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Scoring Chances

NHL.com Recap

There's a bit of fan wisdom from baseball that says that every team wins 50 games and loses 50 games, just because. It's the other 62 games that decide your season.

It applies to hockey too, almost perfectly I'd say. You are going to lose at least 20 games no matter how good you are, just because. Sometimes you are the better team and just don't win. Sometimes you aren't the better team.

Calgary was not the better team, last night. And we might just lose more than 20 games this season.

Star-divide

Breakdowns

First
EV Shots On Goal : 5-8
EV Shots Toward Net : 13-21
EV Faceoff Starts : 5-5
 
Second
EV Shots On Goal : 6-12
EV Shots Toward Net : 14-18
EV Faceoff Starts : 4-6
 
Third
EV Shots On Goal : 8-5
EV Shots Toward Net : 13-7
EV Faceoff Starts : 9-3
 
Overall
EV Shots On Goal : 19-25
EV Shots Toward Net : 40-46
EV Faceoff Starts : 18-14

Normally a breakdown like the above against Detroit is a bit of a small victory. But Detroit's forward depth has been depleted by injury. Granted, the Wings smoked the Avs, Canucks and Oilers - being 4th least pathetic team is some consolation prize.

The Flames actually had quite a few scoring chances (or maybe as Kent puts them, chances to get scoring chances) last night. The Flames at EV were getting players and pucks to scoring areas starting from the first shift of the first period. They only got one goal on the night but shit happens, it's the effort that's important.

And the effort was there, for about 130 feet of the rink. From the blueline back the Flames were a mess. The Wings built up zone time and chances at chances at an alarming rate due to the Flames forwards' ineptitude at a.) supporting the puck after the D retrieved Red wing dump-ins, and b.) breaking up the cycle along the boards. The F's cheated high all night, looking for long breakout passes that don't work against teams with active forechecks, i.e. good teams. You would think the Flames would know this, seeing as how they're aiming to be a good team.

I was so unimpressed with Iginla last night. It was quite possibly the worst game I've ever seen him play, and he had some stinkers last year. He started off against Datsyuk and Lidstrom, generated that early chance in the first, and then just spent extended periods being awful everywhere. In the defensive zone, it's like he was afraid to touch the opposition for fear of separating them from the puck. In the offensive zone, he gave away the puck in many ways (getting outmuscled doing old Iggy stuff, having his pass intercepted doing new Iggy stuff). Sutter noticed and moved him off to the Zetterberg matchup early in the second, and he fared no better.

It's just.... it's frustrating. The guy's getting paid $7M at an age where impact forwards are still impact forwards (even if declining) and we absolutely need him to take on tough minutes, this season at least.

Brent Sutter said it best:

Jarome ... did not have a good game

Amen, Brent, a-fucking-men.

The Bouwmeester/Sarich pairing were excellent I thought. Plays in particular that I noticed:

  • Sarich did his best Scott Niedermayer impression going up and down ice in the second
  • Bouwmeester standing up Datsyuk, who is one slippery bastard, deep in a transition.

Actually I can't complain about any of the D tonight, considering how badly the forwards were cheating. The fact that we were only -12 EV shots-attempted through two periods and -6 EV shots-attempted on the night - it speaks to how solid the D were without forward support, I would think.

The third period was also a dim light. Detroit was shutting it down a bit but it's not like a 2-1 lead puts the game out of reach so at least part of the territorial advantage was due to Calgary actually playing well. Some quality chances came out of it too, I remember one from Bourque just before that scary skate incident.

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I thought Boyd was strong again and it was good to see him “rewarded” with some shifts at the top of the rotation in the third. Bourque continues to be one of the best players on the ice as well.

Glencross and Moss have been pretty pedestrian recently. Part of me would really like to see them reunited on the third unit with Conroy or Boyd so they could beat up on other third lines again…

by Kent Wilson on Nov 1, 2009 1:15 PM PST reply actions  

Glencross got caught on the second goal doing exactly what you don’t want to have happen. He tried to cheat up ice, got pickpocketed by Datsyuk, and in the net it went.

Iginla attempted one shot. One.

by Robert Cleave on Nov 1, 2009 1:23 PM PST reply actions  

And that on home ice with Brent Sutter pulling all sorts of tricks trying to get him some favorable circumstances. That’s just…

by Kent Wilson on Nov 1, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Putrid? Pathetic? Stunning? Shocking? Depressing? Indescribable?

by maimster on Nov 1, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Disappointing game by Iginla – even as much as to admit it in the postgame scrum. It’s DETROIT for crying out loud … and you leave your “A” game at home??? Does anyone feel my thoughts of concern? I’ve always believed he’ll get his shots … but the battles along the boards, protecting the puck, winning matchups against the top opposition etc that he was so dominant in … I don’t see them as much anymore ….

by Calgarian in SJ on Nov 1, 2009 1:36 PM PST reply actions  

He apparently hasn’t scored in 18 straight games against DET or something. And, given the way he played against good teams last year, this is nothing new for Jarome.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 1, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Jarome

didnt see the game but the stat line for Jarome 5 turnovers with no shots on goal and -2 in 18 + minutes. Hard to believe. Is there any reason to believe that he will get out of this funk. i think the days of a standout power forward are over and we are looking at a slightly above average player at 7 + million a year.

by Ricky G on Nov 1, 2009 4:38 PM PST reply actions  

Iginla would have to improve to become a slightly above average player at this point.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 1, 2009 4:45 PM PST reply actions  

That game can be summed up by the empty net goal. Seriously… WTF was that?

Lame.

Iggy sucks more than Jokinen lately (and for perhaps even longer) I know Jokinen is the whipping boy around these parts, but there were a few times last night where Joker, Moss and Fast Freddie were flying. Iggy and GlenX were puke. I think Iggy is the fucking plague right now, which pains me to say.

Well, continuing the trend of getting a ‘one-at-a-time’ decent performances out of the big ticket fellas:

Last night: 0.931% ev sv%, Highlight reel: 4-2

Game stats Kipper: 7-3-1 – .901% (.916% ev)
.920 sv% +: 4 of 11
sv% >/= opp. sv%: 8 of 11
<27 s/a: 2 of 11
>30 s/a: 6 of 11
>33 s/a: 4 of 11

Highlight reel: 41 – 27

by LawrenceS on Nov 1, 2009 10:59 PM PST reply actions  

That entire sequence with an empty net described perfectly how the Flames played the entire night: sloppy and lazy.

What you saw was a puck carrier moving so slowly that the rest of the team was caught standing around, and five players standing around waiting on the puck carrier to do something. Three times they failed to even gain the bloody zone because nobody on the ice wanted to actually put some effort into it. Reggie’s turnover was just the icing on the cake.

That was, quite possibly, the worst game the Flames have played since they lost game 7 to Anaheim in 06.

by Resolute on Nov 2, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions  

slow start

Maybe I am transposing kipper onto iggy here, but prior to last season, was there not always the perfunctory media articles about iggy’s slow start? I always thought it was an october tradition.

I notice no such noise this season. I wonder if brent sutter’s refusal to treat iggy differently is filtering down to the masses.

Whatever the reason, here’s hoping it is just a slow start and not something more permanent.

by CalTach on Nov 2, 2009 6:53 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

I think that depends on if you are measuring Iggy by counting numbers or by quality minutes. iginla is always going to put up decent counting numbers – he plays with his best teammates regularly, he gets tons of ice time, powerplay time and can really beat up on weak teams. However, this year is a reflection of last, where the quality minutes are not consistently there. IMO this was an occurance which lasted all of last year, albeit, in spurts, even if he finished with good counting numbers. I beleive the same is true this season, and what we thought was Jokinen dragging him down, wasn’t. Let’s face it, it was not Olli. Both Jokinen and Iginla are doing just fine on there own…at doing nothing.

by LawrenceS on Nov 2, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Problem is, Iginla’s counting stats aren’t even good this year. And whereas his advanced stats were merely average last season, they’re positively abysmal thus far. I’d have to say this is the “slowest start” we’ve seen from Iginla in a decade because there isn’t much evidence that suggests things are going to improve.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 2, 2009 8:12 AM PST up reply actions  

So if Sutter is really a P v P guy, and he still thinks Iginla is going to be his best player, when does the Bourque-Langkow-Iginla line happen? The first two are certainly the best forwards on the team, and I do find it interesting that Keenan and Sutter have both been reluctant to try them as a line for an extended period. The last 20 seconds of the second period on Saturday was the only time Iginla looked alive, and it was with those two vs. the Zetterberg line with Lidstrom and Rafalski. I understand the desire to balance things out, but the whole team’s structure, whatever the management might say publicly, is built around productivity from Iginla. If he’s not going, their long term prognosis is poor.

by Robert Cleave on Nov 2, 2009 9:14 AM PST up reply actions  

I was going to write a post today on “fixing the Flames” and that was going to be my first order of business – move Iginla with Langkow and Bourque. It creates problems elsewhere, but it probably still makes sense. As it is right now, the Flames only have one really high functioning line and neither of their highest paid forwards are on it.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 2, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Iginla-Langkow-Bourque-Conroy-Glencross-Moss

… is how I envision this team’s top six forwards in order of difficulty of minutes played, anyway. So far it has been mostly thus, a few minor rearrangements with Dawes subbing in for Moss due to injury. It hasn’t all worked and I blame Iginla quite a bit but Conroy and Glencross haven’t gotten it done either. Of course maybe they’re just not capable of handling first-line opposition, which makes your suggestion of Lanks and Bourque to be quite good.

And it would be perfectly fine, in fact I think it would be a great setup as both lines could conceivably outscore the opp by a bit. Problem being that this sort of setup brings the most benefits when a third unit is available to score tons on soft-minutes, and it’s sad to say but Jokinen hasn’t even shown he is capable of that.

And of course, as WI says below I want Boyd auditioned in a higher role some games just to see if he can handle tough comp. Because it’s probably critical in the long run for Sutter Sr. to know whether he has to go out of org for the heavy-lifting centre role when Conroy retires.

by R O on Nov 2, 2009 11:55 AM PST up reply actions  

i think alot about backlund v. boyd. daz is on record saying that if backlund isn’t on the first two lines with the big club, he’s playing elsewhere (and has made good on this thusfar). boyd was given a different role in his development: role playing/good defensive/strong PK/hard forechecking pivot. he has proven his ability in that, and looks to be ready for a promotion, IMO.

the next two games will be tough. i’d like to see what boyder can do.

by walkinvisible on Nov 2, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

i gotta ask —-to anybody who actually WATCHED the detroit game (cause i was unable to): is there a reason that iginla/jokinen/moss are all -2 ? as in: was sutter actually sending those three out as a line during the game, or was it just bad luck between line changes ?

personally, i’d love to see boyd moved waaay the hell up the ranks and get some time with iggy. not that i think it’ll necessarily work (i don’t necessarily think that ANYTHING will work) but perhaps a young, energetic, imaginative centre is what iggy needs, not a continuous parade of washed up pivots who never shoot on net.

by walkinvisible on Nov 2, 2009 11:38 AM PST reply actions  

I don’t know which genius came up with the idea of counting empty-netters in an EV stat but that’s what it was.

by R O on Nov 2, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

ah. right… but my question still stands: were they out TOGETHER, and if yes…..WHY ?!?!?

by walkinvisible on Nov 2, 2009 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Iggy and Jokinen were definitely out together in the third. They weren’t on the ice together at all in the first and second as far as I could tell, the Jokinen unit got scored on first and the Iggy unit second though. And of course when it was get-a-goal time I don’t think Sutter had any choice but to get these two out there together.

by R O on Nov 2, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

i know there’s a reason i’m not an NHL coach, but i would suggest that putting jokinen and iginla out when it’s “get a goal time” was precisely why it didn’t happen…. how about guys that can actually put it in the net, so let’s say: bourque, dawes and (by default) daymond langkow. after that, maybe try reminding the wings what a moss-conroy-glenX line could do.

i’ve said it once, i’ll say it a thousand times: olli and iggy do not work.

by walkinvisible on Nov 2, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Just my two cents:
1. The Flames have big investments in those two – albeit Jokinen for only this year.
2. The Sutters are a stubborn brood; Darryl coveted Olli for some time, the grand design was Olli and Jarome together, tearing up the league, LOL.
3. And Darryl never … and I mean NEVER … will ever admit he ever made a mistake. *I witnessed it here in SJ even when he had a lineup that was loaded to the gills with firepower, and his interviews were a precursor to Calgary. Lombardi scouted and got him the talent … he just coached it.

I think it’s fair to say …. Olli has been a mistake. Geez, I wish I would’ve been wrong.

So the question begs:
… what “type” of player plays well with Iginla? We’ve seen more than a few on the Flames top line carousel…. I always thought that Tanguay’s style was the perfect complement to Iggy, a slick setup man that skates good, good hockey sense, and dishes to pockets when deep in the zone … didn’t happen. ??

by Calgarian in SJ on Nov 2, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions  

What type of player plays well with Iginla? A good one.

I don’t know if player types are all that relevant. Some guys pass more, some guys shoot, some guys dangle and some guys win board battles. There’s a bunch of ways to skin the cat, but really…as long as you’re moving the puck in the right direction and outshooting the opposition, there isn’t any one “type” of player that is needed, I think. It makes sense to match-up a shooter with a passer and vice versa, but, in the end, a guy who can reliably take on tough competition is what Iginla needs more than anything at this point.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 2, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

And at this point, it probably doesn’t matter who you put with him, because he’s dragging everyone down with him. All we can do is hope it improves.

by Subversive on Nov 2, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions  

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