Scoring Chances Games 1-10
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 13, 2009 12:33 AM PST
7 comments
As I'm sure most of you know, Kent Wilson has been tracking scoring chances for each and every Flames game so far this season. I've put together a chart collecting the data for each of the first ten games the Flames have played and will continue to do so in ten game segments. I promise the next one will be a bit more timely! At any rate, I think scoring chances are another good tool for fans to use when evaluating the strength of their team and/or particular players.
For those who are unfamiliar with the scoring chance metric, a player is given a chance any time someone on the ice has a chance to score. He is given a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score, just like +/-. The graph is broken down into three game states, EV situations, PP situations (excluding 5v3) and SH situations (excluding 5v3). At EV I've also included a "scoring chance percentage" which is the number of "chances for" divided by the the total number of chances for both teams when a given player is on the ice. The players are all represented by their jersey numbers and initials. Special thanks are due to Dennis King for starting the counting trend last season and Vic Ferrari for creating an application that makes the game-to-game tallying much easier. Without further ado, I'll present the data here (my own analysis of the data can be found here):
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Thanks Scott. I have to say, a 50-50 split at EV (in essence anyway) isn’t bad per se, but it’s no hell for a team spending to the cap and in a Cup-winning window.
Although I am pretty happy with the special teams splits, given how Calgary has taken a lot more penalties than it has drawn.
Thanks again for doing this.
by R O on Nov 13, 2009 7:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I gotta say, it’s better than I expected for the 1st 10 games. I expect the next 10 summary will be significantly better.
by Subversive on Nov 13, 2009 8:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
50-50 isn’t good exactly but it’s way better than any of Edmonton, Minnesota and Colorado which should go a long way in finding the Flames a spot in the playoffs. Especially since of those three other teams I only expect Minnesota to improve.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 13, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True, and it also includes probably the worst stretch of the year for the clubs two highest paid forwards and a period of adjustment for the team as a whole. I think I’ve liked most of what I’ve seen out of Calgary in games 11-16 (aside from the dreadful Dallas Stars game), so I would actually expect both corsi and scoring chances to improve going forward.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 13, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks putting that up, Scott.
I’ll probably do my own analysis of the data coming up here.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 13, 2009 8:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
No problem Kent. Thanks for pointing me to the one game that was on this here site. Given the extent of their out-shot-ness I was surprised at how well the Flames did with scoring chances.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 13, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, if I remember the game correctly, the Flames came out and dominated the Canucks for the first half of the game, built a big lead and then spent the rest of the contest on their heels trying to fend off Vancouver’s come back attempt. As such, some of the disparity is playing to score effects.
by Kent Wilson on Nov 13, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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