A few weeks back, Vic Ferrari at Irreverent Oiler Fans got his playershots script (aka the Daniel and Henrik) working for this season's data. It allows you to look at season shot and Corsi totals for players at EV, as well as creating combinations of players to see how they do when grouped (which is where the D and H part kicks in).
Another function it has is that it creates team totals, and once it was up and running, I thought I'd take a look at a few things. One of the first items I noticed was that Calgary's shot/Corsi ratio looked to be about 50%. Now right around that time in late December, the Flames had won a game in Edmonton despite getting 18 shots blocked at EV, and most of us had seen that sort of thing cropping up in other games, particularly versus the Avalanche.
With that in mind, it got me wondering if this was the sort of thing that all teams were dealing with, or were the Flames some sort of exception? I did note with some interest that the Sportsnet crew mentioned the Flames spent a portion of Saturday's practice in Anaheim specifically working on hitting the net with their shots.
So, I decided to look at the other Western Conference teams' shot/Corsi ratios in the hope of seeing if there was some sort of pattern, and where Calgary fit within it. I'm about to the point where I regard the differences between the two Conferences in the same manner I used to regard those between the two baseball leagues back in the 70s and early 80s, with the Western Conference in the role of the National League of that era. If someone wants to look at the East or the league as a whole, have at it.
Before we get into the data, a bit of housekeeping. First, as per all Corsi related conversations, all data is at EV only. Second, I was mindful of a post Vic did last year that suggested that the Flames' official scorer was cruel but fair. In other words, the Flames' scorer tended to mark a smaller percentage of attempted shots as actual shots on goal compared to other arena scorers, but that person appeared to look at the opposition's shooting in an equal manner. No home cooking, if you will. With that in mind, I reviewed the Flames' road data separately to ensure that they weren't being unfairly assessed, and I'll discuss those numbers as well as we move on. Finally, all data is for games through the 19th of January.
So, let's get to the meat of this deal, and remember that Corsi is simply the total for all attempted shots, including misses and blocks.
Surprising, I know.
The low rate isn't something to sneeze at, IMO. If the Flames were merely at the median level of 54.3%, they'd have an extra 84 SOG. Considering Calgary's 8.0 EV SH %, that's worth 6 extra goals, or 2 extra points by the conventional wisdom, which, looking at the current WC standings, might not be a bad thing at all.
So, where is the shortfall coming from? It isn't really from missing the net, despite what the team might have chosen for a practice exercise over the weekend: