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Just Another Tale Ending in Tears and Shinpads

 


A few weeks back, Vic Ferrari at Irreverent Oiler Fans got his playershots script (aka the Daniel and Henrik) working for this season's data. It allows you to look at season shot and Corsi totals for players at EV, as well as creating combinations of players to see how they do when grouped (which is where the D and H part kicks in).

Another function it has is that it creates team totals, and once it was up and running, I thought I'd take a look at a few things. One of the first items I noticed was that Calgary's shot/Corsi ratio looked to be about 50%. Now right around that time in late December, the Flames had won a game in Edmonton despite getting 18 shots blocked at EV, and most of us had seen that sort of thing cropping up in other games, particularly versus the Avalanche. 

With that in mind, it got me wondering if this was the sort of thing that all teams were dealing with, or were the Flames some sort of exception? I did note with some interest that the Sportsnet crew mentioned the Flames spent a portion of Saturday's practice in Anaheim specifically working on hitting the net with their shots.

Star-divide

So, I decided to look at the other Western Conference teams' shot/Corsi ratios in the hope of seeing if there was some sort of pattern, and where Calgary fit within it. I'm about to the point where I regard the differences between the two Conferences in the same manner I used to regard those between the two baseball leagues back in the 70s and early 80s, with the Western Conference in the role of the National League of that era. If someone wants to look at the East or the league as a whole, have at it.

Before we get into the data, a bit of housekeeping. First, as per all Corsi related conversations, all data is at EV only. Second, I was mindful of a post Vic did last year that suggested that the Flames' official scorer was cruel but fair. In other words, the Flames' scorer tended to mark a smaller percentage of attempted shots as actual shots on goal compared to other arena scorers, but that person appeared to look at the opposition's shooting in an equal manner. No home cooking, if you will. With that in mind, I reviewed the Flames' road data separately to ensure that they weren't being unfairly assessed, and I'll discuss those numbers as well as we move on. Finally, all data is for games through the 19th of January.

 

So, let's get to the meat of this deal, and remember that Corsi is simply the total for all attempted shots, including misses and blocks.

 


Team SOG Corsi %
CBJ 1185 2029 58.4
COL 964 1684 57.2
CHI 1315 2315 56.7
ANA 1081 1916 56.4
DAL 1192 2124 56.1
LA 1068 1960 54.5
SJ 1230 2261 54.4
EDM 1099 2023 54.3
VAN 1092 2019 54.1
DET 1201 2234 53.8
PHX 1187 2214 53.6
MIN 1072 2019 53.1
NSH 1136 2144 53
STL 1066 2011 53
CGY 1106 2192 50.5


 

 


Surprising, I know.

 

The low rate isn't something to sneeze at, IMO. If the Flames were merely at the median level of 54.3%, they'd have an extra 84 SOG. Considering Calgary's 8.0 EV SH %, that's worth 6 extra goals, or 2 extra points by the conventional wisdom, which, looking at the current WC standings, might not be a bad thing at all.

 

So, where is the shortfall coming from? It isn't really from missing the net, despite what the team might have chosen for a practice exercise over the weekend:

 

TEAM ATT BLKD %
COL 1698 371 22
ANA 1916 422 22
LA 1960 436 22.2
DAL 2124 495 23.3
MIN 2019 477 23.6
CBJ 2029 480 23.7
STL 2011 479 23.8
CHI 2315 554 23.9
DET 2234 537 24.0
NSH 2144 516 24.1
VAN 2019 490 24.3
SJ 2261 558 24.7
EDM 2023 499 24.7
PHX 2214 557 25.2
CGY 2192 595 27.1




Holy Mackerel, we've got a lot of blocked shots. (/KLowe'd)


Again, if the Flames simply operated at the median level of 23.9%, they would have had only 524 shots blocked, or 71 fewer than they currently have. Bearing in mind that they were about 84 shots off the median altogether, I think we can see where the issue lies. What must add to the frustration of the paying patrons, they're actually worse in Calgary, with 28% of all their attempts being blocked.

Head to head, the Flames allow 53.4% of attempts against to reach the net, which isn't bad, really. That's 4th conference wide, and the Flames have blocked over 500 shots themselves. You'll be astonished to know that the greatest positive percentage differential belongs to Colorado, since they allow only 52.4% of shots through. They block 27.5% of all shots attempted against them, so they don't just do it in Calgary. I do use the word "allow" advisedly, since misses are part of that equation, of course.

I don't think I've been shy about the fact that I think the Flames often make life easy for opposition defenders and goaltenders. They struggle at times with changing the point of attack, both at EV and on the PP, and as a result, it often looks as if every goalie they play is always square to the shooters and every defender is perfectly placed in the shooting lanes. My question would be, if they don't have to move laterally to combat puck and player movement, why wouldn't they look that way? The day that the Flames fix that problem is the day when we'll see fewer blocked shots against, and I'd suspect, more consistent production. Whether that's a style matter or a personnel issue is something I'll leave as an exercise for the reader.

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Shot on Goal Totals

Its interesting that the shots on goal total for Northwest Division is an average of 100 less than the average for the other divisions (1066 v 1166), which would appear to be significant. This is also reflected in a 346 point difference in corsi totals (1987 v 2323). Even if you take out Colorado as an outlier, the Northwest corsi total only jumps to an average of 2063. It appears that there is a consistent 10% decrease in Northwest team totals relative to the other divisions.

I’m not sure that a counting bias can fully account for this different. It could also be a product of the Northwest Division not having a truly standout team to this point. There could also be something more at play.

by HugoAgogo on Jan 20, 2010 3:04 AM PST reply actions  

Regarding Iginla’s play (loosely related to this) as well as a few other things, I saw a post on hfboards that I found to be of interest:

“Take the weight of the Saddledome off of his shoulders and he’d be back to 50-goal form.

Although (on principle as a Canucks fan) I do not like Iggy, and though I think he’s chirps too much and only looks half-interested at times, Iginla is taking way too much crap from the Calgary fans and media.

Here’s a franchise winger that the GM never bothered to pair up with a #1 center, is virtually counted on to provide ALL of his team’s offense night after night, and is constantly the brunt of his team’s blame. IMHO he’s quite possibly mentally exhausted.

He’s had a carousel of coaches and his GM has the team stacked with grinders.

Sutter really **** the bed on this one. Somehow in his little mind’s eye he thinks he can win with a full lineup of “Good Ol’ Canadian Grinders” when it’s plainly obvious that what they need is a few guys who can be creative with the puck and can make plays (not necessarily Europeans but you get the gist).

And little Sutter (the Coach) must be drinking moonshine if he thinks he can have his team playing balls-to-the-wall hockey night after night. No team can do that night in and night out.

You just can’t do it, and it’s obvious with the way they outwork their opponents but don’t get goals and then a big letdown every few games."

by SmellOfVictory on Jan 20, 2010 3:08 AM PST reply actions  

Yes, Iginla ‘chirps’ too much. He lacks the honor and integrity of Alex Burrows.
Iginla doesn’t escape blameless here- Sutter can’t exactly get Nik Backstrom (WAS), Malkin, Thornton etc very easily in a capped league. At the end of the day, he had Huselius and Tanguay ‘fail’ on his wing, and Jokinen + Langkow ‘fail’ as his centre (other than that magical run in December/January 07-08 when Iginla approached Keenan with regards to playing with Huselius and Langkow). Jokinen seems to be proven as a rather lackluster player, and its fair to say none of Langkow, Tanguay, or Huselius have exceeded the production they hit while on Iggy’s line. Unfortunately for Jarome, though, is when you make 7M a year, you damn well better put the team on your shoulders every so often and carry the load, because when you make that much money, he’s gotta realize at some point he is holding the GM back from landing a player who can finally ‘mesh’ with himself, since nothing has worked so far. Your cap hit/salary has to be indicative of production when a cap is in place in order to be successful. Does Iginla deserve all of the blame? No, of course not. But when you make more money than Henrik Sedin, you better outproduce him.

Also, WTF do you mean “balls to the wall” coaching style by Sutter? Trying hard? That’s what is to be expected, IMO. What is the other option? Being so skilled that you can pack the effort in some nights and still win? The Canucks certainly aren’t in that boat. Nor are the Capitals, Devils, Sharks, or Blackhawks. They need a consistent effort every night to win, just like the Flames need to maintain.

I understand where you are coming from, but the Flames’ issues stem from places other than their ‘balls to the wall’ coaching style, and Iginla’s lack of a ‘true number one centre.’ Its not like the Flames are in dire straits like the Oilers here- teams just sometimes need to regroup and reconsider their approach.

Next time the Canucks go on a little losing streak, though, I’ll be sure to pop by NucksMisconduct and offer my two cents. What were you guys saying last year when you went on that massive skid at the beginning of 2009?
-Luongo is awful and injury prone
-Sedins are soft
-Sundin was a brutal pick up
-Burrows and Kesler chirp too much
But hey, you guys somehow managed to get your act together and look what happened – you still won the division!
I know that this is a great time to be a Canuck fan, but spare us your ‘expert, unbiased opinion’ from an outsiders perspective. Enjoy seeing us lose just as much as we love to see the Canucks fail, but just leave it at that.

by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 20, 2010 6:04 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

touche

It’s a Canucks fan that ONLY joined M&G in late December…no Nucks Misconduct for Mr. Smell O’. My question is then, are they Canucks fans? Or simply get a group of individuals that get off on trashing the C of Red? I pick the latter.

Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.

by KingJafi on Jan 20, 2010 7:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Good point Jafi, I didnt look to even see what Smellofvictory belongs too, no Nucks Misconduct, so I take back anything I said to that regard. He may have an agenda, but I suppose he was just saying his piece, and was pretty objective. I guess I’m just a little oversensitive these days with the Flames playing so well and such. haha.
All I can say is that there isnt really a need to crucify Sutter for not getting someone to play with Iginla. Iginla’s salary should speak for itself- at that price, he has to realize that he is slightly handcuffing the GM financially, limiting his flexibility to test the open waters for someone to play with him. Hopefully Jarome is making some good money in those badass Force Fate Nike commercials and decides to take a pay cut!

PS Sorry for going off topic here, Robert

by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 20, 2010 8:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Just to clear something up, I’m a Flames fan, and this is a quote (being a quote, I don’t agree with everything in it, but I thought he made good points).

Don’t know the coding to place a quote in a separate box for these comments. Also, feel free to go talk as much smack to the Nucks fans as you want. :p

by SmellOfVictory on Jan 20, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions  

And I realize that Iginla’s contract is largeish, but Sutter did get a bunch of guys who could play with him and help him out – then he traded them away or let them walk. Tanguay helped, Cammaleri definitely helped (he may not have been much of a playmaker, but he could at least finish Iggy’s passes), and Huselius, despite his slumps, helped a fair bit. I really don’t think Iggy NEEDED a Savard or a Getzlaf (although they certainly would’ve helped a lot) – even the guys he got were good enough to take some of the load, but Sutter decided to go with another expensive D-man and the Joker instead.

by SmellOfVictory on Jan 20, 2010 12:14 PM PST up reply actions  

i had you pegged as a flames fan too.
it’s amazing what a difference a set of quotation marks can do to the meaning of a comment, hey ? :)

by walkinvisible on Jan 20, 2010 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah I see what you meant, smellofvictory… my bad!

by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 20, 2010 2:06 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Great, great stuff Robert. Thanks.

It’d be really interesting to see what moderates this stuff. From a Flames perspective, you’re right – the club plays in a lot of straight lines and rarely moves the puck east or west, especially in the offensive zone. There’s not a lot of cross-crease, bang-bang plays from this crew. Is that skill level? The coach?

by Kent Wilson on Jan 20, 2010 8:18 AM PST reply actions  

There are a lot of issues at play. Do they emphasize movement and passing as a team? If not, why not? This is straight observational stuff, but when we discuss the Flames, the phrase, “great passing team” isn’t often thrown around. That can be both a specific skill issue within the player group, and a choice of emphasis by the coaches. You only have so much time to practice, so working on that sort of skill may not be the priority item.

I did look at Washington this morning, and they have a ridiculous number of blocks against, 669 in 2330 attempts. Of course, when you shoot 10% at EV, that makes a lot of things moot, but as I noted in the piece, the Eastern Conference has a different vibe about it. I don’t think the the Flames’ skill level matches Washington’s, of course. There’s only so much difference I’ll ascribe to quality of competition.

by Robert Cleave on Jan 20, 2010 9:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Just to add

the average for shots % of corsi in the WC is 54.61. The STD DEV is about 2.0%. That puts Calgary (at 50.5) more than two deviations below the mean.

The mean for % of shots blocked is 23.91%, with a STD DEV of 1.31%…again, the Flames at 27.1% are more than 2 standard deviations away from mean, this time in the opposite (as in, still bad) direction.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 20, 2010 12:08 PM PST reply actions  

D’oh!. I completely forgot to post that part. Thanks, KW. At home, the Flames get 28.0% (315/1127) of their shots blocked, which is just over 3 SD away from the mean. For those unaware, when data that’s normally distributed, 68 percent of the data usually falls within 1 SD, 95 percent within 2 SD, and 99.7% falls within 3 SD of the mean.

by Robert Cleave on Jan 20, 2010 12:19 PM PST up reply actions  

“when data is normally distributed”, that is.

by Robert Cleave on Jan 20, 2010 12:20 PM PST up reply actions  

99.9th percentile (rounded) is some impressive failure. =D

by SmellOfVictory on Jan 20, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Anyone feel like Calgary should be in the running for Kovalchuk? This data all points towards needing that talented top 6 forward to join the crew. Iginla may be out of his prime, I’m sorry to say, but Kovalchuk isn’t.

by jessnbrown on Jan 20, 2010 12:22 PM PST reply actions  

Nope. He’d cost more than the Flames have to offer in trade – and more than they’d have to sign in the summer.

Also, Kovalchuk’s stats are pumped by his circumstances – last night he played 11 minutes at ES and a mind boggling 12 minutes on the PP. That’s how you get production out of Kovie, because he ain’t going to do too much otherwise.

Basically, he’s a better version of Olli Jokinen. He can help teams win games, as long as they very carefully manage his ice time. That’s not something you should have to do with a very expensive contract (as we’re learning this year) – because in order to manage a guy like that properly, you have to fill your club with other players capable of doing all the other heavy lifting.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 20, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions  

IMO Kovalchuk is significantly overvalued. He puts up good superficial numbers and is a flashy player so his price gets bumped up an extra 2 mil above what it should be.

by SmellOfVictory on Jan 20, 2010 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

boys can dream, i suppose. regardless, jokinen better not be resigned, or we’re seriously in for some trouble next season. maple leaf style trouble.

by jessnbrown on Jan 20, 2010 5:07 PM PST up reply actions  

some of us think that we’re just shy of leafsom NOW.

by walkinvisible on Jan 20, 2010 6:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I read that and thought you were stretching things a bit – it’s one thing to call two players similar, but there’s a lot of range in those similarities. I don’t know anything about the Leafs, to be honest, so maybe the comparisons are closer than I think.

by maimster on Jan 20, 2010 7:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Kovie is much better than Joker I think. I am not a proponent of going after him (not like we could) and a don’t believe that he is worth 9-10 million. I consider him like a better Kessel which would be great to have on our team for the 5-6 million range (like Joker).

Of course that is not going to happen…but that is a nice dream

by 44stampede on Jan 20, 2010 6:09 PM PST reply actions  

Plus, let’s face it – the Sutter’s would have no use for Kovalchuk.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 20, 2010 7:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Totally

Whoever gets him needs to have a good center to dish the pucks. Otherwise getting value will be tough…with all due respect to Lanks, that is not his MO

by 44stampede on Jan 20, 2010 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Did you ever decide on a ‘trade’ to ATL to get him, for that mythical exercise a week or two back?

by maimster on Jan 20, 2010 7:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Never mind, I just went over to Bird Watcher’s Anonymous and noticed there was no Flame’s response. Probably best fits the response from over here.

by maimster on Jan 20, 2010 7:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, no. It was pretty clear the Flames wouldn’t want him and wouldn’t have enough to offer anyways.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 20, 2010 9:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Excellent post, Robert, really interesting stuff. Thanks for pointing me here last night. I have been interested in shots v. Corsi for a while, but haven’t the computing chops or the patience to do it myself.

You have focussed on team stats here, but are there individuals within the team who are particularly susceptible to having their shots blocked? I think defencemen generally have more trouble hitting the net because their shots are both further away and tend to be slap shots, but some guys just hammer away regardless. I know Souray is like that for Edmonton and I suspect Phaneuf might be similar in Cowtown.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 22, 2010 11:04 AM PST reply actions  

Bruce, I’m currently on a break at work, and I don’t have the spreadsheet at my fingertips, but Phaneuf’s block/attempt % was north of 34, IIRC. I don’t disagree with your defenceman premise off the top of my head, either, but that’s what looking at the actual numbers is for. I’m also going, at some juncture, to have a look at whether teams that have the highest proportion of EV shots from the D are in the group of teams with the lowest shot/Corsi ratio.

As for the computing chops, I’m really good at copying Vic’s data into a spreadsheet. Beyond that, things get a bit dicier ;-)

by Robert Cleave on Jan 22, 2010 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

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