Flames off-season - setting the stage
by Kent Wilson on May 19, 2009 10:06 AM PDT
9 comments
With the season reviews out of the way, it's time to start looking forward. Not surprisingly, I find the most interesting part of the off-season is playing armchair GM: identifiying roster holes, cap issues, potential UFA targets, etc.
Calgary was one of the most expensive clubs in the league last year, with a lot of that weight carrying forward into next season. On one hand, the Flames won't be facing potentially catastrophic turn-over like the Habs this summer. On the other hand, they're going to have precious little room to manuevre unless they somehow eject one of their big tickets.
Let's take a look at the Flames theoretical depth chart as it stands right now:
Forwards
Bourque (1.35M) - Jokinen (5.25M) - Iginla (7M)
Glencross - (1.2) - Langkow (4.5M) - Moss (1.3M)
Nystrom (688k) - Conroy - 1M - ? (Boyd)
? (Greentree) - Primeau (1.4M) - Van Der Gulik (487k)
(Sutter 537k)
UFAs: Bertuzzi, Cammalleri, Roy, Lundmark, Peters
RFAs: Boyd, Greentree, Chucko
Total - $24.712
Defense
Regehr (4.02M) - Sarich (3.6M)
Phaneuf (6.5M) - Giordano (892k)
Vandermeer (2.3M) - (Pardy) ?
Pelech (850k)
UFAs: Aucoin, Leopold, Pardy, Warrener
Total - 18.162M
Goal
Kiprusoff (5.833M)
?
Total - 5.833M
Team Total - 48.707M
The situation becomes a little clearer now, I think. The Flames have about 48M tied up in next year's club with at least 5 holes to fill. Let's further clarify the picture by assuming the Flames sign some of the obvious free agents - Boyd (850k), Greentree (900k), Pardy (850k). That plugs three holes and adds another (approx) 2.6M for a 51.307M total. Add in Mr.Back-up at 500k and Calgary is pushing 52M (51.807M), assuming, of course, the team doesn't pursue someone more veteran (and therefore expensive) to sit on the bench next year.
At 52M, the Flames have Bourque, Glencross and Moss in their top 6, two rookies on the 4th line (as well as a rookie 13th forward), a second pairing of Phaneuf and Giordano, a rookie as the 7th defenseman and the cheapest possible back-up for a goalie that played at replacement level this season. Assuming the cap ceiling stagnates, the club probably has < 5M to play with (because I can't see Der Sutter spending to the hilt right away again). What can we take from this?
- Cammalleri and Aucoin are long gone.
- One of Leopold or Bertuzzi are potentially re-signable, but probably not both.
- Lundmark is potentially re-signable, depending on other moves and his asking price.
- Flames could be in the market for one more mid-level ($2-4M) UFA at either forward or defense, but not much else.
- The left side looks like the most obvious place for Sutter's annual gap-filler/reclamation project. Kyle Calder? Keith Tkachuk?
- Does this club look better or worse than the most recent iteration? It's the latter for me given the addition of Jokinen, subtraction of Lombardi and Cammalleri and promotion of Moss/Glencross and Nystrom. However, these are broad strokes from 50,000 feet so there's a lot of room for error.
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One of Leopold or Bertuzzi are potentially re-signable, but probably not both
Shudder.
Thanks for the overview Kent. Seems like the first good place to trim the fat is at Vandermeer and Primeau (or, if we choose to dream, Jokinen).
I wouldn’t have much of a problem with Glencross and Moss on the second line. Most nights that was the role they were serving anyway.
It’s more the space left by Moss and Glencross that would be worrying. They move up, leaving question marks behind them.
by Kent Wilson on May 19, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
(or, if we choose to dream, Jokinen).
They won’t unload Jokinen because his salary disappears after next season. If they could unload Vandermeer and/or Primeau, well that would be useful. Kiprusoff would still be my best-case move. Unless he’s top 15 in performance, it’s a hell of a waste of money. There isn’t much evidence he’s going to be at that level.
Walt Tkachuk or Calder, no thanks. That looks like Bertuzzi redux. If they promote Bourque and Moss, they’re likely looking for a second line LW and a third line RW. Joel Ward for the Moss slot, maybe? I don’t see Backlund moving up this year, btw. He needs a year in the AHL to mature.
re: Backlund.
Neither do I. He’s done well in the WHL, but he’s no phenom which bis asically what a 20 year old has to be to make the NHL and not be a liability. Plus, the Flames have ample options down the middle this year.
by Kent Wilson on May 19, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I think if you add Lundmark in with the three guys you have listed as 3rd liners and the space behind Moss/Glencross doesn’t look so bad. Boyd and Nystrom are both ready to move to that 3rd line level, I believe. May mean holes on the 4th line, but that’s a lesser degree issue.
As for Backlund, depends a bit on if Keenan is here or not, but if he’s gone I wouldn’t be surprised to see Backlund on the 4th line after 1/2 a season in the AHL, playing a similar role to Boyd last year (and early this year).
With all this, the team will be better if Phaneuf and Iginla move back up a level towards earning their money, and worse if they don’t. I’ve finally given up on Kipper earning his dough, but I’m not sure he’s tradeable. If his play improves even a little, that certainly will help. I do think a backup goalie will cost more than $500K if Kipper’s workload is truly going to go down.
The left side looks like the most obvious place for Sutter’s annual gap-filler/reclamation project.
you’re clearly not paying attention, kent. money is to be spent on goaltending, defense and centre…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Backlund on the 4th line after 1/2 a season in the AHL
sutter has publically stated that if backlund doesn’t get a spot in the top six, backlund doesn’t play in the biggies. i would imagine a year with the heat before a fulltime callup in 10/11… of course, in saying that, sutter may have changed his mind since he spent all his pennies on last year’s team.
Backlund
I have to think he starts in the AHL next year. He would likely get the mid season call up, and depending on his play get a shot to stick around (unless keenan is still here, in which case Backlund better get ready for a full year in the AHL or a firm spot on the Flames bench).
As for Bertuzzi, if they resign him I may have to cry like most Flames fan do when Bert throws a backhand across the middle to the other team.
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