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2009 Free Agency: What the Flames should do

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I got a head start on this awhile ago, identifying and reviewing a number of potential free agents the Flames may be targeting this summer. The landscape has obviously changed somewhat since my initial volley with the Bouwmeester acquisition, so let's do a bit of a run down:

Star-divide

Pending UFAs: Adam Pardy, Mike Cammalleri, Adrian Aucoin, Todd Bertuzzi, Andre Roy, Jamie Lundmark, Warren Peters, Rhett Warrener, Jay Bouwmeester

Pending RFAs: Dustin Boyd, Kris Chucko

Cap space: 9.383 + (Prust-Vandermeer) 1.5M = 10.883M

Projected Budget: 56.8M

Key needs: With the loss of Bertuzzi and Cammalleri, the Flames may need to add another capable, scoring forward to the top 6.

Potential targets: Brian Gionta, Mikael Samuelsson, Mike Knuble, Erik Cole, Steve Sullivan

What our rivals want: EDM, VAN and MIN will all be looking for legitimate, high priced scoring forwards. COL needs everything - from goaltending to defense to forward depth. All the NW division SBN blogs should have their own free agency posts up shortly.

Obviously, the free agents of biggest concern are a couple of the Flames own: Adam Pardy, Dustin Boyd and Jay Bouwmeester. It would surprise me to see Warren Peters and Kris Chucko shake loose as well, while Jamie Lundmark is a bit of wild card. Bert, Cammalleri, Aucoin, Roy and Warrener are all long gone. 

If Sutter inks Bouwmeester, the chances of the Flames pursuing another free agent outside the fold are slim and none. That deal will eat up a majority of the Flames remaining cap space and without another contract or two going out the door, the Flames won't have the budget space to go shopping.

Of course, if Bouwmeester opts to go free and bolts for greener pastures, the Flames will likely be in play for all the guys mentioned and perhaps a depth defender as well. How the reported meeting between Darryl Sutter and Bouwmeester goes today will go a long way to determining how active the Flames will be come July.

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I have been away from the PC all weekend and had not heard about JBO until now. I figure this is the best place to start with my thoughts.

Currently I feel very good about this situation, and the reason is this. Even if JBO doesn’t sign here I think Dutter deserves some serious props for being the only GM who took a risk on JBO. It’s a small loss for a potentially big reward (if he does sign) because we know obviously someone will be dishing out the dollars for the stud, so, if he is that good. Why not Calgary? As well, the Prust for Vandy trade is simply genius, and accomplishes three major/minor objectives. 1. Ditches poor-value salary in Vandy. 2. Ditches Roy…more poor value salary. 3. Brings back a good value fan favorite.

As well…with Aucoin gone (4million) and Vandy gone (2.8million) and Leopold gone (1.5million) we have 8.3 million dollars departing from the backend and JBO coming in. Let’s not worry about the other players for a second, because last year we had those other players as well. Yes, Kipper makes tons of dough… and Yes the forwards (Iggy, Lanks, Cammy, Joker..et al. are very highly paid)… AND last year we paid 8.3 million dollars for Vandy, Aucoin and Leopold….which makes me want to lose my breakfast.

Think this…. unless JBo demands more that 7.5 million, which I don’t think he will, we get him and save almost 750,000 in the process. Is he worth three defensemen? who knows? and no, if you’ve got the right three. Is he worth Aucoin, Vandy and Leopold. Hell yes.

Lastly. The environment the Flames will have created on Defense will be spectacular for the long term development on the youth. i.e. Regher rub’s off on Pardy…so we get two big stay at home Shut down “D”. JBO rubs off on Phaneuf – they may be similar age, but on the developmental curve JBo is way ahead. Sarich and Gio …well..whatever. Pelech and Negrin will have a great list of “D-men” to assist their development in training camp and in fill-in roles with injurues.

Keenan’s style of coaching was outdated, and I also think having big name veterans through the ranks is as well. More often we see young kids stepping into a team with a few big stars and making noise. I say…offer Jbo up to 6.5 – 7 million…long term, and let the youngters come in. Why not Backlund on the fourth line? Boyd over Bertuzzi. Prust over Roy. Hell, give Lundmark a shot at Cammy’s spot, it’s a stretch yeah….but I’d rather see that than another 4 millioner like Aucoin come in up front or on the back end because we didn’t sign Jbo.

by LawrenceS on Jun 29, 2009 9:46 AM PDT reply actions  

I tend to agree with most of hwat you are saying, except that I don’t think he’s worth 7.5 million. Even if you think he is worth $7.5 million, I don’t think Sutter pays it. I think, if Sutter can get him to sign for 6.9 (ie: just less than Iggy), he might do it. It’s a long shot, but I doubt he goes for it unless he thinks there is at least a reasonable chance it gets done.

My prediction, there’s an announcement by about 2:30pm today and J-Bo is signed for $6.9 mill per year for 4-5 years.

by Subversive on Jun 29, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

i agree with pretty much everything you say here except backlund on the 4th line. that dude needs to be top 6 or he’s wasted entirely…. not to mention the fact that his defensive game is hardly his forté….

by walkinvisible on Jun 29, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

yeah you’re totally right about that… I wasn’t thinking it through too much, and now I actually don’t see Backlund coming in it at all. I wouldn’t be surprised with

Bourque – Langkow – Iginla
Moss – Jokinen – Boyd
GlenX – Conroy – Lundmark
Nystrom – Primeau (or other) – Prust

Regher-Jbo
Phanuef – Sarich
Gio – Pardy

Keepers…

This is something I like (5.85 million less from last years forwards…with pending contracts for Boyd, Lundmark (or equivilent) and the Nystrom raise (+ 185,000?) and Primeau (or equivilent) off the IR (+1.4million)…That’s with Cammy, Bertuzzi and Roy (UFA’s) not being re-signed.

And the D – (minus 7.8 million for last year’s “d”) which I can agree with 6.9 going to Jbo and 900,000 to Pardy.

Keepers are the same …or with McE getting a $35,000 raise

Additionally, I’m thinking that the salary dump ‘favour’ Dutter did for the Coyotes with Jokinen, was just paid back for the salary dump of Vandy. Seeing Dutter hand over the pick to the devils, only reinforces my ideas that he is very much a ‘man-of-his-word’ kinda guy and would have been calling the Coyotes in a hurry asking them, or demanding them to do that solid…otherwise a nearly bankrupt team acquiring a 2.3million Vandy makes little sense to me.

by LawrenceS on Jun 29, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

….err, That should be 7.8 million less than last years cap hit for “dmen” not 8.3 million, with a huge payout and a small raise pending for JBo and Pardy.

by LawrenceS on Jun 29, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions  

Here's a really handy site...

..for cap calculations. It allows you to add players/salary and it calculates the final roster. Found it at Nucks Misconduct.

by Kent Wilson on Jun 29, 2009 10:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Nice site. I plugged in Boyd at 900k, Pardy at 850k and Bouwmeester at 6.75mil (right between Phaneuf and Iginla). With Greentree and Van Der Gulik filling the last 2 forward spots, that leaves 2.945 million in cap space and 20 guys on the roster. I don’t think they’ll keep more than 1 extra player with the big league roster, so if it’s Pelech, that would leave just about 2 million to play with, and a hole in the top six unless Boyd is ready to play big minutes on the left side.

by Robert Cleave on Jun 29, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Would we be totally loss if Jay doesn’t sign here it might be a blessing in disguise the money will have to assure Boyd, Pardy possibly Peters, Lundmark and or Chucko plus some money to spend on those mentioned above and have the money to call up players and not be screwed in late March. Sure Bouwmeester is the coveted Defenseman and or Defense would sure be up on the top of the NHL just like Sutter wants it but I think we really have to be smart about dealing with this situation.

by CofRed on Jun 29, 2009 10:34 AM PDT reply actions  

please don’t factor kris chucko into your discussions on capspace.

by walkinvisible on Jun 29, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

when you have a oppurtunity like this with bouwmeester you have to sign him. sort the remaining stuff later.

by shep_ on Jun 29, 2009 12:29 PM PDT reply actions  

i do worry a bit (read: a lot) about pardy.

by walkinvisible on Jun 29, 2009 12:37 PM PDT reply actions  

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