What Ails the Flames...Prescriptions?
by Kent Wilson on Nov 2, 2009 6:07 PM PST
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PrintIt may seem absurd to be dissatisfied with the team after a 7-4-1 opening month. But I am. A relatively soft schedule and a lot of favorable bounces hid the fact that the Flames played mostly mediocre hockey in October and will be in line for a "correction" down the road if they don't turn things around.
Their struggles are best reflected by their shot differential: -5.1/game. That's one of the worst differentials in the league, which is especially disconcerting given the fact that the Flames primary strength last year was possession/outshooting.
What's perhaps more worrisome is the fact that it's Calgary's money players up front that are the deepest under water. Jokinen and Iginla have the worst relative corsi rates amongst regular forwards, and that's despite the fact that neither of them has been seeing the tough going for the last couple of weeks. As a result, they are both scoring at about the rate of your average 4th liner at ES right now (1.63 ESP/60 for Iginla, 1.36 ESP/60 for Jokinen) and it's not like they're knocking it out of the park defensively or on special teams to make up for it.
The good news is, it looks like the support players are going to be quality again. Which means the team should be able to keep it's head above water while things are straightened out with the Captain and Pumpkinhead...assuming they can be, of course.
Pursuant to some comments in RO's post game thread, here's some line-up changes I would make if the organization was silly enough to hand me the keys to the bench for a night:
Bourque - Langkow - Iginla
The "second line" has continued to be relatively effective, despite being fed to the wolves over the last few games. Rene Bourque has probably been the Flames best forward through the first dozen contests and Daymond Langkow is indisputably the best center on the team in terms of two-way play. This is a trio that could probably do the heavy lifting, as long as Iginla rediscovers some measure of his previous effectiveness.
Glencross - Conroy - Moss
In many ways, this line drove the bus for the Flames last year. They were outstanding at moving the puck in the right direction and were instrumental in setting the pricier players up at the good end of the rink with a lot of offensive zone draws. Conroy doesn't have the hands anymore, but he still has one of the best corsi rates on the club, despite a team worst zone start ratio. Not sure how he does it, quite frankly. Glencross and Moss haven't looked quite as good lately so maybe a reunion is in order.
Boyd - Jokinen - Dawes
Honestly, I'd prefer to see Boyd in the middle and Jokinen playing the wing, but that's probably never going to happen. Dawes and Boyd have both taken turns at looking pretty damn good this year and I think the pair of them can do damage, at least against lesser lights. Jokinen has looked awful no matter who he's played with or against, but to be fair, playing him with guys like Nystrom and/or Sjostrom isn't going net you much beyond breaking even most nights. This line would have to be carefully managed, but that's probably true of any trio that includes Jokinen at this point. At least play him with some guys that have some hope of scoring some goals now and then. This could double as the 2nd PP unit as well.
Sjostrom - Prust - Nystrom
This threesome kicked the oppositions teeth in a bunch to start the season so I'd like to see them put back together.
At some point, the Flames will have to get at least one of Iginla or Jokinen going. The primary emphasis is going to be on the players to figure things out, but it's probably best to put them in a position to succeed in an effort to kick start the rebound.
Feel free to disagree vehemently and share your own combos in the comments.
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That Jokinen line is going to be a target on the road, but I’m not sure what else is out there. If the Flames go that route, it’ll take some pretty aggressive bench management to ensure they play third-stringers. I haven’t a clue if there’s any hope of Jokinen ever being a plus against anyone, but I do think at least one of Boyd/Dawes should be with him, for the reasons you mention. It doesn’t exactly fill me with good feelings that we don’t think the second highest paid forward on the team can realistically be expected to succeed against second level comp, but barring a trade, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you wish you had, right?
Personally, I would rather see the lines tried as this:
Bourque-Lanks-Iggy
GlenX-Jokinen-Moss
Dawes-Conroy-Boyd
Sjo-Pro-Nys
I have this to say about Jokinen. He is currently on pace to score 14 goals and 40 points this season, which he is likely to do better than. I know that this cannot be proven, but at some point the bounces have got to start going his way. Historically, he has been on shittier teams, playing in worse scenarios and he has averaged 34 goals and 38 assists (72 points) over the last 6 years. Keep in mind these have been non-playoff teams, with likely less offensive help for the Finn. I don’t think playing him on lines that will be a ‘target’ (which may not be possible to avoid) or on the third line is going to assist his improvement much.
I don’t know why Jokinen is sicking so much right now, but it should change, I hope.
The other guy….Jarmoe. He doesn’t fill me with much optimism. He is on pace for 27 goals and 62 points. He has scored similar numbers on three occasions – ‘99-’00, ‘02-’03 and ‘05-’06. The ‘05-’06 campaign he played every games, where the others he missed about 7 games. The point is – we have seen similar Jarome’s before (by coungint numbers anyway) but I don’t remember him looking so awful in those years. Maybe it was a poor luck year, maybe it was something else. The point is, I have no high hopes that Jarome has been unlucky or a slow starter this season.
Ultimately, we need both of them to get much, much better. I haven’t liked what see from either of them, with exception of a few shifts. I am inclined to believe that Jokinen can be better…it’s just a matter of figuring out how to make it happen. The only other thing I can imagine is that there is some ‘outside factor’ that makes him suck in Calgary – which if that’s the case, he needs to be traded ASAP.
Those are fair points, although Jokinen has never been a player of Jarome’s quality (in terms of playing tough comp) and his advanced stats are even worse than Iginla’s, despite slightly easier circumstances.
Besides his various issues, Jokinen’s main problem in terms of ratcheting up the counting stats is shots on goal…he currently has 22 in 12 games, good for 1.8/game. That’s an abysmal total for an “offnsive center” playing 18 minutes a night. He’ll need to vastly increase that rate in order to get back on track.
Part of the problem, I think, is that Jokinen has always been a guy who makes hay on the PP and the Flames haven’t been drawing many penalties so far – he and Jarome have averaged less than 3 minutes of ice on the man advantage per game, which is a really low average for first unit guys (Iginla was up near 5/game last year by comparison). Im guessing if the team starts getting the calls, the guys will start putting up nicer numbers by virtue of increased PP time.
However, I don’t know if I can predict an improvement at ES in terms of outscoring – especially for Jokinen in particular, because that’s never really been his bag.
I don’t know how Phoenix did it but they managed to sell Jokinen low and get a price as if they sold high.
Let’s assume for the moment that Sutter realizes that Jokinen must go. Not a hard leap of logic to make, the results from every angle are horrible and prior history is, at best, soft-minute scorer.
Who could we “sell high” to? Burke is a possibliity. Toronto is losing, of course they don’t deserve to so low in the standings but W’s color perceptions. How much so is an open question, I doubt MLSE’s wanting for cash but there is a limit to all things and extended losing streaks often require change for the sake of change. And Burke, well I don’t know the man’s body of work that well and I’m a bit too lazy to research that in full but I do know I was unimpressed with the D contracts he handed out this summer, Komisarek and Beauchemin don’t appear to be difference makers. Maybe D is his cowbell, he could be sharper with his F evaluations. But the losing streak colors everything, makes a grand larceny possible imo, and if I were in Sutter’s shoes I would make a phone call.
by R O on Nov 2, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions
i like this
With Boyd’s performance this year I think the BoJoDa line could go against second or third string talent capably. Doubly so if they get Bouw-Sarich behind them. If they were targeted with top line opposition, then it would be up to the first line to beat up on the other teams lesser lights.
Any thoughts on the defensive pairings. Sutter seems to be cycling them pretty regularly, but I have liked Bouw – Sarich Phaneuf reggie.
by CalTach on Nov 2, 2009 8:10 PM PST via mobile reply actions
The forwards are a bit of a dog’s breakfast, aren’t they? Most are dependable and you can point to quite a few forwards that you can trust against most anyone (Conroy, Langkow, Bourque, Glencross, Moss) but Jarome’s ineffectiveness is really throwing a wrench into everything.
I mean you look at the above players, all very fine players with good hockey sense and the ability to win battles and carry the puck through the neutral zone, but Jarome was just on another level. And having an effective Jarome means that all those guys can have their responsibilities dialed back one notch which just makes them more effective. An ineffective Jarome means we might just be breaking even with our good 5v5 players.
Which would be JUST fine if Jokinen was good at scoring, and when we acquired him I thought that was his MO. He’s getting jobbed by %‘s but he’s also beyond ineffective vs. any level of comp – who could’ve anticipated that? So now the Flames are devoid of soft-minute scoring threats (e.g. Kane on the Hawks) and so breaking even with our good 5v5 players is no longer a path to success. We need to earn our goals honestly, outscore every level of competition from elite to dregs.
Which is how I prefer we do it anyway, my bias I suppose. But that hinges on Iginla being good. I can live with Jokinen being putrid, he’s outta here soon enough. But Iginla is key.
Speaking of Bourque though: he’s been on the Oilogosphere radar for a while. Years in fact. He had some ungodly run of goalposts some time ago, his SH% might have been ridiculously high last season but he faced the toughest comp in getting those results, doing it again this season and creating more than he’s giving up from my eye. Granted he’s doing it in offensive situations, but that suits his skillset well (winning puck battles mainly) and I’d love to see if he can ratchet up to full tough minutes every night (starting from D-zone or when the puck’s moving south, against the top F’s and D’s). I bet he could, he is a ferocious backchecker and his decision making seems sound which is probably what we need if he’s going to be placed in that role. It would hurt his counting numbers, which is all the better imo since he’s going UFA next summer.
That’s a lot of words. All of it is to say: wonderful player, could be a poor man’s Iginla and appears to want to stay in Calgary. He’s the best bet for a stopgap between Iginla and the next true difference-maker forward on the Flames.
I think I’d like to revise and extend my remarks, as political types are given to say. I wonder if the other possible option is this:
Bourque-Langkow-Iginla
Boyd-Jokinen-Moss
Glencross-Conroy-Dawes
PrustStrom
R O points out the solid citizens above quite accurately, which makes me wonder if you really want to put Jokinen with none of them. I guess the other thing that crossed my mind is that the Flames’ two best shooters, by reputation at least, are Iginla and Jokinen. The two most creative centers are Langkow and, at this point, Boyd. The fact that Boyd would have to play on the wing is unfortunate, but I wonder if Jokinen could use a guy with a different skill set on his line. Sutter has made the point that Jokinen has always been the focal point of a line, and he needs to be more rounded. That’s all very nice, but the guy has one high end NHL skill, and putting him on a line without someone acting as a set-up man may not be taking full advantage of what you have, IMO. Boyd seems to have moved his overall level of play up to the point where I don’t worry as much as I might have about his being paired with Jokinen. Moss could round out that line, and I don’t see why that third group couldn’t be OK, given that they’d be against the lesser lights. None of the foregoing will help the fact that Jokinen looks lost from his own red line back, but if he’s not getting traded before Wednesday, he needs to get some sort of offensive game going at a minimum. I’d like to see Boyd get that chance.
A lot to take in, I might have more to comment on Jokinen being shletered by a couple of good wingers, but I will say this: we’ll also have to throw Regehr or Sarich behind them. Because Jokinen is a fucking cheating cheater in the D-zone, you’d think he’d try to help the D out when the puck’s in deep but odds on he’s floating past the faceoff dots instead. And he’s always the fucking centre on his line!!!! Unbelievable.
Fuck me, I feel like popping an aneurysm. I bet you Regehr will too if Sutter decides he’s the unlucky bastard who’ll clean up Olli’s mess. I foresee a lot of Regehr media soundbites, not of the good kind.
by R O on Nov 2, 2009 9:48 PM PST up reply actions
R O, I’m half-hoping that Boyd ends up as center by default if he plays long enough with Jokinen. I realize that’s likely folly, but I just don’t see how having him be the creator on his line is working. If Jokinen isn’t being actively managed to get Getzlaf 06/07 ice time, the other team’s choices to play against his line will likely dictate one of the top two pairs behind him most of the time anyway. And yes, I could see how Jokinen’s play could cause a potential schism, publicly or otherwise. None of us are happy, and we’re just watching. I doubt his co-workers like it any better.
by Robert Cleave on Nov 3, 2009 4:27 AM PST up reply actions
I was actually thinking that Sutter should double up the power behind Iginla’s unit with Bouwmeester/Regehr and then play Phaneuf/Giordano behind Jokinen’s line, assuming they’re getting the favorable match-ups.
If they get favorable matchups then I would agree. Whoever’s running the D on the bench (who’s doing this anyway, do we know?) has got to be very astute. Normally I wouldn’t even worry about this since the centres are supposed to be pretty damn responsible in terms of going after the puck in the D-zone, but Jokinen just doesn’t do it. So the D have to win his battles for him. Against a Zetterberg or a Marleau I’d be a lot happier if Sarich were on that.
Although I’d be even happier if Phaneuf was dependable enough to win that battle outright. We shall see….
by R O on Nov 3, 2009 7:15 AM PST up reply actions
I know that it drove us all crazy, but we went from a coach who changed lines so fast that you couldn’t expect anything, let alone chemistry, to one who seems to be going to slow. Now, we’re all yelling at the internerd in hopes of somehow having this collective dissonance reach Sutter so that he changes up the lines a bit quicker. If I weren’t a Flames fan this would probably strike me as much more humorous – but it doesn’t really.
On a general note I wasn’t unhappy with how Keenan changed lines. It’s one of the things a coach can control.
Some of his lines were out of whack (Bertuzzi doing PVP with Iggy? Gimme a fuckin’ break) and his ice time distribution, while sensible for the most part (yeah Bertuzzi really needs cherry minutes to succeed) was also insensible at times (Bertuzzi is so bad everywhere that you might as well give those cherry minutes to someone else). But on the whole, a lot of his ideas (Tanguay in a tough-minutes role, trying to get his best scorer Iggy onto soft comp now and again) were excellent and mostly worked.
by R O on Nov 3, 2009 7:55 AM PST up reply actions
The 7-4-1 record is pretty good considering how they have played. The top 2 forwards, Regehr and Kipper can all play much better. I loved the quote on the radio yesterday from Phanuef, he knew the pounding at the end of practice was because they were practing poorly. That’s a coach getting a message through.
Imagine if they had decent efforts against Detroit and Colorado – they could easily be 9-2-1. Who wants to be that good in October ? Frankly if they go 7-5 over the next four 12 game segements but play better I’ll be satisfied. If they are 35-25 at game 60 and steadily improving; that’s what will translate in to a successful playoff.
We can analyze and juggle lines, but clearly there are 2 guys who are not performing the way they can. When they do; THAT changes the chemistry of the team. I think Iggy will come around, but am not sold on Jokinen; and may end up being an expensive 3rd line centre.
I’m much more concerned about Iggy than the Joker. Iggy is stlil the heart of the lineup and has to be for the next 2-3 years for this roster ot work. I don’t care about how bad his numbers are, it’s watching him that is so hard. If he’s truly lost his burst to speed by guys and doesn’t have strength to win board battles, what’s left? We’re seeing an unprecedented dropoff in skill level right before our eyes – we keep saying that Iggy’s not performing the way he can, but what if he is performing as well as he can? That scares the shit out of me.
Jokinen is already a sunk cost and is gone after this year – if he improves 25-40% (which I think is almost certain to happen, he’s truly not this bad) he’ll be useful, not worth his contract but that’s already fait accompli. He could improve 100% and that makes no difference if Iggy is done.
Yeah, Im not terribly worried about Jokinen either. he can be hid for a year and then dropped.
Another issue with Iginla is his release isn’t anywhere near as fast as it once was. He used to be a monster at coming off the boards or getting a pass with little room in a scoring area and sniping it without hesitation. He can’t seem to do that anymore or at least not to the same degree.
Any chance that the line combination at today’s practice – Iggy/Joker/Nystrom – is just a smokescreen? We’re not trying that again, are we?
No way that line faces top opposition or even close, at least from Sutter’s perspective.
But you know the opposing coach will have a say in that too. They will most likely target Iginla, whether it’s his rep or because they’ve watched game tape and noticed his decline, or notice that Sutter’s going to actively keep him away from their best.
And while Bourque/Langkow/Dawes are a good 5v5 trio, they’re not going to scare any coach into shaping their gameplan around them. They’ll happily throw secondary guys at them if necessary. Maybe get outscored a bit, and then get it all back vs. Iggy/Jokinen. So Sutter will have the matchups dicated to him many games. If he continues to use Iggy and Jokinen together, and put a lightweight like Nystrom on the opposite wing.
So no, there’s no way that combo lasts more than one or two shifts imo. It’d be chaos.
But if you know that, and I know that, I’d have to assume there is no way Sutter doesn’t know that. So why practice with them together?
Shit at a wall, I suppose.
And all this is predicated on Iginla not being effective. Totally different story if he is effective imo.
And really, impact forwards should be able to function at Iginla’s age. He’s not 40, and there’s no injury history (that we know of). So frustrating, we keep holding out hope, because we have to.
by R O on Nov 3, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
Actually, I should probably take “shit at a wall” back. I can’t see an angle as to why Sutter would try that line combo. But I generally have a lot of respect for NHL coaches, perhaps there is something I’m not seeing.
by R O on Nov 3, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions
The only thing I can think of is Sutter doesn’t believe Iginla and/or Jokinen will be this shitty forever.
here’s what i was thinking tonight: is it possible that the opposition coaches might think that the defacto “first line” of iggy/jokinen/whomever, on their home ice, should see the toughest opposition DEFENSE, but the try to run their best OFFENSE against our third or fourth line ? it’s kindof like trying to think how they think or some similar catch22 but maybe sutter banks on purely out-coaching the bad guys.
yeah, i know. it’s a longshot. i’m just grasping at straws to understand why the hell those two would ever be let out together… their plus/minus is gonna look like a hella good golf score by weeks’ end….
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