Flames/Pens Post-Game - I Want a (blank) Goal Right (blank) Now!
by Kent Wilson on Jan 14, 2010 8:46 AM PST
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PrintThere's a scene (NSFW) in Planes, Trains and Automobiles that nicely sums up the way Flames fans (and players) are likely feeling right now. It's near the end of the film where Steve Martin's character trudges out to a middle-of-nowhere parking lot only to discover his rental car isn't there. Seething, he returns to the rental place and directs an expletive filled tirade at the unfortunate clerk.
With that in mind, I think it's pretty safe to say that everyone involved with the Flames organization would like a f**king game where the f**king team scores more than two f**king goals. Where the f**king opposition goalie isn't f**king lights out; where pucks don't hit f**king posts, break-aways actually go in the f**king net and Jarome Iginla's shots don't always go f**king wide.
There. Just had to get that out.
To be fair, the team is play well right now. Really well. They spend way more time in the offensive zone, they out-shoot their opponents and they generate far more chances. Pucks just aren't going in for whatever reason. It's natural to point fingers at the players, of course. Every chance they get seems to end up wide, shot into a block or at the goalie's chest. But the truth is (also) that the bounces haven't been there. One has to expect that, at some point, things will turn around if the team keeps up this level of play.
Again, the Flames out-played Pittsburgh in every period last night, particularly at even-strength. Ironically, it was Calgary's much maligned power play that actually got them on the board with Mark Giordano doing the honors. It's noteworthy that all five Calgary PP scoring chances were generated with Bourque, Dawes and Langkow on the ice. The supposed first unit featuring Jokinen and Iginla floundered with the man advantage. Again.
The first line did play well at even-strength, however, even though they saw a lot of Crosby. I think Brent Sutter has reversed his earlier tendency of sending out Olli and Jarome for own-zone draws which saw them drowning in both pools and puddles in October/November. So while they are still seeing some of the other team's better players, they often begin the shift with the high-ground, which helps keep them from spending their time chasing the puck around the defensive zone.
That would mean everyone else is getting th defensive zone draws, which may explain why the 3rd unit has gone from creating the best chance differentials to barely keeing their heads above water. Even with Nystrom demoted, Conroy back in the middle and Glencross patrolling the left side, that trio was a cumulative +2 in terms of chances last night (whereas Iginla and company were +20). If my assumptions are true, I think it's a sensible move by Sutter: it makes sense to set up Iginla et al for success; partially because they are (theoretically) the more capable offensive players and partly because they were getting their asses handed to them in that role previously.
Finally, the TSN crew spent a good portion of the evening gushing about Mark Giordano's performance - and for good reason. Gio was on the ice for a team high 11 scoring chances at ES and another 5 on the PP. That means, of the Flames 25 total chances, Giordano was out for more than half of them. Oh...and he scored the teams only goal. It was mentioned he's the only Flames defenseman to score a goal in the last 10 games as well. His cap hit is 892k. Of course, it's probably safe to say that Sutter is probably putting him in a situation where he can succeed (a la Iggy and Jokinen), but good value nonetheless.
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Hi Kent,
About this:
The first line did play well at even-strength, however, even though they saw a lot of Crosby. I think Brent Sutter has reversed his earlier tendency of sending out Olli and Jarome for own-zone draws which saw them drowning in both pools and puddles in October/November. So while they are still seeing some of the other team’s better players, they often begin the shift with the high-ground, which helps keep them from spending their time chasing the puck around the defensive zone.
I didn’t really see it this way, by my eye Iginla was getting leaned on to take Crosby on in the DEF zone and did a superb job (especially in the first period). Of course I was only watching in fits and bursts, so I wanted to check.
I putzed around with TimeOnIce, to see if Vic had updated his ZoneStart scripts (mine is not working atm and it takes more effort to use it anyway), and lo and behold he did!
Check it out:
http://timeonice.com/faceoffs0910.php?gamenumber=20691
Just a weird-ass night, and I really have to double-check these numbers because they are so far off from the shots and chances. But if it’s correct, then Iggy and friends were actually leaned on to drive possession all the way from the defensive zone, and they did it superbly, and against Crosby to boot. Another dominant performance from the captain, I really hope it was injury that was holding him back for a year and a half.
For shits and giggles, the ZoneStart from the VAN game:
http://timeonice.com/faceoffs0910.php?gamenumber=20670
The entire team was generating zone time, and the OFF zone starts are evenly split between the top two lines. Iginla’s unit still led the team in possession and against the Sedins to boot.
I’m really happy this script is up and running, using my program to generate these numbers was a real pain in the ass (time consuming and a bit clunky).
Just a weird-ass night, and I really have to double-check these numbers because they are so far off from the shots and chances.
I should clarify, by this I mean, why was Kipper on the ice for 2 more DEF zones than OFF zones (at EV) when he was also on the ice for 10 chances against and 18 chances for (at EV)? I suppose it could be because we were dominant on the cycle, maybe we weren’t generating many stoppages in play? I don’t quite remember, I do recall though that Fleury had to stop a ton of rebounds.
using my program to generate these numbers was a real pain in the ass
Did you try to create a program to try to emulate the data on timeonice?
by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 14, 2010 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
Kind of. I have a program that parses the game sheets from all of last season and I can probably do it for 07/08 as well as what has transpired from 09/10. It’s all still raw data though, nothing as comprehensive as TimeOnIce or BehindTheNet.
Still it’s nice to have the raw data at one’s fingertips even though I never have time to do anything with it these days (literally takes hours to make code changes and create scripts that pump out useful data like ZoneStart, that Vic already has up and running).
Good stuff. I was reaching to explain why Iginla has gone from terrible to effective at the same job in the space of two months, but I guess I was wrong. Glad you found out how to get that app working.
That is a strange face-off count considering the Flames territorial dominance. Also, it looks like the Pengs big boys were starting out in their own end a lot too: of the 14 O-zone draws they had, Crosby was out for 5 of them and Malkin out for 3. Other items of interest:
Bouwmeester and Giordano faced Crosby the most of the Flames defenders. He had that one goal against them, but otherwise they did pretty bloody well. They also started in their own zone WAY more than Phaneuf but had better scoring chance and corsi rates. That said, they also started on the offensive zone more.
A bit off topic, but this script corroborates everything I was saying in the other thread about the Sedins. Check out how the Sedins were used in thier losses to Nashville and Minny:
Nashville: http://www.timeonice.com/faceoffs0910.php?gamenumber=20678
Minny: http://www.timeonice.com/faceoffs0910.php?gamenumber=20689
Note especially the Nashville zonestart splits. Sedins got 9 OFF zone faceoffs to 1 DEF zone faceoffs! Burrows did not even see a single DEF zone faceoff! Is it any wonder that they’re scoring at the rate they are?
Meanwhile Kesler is taking a huge defensive load, he should really be in contention for the Selke again, as much as he also deserves the anti-Lady Byng. Also I suspect Vigneault is getting orders from on high, it is Kesler’s contract year after all and it will be easier to sign him for cheap if he doesn’t put up big points.
Wow. Can’t really argue with the results though.
Kesler is an absolute fiend. Also, how nice would it be if Boyd took the sort of step forward Raymond did in the space of a summer?
by Kent Wilson on Jan 14, 2010 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
I was just thinking that the other day. Seems like they both have similar skill-sets. But MayRay has just been a better fit in the Canucks situation. Boyd just doesnt seem to have a niche yet. At best, he is a second line centre, but so is Langkow. He disrupts what should be a solid third line in Glencross/Moss/Conroy, he is too good to be playing with the Prusts, McGrattons et al… On the other hand, I have no real opinion on what his abilities as a winger could lead to. Seems to me that he isn’t that much worse than Dawes (if at all), but Dawes has received much more of a chance to succeed than Boyd. Someone of Dawes’ ilk would strike me as a penalty killier/get-the-odd-goal-at-even-strength kind of guy, but he was thrust directly into a top 6 role at game 1. Is the waiver-wire pickup Dawes really that much of an upgrade over one of the few prospects to emerge from the Flames’ system in the last few years? It’s hard to say. I don’t really understand why Boyd hasn’t been able to seize a definite role on the team, whether it is as a valid top 6 scorer, or a solid bottom 6 PK/defensive specialist who chips in the odd bit of offense. It’s too bad he is still in such limbo right now, especially seeing how Raymond is flourishing as we speak.
by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 14, 2010 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
I would venture a guess it has to do with the fact that the smaller Dawes is able to take a hit, shelter the puck, and move into the zone without falling. I like Dawes in the top 6 better than Boyd, at least right now. That pass last night definitely helps seal it.
Yeah, I’m a big Boyd fan but he’s not up to snuff yet. I just hope the team doesn’t deal him only to see him become a capable top sixer somewhere else.
That’s my concern as well. But for whatever reason he seems to topple and always looks a bit shakey. Sometimes it just takes a few seasons to transfer to the NHL. Patrick Marleau is just now becoming a big threat player after how many seasons? Proof is in the pudding.
Haha how sweet would it be for Boyd to be the next Marleau. I guess we can dream
by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 14, 2010 4:16 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I do recall Kesler saying something to the effect of taking pay cuts to ensure the team stays competitive but man, I wouldn’t be suprised to see him getting a little frustrated at seeing Burrows’ success has a lot to do with circumstance, not natural ability…..
by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 14, 2010 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
It’s funny that Kesler and Burrows make themselves sound so much like team guys. Personally I think Burrows is overpaid by about $750K to $1M (Kent disagrees), and Kesler… well one has to laugh at his comments considering he previously signed an offer sheet with Philly that, while not exorbitant, forced the Canucks to pay him a lot more than they could have via his QO.
Regardless of whether or not they’re sincere when they talk about that stuff, I wish some of the Flames would’ve been better in that regard. By my amateur guess, I’d say 4 of the top 6 salaries on the Flames’ payroll has been overpaid for their performance this year (exceptions being Kipper and possibly Lanks).
by SmellOfVictory on Jan 14, 2010 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe this season, but when Iginla and Regehr signed they were widely considered hometown discounts, especially Iginla.
And I should add to this by saying that pretty much every big-money contract on the team is risk managed in terms of (real) length. Some of the real 10+ year contracts like DiPietro and Ovehckin are just time bombs waiting to happen (or have already exploded) and in those cases you can fault the GM years down the line for giving the player too much money for too long.
That is very true. He was a steal back when he was as close as you can get to being a literal one-man team, and unfortunately he’s having some issues of late, when he finally got some teammates who could help him out. Is Regehr really that cheap, though? Granted, he was a fantastic defensive defenseman, but I thought the next pay grade up only came with offensive ability (a la what JBo was supposed to bring, but I don’t think has delivered to the the extent that his contract would imply). I do agree that long contracts are pretty rough stuff in a lot of cases – for the most part I’d say they’re primarily beneficial to the team when used to lock up young players at a good rate (especially when coaches believe the player will improve significantly), and in most other cases aren’t a great choice.
by SmellOfVictory on Jan 14, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
the 4-5 pairing posts a 19-4 scoring chance count together (playing mostly against crosby) and both goes -2, figures.
if they play like this for the rest of the campaign i will not complain
crosby.
They were well in the black in terms of corsi as well.
by Kent Wilson on Jan 14, 2010 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
Two games in a row now where the Flames were easily the better team with little to show for it (or in last night’s case, nothing). These are the kind of games that frustrate me the most…when the Flames play great but the opposing goalie stands on his head. I guess the most frustrating thing about last night’s game is that Fleury has been terrible as of late, so the fact that he decided he was going to be “on” last night was all the more annoying. One thing I’ve been noticing is that the bounces and such lately seem to be going against the Flames a whole lot more often than they are in favor of them. Obviously the Flames need to continue playing like they have been because only good things can come from it, though I’m sure frustration must be pretty high for the whole team at this point. As long as they keep it up I’m sure they will break out of the funk eventually (hopefully starting with Nashville tomorrow).
Flamesland is melting down if you pay attention to the local media. I don’t blame them per se, it’s pretty clear that some players have a higher natural finishing ability and therefore it is probably intuitive to assume that not finishing your chances is somehow all your fault.
But I hope M&G remains a saner place. In the spirit of that, I’ll just link the a couple of Mudcrutch articles which compellingly suggest that the variation of the percentages is natural and reverting to the mean is also natural:
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=2987
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=2996
I actually view this as the inverse wave of what the team rode in October – the variance goblins snatched a lot of goals and a lot of points from the maw of defeat for Calgary during that stretch (somewhat in November too) and regression to the mean suggests you’re going to have to pay that debt eventually. The good news is the team is playing well enough to assuage the damage to a degree right now. When that doesn’t happen, you’re team looks utterly hopeless and you end up firing you coach for no good reason.
I only hope the Flames are playing this well when they come out the other end of this cold spell.
It comes down to Iginla I think. This difference is almost entirely his doing, you can see it in the way that the top line performance remained the same when Lanks switched off for Jokinen. Also it’s how it plays out on the ice, Iggy’s winning battles, moving off the half-wall while evading defenders and strongly driving the net.
Also this is something you’ve been talking about all season Kent, the top line drives results. You see the degree that we’re outchancing our opposition now that the top line is playing well, to the degree we were outchancing when our depth was playing well… the difference is unreal. The game is really won and lost in those fifteen or sixteen minutes.
This is why I really want to know if Iggy was injured last year, and I’m hoping someone will ask Sutter this afternoon. In fact since I’m not going to be there, I humbly request to your readers that one of them who is going to this event ask the $64 question: was Iginla injured last season and the start of this season?
Which is not to say that depth isn’t important, you do need adequate-to-good depth at every position to counteract the other team’s depth players and to load the dice further in your favor.
But if you don’t have a group of forwards than can play with the best, then you have nothing.
Pretty much. I’d almost written this team off after the first 30 games when Iginla and Jokinen were the worst two players on the club at ES. This rehabilitation is encouraging and makes me think an additional top sixer can actually put the team closer to elite territory *(rather than simply help them survive).
The anxiety may just be: what’s wrong with David Moss?
Yup yup, Iggy and Jokinen were a black hole of suck. Although your chance count suggested Iggy was on the right side of the puck more often despite being put in a tougher role – combined that suggested that Jokinen was the weak link.
I still want Jokinen on the second line or lower. Not because of the two penalties or anything, but because I can see Iggy is the one steering the bus through this U-turn AND Langkow is still the better centre AND Bourque can drive results too. Iggy-in-his-prime could play with (almost) anyone against anyone, but that doens’t mean it’s a good idea to make the Iggy-of-now do so.
WI is going to that session and is taking question requests at her place.
However, Iginla was asked point-blank by Peter Mahr in a post-season interview last year if he played injured. He said “I understand why you’re asking, but no. No I wasn’t.” So take that for what it’s worth.
apparently they’re broadcasting the audio on fan960 and the video on fan960.com…. like i said, i’m not a huge question asker but we’ll see how we go….
by walkinvisible on Jan 14, 2010 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
Also you bring up a good point, the Flames of October 09 were burying their shots like Lemieux in his prime, surely the people who are complaining about our “skill level” now would stop to question why it was posible that these grinding goons and stonehanded muckers could score like the best offensive player in the history of history?
Alternative explanation: roster changes. Lundmark is now on the team, he is such a cancer that he even drives the players who don’t even play on his line to such distraction that they can’t bury even one of their dizzying array of chances.
Of course Lundmark is simulataneously invaluable to the team, he is the key cog that makes Iginla and Jokinen tick. So it’s a bit of a conundrum.
Sane? Sane? How can I stay sane when clearly the Flames need 20 shots to score one goal and they are all muckers who can’t finish and noone on that team has any talent and they’re going to self destruct now and they are failing on purpose and they are all overpaid (excpet Gio of course) and we need Kristian Huselius and ohmygod we might as well give up. Sane?
Now I feel better…
My personal measurement for how I feel about watching Flames is how much of the game I fast forward when I watch it tape-delayed. Earlier this year, there were games they were down 2-1 that I hardly watched the 3rd period (and even in 3x speed never saw the puck leave their zone for more than a few seconds). I watched last night’s game right to the end. I’m not sure what that means, but I think I’m encouraged!
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