Clouds on the horizon - the Calgary Flames and the falling cap

I tend to agree with Parallex, that, if the cap does go down, which I have a hard time believing it will drop much, it will not be a huge problem. In that, the Flames likely will have two big contract concerns next year – Bourque and Jokinen. I don’t see Nystrom’s raise being more than 350,00 per season given the role he plays. Conroy will likely retire, as his reduced contract to stay in Calgary hints at his pending quit. Primeau’s contract will be off the books for good as he is a UFA.

So, it’s Bourque likely due for a salary doubling to around 2.7million (which is cash Primeau takes if he dresses or watches from above) and Jokinen whose value is likely not to go up from that contract to the organization. If so, he’s out and replaced cheaper – a la Bert and Cammy or he’s resigned for reduced value to the Flames (unlikely).

As for Kippers contract – I contend that it isn’t THAT bad. Goaltenders contracts often look out of whack more than they are. For example Kipper’s contract if the 6 wealthiest in the league this year behind Luongo, Lundkvist, Miller, Backstrom and Giguere. It is about on par with Vokoun, Turco and Huet. Slightly more than Nabokov, Thomas, Brodeur and Fleury. That is 13 of 30 teams starting goalies.

As well, there are 23 of 50 goalies due for a new contract next year – in which most will increase. The one’s specifically to consider are Luongo, Mason, Ward, Price, and Hiller. Of those, two to four will bump Kipper’s contract to about 10th in the league in cost and on par with about 5 others (15 of 30). Therefore, if Calgary wants a starting goalie of his pedigree they will be paying that price anyway as more than half the other teams are in for the same bucks.

Kipper may be on a downward trend in performance, but he is as good a goalie as many of the other’s who are playing for the same amount (Nabakov, Giguere, Turco, Huet, for example) The reality is that Kipper’s contract will be more appropriate as time goes on based on his previous performance earning him those dollars because the turn-over in flash in the pan goalies is very high. His Vezina trophy year may have been his own flash in the pan, but to have a top-ten (elite) goalie for 5+ years (albeit the last two have been less great stats wise) with potential going forward will cost big. Few goalies have maintained there ‘value’ better than Kipper over the long term. Luongo (who makes more and will make much more) Lundkvist (who costs more), Brodeur and likely Thomas (who was a revelation). But the consistency in goalies, let alone elite goalies is rare and the contracts have huge disparity. From year to year there will be ten-high value young goalies in the top 15 in league stats who will disappear two years later (Theodore, Raycroft, Toskala, DiPeitro or Price, Lehtonen, Ellis, Emery, LeClaire today).

Coupled with the cheap back-up our 6.3 million hit (5.8 + .5)is high, it’s definitely not a steal as Kipper once was, but it’s not as bad as we like to make out. He has played 300 games in four years and won 166 – those aren’t noted as “look at how good he is” just that most teams pay two, three or four goalies to play that much stay healthy and win – we pay one.

This can address Kent’s response above as well.

Kippers stats I am sure you all know
GP W W% L L% OTL GAA SV% SV SO Shoot Out SHA SV Sv%
76 45 .592 24 .316 5 2.84 .903 1946 4 14 11 .786

Average (goalies who played over 27 games)
47.9 23.6 .493 16.7 .349 5.3 2.71 .909 1243 3.2 20.5 13.7 .667

Kipper Leads the league in Games played and wins, he plays a ton and wins a ton…more than any other goalie over the last four years. He also loses less (%) than the ‘average’ goalie even though he plays almost double, has more shutouts than average, has to make 1.56 more saves in a season than average and has the 6th best Shootout stats of all goalies. His GAA is a palty .13 over average and a 6th of 1 percent less than average sv%. This is his worst season statistically.

It’s easy to say only SV% counts, but thats looking at the stat you wanna see, not all of the stats. He’s played more and won more than any other goalie over the past four years and has career stats that read:

GP
385 204 .530 125 .325 42 2.46 .912 30

He also ranked 12th out of 46 goalies at even strength last year and has a higher SQN sv% @.909, which is adjusted for difficulty than his actual sv% @ .903. Thomas for example is much worse actual.930, adjusted.918. He has faced more shots than any goalie over the last four years @ 9208 and sees very high quality shots against – 1.01 (Unlike the Wild .93, Buins .99 or Canucks 1 – i.e. home of the best)

He has also ranked in the top ten in the Goalie’s World rankings for the past five seasons based on their ranking system.

His pay is 6th in the league – likely to go down respective to others to around 10th next year and he gets no help from his backup McElhinney who won 1 game and has worse stats in every category except playoffs this year. I would like to know where the Flames rank in cost for Goalies including both starter and backup, because McElhinney’s value is zero to the team at this point.

I think this is well above average goaltending. You can focus on Sv% and say its the only stat, but if you look at all the stats Kipper is well above average and one of the better performers over the past 4 seasons.
  
I think it’s time someone developed a good metric for goaltenders which takes into account all statistics and gives a ranking, like a QB ranking because this debate is getting tiresome. The goalies world one is good, but it has its flaws, such as not considering shot quality against.