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Around SBN: The Eternal Unpredictability of the 2011-12 Boston Celtics

What worries me about the Flames...

     What's been worrying me about the Flames isn't this season, in fact, this season looks like it'll be pretty rad.  Nor is it even the next season.  It's 2 years down the road, maybe 3, and so on.  Because while the team is looking pretty good right now, our prospect cubbard is looking, well, like crap.

Star-divide

Don't get me wrong, we have some decent prospects coming up through the system.  But that's all they are, decent prospects.  The best guy in the Flames system right now is Mikael Backlund, who is kinda chancy at best.  He has the potential to maybe be a first line center, maybe picking up 80 point seasons.  And that's not bad...if it happens.  But he also has a lot of potential to be a huge bust and never leave the 3rd and 4th lines.  So let's look at some of the players drafted since the Sutter regime began.

2003: Dion Phaneuf.  1st round, 9th overall.  Okay, so Sutter didn't screw the pooch here.  But in this draft, you'd have to try to to mess up.  I mean, you'd have to pick Hugh Jessiman, Anthony Stewart, or Marc Pouliot (lol Oilers) to mess up in the 2003 first round.  Even then, Phaneuf's rookie season was probably his best, and he's definitely taken a step back this year.  Not a fan of that.

2003: Tim Ramholt.  2nd Round, 39th overall. This guy has played exactly one NHL game.  Since then he's been purely trade fodder.  I mean hell, he was traded for Josh Gratton.  Who else was taken in this round that we could've got? Dan Fritsche, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, Patrick O'Sullivan, hell, even BJ Combreen would've been a better option.  The upside?  He eventually brought us Kyle Greentree, who may turn out to be nothing, or may turn out to be a 2nd line winger.  Hard to tell.

2004: Kris Chucko. 1st round, 24th overall.  This is where I start to get sad.  I mean, 2nd round picks like Ramholt aren't sure things, and the odd one not panning out is understandable.  But Chucko was drafted 5 years ago and has yet to play an NHL minute.  Yes, his stats have been getting better in the AHL, but a 1st round pick should be at least somewhat dominant there.  Maybe he'll be a Black Ace for the playoffs, maybe he'll never be a NHLer and instead is a career AHL player like poor Jamie Lundmark who's probably more deserving of a Flames spot than, say, Andre Roy.  Who else could we have taken after him?  MIKE FREAKING GREEN.

2004: Brandon Prust, Dustin Boyd, and the Adam Pardy Experiment. 3rd rounds and 6th round, 70, 98, and 173 respectively.  For 3rd round picks, these first two guys are pretty solid.  Prust is not a regular yet, but he's not far off, and Boyd is getting much better.  Again, for 3rd rounders this is pretty solid.  As far as Pardy is concerned, hell yeah.  He's playing 13 minutes a night, just about every night, more than the next D we drafted...

2005: Matt Pelech. 1st round, 26th overall.  Yet another who's never seen the NHL.  And looking at his stats (8 points in 53 games this year, 9 in 77 last year), there's a good chance he won't anytime soon.  I mean, that'd be acceptable if he were a shutdown D, but I don't see how he can be a shutdown D with 108 PIM in 53 games.  Seems like a defensive liability to me.  Who could we have drafted instead?  M-E Vlasic, James Neal, Paul Stastny (bleah Colorado.

2005: Dan Ryder. 3rd round, 74th overall.  This guy gave up.  He quit playing hockey for a year.  And we drafted him?

After 2005, the players are too young to get a really good bearing on their development.  Hell, one of the guys here could turn out to be a late blooming Pavel Datsyuk, it's hard to tell.  But as far as young players go, Sutter has not shown to have the eye, at least not in the first round.  And obviously I don't expect our draft picks to blossom into flow blown players overnight either, but they could at least be cracking the line-up after four years from being drafted.  And every time I see the Caps play, Mike Green will make me weep.

 

Edit: Also, could somebody explain what the hell a "fanshot" is?  It sounds like a new way to consume alcohol that involves blades and horrifying deaths.

 

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Wow, great first fanpost Arik.

A fanshot is a place where a commenter can post a video or picture of interest I believe.

by Kent Wilson on Feb 26, 2009 10:18 AM PST reply actions  

That is a great post, nice one.

A good overview of all things SBN can be found here in case you need it.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Feb 26, 2009 10:36 AM PST reply actions  

Good post, though I think you are being unfair in a few cases.

Chucko was always intended to be a long term project. Was he the best choice for that selection? Probably not. Looking in hindsight? Almost certainly not. He is, however, progressing well in the AHL after his time in college. A first round pick isn’t always a slam dunk, especially at the back end of the first round. For comparison sake, Rob Shremp was drafted immediately after and has made no impact on an Oilers team with much, much less depth. Of the players taken just after Chucko, only Schultz and Green have more than 100 games played in the NHL. The Caps got a major steal in Green, but otherwise, nobody else has drafted a top player in that area of the draft.

Pelech, similarily, was drafted as a project. He is a guy the team is moulding after Robyn Regehr, so offensive numbers are not a good way to measure him. From what I understand, he is viewed as one of the top two contenders to come up if the need for another defencemen arises.

Ryder’s sudden loss of interest in hockey was not something that could be anticipated. He had a good shot at making it if his head was screwed on straight.

by Resolute on Feb 26, 2009 11:05 AM PST reply actions  

Im going to assess the Flames futures sometime. Im actually fairly optimistic myself.

by Kent Wilson on Feb 26, 2009 11:27 AM PST reply actions  

Brutal Post

Easy to look back and say “oh, man… we missed out on Pavel Datsyk”.

It even easier that knowing what kind of a player Matt Pelech is (that’s EASY, just do your homework).

AULIE

NEGRIN

WAHL

PELECH

These are all guys that are progressing nicely, Sutter drafts with a purpose and you can see that when looking at what the D-core could be in a few years.

How old was Johan Franzen when he stuck in the NHL as a regular?? (26)

Development isn’t a race. The final product is what matters.

"It's a great day for hockey" - BBJ

by jealous broadcaster on Feb 26, 2009 11:56 AM PST reply actions  

In regards to Pelech...

I did say that if he’s trying to be modeled after Regehr, then he shouldn’t be racking up the PIMs like he is. Hell, Regehr doesn’t even shoot as hard as he could because he doesn’t want to break his stick and be a liability, that’s how defensive minded he is. Pelech needs to cut down the penalties, his primary job should be defense.

And as far as Aulie, Wahl, and Negrin are concerned, I did say that they’re too recent to judge. My main concern is not the defensive side of the Flames down the road, it’s having a first line someday that doesn’t look like Florida’s. Because that’s where we’re headed.

by ArikJames on Feb 26, 2009 12:01 PM PST reply actions  

Frankly, I don’t think you have any clue what type of player Pelech is. He’s not scoring, and he’s got a lot of PIMs, therefore he must be a defensive liability? How does that figure? If you are judging only on stats, then there is no humanly possible way you can make that statement.

by Resolute on Feb 26, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Obviously, this is my opinion and a lot of people disagree with me, however, a stay at home defenseman’s first responsibility is preventing goals. He can’t do that from a penalty box or while putting the other team on the power play. The players who take lots of PIMs, in my opinion, should be offensive D-men (Phaneuf) or 4th liners.

His job is to prevent goals and goal scoring opportunities. Of course there will be times where he’ll need to take a penalty to do so, but not to the tune of 140 PIMs a season.

by ArikJames on Feb 26, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions  

There were some reports out of the QC earlier this year that Pelech did, indeed, struggle to be effective.

You’re right though, judging shut-down defenseman via counting stats is nearly impossible.

by Kent Wilson on Feb 26, 2009 2:55 PM PST reply actions  

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