One Dimensional Forward Auction - Now Accepting Offers For Ilya Kovalchuk
by Kent Wilson on Jan 11, 2010 12:48 PM PST
55 comments
Bird Watchers Anonymous is hosting a faux auction for soon-to-be-ex Thrasher Ilya Kovalchuk. All the partner blogs around the network are proffering their hypothetical packages and I figured it would be a fun exercise to engage in here.
Just to set things up:
Why would the Flames want him? Great natural goal-scorer, excellent PP producer. Kovalchuk is indifferent in his own end and probably can't take on other teams best players at ES, but it's hard to argue against his goal scoring abilities. Obviously his strengths would fill a couple of glaring weaknesses the club has currently. He could also be hidden on a line with Langkow and Bourque fairly easily I think.
Potential Problems? Flames don't have a lot of draft picks to offer and seeing as Kovalchuk will likely demand a salary above and beyond his actual worth, he'd likely end up as an expensive rental. In addition, it's hard to imagine Sutter putting up with his lax defensive play.
Anyways, here's the rules/asking price according to Matt Gunning:
- This offer is for Kovalchuk and his expiring contract (cap hit: $6.389M) only. No secondary Atlanta players/picks to be included in the deal.
- The Flames would also be acquiring the first right to sign him prior to July 1st.
- No sign-and-trade proposals.
- A roster player(s)
- Quality prospect(s)
- Conditional first-round pick(s) if Kovalchuk re-signs with your team
- No goaltenders (though the Markstrom Effect may carry some weight)
- No one over 33 years old, nor "bloated" contracts (the Cats have very few of either)
Easy enough. From a Flames perspective, the roster player would likely be a defender. I'll say Cory Sarich.
Quality prospect? That's an issue for the Flames. Does Kris Chucko count?
The conditional first rounder for re-signing isn't an issue since we can safely say the Flames wouldn't be bringing Kovi back.
So, would Sarich+Chucko get it done? Further, would you trade those two guys for a Kovalchuk rental? Uhhhh....
I think this excerise shows the Flames most certainly won't be in the market for Kovalchuk come March, but I'd be interested in hearing your potential offers anyways. In fact, once all the offers are in, I'll submit the "winning" one to Bird Watchers Anonymous.
0 recs |
55 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Chucko is too weak alone with Sarich… You’d have to add Backlund, considering a team like LA would be able to offer some very good prospects at a similar level to Ilya. Although I doubt they trade anyone, Lombardi will probably be patient and let th team develop before he contemplates selling the farm for a playoff run, but regardless, LA has a deep prospect pool, they are going to get real good fast. Wouldn’t mind trading Phaneuf, but Kovalchuk would be gone by summer, although clearing Dion would open some cap space to get a Dan Hamuis… You’re right, Kent. This won’t happen, especially after trading for Jokinen last deadline.
But if Sutter goes off the deep end and makes a run at Kovy, I’d say he would have to offer Sarich, Backlund and a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Then again, that may be way too much for Waddell considering how little leverage he has here. Going to be interesting to see what happens!
I know the first went to Phoenix, but I forget what happened to the second?
by Ken Williams on Jan 11, 2010 1:22 PM PST up reply actions
They may accept Sarich and a top prospect (Backlund, likely, or perhaps another on the blue line like Erixon), but that won’t be the best offer. Perhaps Boyd plus Sarich, or Boyd instead of Sarich (as much as I like Boyd, I’m not sure he’ll ever be a top-6 forward – he’s got great skills, but not enough of the total package. Actually, a lot like Lombardi.)
Not sure I want Kovalchuk, to be honest.
Me neither. The thing with these type of high profile trade deadline acquisitions is you almost alwasy end up paying more than you should for them. Right Olli Jokinen?
That said, it’s a fun excercise.
Yeah that’s the thing- whatever Calgary offers is unlikely to be the best offer
by Ken Williams on Jan 11, 2010 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
I’d want Kovalchuk… that guys a wizard with the puck. The Flames don’t have enough to get him though since I’d be unwilling to part with any decent prospects (‘cause there are not enough of them to begin with), nor draft picks (also not enough to begin with). But if we simply must then I would go with Olli Jokinen, Cory Sarich, Kris Chucko, and Columbas’s third round draft pick this year… then I feel the bitter sting of being laughed at because it’s such a pathetic offer.
At that price, I’d want to pay to keep him (and tell Atlanta to forget the conditional first rounder, they don’t have enough leverage to ask for that).
It could always be a later first rounder I suppose, but I’m given the dearth of picks/prospects in the system, the Flames should probably hang onto those.
The real issue, however, would be Kovalchuk’s next contract. The guy is a good scorer and PP producer, but he isn’t much in the way of a ES outscorer because he’s so feeble defensively. Paying a lot of money for a player like that is a bad idea in a capped environment.
Considering that the only one of those guys that’s signed beyond this season is Sarich and it doesn’t involve a decent prospect (depending on how you rate Chucko) or top 60 draft pick I’d say that it’s probably worse then many offers they’ll get.
I also think more highly of Kovelchuk then most though.
Actually, you ought to submit Riley Grantham & Brian McGrattan. and the rights to Daniel Ryder… Just for giggles.
no idea what he looks like this year but last year, ryley grantham had some value for sure. a goon who can score ? bring it.
by walkinvisible on Jan 11, 2010 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
sure he can. he scored at least two clutch goals for the rockets last year.
;)
by walkinvisible on Jan 11, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions
I think we need all the draft picks we can get but if anything has shown this team is built by trades and through free agency. But it would hard to believe not giving up a first round pick and what makes it even less likely is that the first rounder won’t be this year.
The only major player I could see getting dealt is Phaneuf he’s still young and has years left on his contract but Sutter will refuse to deal him. So I’m gonna go and say the chances of any Ilya deal is slim to none because we’ve made our bed and now we have to sleep in it.
Poor drafting and bad signings have hurt this team from not getting a player of his caliber. That’s why I player like Ray Whitney would be just fine by me come March 1st or whatever.
30 years of the NHL's Best Hockey, It got us through some tough times.
I’m as hard on Dion Phaneaf as anyone but even I wouldn’t trade him for Kovalchuk unless it was for a signed Kolalchuk (and then depending on signed for how much). And then I’d tell them to forget about the prospect or draft pick.
Exactly but it should free up some space so we can go and try sign Kovalchuk with not bringing back Jokinen and possibly Rene Bourque sadly.
But if I could pick between Bourque or Kovalchuk it would be Ilya even though Rene is quickly becoming my favorite player.
So here is my trade too bad Capgeek’s trade machine isn’t working so I don’t know what the cap effects would be
To Atlanta
D: Dion Phaneuf
F: Dustin Boyd
F: Micheal Backlund (Prospect)
CBJ 3rd Round Pick
To Calgary
F: Ilya Kovalchuk
That’s about what I’d expect it to take on Ilya and have an opportunity to sign him.
30 years of the NHL's Best Hockey, It got us through some tough times.
Haha as I see more proposals come I shudder to think of the Flames 3-4 years from now
by Ken Williams on Jan 11, 2010 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
It’s a sad reality we must deal with but like said in a previous comment this team has survived on trades and free agency and it’s not our problem that the team hasn’t really seen a GM of high standing since Cliff Fletcher although it was Al Coates that gave us a young hyped prospect in Jarome Iginla for disgruntled Joe Nieuwendyk.
Sorry Darryl you’re a better coach.
30 years of the NHL's Best Hockey, It got us through some tough times.
Does anyone follow ATL that much? BTN suggests Kovalchuk’s playing the toughest minutes of all the RWs on ATL, of course he’s drowning with the minutes. Which jives, Kovalchuk will naturally draw tough opposition (based on his scoring talent) but he looked totally lost when he played us.
Of course BTN also lists ATL with 6 centres so it’s highly possible that there’s a guy on their team playing RW who’s playing tougher minutes than Kovy. Which makes him look even worse.
In any case, big NO to Kovalchuk from me, for many reasons. He can score but it’s highly debatable whether he can help us win games. And beyond that, the price to acquire him can be spent on better bets (I don’t know if Boston would do a Phaneuf for Bergeron swap, likely not but that type of trade would be awesome), and any team that re-signs him to his demands may very well be fucked for the next 3+ seasons. What’s that Moneyball line? You can always recover from the guy you didn’t sign, but you can never recover from the guy you signed to the wrong price.
For instance (and it’s moot now but go with me here) if they actually did Phaneuf for Heatley this summer that would probably have been a better trade than anything for Kovalchuk. Of course I didn’t even give serious consideration to a Phaneuf for Heatley swap knowing our GM, plus the benchmark for a Heatley trade package at the time was the EDM package which was probably lower value than Phaneuf.
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3171
This is a post that nails it for me I think. For some reason Kovalchuk doesn’t appear on the list but BTM lists him as an elite EV scorer (in the range of 2.7 ES points / 60 ) but still a minus in 07/08 and 08/09. MC’s list only has two minuses on his list of elite scorers. He doesn’t go into icetime or context or goaltending or whatnot but what you might gather (what I did gather, anyway) is that for Kovalchuk to be a minus among this list of suggests he gives back more than the “average” elite scorer, if you will.
Which is all well and good, he might still help teams win but there are better bets and Calgary, with its budget neir the ceiling and its need for forward difference-makers, can’t afford to make a bad one. Hell I’d argue no team can afford to make a bad bet at the forward position when so much money is on the line.
I imagine a large chunk of that has to do with playing on Atlanta. I’m not saying Kovalchuk is a good defensive player, but playing on that sort of team is going to kill the differential a fair bit.
by SmellOfVictory on Jan 11, 2010 4:43 PM PST up reply actions
I agree (up to a point). I’d point to goaltending first, the goaltending situation in ATL seems iffy with Kari Whatsisface injured so often. Contrarian Goaltender likes him a TON but he doesn’t play full seasons.
Then team next, I dunno who Kovalchuk plays with, that cast of characters in ATL has a few gems (Reasoner, Armstrong) but on the whole doesn’t look so impressive.
Finally competition, Kovalchuk must attract tough comp at least half the time just because he’s fricking Ilya Kovalchuk.
Still, his role is to score (Anderson would be stupid not to try and get him some soft icetime) and so when he gives back so much it points to a disconnect between his offense and his contribution to winning.
if you consider that darryl gave up lombo, vandy & a first rounder for OLLI JOKINEN, you gotta think that atlanta will want equivalent compensation (albeit that olli was signed for a year)….
personally, i like the way daz has been spending the good money on scouting and landing guys like bourque and glenX for pennies. it seems the way to go. rich peverley on waivers was a steal for atl.
ok so the idea of getting Kovalchuck is all shiny and appealling but knowing sutter there is no way we get a player of his ilk. Though it would be nice to throw iggy out there against the tough comp. and let kovy feast on second-tier comp. The idea of having two offensive studs on the flames is just foreign to me…but for the fun of it I would give up Dion Phanuef, Kris Chucko and a conditional 2010 3rd round pick and then pray to god that he resigns. Dion seems to continue to have really high value around the league and would be a face to the franchise to replace Kovalchuck in ATL…
If ATL allowed talks to open up with kovalchuck before the trade about resigning and liked these pieces I would say we have enough top-tier defensive prospects coming up to replace dion. and having a solid d-core + plus a strong top six forwards is more likely to lead to playoff success than where we are at now… unless Iggy plays like he did against Vancouver on saturday every night…it was nice to see that EV Strength beast again
Pass
It’s fun in fantasy, but there is no way we should even consider giving up the assets it would take to trade for him, especially since he isn’t worth nearly what he is demanding financially. So yeah, you can just call me a party pooper. ;)
Same. Adding Iggy’s 50 goals to Kovalchuk’s 50 goals sounds fun but that will never never ever happen in reality.
I think Kovalchuk could be a useful player, but he has to be carefully managed. Adding for, say, 4M-5M would probably make sense. However, trading a boatload of assets + having to re-sign him for $7M doesn’t make sense.
The absolute max. contract a team Calgary could sign him for is Phaneuf’s salary slot, because they have too many other issues that need to addressed, like Bourque or another center for next year. They don’t have the assets anyway, since I suspect that the Thrashers are looking for young forwards. Kozlov is about done, Todd White is getting there, and added to that is that the FA forward pool for next year is pretty shallow. They’d have an easier road to a fix if they acquired their future scorers via a Kovalchuk move, then added a useful UFA defenceman. They need a decent goalie as well, but those guys can be found for cheapish, unless you’re Steve Tambellini.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 11, 2010 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
He has world class offense, and he’d probably be fun to watch (which is important I think). The problem for me is he appears to give back more than he creates, which is unfathomable to me. How can a guy who can create and finish like Kovy can give back so many goals so consistently? Even with shitty goaltending, he has to have a hand in that.
And BTN suggests he gets tough minutes but he has to be getting manipulated into a few soft shifts here and there, so the fact that his results across the board (except for points) are so bad, makes him looks even worse. That’s why I wonder if he actually helps Atlanta win.
I hear what you’re saying though, he most certainly would contribute offense and the right mix of linemates and superb coaching may make up for his deficiencies. And he would help our anemic PP (and oh sweet Lord does it need help), although I’m not certain of the degree he would help since I couldn’t imagine Sutter using Kovy on the point where he has enjoyed all of his PP success in ATL.
All sorts of red flags though, and this is where the risk management aspect of GMing comes into play. I am afraid that he’d come in and be like Jokinen, all sizzle no steak. And you just know that if he was resigned it’d be for the max Sutter term of 6 years, so we as fans would suffer for a long long time.
Most of the comments agree that the Flames shouldn’t be interested in Kovalchuk based on current conditions, costs, etc. I’m curious how the fan bases of other blogs (or the writers) are reacting. It will be interesting to see the result of the best trade that Atlanta will get, through the fan’s eyes.
Oh, this is for an inter-blog thing! OK I’ll bite. This is what we know:
- ATL is not in a position of strength, everyone knows the contract talks have stalled and they have no money.
- Kovalchuk is an expiring contract.
- Calgary has very few “quality prospects” in terms of exciting your average fan base.
So we trade expiring contract (Jokinen) for expiring contract (Kovalchuk) and then a reasonable thing to add on top of that might be a cheap quality forward (Bourque) similar to what they got for Hossa, and one of our better prospects (Nemisz let’s say).
Kovalchuk
for
Jokinen, Bourque, Nemisz
I would never do this trade, not in a milliion bajillion years, but it’s a package that makes fiscal sense for both sides and since we are Calgary fans (and therefore more than a bit biased towards the worth of our own players) we have to put more into what we’re giving the other team to balance out value in reality.
the really good point you make here is that i doubt we’d be able to take on kovi’s contract (cap-wise) without losing a guy of similar financial worth (ie: joker/dion). the cheap quality forward in bourque, however, probably wouldn’t fly if he’s UFA this summer as well.
kent ? check your email.
by walkinvisible on Jan 11, 2010 5:39 PM PST up reply actions
I would firebomb Sutter’s office then fling myself off of the Saddledome if the Flames made that trade.
Not to knock your reasoning or anything, but….shudder.
I assume it’s the “Bourque” part that you object to, eh?
Fair enough, unfortunately you have to give to get (and I say this while also conceding that I don’t think we are “getting” anything with Kovalchuk… but I’m also wrong a lot of the time)
I agree that we’re biased towards the worth of our players; however, don’t you think other hockey people are aware of Bourque’s value? I don’t think you’d have to include someone of Bourque’s quality in this trade – perhaps, Boyd instead of Bourque. Joker, Boyd, Nemisz…I’d never make that trade either, but that’s reasonable too, no?
If the trade is Joker, Boyd, Nemisz, and I am Sutter (I wish!) then I probably do that deal right away. Given how Boyd is being used right now on the Flames depth chart, and given how Jokinen has underperformed despite getting somewhat easier minutes than Iginla, then (I believe) this trade is a no brainer that is a good bet to make the team better for this year. And of course this is contingent on not resigning Kovalchuk, I don’t like the idea of leaning on him to be a difference maker when Iginla hits 35.
Of course the fact that I (as a Calgary fan) do the deal right away tips me off that it might not be the fairest trade for ATL. I’m operating on the principle of “you have to give to get”.
I used to live in the SE Division, and so I saw ATL play WAS multiple times a year. My thoughts on Kovalchuk are as follows:
1. The man is an absolute offensive force, just starting his prime.
2. Despite lack of willingness to backcheck, he is a leader on and off the ice.
3. He has that singular ability to change a game in a single shift.
4. He hasn’t had a proper “1st line” in years. Seriously, Afinogenov and Antropov are 2nd liners at best, but playing with him their games have been incredibly elevated.
That said, if we want to make a playoff run this year, we need to pull a trigger on this trade- we need that offense so much. Now, regardless of the auction (because it’ll get silly and out of hand) what should the Flames offer? Phaneuf will likely be enough for ATL. Young D who hits, scores, has personality, dates a semi-celebrity (I think they watch 24 in ATL) and still has decent upside as well as top pairing ability?
No way ATL DOESN’T take that. And the fact is, we’re nearing a logjam in defense, with all those prospects being (God willing) just a couple years away from NHL ready and still rocking basically 3 top pair defensemen.
John Buccigross is doing what each team might give up for Kovalchuk and this is what he has for the Flames and I’d be happy if it was just this.
Proposed trade: Kovalchuk and a conditional draft pick for Dion Phaneuf (and if Kovalchuk leaves, the Flames get the Thrashers’ first-round pick)
Phaneuf would be a great fit in Atlanta. The Thrashers need a high-minute guy who is physical to go with Ron Hainsey, Zach Bogosian and Tobias Enstrom. Kubina will come off the books after this season, and his cap number is only $1.5 million lower than Phaneuf’s. Even though the Thrashers might not get multiple players in a trade, the $8-9 million in cap space they would get from not having to pay Kovalchuk’s salary next year would equal one or two really good players. I would prefer a one-for-one trade involving an elite player to a bunch of stuff that looks good in print or on the Internet. And the Flames need help up front. I don’t see how they can come close to competing with the Hawks or a healthy Detroit team come the postseason. Or a team that acquires Kovalchuk.
30 years of the NHL's Best Hockey, It got us through some tough times.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on Matchsticks and Gasoline
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Northwest Standings
Flames Schedule
Next 5 Games
Vancouver
|
Tue 09/21 | 6:00 PM PDT |
|
@
Vancouver
|
Tue 09/21 | 7:00 PM PDT |
|
Tampa Bay
|
Sat 09/25 | 6:00 PM PDT |
|
Phoenix
|
Tue 09/28 | 6:00 PM PDT |
|
@
New York Islanders
|
Wed 09/29 | 5:00 PM PDT |
Last 5 Games
|
@
Vancouver
|
Sat 04/10 | L 3 - 7 |
|
Minnesota
|
Thu 04/08 | SO - L 1 - 2 |
|
San Jose
|
Tue 04/06 | L 1 - 2 |
|
@
Chicago
|
Sun 04/04 | L 1 - 4 |
|
@
Colorado
|
Fri 04/02 | W 2 - 1 |
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- In which former NHL coach Ken Hitchcock foils a shoplifter
- Montreal's Price talks new 2-year contract, expectations post-Halak
- Donald Fehr aware of Kovalchuk drama, mum on everything else
- Puck Headlines: Savard's agent rants on Bettman; Halak in Montreal
- Boudreau, Crawford placed on the coaching hot seat
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
