Sutter should resist re-signing Bertuzzi
by Kent Wilson on Jul 12, 2009 7:44 PM PDT
19 comments
Now that the Darryl has acquired his annual reclamation project (McGrattan) and the Flames have inched ever so much closer to the salary cap, there's a sizable chance Daz will not be tempted to re-up Todd Bertuzzi (also know as: Sore Thumb, Sparklepants). But...just in case...
My contempt for the player is well noted, but I figure he was worth a parting shot at this time (it's the off-season after all). His boxcar numbers hide his ineffectiveness well enough that you'll find a good portion of Flames fans wouldn't be too broken up if the big lug were to return.
They'd be mistaken.
To illustrate, I'm going to list three players advanced stats: one is Todd's output from last season and I'll reveal the other two afterwards.
Qual Comp: -0.05 (3rd easiest on the team amongst forwards)
Qual Teammates: +0.15 (2nd best amongst forwards)
Corsi: +5.9 (3rd worst amongst forwards)
ESP/60: 1.64 (4th worst amongst forwards)
plus/minus: -8 (4th worst amongst forwards)
That's obviously Bert. Now the comparables.
Player #1
Qual Comp: -0.04 (4th easiest)
Qual Teammates: -0.05 (4th worst)
Corsi: +4.2 (2nd worst)
ESP/60: 1.50 (2nd worst)
plus/minus: -11 (worst)
Player #2
Qual Comp: -0.05 (2nd easiest)
Qual Teammates: -0.01 (6th worst)
Corsi: +5.8 (2nd best)
ESP/60: 1.63 (8th best)
plus/minus: -4 (2nd worst)
Player #1 is the Flames own Dustin Boyd. At 22 years old and still learning the ropes, Boyd was, in some ways, the worst forward on the club last year. That said, he played slightly tougher opposition with much worse linemates and put up similar numbers to Todd Bertuzzi - who, as we all know, was gifted some of the best circumstances on the club at ES. The primary difference between these two players, besides their PP time and such, is the fact that Boyd has years of development and improvement ahead of him while Bertuzzi is clearly on the downslope of his career.
If that comparison doesn't clarify things, player #2 is the much maligned Maxim Afinogenov of the Buffalo Sabres. Ridiculed as soft and inconsistent for years (and unlikely to find another deal in the NHL this summer as a result). Max played with worse players, put up a better relative corsi rate and similar ESP/60. It's probably fair to say he was no worse than Bertuzzi at ES and he was roundly loathed in Buffalo by fans and coaches alike. And, oh yeah, Max got jobbed by the hockey gods when it came to the bounces last season as well (PDO = 97.1). Bert...not so much.
So the next time you hear someone suggest the Flames re-ink Bert to fill a gap in the top 6, suggest Maxim Afinogenov instead and see how they react. It's basically the same thing.
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The Flames are pretty much done, I do not see Sutter picking anyone else up unless he does it threw the trade route.
I agree, but you just never know will Ol’ Darryl. I’ll feel a lot better when Bert gets signed by someone else.
Where do you think he might end up? My guesses are:
- Ottawa: he’s from Ontario and would probably take a cut in pay to play there. Plus, the Sens need more occassionally skilled and inconsistently motivated players.
- Toronto: Ontario…Brian Burke…just go home, Todd.
- Phoenix: the Flames new dumping ground, plus Gretzky thinks highly of him (’06 Olympic team? Really???)
- Calgary: you said it: ya never know.
You know, I’ve been happy with the offseason (as most of us are), and was even ‘meh’ on the McGratten signing – don’t really care, don’t really want him here but doesn’t move my needle much either way. But Bertuzzi…well, I am just copying what’s already been said by Kent and many others, but that would depress me beyond reason if he were signed. I was in favor of it last year when it happened, and for a few months was OK with it even though I knew the underlying numbers weren’t great. But by the end of the year, he was abysmal, awful, terrible, a crappy linemate, an ice-time waster, an occasional (rare)-nice-play-maker which got him ridiculous amounts of praise…just the opposite of any player I want to cheer for. Other than his shootout skill (which has limited value), he frankly is done as a legitimate NHLer unless some coach has magic powers. And that coach is not Brent Sutter…PLEASE!!!
I’m REALLY holding out hope that Bertuzzi ends up in Europe next year. That would brighten my day.
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Funny, and good timing. I’m always blown away by alleged experts that still think Bert can contribute at any sort of worthwhile level. I know this is normally an insult thrown around at the math-ier types in the hockey-sphere, but do these folks not watch the games? Anyone who actually even pays modest attention to his play can see what’s going on out there. The underlying numbers just complete the indictment.
by Robert Cleave on Jul 12, 2009 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh I don’t know. I do think that he has the ability to contribute to a team (key word is ability) the question is if he’s able to put it all together for a full game for a full season.
There’s no doubt that he has plenty of talent (which is what the experts are looking at I’m sure) but he just has too much trouble in staying focused.
Who knows, maybe there is a right situation where he’d be able to put it all together and be an all star, as he has the talent, but I doubt that there is.
Bertuzzi was put in really, really favorable surroundings last year and he still achievable less than impressive rates (to be charitable). He played with good players a lot, had the second most PP time per game amongst Flames forwards, he started most of his shifts in offensive zone and was frequently sheltered from the big guns…
And yet, he was still a minus player, a nominal out-shooter and was barely more efficient than Dustin Boyd at producing points 5on5. I really can’t imagine how much better the situation would have to be to re-make him into an all-star: it doesn’t get much better than what he had last season.
Bertuzzi has talent, for sure. But his decision making, compete level and fragility completely undermine it.
by Kent Wilson on Jul 12, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions
By right situation I mean a situation where he can be motivated and keep his head in the game. Not just surrounded by talent.
Nope
Let’s not forget he went through all this the season before in Anaheim as well, where he also got every opportunity to succeed (cherry minutes with Getzlaf/Perry, PP time, etc.).
I’m not even sure what you mean by “right situation”, if Anaheim and Calgary don’t qualify, but at any rate, for 2 years in a row, his liabilities outweighed his strengths.
"Of several acceptable explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest is preferable, provided that it takes all circumstances into account." — that’s Occam’s Razor, and it suggests that Bertuzzi just isn’t very good anymore.
No they need a third line center, but their top six are pretty much set (barring anything coming from Sundin land which I’d like to think is talk more than anything). I can’t really imagine Bertuzzi himself would want to return again anyway. Burke just needs so sign him or stash him away in Atlanta or Tampa where he can be mostly ignored for the rest of his career.
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by Yankee Canuck on Jul 13, 2009 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I’d rather McGratton played every game than we re-signed Bertuzzi. Yeah, the 15 goals were nice, and he was money on a breakaway or in the shootout, but holy christ, I have never seen a LAZIER player. Guy had no clue at all where the defensive zone was, and his ridiculous habit of trying to skate into the zone with one hand on his stick caused so many turnovers I lost count.
I learned last year that I don’t have to hate Bertuzzi for the Moore incident anymore. His weaknesses as a hockey player are more than enough reason on their own.
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