Battle of Alberta 1.0 Post game
by Kent Wilson on Oct 4, 2009 10:55 AM PDT
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Well, for the second straight game the Flames were handily outshot but managed to escape with a victory. Some would council against looking a gift horse in the mouth, but that's precisely what I'm going to do. Let's face it everyone - if Calgary continues to play like this, they're going to lose more than they win.
I liked a lot of what I heard from players and coaches during the off-season about a return of structure and an emphasis on defensive play. I am thus far unimpressed with the results, however. The Flames are having a lot of issues in their own currently and defending the neutral zone hasn't been much better. By eye, the Flames are having a lot of problems transitioning from the puck from the defense to the forwards in the defensive zone, especially when it concerns the wingers. The break out is being stuffed a lot by pinching defenders and causing a lot of problems. In addition, Calgary seems to be giving up a lot of point shots and opportunities. And although the club seemed to be trying to clutter the neutral zone when Edmonton had possession last night, the Oilers nevertheless had little problems breaking through and entering the Flames zone.
Other problems I noticed:
- First line was again rather bland at ES. I've been tough on Jokinen in my discussions thus far, but I think Jarome has actually been the weak link on the first unit. He's doing nothing with his ice time currently. In fact, he's been a liability more than anything. Plays died on his stick more than once on Saturday, he gave the puck away needlessly several times and he seems to be struggling with his decision making. Four minutes in penalties and one shot on net is a goat worthy performance from the Captain, who hasn't even looked 75% to me yet. Jarmoe in full effect.
- Speaking of stars struggling, Robyn Regehr was also abysmal last night. He had all sorts of issues with puck retrieval and it was his terrible give-away that led to the first goal against. He lost more puck battles than I'm used to last night and he was off on a couple of his reads. Reggie occassionally goes through these bouts of crapitude, so we can only hope that it ends sooner rather than later. Ended the night -2 and could have been further in the hole if not for some good bounces and decent performance from Kipper.
Just so the post game isn't all about raining on the parade, here's the stuff I liked from last night:
- Nigel Dawes was also -2, but I thought he was very strong overall. He was very quick and tenacious in the offensive zone and create a number of opportunities.
- Curtis Glencross and David Moss, though now on different lines, were both very good again. For my money, they're both superior to whoever is wearing Iginla's uniform right now.
- Jay Bouwmeester...another 2 assists, +1 and 30 minutes of ice.
- Aside from a hiccup or two, I thought the 4th line showed well again.
I've openly theorized that Calgary would struggle to adjust under the new regime for the first couple of weeks, so let's hope that's all we're seeing here. An average of 37 shots against in the first two games is the polar opposite of what the team is aiming for this season. Only some good goaltending, opportunistic scoring and very favorable bounces have the Flames at 2-0 at this point. The first line also has to have more impact - I'm not certain that's a coaching thing since what I'm seeing is eerily familiar to what was on display at the end of the season last season.
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The good news is that 22 SF and 38 SA per game is not sustainable. I don’t think a single team averaged either number last season.
The bad news is that the arrows aren’t pointing in the right direction, and the Flames percentages are not sustainable either.
I fully expect the shot totals and percentages to regress. My hope is that they regress to acceptable “Flames dominating” levels.
Jarome looks atrocious. Besides playing for Calgary I’m also disturbed about his Olympic possibilities. Lock to make the team but he could be the worst player.
Reggie looked bad last night on a couple plays. He’s way over playing the body right now, he needs to step back and simplify. I saw him get beat a couple times trying to go for big hits rather than containment.
For my money, put Langkow back with Iginla.
Guess who has the worst corsi and relative corsi rating on the club through 2 games? That’s right…Jokinen and Iginla. they’ve played tough competition and had their heads positively kicked in.
Two games is a small sample, but it’s a disturbing trend nonetheless.
Scratch that…the stats are only for the first game against Vancouver. We’ll see how things change once the Edmonton game gets counted. My guess – not much.
I’ve seriously never seen such a efficacy drop over such a short period of time. So far our sample size is so small as to be totally insignificant but if this trend keeps up the Flames are basically screwed if they keep Iginla. No way is he worth 7 for 3 years AFTER this one.
Forget trying to match him against soft opposition. The whole house of cards basically crumbles if you $7 million dollar man has to be sheltered.
Iginla with Langkow and Borque
I agree with the line idea-I’d try Iginla with Langkow and Borque. Iginla, maybe he’s hurt or has the flu-he always gives 100% if he’s healthy. Moss is suprising-a bonus for the Flames along with Glencross and Dawes. Maybe Jolkinen could benefit from these line-mates. The bottom line is winning and they’re doing it-somehow-thanks mostly to Kirpusoff and a rejuvenated power-play. Calgary’s third and fourth lines have been good enough to deserve promotions-second and third line, the number one line now becomes the fourth line until further notice.
Badger Bob would bench the stars and bring up players from the farm for a game or two, seemed to work. Remember how Kent Nilsson would play sporatically-is this a European player trait? Then I remember Hakan Loob always played hard-I don’t know what motivates the highest paid and supposedly most talented?
Early issues...
Butter is a detail man, this team will improve.
It may not be pretty, but this team is finding ways to bank points, and Kipper doesn’t look like his Jim Carrey-esque trajectory is continuing.
Keep in mind it wasn’t until November last year that this team hit stride (recall the Wine tour cancelled in No. Cal after a blowout loss in SJ)
J-Bouw is a stud.
Go Fire.
"It's a great day for hockey" - BBJ
by jealous broadcaster on Oct 4, 2009 12:11 PM PDT reply actions
I was passed out pretty early last night, and thanks agian to Kent for picking up after me, but I did notice that the Regher-Phaneuf pairing looked like it was trouble and not in a good way. History tempts me to blame Dion, but Regher looked overzealous in the bits I saw. I also saw from the highlights that Bouwmeester was out there with him in the last minute, so maybe that pairing will evolve sooner rather than later.
First line? Honestly, if they want to keep the Jokinen-Iginla pair together, they might need to face the second string. I suppose you could put Dawes with them on that sort of line, and use Bourque with Moss and Langkow to face the big hitters. That is not really my preference, and historically Sutter likes PvP, but having your main guns get pwned at EV and then hoping they make it up on the PP is a fool’s errand, IMO.
The problem is that Jokinen/Iginla will attract all the tough match-ups as a matter of course. It would take a lot for Sutter to get that duo away from the big boys because, without another “star” on the team, opposition coaches are going to target our perceived best with their best.
Very true. Randy Carlyle did it in 06/07, getting the “Nothing Line” out there against the best opposition, but that takes a level of rigour in line matching that very few coaches will adhere to, and it was also driven by Pahlsson et al having an unsustainable year of preventing offence. As I said, it isn’t my preference, because I know how much it screws up the other lines. The easy solution is splitting the two of them. I’d guess Iginla will keep getting the tough matches until other coaches perceive him differently, so he likely needs Langkow and Moss/Bourque as linemates to make it fly. I do have reservations about Jokinen and Dawes on the same line, because that looks like a group that would wear a target on its back at EV.
by Robert Cleave on Oct 4, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Weak Links
I know it’s early so these are my impressions solely based on the first two games, and not predictions going forward. To me, it seems every time a line goes out, there is one guy who is noticeably struggling compared to the others.
Line 1 – Iggy. Hands down. There was at least one shift when Iggy was in the box last night and Joker and Moss looked much more dominant. It’s tough to say, but he could be our worst player through two games.
Line 2 – Dawes (and only by a slight margin). He looked better last night and this second line is actually one that I am reasonably happy with. I don’t think Langkow has been exactly full value either.
Line 3 – Boyd. Boyd looks to me like he is challengeing Iggy for least effective on the team. I like Boyd, I really do, but thus far he isn’t making a compelling case for an increased role.
Line 4 – “The shoe” – The fourth line has been great, and maybe one of the most dominating thus far. 4th vs 4th and our guys are killing. Prust and Nystrom have been very consistent and Sjostrom has done his share of “wow, that was just what we needed” plays. However, the consistency isn’t at the level of the other two, and I’m still having nightmares about that “stick positioning” on the deflected Vancouver goal.
The Defense has been a good point considering who much we have been outplayed. JBo thus far is the real deal. He makes all the others look second rate.
Kipper has been great. If he can keep humming along at .920, we can start assuming solid performances will be the norm, as opposed to the rarity. However, I’m not convinced after only two games. McL should be in the spotlight soon as he’s likely to play 1 of every 5 games ….2 of 10…. 17 of 82. Look for him to play the next game vs the Oil.
It’ll be interesting to see what changes for Tuesday vs the undefeated Habs and Cammy. 2 days off, and I hear Sarich might be back? the way the Habs/Price are going, if we get outshot again, even if Kipper is flying, we lose…so Butter better get em better.
D for 3 and now goal for 21 years, of course I'm a goaltender apologist.
I’d agree except for maybe Boyd. He’s still finding his footing and is probably the weakest player on the line, but that’s what you get with a 23 year old 600k player. That said, I think he’s probably created more than Iginla has in the last two games and his assist on the Glencross goal was fantastic. If he could have buried one of the 4 glorious chances he’s had in the last 2 games, we’d probably be singing his praises.
There’s improvement needed there, but I’m not unhappy with his play.
Agreed, Boyd has made a few nice plays, but I’m talking weak link on the line (Connie and Glencross play great together) and I fully support the idea that he’s only a 600k player still finding his legs. That still doesn’t mean that he has been better than his linemates. As well, I’m not too concerned about Boyd being less effective at this point, so I’m not really going to argue that point too vigorously. First line still needs the attention.
D for 3 and now goal for 21 years, of course I'm a goaltender apologist.
the habs has been outshot by 19 against toronto and 18 against buffalo so they have the same problems.
also, losing markov will not help.
That’s precisely what I mean. they are in the same boat as the Flames, getting good goaltending and probably some lucky bounces & unsustainable sh%. So if they out shoot us, instead of being outshot as they have been, we could be in big trouble.
D for 3 and now goal for 21 years, of course I'm a goaltender apologist.
Maybe Iginla simply isn't that good anymore.
:-)
This taunt brought to you today by an extremely distraught Canucks fan.
Iginla will show up
With a little line juggling Iginla will be back, he needs to adapt to his new line-mates. I wouldn’t be worried yet-next game he will probably score a couple. Surprising what a couple of goals will do for confidence-that’s all Iginla lacks right now is confidence. Bottom line is Calgary has speed this year and is winning. OK-not firing on all four cylinders but a good start to the season thus far. None of what I say can be construed as I’m happy with the first line’s play-mix em up and find a new first line.
You couldn't of said it any better...
…I had the feeling on Thursday night and while watching the DVR replay of Saturday night (I was at the Miami/Oklahoma football game)…but it’s like I’m watching the March/April 2009 Flames all over again minus the urgency.
Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.
yeah Iginla has been weak
and I am glad to see you guys are on top form for spotting these things. I love this blog for how insightful and spot on the analysis is.
Kipper & blah blah
It is not a stretch to say Kipper has stolen both games. I also think the Iginla / Jokinen duo will get split up (at ES) so the team is harder to defend against. The logic here being that other than team defence, Sutter’s overriding phiolosophy appears to be balance. He is clearly trying to roll four lines throughout the game. This leaves Iggy playing less and he is clearly struggling – perhaps because he is used to being a workhorse. However, he will round into form like he does every year (last year not as much) – the slow start being an annual phenomenon I have come to accept. If they can achieve a decent playoff seed without burning out all the top players then they might have a relatively fresh squad in April (unlike last year to say the least) – the four line strategy has been well honed by Detroit and other good teams given the marathon nature of any cup drive.
Kipper + the bounces
Kipper has probably done his part, but let’s not over look sheer dumb luck…a lot of pucks have been finding the back of the net for Calgary in the first two games. In fact, the Flames won the game in Edmonton because of two really lucky breaks: the Dawes/Smid deflection and the Khabibulin miscue. It also helped that O’Sullivan shot about a half dozen glorious chances wide.
The hockey gods are being kind to the Flames and I think they owe us few for the end of the regular season last year…but I’d really prefer the team get into shape sooner rather than later.
Once again – nicely summarized by KW.
Those two games could’ve gone either way – you could feel the game against V completely slipping away in the third … and I don’t need to parrot everyone else about the Edmonton game.
Two different outcomes and these posts would be be quite different. It’s almost like when Kipper initially came to Calgary … he stole a lot of close games that could’ve gone either way, and he was standing on his head on a nightly basis. But we have more depth than back then – and the expectations are higher. This Is Now. “You’re best players have to be your best players”. The 4th line success is great to see, but it cannot be relied on over a full season to carry the offensive load. Let’s see how Sutter tweaks as the season progresses. *It will be interesting to hear Keenan’s spin on OTR today. Notice I said “spin” lol.
by Calgarian in SJ on Oct 5, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey Kent, did you do the scoring chance count for this game? Dennis has it at 13-13 at evens at 6-3 in favor of the Oil at special teams. Not bad at all considering we only spent half as much time on the PP – although I think we still got dominated territorially.
Not yet
I plan to go through the two games I have recorded this week. That sounds close, although I’m somewhat surprised the Flames were eve at 5on5 by Dennis’ count. I think more interesting will be the individual +/- rates.
McElhinney Watch
This isn’t terribly on topic, but I can’t do a fan post from mobile. When do you think we see McE? I know it isn’t the best circumstances, but I think friday against Dallas. My friend thinks tomorrow against Montreal and I think that is unlikely. I really hope Butter doesn’t wait until Columbus because that would be no different than the bs Keenan pulled. Any other guesses when we see him first?
by CalTach on Oct 5, 2009 1:42 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
first back to back of the year is thursday(edm)/friday(dallas). personally, i’d like to see cumac in the first game (when the team is fresh and can help the poor guy out) and kipper in the second (when the team is tired and kipps can try to steal one). this is something keenan never did even once last year and seems so…. OBVIOUS to me.
by walkinvisible on Oct 5, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Kirpusoff plays until he cools off
What Keenan did was go with the hot goalie-Kirpusoff can be the best in the league for several games and then wham! Its weird, he has one bad game-shakes it off and is steady again and then hot. He’s as cool as a cucumber. McE usually played a portion of a game after Kirpusoff was yanked in Keenan’s reign. I really don’t know if he can start and win a game-I think he’s only done it once-he deserves some playing time-after Kirpusoff cools off? I’d say give McE a game on the road every road trip and a couple at home. Maybe Keenan looked at Kirpusoff’s salary and thought-make him earn it-something I might do when a player makes 70,000 a game.
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