Forecasting the NW Division

Hard to argue with this, although I do think the Flames will win the division. I also think that Minnesota is going to be much closer to the top 2 than the bottom 2 and may squeeze into 2nd place in the division.

Thanks for putting the Wild at three. I think that’s where they finish, too. Most of the predictions I have read though, has them at 4, which is a joke.

I think you guys are being a bit hard on your home town team. The Flames are going to push the ’Nuckleheads for first. Believe me when I say that Wild fans have a much harder time watching our boys play the Flames than the ’Nucks. You guys have an amazing team, and while I would never admit it, I have a begrudging respect for everyone of the players on your squad.

Good luck this season boys and girls, I’m sure we’ll see you around.

I just want to see how the Canucks deal with the schedule around Olympic team.

This division is a coin toss between the Flames and the Canucks.

I picked the Flames to win the division in the poll based on three reasons:

First: I’m bias and therefore blind as a bat and dumb as a rock.

Second: I think the Canucks played closer to their ceiling last season than Calgary. IMO, it took the Flames to have disastrous seasons by their top flight leaders at each position, a slew of injuries and some untimely decisions by coaching/mngmt. I think Sutter has taken major steps to ensure that debacle doesn’t occur twice. Of course, Luongo was injured so maybe……..

Third: I think that depth favours the Flames. I don’t see that Vancouver did much to get better. They just took the necessary steps to remain very, very good for the long term. The Sedins, Luongo etc. Looking at their line-up, the key for me is Ohlund. I think he was hugely underrated and his departure makes the Canucks “d” worse than last year. Add to that, their propensity for injury and it’s dicey. Lastly, the forwards still look like a first line, Kesler, two thirds and a pugilist forth. Of course if Shirokov becomes the next Bure, I’m going to vomit.

I don’t think I’ll reflect on the Flames, as it really just comes down to players on this team getting back to earning their value. Very strong showings by Iginla, Jokinen, Phaneuf and Kipper combined with consistently good performances by Regher, Moss, Lankow and JBo and it really should be a five-seven point cushion. It also means beating the Canucks, which is key, and which hopefully starts tomorrow.

One last thing….(I guess I am reflecting on the Flames). The backup. McL is a huge key this season as well. I am from the camp that believes a back-ups role is to play well enough that the team wins (or doesn’t lose, whichever semantics you prefer). Like a relief pitcher in baseball, they are to come in and get the job done, no matter how it gets done. (Although, I’m only thinking in games he starts, not in relief) In other words, the backup, who often sees the weaker sisters of the league should really have better numbers (both sv% and w%) than the starter because of the usage he sees→ I’m looking at you McL. It’s not like Kipper set the bar high last year, is it?…903??.

We cannot have a situation where we put the kid in and think….“Oh no, McL is playing, well…. we’re in trouble.” If we are going to play Kipper less and McL gets 10-15 starts this year we need him to be better than good.

I agree with your marker Robert and I’ll put another out there. If McL ends the season with twice as many wins as loses (say 8-9 wins, as opposed to 1) the Flames win the division.

They aren’t quite as terrible as some precincts in the Oilogisphere might have you believe

Liar.

minus the “Damn Canucks” part. I really wanted to vote for fifth place though :-)

I’m not sure the Canucks D got any worse wth Ohlund gone, but the Flames D is noticeably scarier (from a ‘nuck perspective). There are a lot of "if’s" though with Calgary:

If Phaneuf plays better this season…
If Kipper bucks his stats trend of rising GAA and lowering sv%…
If Iggy can rebound after an off-year…
If Brent Sutter can implement his system with this group…

And probably a few others as well, though the same could be said of every team I guess.

It’s going to be good. Apologies in advance for ignorant drunken commenting tomorrow night.

The arrows are pointing in the Flames favor this year. Vancouver was mediocre at territorial play (negative shots +/-, negative Corsi) and benefited from high percentages from both ends of the ice. It’s possible Luongo sustains his 0.932 ES SV% but the odds are against Vancouver shooting 1% above league average at ES. A regression to the mean on 1700-odd shots (5on5) means 17 less goals scored. And heaven forbid if they have an unlucky year.

Meanwhile Kipper’s SV% is pretty much rock bottom. It’s entirely possible he regresses further but at that point I think Sutter would be forced to acquire a goalie who can provide replacement level goaltending (i.e. league average). Hell even five points below league average might be sufficient given how territorially dominant the Flames are.

Percentages are the reason that Montreal regressed last year and they are the reason that Vancouver will likely regress this year.