Pick your powerplay
The man advantage was one of the Flames weaknesses last year. Calgary's 17% success rate was good for 21st in the league. A median rate of 19% would have gotten the club 7 more goals for, probably one more win in the standings and a date with the St. Louis Blues instead of the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round.
The club was lackluster on the PP for a number of reasons: one, Dion Phaneuf was poor relative to his previous performances. He still generated a lot of shots, but rarely were they of the cannon-type he became known for through his first couple of seasons. He also had problems making plays at the blueline for whatever reason, resulting in more than a few SHG against. His step back was reflected in his 2.62 PPP/60 - a steep drop from his the 4+ average production he'd managed till this past season. To give that number context, Mike Green, Scott Niedermayer and Brian Rafalski all averaged more than 5 pts per 60 minutes of PP ice. Dennis Wideman, Brent Burns, Paul Martin and JM Liles were all above 4.
Secondly, the team reportedly didn't practice the PP until late in the season during that dreadful dry spell. I'm not one who prescribes to Keenan's "skilled players will figure it out" mentality, especially given how well coached PK units are these days. As such, I can't imagine ignoring the man advantage until it was pertinent was much help.
Of course, the lone elite level PP player the club had was signed by MTL for 6 large this off-season. The club also lost Bertuzzi's averge-ish production and didn't really replace it. As such, the PP may actually poised to get worse rather than better.
On the other hand, Phaneuf (assuming his issues were injury related) should bounce back up to previous levels, Brent Sutter WILL practice the PP (NJD PP = 18.9%) and Bouwmeester is capable (3.53 PPP/60 on the 24th ranked Panthers) on the back-end. Also, David Moss put up a good rate (4.50), largely on the 2nd unit and he should get more ice with the Cammalleri and Bertuzzi departures. Guys like Dawes and Boyd are, of course, wildcards who could very hit it out of the park (or dribble one to the pitcher) depending on if they take the next step. The departure of Adrian "shinpad" Aucoin well actually help the man advantage as well (1.64 PPP/60).
So, without further ado, let's do what comes naturally to fans during the off-season: make up meaningless line combinations!
Jokinen - Langkow - Iginla
Giordano - Phaneuf
My first unit mixes puck distributors (Giordano, Langkow) with 3 lethal shooters (Iginla, Jokinen, Phaneuf). Langkow's outstanding tipping skills should help as well.
Dawes/Bourque/Glencross - Boyd - Moss
Bouwmeester - Pardy (Stralman, Kronwall)
The LW is a toss up and will probably depend on how Bourque is deployed and who is "hot". Bouwmeester will likely be on the first unit with Gio relegated to this one, but I like the idea of having a bona fide quarterback on each unit. In addition, the second unit won't be as vulnerable those times when the penalty ends and the opposing coach throws on a couple of stars to take advantage of tired lesser lights.
Who knows how this will shake out, but this is how I envision things right now. Feel free to add your combos in the comments though.
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PP Thoughts
Boy-oh-boy, am I excited to see a PP that has actually practiced!
What a concept!
I think Dawes especially has the ability to impress on the man advantage. Given his WHL and AHL totals, he clearly knows how to score. Given time space and teammates on the PP I think he could make a solid contribution (considering we’re talking about a waiver wire pick up).
Giordano must play more that Kennan dipatched him last year (I recall him being underused on the PP last season). I really think he has a fantastic offensive understanding of the game.
"It's a great day for hockey" - BBJ
by jealous broadcaster on Sep 1, 2009 7:32 PM PDT reply actions
I don’t know that we’ll necessarily see a fixed second D pair for the PP. If I were to guess, the set-up might look like this:
First minute: Bouwmeester-Phaneuf
Next 45-ish seconds: Giordano-Phaneuf
Last 15 seconds: Bouwmeester-Regher to prepare up for a tough EV match-up after the PP ends.
I’d suspect that Phaneuf will get the extra time because he’s the one major threat to shoot, and it’s a good way for him to get ice-time where he isn’t actually having to defend anyone.
Up front, I’d guess that you’re largely correct, Kent, although I wouldn’t shocked if Langkow ends up on the second group just to give the forwards a bit of balance. The Flames’ shortage of proven skill guys in the top six looks a bit more glaring when you’re trying to sketch out PP groupings. Then again, maybe coaching can help, because Minny’s had a good PP for years with lesser talent than the Flames can deploy. They were still good last year with Rolston back in NJ, and Gaborik and Foster hurt all season. One thing that I’m pretty sure of is that no matter what combos end up playing, if the Flames are going to get a good year out of Olli Jokinen points-wise, the PP is going to be where it happens.
PP vs PK
I doubt you will see Bourque on the PP as he was so valuable on the PK last year. With Conroy, Glencross and Sjostrom also on the PK, Boyd has an opportunity to be a major player on the PP. Also – I’m with Robert – you will see Jay Bo on the PP
If Boyd and Dawes can be productive, that would free up GlenX-Conroy-Bourque for the first shift after the PP, which would make all sorts of sense tactically. I’m just not sold on both of Boyd and Dawes making the leap to becoming regular PP guys, I guess, but it would certainly alleviate a lot of the potential offensive woes if they could. I’m also quite sure Nystrom will get a fair share of PK time as well, so Boyd’s non-EV ice time might very well be more slanted towards the PP this year.
by Robert Cleave on Sep 1, 2009 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Phaneuf - Lethal Shooter
Whoa – just for reference I would like to know if there has ever been a worse shooter than Phaneuf’s 2008-09 season in the history of the game. It may be tough but you guys at M&G are stats wizards. Has there ever been a player in the NHL with a worse shooting percentage over the season when taking 200+ shots? 11 goals on 277 shots equals 4%. I am interested to find out who in the history of the game has been worse than this.
Chris Pronger took 204 shots in 01/02 with a SH% of 3.4.
That same year, the great Nik Lidstrom took 215 shots and ended up at 4.2%.
There have been guys in the intervening years that were close to 200 shots and actually below 4% or just over4% amongst D men, but didn’t perfectly meet the criteria what you were asking for. Bouwmeester took 189 shots in 05/06 and shot 2.6%
Phaneuf certainly had a poor shooting year, and his trend is straight down from his rookie year, but that number isn’t the outlier you might think.
After some research
Chelios was worse then that 3 times as was Ray Bourque at the end of his career (twice). Other guys who were worse are Gary Suter and Sylvain Cote. Larry Murphy was tied with .040SH%. The bright side is that it is unlikely that he can repeat this low shooting percentage and maybe we can get 20 goals out of him this year. Will be interesting to see if his shots drop off with JBow getting time on the PP (And maybe Gio taking some of Dions time as well)

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