Flames Scoring Chance Differentials, Games 1-20
Scott was good enough to post the Flames scoring chance count through games 11-20 (minus the untelevised Blues game of course) below. Here I've added the differentials for the second set as well as whole data set thus far.
First, games 11-20:
Conroy and Boyd came back down to earth in this segment, while Mark Giordano climbed back up top from the third pairing. Iginla and Jokinen were marginally better in this series, although it still sucks to see the two of them at the bottom of the forward barrel.Of note is the fact that Langkow et al are still on the plus side of things, despite some tough match-ups and lots of own zone draws. One wonders how well they'd do if they weren't having to take on the heavy lifting so often.
On the bad side of things, Cory Sarich has absolutely had his ass handed to him by this measure thus far. It's notable that his regular partner, Jay Bouwmeester, was somehow 12 chances better through this 9 game sample. Hmmmm...
And now, for the whole dataset:
Glencross' big first 10 and passable second 10 has him in the lead while Mr. Sex Panther brings up the rear. Keep in mind, of course, this is all even strength information so excludes all the chances Iginla and Jokinen would be getting on the PP.
Also of note:
- Rene Bourque has been amazing thus far. Here's hoping he's not out for the long-term. Honestly, he's been the Flames best all-around forward over the first quarter.
- Craig Conroy continues to deliver. He's still far superior to guys like Nystrom and Sjostrom.
- I personally like the work of Nigel Dawes. Although he skates with some good players in Langkow and Bourque, I don't think he's merely been a passenger on that line. He was acquired as a "sniper", but his vision and ability to find open teammates in the offensive zone has been a boon to the squad. He isn't a defensive liability either.
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Personally I am glad that Jokinen is separating himself from the pack, so to speak. The guy doesn’t have nearly anywhere close to the toughest workload amongst the Flames F (that inglorious task is split between Iginla and Langkow if you look at BTN zone starts through 21 games).
But, as maimster said in another thread, it might just be piling on at this point.
by R O on Nov 23, 2009 7:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Regularized for Ice Time
I just quickly regularized these numbers for ice time (using NHL.com ESTOI) and came up with the following rates per 60 min of EV Ice for each player
Glencross 4.66
Conroy 3.95
Bourque 1.46
Giordano 1.12
Dawes 1.09
Kronwall 3.81
Boyd 1.05
Pardy 0.99
Langkow 0.41
Prust 0.00
Moss -0.92
McGrattan -8.18
Phaneuf -0.94
Bouwmeester -1.37
Nystrom -3.24
Sjostrom -4.02
Regehr -2.78
Iginla -4.07
Sarich -5.87
Jokinen -6.92
What sticks out for me on this is:
-McGrattan’s absolute suckitude.
-How much pro hockey is really about the play at the fringes. You look at someone like Boyd’s stats in this regard. Most would agree his play over 20 games has been good. But his scoring chance numbers show he is generating one more chance than he is giving up every 60 minutes of EV ice time. He plays about 12 min at EV every game, so every 6 games he gives up one more chance than he generated.
by CalTach on Nov 23, 2009 8:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Great idea, Cal…thanks for doing that. Although keep in mind the Flames have played 21 games and this is just games 1-20. Did you add the results from the LAK match before normalizing for ice time?
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 8:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, to be real accurate, we’d have to remove the Blues game ice time since it wasn’t captured in the scoring chance study.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the rejigged numbers:
I added in the LAK differentials and subtracted the STL game ice time.
1.) Glencross +4.81/60
2.) Conroy +3.76/60
3.) Boyd +1.65/60
4.) Bourque +1.18/60
5.) Giordano +1.11/60
6.) Dawes +0.95/60
7.) Langkow +0.47/60
8.) Bouwmeester -0.67/60
9.) Moss -0.81/60
11.) Prust -1.17/60
12.) Regehr -2.08/60
13.) Iginla -3.14/60
14.) Nystrom -3.35/60
15.) Sjostrom -4.42/60
16.) Sarich -5.25/60
17.) Jokinen – 5.5/60
18.) McGrattan -8.57/60
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Missed Pardy. He clocks in at +1.21/60…so between Boyd and Bourque.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn, and Phaneuf. He came in at -0.76/60
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Corsi and Scoring Chances.
Ready? Here’s how the Flames rank in terms of relative corsi rates/60 (from best to worst):
1.) Curtis Glencross
2.) Adam Pardy
3.) Craig Conroy
4.) Robyn Regehr
5.) Rene Bourque
6.) David Moss
7.) Nigel Dawes
8.) Mark Giordano
9.) Dion Phaneuf
10.) Dustin Boyd
11.) Daymond Langkow
12.) Brandon Prust
13.) Freddy Sjostrom
14.) Eric Nystrom
15.) Jarome Iginla
16.) Olli Jokinen
17.) Brian McGrattan
18.) Jay Bouwmeester
19.) Cory Sarich
Obviously that’s for 21 games (and the scoring chance differentials above lack the Blues and Kings game), but things look pretty dame close already. The only guys who seem to be way off are Regehr and Bouwmeester.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 9:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
And I would bet the Regehr/Bouwmeester thing is just luck. It seems tempting to say that they’re getting better chance numbers because they’re better defensemen… but that ought to go hand in hand with preventing possession as well.
But I do think they’re doing just about as well as they can playing behind Jokinen. I don’t even think it’s an Iggy thing anymore, he’s improving now and looks to be on the cusp of making a difference.
by R O on Nov 23, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So, this is where we say that the guys who are generating more chances, like Connie, are going to start seeing benefit from it correct? I definitely understand that zone time and possession lead to winning games and that more time spent shooting pucks at the bad goalie means greater likelihood of us winning and Flames who are driving possession are players who are likely to start piling up stats.
However, I still think that we fundamentally have too many players chugging along at barely minimum contribution levels from a counting numbers perspective:
I, personally, think we need at least 20-25 goal and 40-50 point (+/- 10%) performances from each of these players:
Boyd – (12g, 25a, 37p) pace 9.7sh%
GlenX – (18g, 18a, 36p) pace 11.4%
Dawes – (16g, 31a, 45p) pace 12.5%
Moss – (20g, 15a, 35p) pace 16.0
and 30-35 goal and 60-70 points from:
Lanks – (27g, 24a, 51p) pace, 19.4%
Joker – (12g ,39a, 51p) pace, 5.6%
I know I’m working backwards here, from counting stats back, but I have also included shooting % beside the numbers the players are projected to get based on the first quarter. To me, the only player looking like he has been shafted with bounces is Joker and likely for an increase in production. The Flames still as a team aren’t generating enough chances…across all lines IMO, and I think that the numbers are pointing to Iggy and Joker and other as corsi disasters because of the quality competition.
So, from a strictly output perspective, I’m not impressed by many of the forwards, less maybe Bourque, Dawes and the late ‘goals-only’ resurgence from Iggy.
by LawrenceS on Nov 23, 2009 9:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I am likely being a little bit hard on Boyd, because he hasn’t played and performed to the pace that he is currently on previously (by total points). His goal production isn’t taking the next step, that I would like to see, but it’s early. I think the organization has been holding Boyd back more than he himself has. That’s why I have high expectations for him.
by LawrenceS on Nov 23, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
On Boyd and such: there’s only so much guys can do when they play about 11 minutes a night and never get any PP time. It’d be nice to see more from him, but his ceiling is capped when you have other guys soaking up the prime ice time.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 10:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s my understanding that Boyd is playing much more this year than previous, has had time (albeit very very little) skating on the top line…or with Iggy and even seeing some PP time. Am I incorrect? This seemed to be things Keenan refused to do, almost as if he had a hate on for Boyd. With that, and his previous production on ‘just the scraps’. I see him as a play who can score 18-20 goals and 40 pts. Maybe I am expecting to much??
by LawrenceS on Nov 23, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s seeing less than 30 seconds of PP ice time per game. I haven’t sorted out the F’s to see how far down the pecking order that is, but a first estimate might be “low”.
And with that amount of ice time, you can bet it’s on the second PP with our shittier PP guys (i.e. Regehr).
by R O on Nov 23, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been looking for Boyd on the PP and haven’t seen him at all – even 30 seconds per game seems high, except a lot of that probably comes on the last 10 seconds or so of a PP as Sutter gets his next line on the ice, for the first post PP shift.
And I love Reggie more than anyone, but he does not belong on the PP at all – I’d rather see Pardy out there.
by maimster on Nov 23, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His Ice time has been 9:49, 12:52, 13:22 the last three years.
His PP Ice time has been 0:44, 0:59, 0:25. * I’m surprised by these numbers.
Even: 8:39 , 9:42, 11:23… quite a noticeable amount more at even. (~20% more)
by LawrenceS on Nov 23, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Whith a full season at last year’s production, +20% more ice-time…Boyd should have scored about 30-32 points. So, perhaps expecting him to get 40-50 this year is a bit much. If he holds pace for 37ish, I should be happy with that – it’s true. I’d like to see him hit the 15 goal mark though with a shooting percent of around what he has…9.7%
by LawrenceS on Nov 23, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Flames have played about 2 minutes a game more at EV than they averaged last season, so someone has to get those minutes. With Bert and Cammalleri gone, Boyd would be a candidate for an extra shift or two at EV, and he’s gotten them.
As for Boyd’s PP TOI amongst regular forwards, he’s 8th, behind Iginla, Jokinen, Dawes, Moss, Langkow, Bourque and Glencross.
I think the only significant difference for Boyd is, as Kent just alluded to, that Sutter has given him more time with guys like Moss or Glencross, not with Iggy-Joker. He doesn’t always get stuck with Prust or McGrattan.
by Robert Cleave on Nov 23, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s playing more, sure, and in better circumstances (ie; not the 4th line), but he’s still well outside of the prime area. He’s actually scoring at a decent pace right now at ES (2.14 ESP/60), where 2.00/60 is a pretty decent rate.
He’s not seeing any power play time at all (0:25/night) and averages about 11 minutes a game at ES. Scoring 20 goals and 40 points with that type of ice time would be quite the feat.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He’d be about where Moss was at EV. Moss averaged about 11 minutes a game at EV, and scored 12 EV goals. Boyd is on pace for 12 EV goals. Moss didn’t have the hardest comp, and enjoyed better overall linemates, but the big difference in their boxcars will almost certainly end up being due to the extra 1:25 a night Moss got on the PP last year.
by Robert Cleave on Nov 23, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify that last bit, that’s the extra 1:25 a night on the PP for Moss in 08/09 as compared to Boyd this year.
by Robert Cleave on Nov 23, 2009 10:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the real issue is that Langkow and Bourque have held their heads above water despite similar circumstances to Jokinen and Iginla who have been absolutely buried in terms of chances and possession. If Iginla’s line had been holding it’s own – or dominating, as one would hope for from $12M+ forwards – the team would be a lot better for it.
That said, the Flames escaped the first 20 with a pretty good record thanks to some nice SH% and Kipper playing.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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