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Around SBN: When Dwyane Wade Lost His Cool

Flames Game Day: More Power

 


Pengrowth Saddledome

7:30 PM MT

Opposition: PensBurgh

TV: TSN



I can't say I was all that disappointed with the game Calgary played on Monday. When a team loses a game featuring a million saves, a seeing-eye shot and the skills competition, it's more to do with poor fortune than any other factors, and that was the case against Colorado. Tonight, the champs are passing through on a rare visit, so we not only get to see some terrific players, but a good team that's struggled on the PP more often than the Flames, hard as that may be to believe.

Star-divide

 

The reuniting of Iginla and Jokinen has, to my surprise, not sucked. They couldn't score for the life of them the last two outings, but that's not because the right things aren't mostly occurring. The captain has been very good in particular, and continuing that sort of play will pay off at some point. They'll likely have another outing with Jamie Lundmark, as his faux demotion designed to facilitate some roster juggling has ended.

That means the Dawes-Langkow-Bourque trio are back in play, and a team with Pittsburgh's quality down the middle will be a proper examination for the Flames' best players. Bourque has the hot stick at the moment with goals in three games running. BTN suggests that Jordan Staal is getting the second tier comp, so if that holds, he would be Langkow's match-up, but I wouldn't be surprised if things are changed by the Pens for tonight since they appear to be tinkering with their lines.

On the off-chance that Bylsma leaves Staal playing against the Flame top-six, Malkin would work versus the third line. That would seem to be a dangerous proposition, even with the reigning Art Ross and Conn Smythe winner in a nine game goal scoring drought. I don't know if Conroy is a go, but I'd have a bit more faith in him working with Glencross and Moss in that scenario than Boyd or Nystrom. 

 

The blue is down a body, with Staffan Kronwall clearing waivers. The overall play of the defence has been pretty solid the last few games, with good forward support aiding matters. Cory Sarich and Adam Pardy should be a very good third pair, and they've certainly looked the part as of late. If Sutter decides at some point to use Sarich with Bouwmeester, I'd expect nothing less than excellence from Giordano in that sort of role. Darryl Sutter wanted a team with quality depth on the back end, and with all the bodies finally healthy, we might get a better idea as to whether he has the mix just right. 

 

Miikka Kiprusoff will go again, and barring something odd, McElhinney will get another airing in California Sunday or Monday. Kipper wasn't bad against the Avs, with the Stewart goal simply being another of those ridiculous moments against Colorado. I'd suspect he'll need to be a-one this evening.

 

The Penguins are in the midst of a rather blah period on their part, most recently falling victim to the Guillaume Latendresse juggernaut. Aside from a win over the sad-sack Leafs, they've been on the wrong end of some high scores recently, as Marc-Andre Fleury has struggled badly this year with a .911 EV SV%. That's lousy, to be blunt, and continues an alarming EV SV% trend for the Olympian:

07/08 .940 

08/09 .922 

09/10 .911

That doesn't make him a write-off, of course, as Miikka Kiprusoff has demonstrated this year. Maybe they should hire Noodles? As for the rest of the Pens, as mentioned, Evgeni Malkin hasn't scored since filling his hat two nights before Christmas against the Senators, going -8 in the process. He's shooting under 8% for the year. I hope it lasts at least one more night. Sidney Crosby has been excellent as usual, with a chance at 50 goals for the first time in his career. I'd like him to save a few for the last two weeks of February if he doesn't mind. On the injury front, Chris Kunitz is out for 4-6 weeks after abdominal surgery and Brooks Orpik is day-to-day with some sort of lower body ailment.

 

Both of these teams have been dreadful on the PP. Pittsburgh is running at a smooth 14.3%, which is good for 29th in the league, and Calgary's struggles when up a man have been well-documented around these parts. Both teams have the same positive 5 v 5 F/A ratio, and both have been able to kill penalties at an acceptable rate. Calgary's keys to any sort of success have to include getting something with the extra man and keeping the Penguins down in their own PP ditch.

 

Game time is 7:30 MT on TSN. 

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On PP scoring – looks like it’s mainly a percentages thing for the Pens. According to Hockey Numbers, they are the 4th best team in the league at generating shots with the man advantage (58.7/60). The Flames, on the other hand, are 27th (46.3/60).

by Kent Wilson on Jan 13, 2010 1:38 PM PST reply actions  

Maybe. If you buy JavaGeek’s SQF numbers, it looks like the Penguins are volume shooters from longer distances on the PP, at least more than most teams.

I don’t know if they completely hold up, but if they’re even a rough measure of things, Colorado’s success is explained more easily. Best PP SQF and 4th best EV SQF. You’ll notice that the Flames not only don’t generate shots at EV, their EV SQF is DFL.

by Robert Cleave on Jan 13, 2010 3:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Indeed. Although, sheer volume pretty overwhelms their apparently good work – despite favorable SQ measures, they still tie for last in the league in terms of expected GD.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 13, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Oui. It was more the Flames’ terrible numbers that concerned me, to be honest. It’s one thing to take a small hit on the volume side for better quality, but not many shots and long distances isn’t a very good mix. That’s why I hope the current trend of increased shot volume isn’t a mirage. Kipper would have had to end the season with a sub-2 GA and a SV% in the .930s for the Flames to make the playoffs at the rate things were going through Christmas. He might have pulled it off, but I’d really rather not find out.

by Robert Cleave on Jan 13, 2010 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

For sure. Flames have been digging themselves out of a big hole recently. The fact that the corsi numbers have reformed while the shots numbers still lags probably puts some meet on that low shots as % of corsi thing we were talking about.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 13, 2010 4:41 PM PST up reply actions  

so orpik is out? that helps, he’s a rock.

prediction: flames 3 (iginla, conroy, bouwmeester) pens 4 (crosby, letang, gonchar x 2)

by shep_ on Jan 13, 2010 3:55 PM PST reply actions  

You want to talk consipracy...

…have any of you ever wondered how the Pens pulled off so many #1 and #2 draft picks and also won the wacky CROSBY LOTTERY!!!! Fleury, Staal, Malkin, Crosby (and that’s not including Whitney)…these are all guys they acquired through something that’s supposed to be based on odds. Yeah I know they were bad…but they were also a franchise that was on the brink of moving (possibly because of someone Bettman hates…you all know his name) and was heavily indebted to one of the NHL’s stars, Super Mario. Before you all get mad at the NHL for the whole Auger fiasco, how about a fabricated Stanley Cup team? The fact they won the Crosby lottery is the craziest thing though…what were the odds!! Anyways, for this reason I dislike this team about as much as I dislike the Blackhawks and its not a Canucks/Oilers dislike…its more a disgust. I hope the Flames win then tonight…cause losing will suck that much more.

Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.

by KingJafi on Jan 13, 2010 4:17 PM PST reply actions  

The nearly bankrupt team in danger of winning the lottery is an old and popular conspiracy, that is for certain. Not as bad or obvious as the NBA ensuring Ewing went to New York, however.

As to the rest, Bobby Clarke, I believe, whined the best about how much he hated tanking as a rebuilding strategy. Then again, the Pens have three cups in the last 20 years while the Flyers are approaching the four decade mark themselves in terms of championship droughts.

by Resolute on Jan 13, 2010 4:32 PM PST up reply actions  

err… “the nearly bankrupt team in danger of relocating winning the lottery…”

by Resolute on Jan 13, 2010 4:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah but the Ewing lottery is one year…do you know the odds of hitting all the picks these guys hit over those year….and add to that the odds of winning the crosby lottery. That’s why I can believe the NBA when the Knicks won cause its one isolated incident or when the Magic got back to back #1 and one of them with one ball…that’s legitimately winning the odds. But Pittsburgh beat the odds too much for me to seriously believe it was all a roll of a dice.

Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.

by KingJafi on Jan 13, 2010 5:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Shit I never knew that about the Magic.

You’re right, the draft lottery in 2005 seems awfully fishy to me. Looks like Calgary got jobbed as the lowest seed for teams with 2 balls. Ditto for the Rangers (and maybe even the Sabres) for teams with 3 balls. Cute how MTL, OTT and VAN finished so high as well.

by Rod Blogojevich on Jan 13, 2010 6:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah the Magic picked Shaquille O’Neal and then picked Chris Webber the next year and traded him on draft night for Penny Hardaway. The NBA changed the lottery after that to guarantee that the 3 worst teams at least get one of the top 5 picks. In turn a team like the Magic with one ball and barely in the lottery could only compete for the top 3 spots, if not they drop to their original ranking…so the could never get the 4th pick for example.

As for the Crosby draft, I remember reading all the factors that determined the number of balls, and franchise success in the last decade played a large part. I was surprised at the chances the Flames were given in that draft given they had only made the playoffs once in the last decade. Something was super shady about that lottery. Oh well its in the past I guess.

Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.

by KingJafi on Jan 13, 2010 6:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Canucks down 2-0 early.

-Colin

by Colin S on Jan 13, 2010 4:23 PM PST reply actions  

ditto

Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.

by KingJafi on Jan 13, 2010 5:49 PM PST up reply actions  

2-2 after 2 :/

-Colin

by Colin S on Jan 13, 2010 5:49 PM PST up reply actions  

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