns out poorly, the four days before the team plays St. Louis might be very uncomfortable, and could well present the opportunity for a roster change or two.

 

Game time is 7:30 MT on TSN.

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To counter the inevitable “it’s going to be a blowout” posts:

The line tonight is -130 Chicago which corresponds to 55-45 odds (in favor of the Hawks). Considering the Flames are at home with two days rest, that means the bookies favor the Hawks 60-40 on neutral ice.

Which is actually significant if you think about it. Given that Calgary has a strong defence and goaltender and their forwards aren’t all mush, and if you think about the kind of sustained goal differential you need to put up in order to gain a 10% edge (from even odds)… it speaks to how highly the bookies respect the Hawks.

But, 55-45 in no way implies a blowout as a reasonable expectation.

Personally I thought they’d give even odds (thus favoring Chicago 55-45 on neutral ice) because that’s what they did for the last game. Of course since then the Hawks added Hossa, which really tells you how much of a difference maker he can be (SCF clutch factor be damned), even for a stacked team.

by R O on Jan 21, 2010 3:19 PM PST reply actions  

Im attending tonight’s affair. And that’s not good – the last game I went to was the Minny debacle in December. In fact, I tend to see a lot of bad hockey played by the Flames whenever I attend live.

Anyone want to cover scoring chances? If not, I’ll just record the game and do them up tomorrow.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 21, 2010 3:25 PM PST reply actions  

Enjoy the game, and set the PVR, amigo.

by Robert Cleave on Jan 21, 2010 4:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I missed the last two games, Anaheim and San Jose, to play hockey and then to attend university, so this will be my first game watched since I saw them play in Vancouver. Side note: Vancouver fans are very unfriendly when you’re wearing the Red C.

I’m hoping for at least some decent hockey out of the Flames, to make up for the 2 or so weeks since I’ve seen a game.

Speaking of Conroy, however, what’s the opinion on re-signing him for another year? I’m leaning towards yes, because he’s a leader and still sound defensively for the most part – on the condition he plays in the bottom 6 and is managed well.

by jessnbrown on Jan 21, 2010 4:08 PM PST reply actions  

Probably can’t go wrong for less than a mill.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 21, 2010 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, Ol’ man Conroy is still value for $. I think he’s gonna retire though and post-game press scrums consisting of pure mumbling will sadly be the the norm (Jarome and his proforma statements not withstanding).

by Parallex on Jan 21, 2010 5:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I, too, think he’s done after the season. I don’t know why I think that, I just do.

Go Flames Go

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 21, 2010 6:20 PM PST up reply actions  

i’m also attending, even though i turned down tickets twice…. third time’s a charm, i guess. i’m pretty sure i’ll win the 50-50… either that or i’m destined for a puck in the face. kent: i’ll buzz you, it’d be nice to catch up for a cup o’ heroin or a pocketdawg. :)

by walkinvisible on Jan 21, 2010 4:40 PM PST reply actions  

The first thing I did when I went to the Colorado game was make my way over to the PD stand. It was very good.

Go Flames Go

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 21, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I feel really confident about the game tonight, sure the Hawks are a good team but nobody likes playing a team after getting embarrassed I expect the Flames to get under the Hawks skin piss them off and forcing the Hawks to make dumb penalties.

Kipper will rise to the occasion and so should Iggy. Sutter probably had a good talk with Jarome and yeah right now he has to carry the team.

I’ve been waiting for this game since November 19th.

I want my Scoring please.

by CofRed on Jan 21, 2010 4:51 PM PST reply actions  

Well I’m definitely looking for some piss’n’vinegar out of the team tonight. Seriously, if you get embarrassed/humiliated like they just did and don’t show up the next game with a big chip on your shoulder…

by Parallex on Jan 21, 2010 5:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Cassie Campbell just noted that Darryl Sutter is watching his 2nd straight NYR game tonight. What the hell do they have that we’d want?

by Kent Wilson on Jan 21, 2010 5:04 PM PST reply actions  

Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. Beyond that, damned if I know.

by Robert Cleave on Jan 21, 2010 5:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Does anyone know why Sjostrom is sitting? C’mon coach, Chicago is a fast team put the speedy forechecker in there. McGrattan can effin’ sit tonight.

by Parallex on Jan 21, 2010 5:59 PM PST reply actions  

As much as I hate to say it, this is one of the games McG may actually be useful. That stupid asshole Byfuglyn (or however you spell it) will probably have a lot more restraint when McG’s on the ice. Plus the Hawks have a couple players of McG’s ilk, so…

Go Flames Go

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 21, 2010 6:22 PM PST up reply actions  

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